If the ailing banks continue to ask for more and more capital to pump to bail them out of these financial woes, the investors must come to realise that this pit is a bottomless pit that will pull them down deeper and deeper. These banks are reputable but questionable? My parents taught me from young – NEVER TAKE ADVANTAGE AT THE EXPENSE OF OTHERS. Does this apply to the business world??? Does this apply to our Government???

Please tell me, if half of our foreign reserves were to be lost , what would our dollar be worth then? Will we have to pay more for our mortgages? Will inflation hit the roof? I’m so worried. Maybe, maybe we should give more support to the MM, SM, PM, DPM & MS.Ho, what do you think? Oh! I forgot Mah Bow Tan. You know whatever portfolio he holds, he always make money, I think he should assist Ms.Ho in Temasek. Thank you.

Interesting food for thought. AT might have played up the part on CIC & GIC getting conned. But the lack of due diligence is frightening. Throwing good money after bad? My parents always cautioned there won’t be big frogs all over town for you to grab – good things aren’t easily available. If there is ever to be a turnaround, it will be a long time waiting. Good luck everybody!

Someone probably thought that he was in a priviledged position to be invited to invest in Merrill Lynch and the other financial institutions. Ever the egoistic and self-proclaimed man of helicopter vision, he proudly authorised these multi-billion investments as though Singapore has a few trillions of reserves.

When his investment foolishness became obvious, he put on a brave face and proclaimed that if needed, he will put in more billions into those banks. He is prepared to wait for 5, 10 and even up to 30 years to see them bear fruits. This is totally absurb and ridiculous (not surprising though), coming from a man who believes he is above all others.

Any sane person would realise an anomaly that the oil rich countries did not see fit to put more money in those banks even with their torrential oil wealth. Not even investment gurus like Warren Buffet and others deem it viable to put investors’ money in those banks. Strange? Puzzling? Suspicious? Unfathomable?

The Chinese government (Saudi Arabia/UAE as well) probably realised by now that they had wrongly followed the footsteps of GIC and Temasek into those sinking submarines.

Be prepared for more multi-billion write-downs in the coming months as the US enters deeper into recession.

I think it is meaningless for people without economic and financial expertise, like us, to judge whether it is a sound investment.

Sorry, but I think that the argument in the article is simply not strong enough to conclude that the investment decision is bad one over a longer term. I do not have indisputable evidences that it is good either. But I want to say that it’s simply impossible for non-experts to judge, and I prefer to withhold judgments.

I sense that the main dissatisfaction of point of Adrian is that he does not like the government to invest funds in which he possibly has a contribution.

But that’s an entirely a different question altogether on how sovereign funds should be utilized, and this issue not specific to Singapore only.

“I think it is meaningless for people without economic and financial expertise, like us, to judge whether it is a sound investment.”

Even you ask a financial expert, they will tell you the same thing. It is a gamble. Whatever condition they put to hedge the risk is no excuses for gambling. There is only a Win and Lose in term of $$$.

Question is why are the government gambling on frailing banks and not on citizens, and why government gambling on building images and not on substances ? Why not treat the citizen better instead rather than treating them as economicial slave ? You can gamble billions on foreign bank and companies but not on Citizen ? Get the equation right.

If the equation Singapore = PAP = LKY is so true yesterday and of today,
the equation Government = Temasek = GIC = LKY should just be convincing.

Now how capable did you find our government then who has use MSM as mouthpiece and taxmoney for propaganda ?

“Sorry, but I think that the argument in the article is simply not strong enough to conclude that the investment decision is bad one over a longer term. ”
Define long term, a 100 years is also a longer term, just enough for Singaporean to died and bury the loss. Have you ever come across a project that who deadline is LONGER TERM with no concrete date ?

Dear rafi,

Please allow me to ask you this question. No intention of insult. Are you a native Singaporean? Your 3rd sentence seemed to imply that you are probably not a native. If you are not I rest my case and please ignore the preceding.

If you are then I would like to response to your following:

“I think it is meaningless for people without economic and financial expertise, like us, to judge whether it is a sound investment.”

1) Who’s us? Are you commenting on our behalf?
2) What makes you think that none of us who commented in this blog do not have economic or financial experitse?

“Sorry, but I think that the argument in the article is simply not strong enough to conclude that the investment decision is bad one over a longer term. I do not have indisputable evidences that it is good either.”

Doesn’t this say something to you? So much for accountability and transparency. Agree? Don’t you think Singaporeans have the right to know where the investment returns are used (if there are any?).

There is a greater foolishness in rafi’s comment. When a man says I will not assume I can understand this then what can he do but accept what others tell him. But why are you so sure that this is beyond your understanding? Who has convinced you that you are so weak minded and incapable? And why do you try to convince others also that they are weak minded and should leave the thinking to others? If you think knowledge or information is needed to understand then read – it is all there on the internet. Why bow in reverence to others while you confess it is all beyond you? And yes, do not assume others have not already read and are speaking out of ignorance.

Call this “ignorance is bliss”. Why does rafi chose to believe in the and not exercise his analytical abilities and make use of resources available to make up his own mind. It is too presumptious to assert that none of us have the financial expertise to comment. In any case, this is not rocket science that is beyond the reach of most educated intellectuals. What has happened to accountability? I guess it odes not apply across the board. Citizens have a right to know and comment just like shareholders of a company.

I am a Singaporean born and raised in here. I consider myself literate and fairly financial savvy, although not qualified enough to be a professional in the economic or financial sector, such as a professor or a fund manager (which does not include financial consultants).

My main points are:

(1) It is hard to tell if this investment is a worthwhile one. I do not mean that this is necessarily a good one. I mean non-financial experts (as defined above) do not have the ability to judge.

Consider Warren Buffet who buys undervalued companies which can be underperforming but grow in value over time. At the same time, history has shown that there aren’t many Warren Buffets around – on the whole, most fund managers fail perform consistently over time. In other words, it is possible for an investment (made by financial experts) which has low value to perform well or not in the longer run. (One could question Buffet’s wealth as transient, but that’s nitpicking.) Investments are not a one-sided story. On the other hand, research has shown that the economy as a whole (not specific investment decision) is not random over the long run. Market indices increase over time, like 30 years. Valuation of specific investments or sectors, as far as I know, still remains controversial.

I assume most readers here do not qualify as economic or financial expert (including me). Therefore, this makes us even harder to valuate the investments, for example the current one made by the Singaporean government, so hard to the extent that any comments become speculative.

(2) What I feel is that many people are angry because (a) the investment is currently not doing well, (b) they have a stake in the investment, and (c) they are not involved in the decision-making process.

Assuming that if one accepts a bad investment decision if it’s made by oneself, then the key issues are (b) and (c), i.e. how should sovereign wealth should be managed. This is a political question, not a financial one.

Read sometime ago, (cant remember when, sorry but its definitely in teh ST, a very small, obscure column) that Temasek is starting to sell its shares in Shin Corp at a 60% loss. if this is true, then there’s no more need for us to debate on whether we can/should or should not /cannot judge Temasek’s investment ability. just remember the robust defence of its choice to invest in shin corp and all the attendant legal issues in Thailand (which alot of it was not discussed in ST) and fortune 500’s conclusion that shin corp was Ho ching’s biggest mistake; they labeled it a spectacular failure which the ST ignored. i recall this issue was even defended at parliament level saying its a gd and legit investment.

if this bit of recent history serves us any use, it is to tell us that money has been lost through bad investments and the bad decision defended without accountability. period. no more need to argue whether we are qualified to assess or not or say things like ‘we shouldn’t comment since we dont know about investments’ when it is so pointedly obvious that money has been lost. our money. lost in front of our eyes.

Dear rafi,

Noted your points and as a matter of fact you have already had the answers on top of your head but I think you refuses to believe in your judgment perhaps for unknown reasons. You are 100% accurate to say the there aren’t many Warren Buffet and even he with such proven track records make mistakes. No doubt about. But as far as accountability and transparency to his share holders is concerned, he is on top of the game.

I am not going to make further comments on your personal assumptions on the qualification of individual commenter. It is your right as an individual.

However, I believe the majority of us here are reasonable and rational thinking people. Widely read and traveled, worked in different parts of the world in different professions including in well known financial institutions. Some of us here had weathered through the thick and thin of our nation building process and have seen enough to share their wisdom. We understand the risk involved in investments. We are not here to question how the SF is managed. We assumed that our custodian’s intentions are to increase the asset value. The bigger question is how much accountability and transparency is there for us to see as citizenry who as a matter of fact are indeed the shareholders of such investments (as these SF part of it are through our “CPF” contributions).

Any ordinary folks who took an interest in investing will know that you will receive an annual report including dividends (if any) of the listed company they invested even if you had just invested a single lot. So if GIC and Temasek are using the SF to invest on our behalf, don’t you think you have the right to know? Unless the government (declare publicly and in writing) is not using any part of our CPF (which legally that is our money, every individual working Singaporean), then I will rest my case. So do we have such information publicised? You be your judge.

I can understand the sensitivity of completely disclosing investment strategy, but I personally (and I truly believe most will share my sentiment) cannot accept little accountability and transparency on the returns and its appropriate use if the CPF funds are tapped as part of the SF for their investments.

Speaking of CPF, for your information, Hong Kong had a similar provident fund scheme call MPF launch in 2000. You know what, the Hong Kong government cannot touch any part of this MPF and it is within our own (each working individual and holder) means to select which kind of investments they desire for the best return. Strange isn’t it?

Dear Rafi,

This is for you Rafi !

To me – the issue is NOT about the merits and demerits of the investments. To me the issue is one of values and priorities.

Why is it that the Government REFUSES to help the lower and middle income groups with some subsidies in this time of hardship – but yet – the Government is completely willing to risk losing billions of dollars of public money in risky and controversial investments ??

What does it say about how they view the little man ?

One more thing to all you people – I am beginning to dislike the idea of a meritocracy based entirely on a materialistic definition of merit. It now seems to me that merit must include a spiritual, moral and ethical dimension. So what constitutes success ? The 5 C’s but no ethics and morals ?? I don’t buy that anymore…..

Read and learn, man, read and learn. I personally am very enlightened by O SGHK and Dr. Alwi. I hope you guys will too.

rafi,
You are confusing the issue.
“This is a political question, not a financial one.” It is not a political issue but a commercial issue, hence a financial one and that is what Temasek and GIC and those ministers supporting the investment says. For example, investing in ShinCorpse is a purely commerical one, did you not recall those remark by some officials ?

It doesn’t take someone with financial expert to detect another financial expert is incompetent and inept. All we need to do is judge the track record and performance over the years. If so-called financial expert keep losing money for company then it it is incompetent. Don’t make it complicated. Result speak for itself, others are just excuses. Our dear government has the advantages of using creative accounting and MSM to do coverup and mellow the impact. Are we still living in the dark age not knowing that all along ?

It is not that we are born yesterday, are we ?

Hi,

I am not sure if anyone here knows the answer to my question.

Under what circumstance(s) will the people know , if that is possible at all?

Assuming under no circumstance, what happens after people have ‘moved on’?
Who receives the information from those who ‘moved on’ ?

After say, 20 years, who knows for sure what happened?

Just curious lah.

Please , there is no need to track my IP.

I am just an innocent , poor student, but I hear voices asking me voice up.

Sad.

I’ll start with a ROI view. It’s not hard to imagine that to someone, 5 years is too long, and to another 10 years is too short.

(a) I have nothing against financial and economics folks on the bandwagon for assessments. Given the magnitude of investment, I will argue that it’s not just about business analyses, scenario plannings, number crunching style. It’s also about understanding the organisation how it functions. The reason is because the numbers should only be as good as the business contexts they represent.

(b) In order for anyone to understand the organisation, then planning cannot be done by merely by sitting in the office. You can have intelligent sources, you can have a team of people inside the organisation, not necessarily confined to executive board level, you can run an audit, at regulatory, process, and financial levels, etc. Alternatively contractual risk safeguards against downsides (which I think we have put some), but it cannot be pure planning in the office. I consider these as mechanics.

(c) At the end of the day, mechanics are only mechanics unless they deliver results. You also have people (includes public) with different ‘tolerance levels’ on what timeframe they are prepared to wait before the investments bear fruit. So we have a strange situation when it comes to accountability. We have investment gurus who say it’s a long term investment, without being able (and the need) to demonstrate results at present, and yet are loading the salary (and perhaps benefits) OPEX (operating expenses) with their renumerations. Alongside with different views on timeframe, comes the level of trust.

I am a proponent of ‘earned trust’ (not a trust system built largely on what has been done years back).
You may be able to get a certain level of dissonance down, if say, you peg the renumerations :
(a) of the investment folks against when the investments bear fruit, with a clear skew towards long term returns.
(b) of an individual, who is a key decision maker, such that a portion of renumeration is only awarded (or not awarded) subject to independent audit findings.
Unless my understanding is wrong, I don’t think this is practised.

Well, China’s banks made much money for Singapore. It is good to retreat from China now as it had been done.
But America, EU and the West ? Are there not good enough historians to advice, good enough economists ? good enough people with just plain common sense to know that the deals with Citi, UBS, and ML are all traps…………………………………………..

America is borrowing from China to buy ME oil.

Singapore is spending good money made from China…..maybe the money was deemed to be easily made.

I pray that the red dot is not going on ego trips.

/// 5) rafi on July 30th, 2008 10.58 pm

I think it is meaningless for people without economic and financial expertise, like us, to judge whether it is a sound investment. ///

rafi – why are you assuming everyone here has no economic and financial expertise? I have both. And I am in this industry decades longer than some expired generals with absolutely no financial background being parachuted to manage our investments…

Dear T,

I am glad that you are a seasoned investments guy/gal ! What is your take on this deal ? And what do you think of our GIC & Temasek investments ?

Dear Ravi,

Just for you.

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN3062269120080731

Hot from t he stove. And this is just one part of the story. Following up my previous response, yes, in investment, regardless of how good a FM you are, somehow, somewhere in time, mistakes are made. We can accept that. But if one too many mistakes? That is just hogwash and I deemed that as reckless gambling. Remember Nick? They are worse than him in terms of the investment value at stakes.

Oh yes, long term is the word (30 years perhaps). They hope the economy will recover soon enough for ML to rebound its’ stock price to a level they can get out or even make a profit. Don’t bet on it. The recession is just in its beginning stage. They will probably sink in more funds to average out the lost and hoping it will have a technical rebound in its stock prices in short term basis. If this is the case we expected, it is hardly any expertise in it. This is just purely based on probability (as long as you have enough funds to play with and provided this institute do not fold completely, but there is no guaranteed that will not happen even for a 1.6 trillion company).

Dr Syed Alwi,

I thinks we jumped in too early – but then again, I am a nobody and my views carry zero weight. I can only point out that Warren Buffet wasn’t in a hurry to bail out the FIs that were in trouble. Also, the investment guru Jim Rogers was spot on (and that was not due to hind sight – his comments was published when the initial investments were made).

http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?t=1888119

Maybe you should spend more time on the Malaysian sites – more interesting and your defence of Singapore is interesting. Was quietly egging you on when you took on your detractors…

Dear T,

I am glad that you support my views in the debates I had on the Malaysian sites !

You guys are simply too emotional. So emotional that even an indexing investment plan won’t work for you.

Regardless of whether previous investments were right or whether the current investment is a good one (I do not claim that the current investment is a good one. I merely believe that it is impossible to conclude), what is relevant is discussing how sovereign funds should be managed (to keep people happy) not valuating an investment – a political question.

I don’t expect all of you to agree. All I ask for is for you to see my point.

If I have made your day a bad one, I apologize: Sorry.

rafi ,
“what is relevant is discussing how sovereign funds should be managed (to keep people happy) not valuating an investment – a political question.”

You seem to repeating the question. Aren’t Dr Syed Alwi and many others comment that accountability and transparency to public are the keys to management of sovereign funds ? Such a basic thing they can’t even do and disclose, what there to suggest ? Surely you remember the pinkish clown says even his MPs don’t even understand government policies and decision, let alone question it.

The government can stop the bull of saying that it is secretive act when other free press report the loss and deal. Damn the MSM, damn the ST under the excuse of nation building.

Come on, ask for basic thing from the government before suggest how to manage the fund least the government says that you are too ignorant of what going on to suggest a soluiton.

I don’t think this issue is new at all, and it has been discussed many time before in this site.

“You guys are simply too emotional. So emotional that even an indexing investment plan won’t work for you.”

Anyone that bother about their future should be emotional. You talking about our hard-earned money in the form of CPF that is been manipulated, and you are talking about reserve that many remain doubtful. You are talking exploitation just like exPresident Ong has uncovered. Pathetic that today, there is no even a ministers and prataman dare raise any issues that displease the old fart ?

Maybe you are rich and wealthy and probably doesn’t care less, unfortunately many in Singapore are not. They living under a image of success, not substance of success.

There is nothing to suggest if the government’s mentality is still harbouring the mindset of WE KNOW BEST.

/// 24) rafi on August 1st, 2008 8.01 am
You guys are simply too emotional. ///

For once, I agree with you. One shouldn’t get emotional, especially when making investment decisions. So, what do you suggest we do? In the commercial world in the private sector, those fund managers who made such disastrous investment decisions would be booted out long ago, without emotions I should add, on 24-hour notice. They want to be paid millions like the private sector, yet without the market discipline of the private sector. This is not only having the cake and eat it, but having the cake after eating it again and again.

rafi – would you agree that those who don’t perform should be sacked without getting too emotional about it?

T ,
the worst thing that happen is that government is not emotional over the investment loss, and keep having high hope and pretending thing is still okay. Is that a blind hope or foolishness ? Recent freeze of construction projects where Malboro Ma can’t even give a good answer to a reporter tells you something of how investment loss ripple through Singapore.

Cognitive dissonance?

Daniel, yes, I know where you are coming from. I was just being sarcastic and teasing rafi about his own emotional outburst. Really, do you expect them to be emotional over the investment loss at all? When there are platinum rice bowls? When you can sit and wait 30 years to see them turn around? If I were them, I will go on a 29-year round the world, not make that round the galaxy, tour.

:)

TOC team all going for a break of several days all together ??!!!????????

Wow, they must be onto something!

Time to Harvest the ‘INTELLIGENCE’ ?

IP 123.120.123.122 >>>> sector1
IP 838.222.222.111 >>>> sector2
IP …..
:
:
IP 273.244.534.121 >>> sector 66.6

Now, can know where are the Pros and Cons….

Okie…. time to draw the borderies….

maybe can bring it forward….

disclaimer : above is my nightmare.

> rafi – would you agree that those who don’t perform should be sacked without getting too emotional about it?

This is what I mean that should be the main point of discussion — administration of national wealth.

To answer your question from my perspective: Of course, as long as there is a better replacement. No, if there isn’t.

What I was really referring to about the effect of emotion on investment is this: market indices are found to rise over the long run, like 30 years or more. If one could hold on to them in bad times when the value could depreciate by as much as 30 percent, it is sure way to achieve above average returns in the long run (provide transaction and management costs are low). People who are emotional, however, tend to let the investments off at bad times, and therefore, missing out the returns in the long run. Such emotional moves are not wrong. It simply means that the investment vehicle does not match their risk appetite and investment time horizon.

BTW, on the separate topic of valuing the current investment: Of course, the sort of investment GIC/Temesek is making now is different from indexing: the bank is not a broad market index. However, is it not totally unreasonable to believe that big banks are undervalued at bad times like this (although it may not be the bottom yet). The current views are mixed:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/temaseks-growing-merrill-stake-trigger/story.aspx?guid={7630066D-A754-4203-9BA1-5D95F66BAAC7}&dist=msr_2

In fact, the banks are also approaching sovereign funds, other than Singapore and China, and they are actually also considering the offer.

T, why do you have to be sarcastic? Daniel, why do you want to use words like “old fart”?

Just curious, are replies moderated? I wrote a very long reply and there is no error when I submitted, but the post didn’t appear.

Cunspiracey story, what are you talking about? Can you share with us?

Just curious, are replies moderated? I posted something just now but it didn’t appear.

Cunspiracey story, what are you talking about? Can you share with all of us?

> rafi – would you agree that those who don’t perform should be sacked without getting too emotional about it?

This is what I mean: the topic of administration of sovereign wealth, not valuation of investment, is more relevant.

To answer your question: Of course, as long as there is a better replacement. No, if there isn’t.

However, I don’t associate short-term loss with failure. What I really mean by the emotion impact on indexing is this: Market indices rise in the long run, say 30 years or more, and so is a guarantee way to obtain slightly above average returns. But it can depreciate as much as 30 percent in five consecutive years. If one is emotional to sell the investments off, then one will miss out the investment in the long run. Such emotions on investment is not wrong. It merely means that the indexing investing vehicle is not suited to the investor.

Sidetracking on valuating the current investment by GIC/Temesek. It is not unreasonable to believe that the bank is undervalued now (although not at its bottom yet), so this investment could be a good opportunity not available to the public or even many private equity.
(In fact, the troubled banks are not only seeking Singapore and China sovereign funds but also several others, and they are also actually considering the offer.) Having said that, the current views are still mixed, and it’s hard to tell if it’s a right decision:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/temaseks-growing-merrill-stake-trigger/story.aspx?guid={7630066D-A754-4203-9BA1-5D95F66BAAC7}&dist=msr_2

T, why do you want to be sarcastic? Daniel, why do you have to use words like “old fart”?

Dear rafi,

Emotional? Hardly any. Your message did not cause the stir, don’t worry about it. This site advocates freedom of expression and views. Nobody here is getting emotional. We are just trying to make sense of why these so-called expertise can make such dumb moves. Do not forget, ML investments occurred only Dec of 2007 and subsequently Jan 2008 (some 12.8bln worth within 2 months). I believe you know ML’s valuation today right? Compared to say December 2007? How long was that ago? No more than 7 months. Wow! 60% just puff!!! And we are told we need to see the long term outlook and have to wait for Nyears to see the turn around. Don’t be too short-sighted. Wow, real ‘smarty’ high paying investment gurus indeed.

Here’s a summary of write-downs of those institutions and banks since the credit crunch (courtesy of Reuters).

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServices%20-%20Diversified/idUSL06434420080730

Note: the top 3. Just the top 3 losers will do. Ring a bell? No? Coincidentally, those top three losers (and counting), our SF is in it. Big time too! Not enough to warrant for more accountability and transparency? Please think again.

And you know what? the game is not over yet (for Merrill Lynch). Their rating had been down graded as well. Obviously, we do not mean ill for ML, we too hope they will recover (my assumption (or you say speculation) optimistically say within the next 3 years? Give and take the recession will be quick and over with within end of 2009 and recovery at beginning of 2010). But, the hope is frail.

Meanwhile, be kind and please join us in asking the government to help the poor and needy, they are your fellow citizens too, right? They do not have that long a time to wait. I believe the government can do much more than what they are doing now.

rafi
- because you are the one who is emotional
- because you keep shifting your position
- what happen to your point that people without finance or economics should not comment
- do you think Warren Buffet and Jim Rogers have the expertise – or do you think they are talking cock?

Yeah I agree with the view that purports that the government is more willing to lose billions of our money (not even theirs) while when it comes to dishing out subsidies to help the lowest income bracket, they say no. If not, they give a pathetic sum of like $300 to help them while they are allowed to draw at the rate of $10000 a day! Had each of these well fed ministers part 30% of their pay and channel these funds to the needy , it would have been a substantial help.

At times i wonder if the government had been too detached with the people and they are in a would of their own. Sad citizens. And to make matters worse, we had the mainstream media who are puppets of the government.

You respect those who respect the citizen. Calling the old man old fart is considered gracious to him. For a leader who doesn’t matter if he is founder or not of Singapore that continue to insult the intelligence and dignity of the citizen, he should deserve a lot worse. To build a overly pragmatic, calculative and soulless society thank to the old man, we should give him lot worse name. Instead of building a nation, old man run everything as corporation and telling us no free lunch. The culture of Singapore is such because of the people on top exemplify it. Keeping themselves in power even though the ministers and MPs play safe when they suppose to speak for the people. Look like All elite men to themselves. Thank to the old man too that instead of doing what right, the ministers and MP so fear the oldman that affect the running of the government. to know that this old man and his family are the one truly benefit from his own law and policies is what made people feel sickening.

Do stop emphasizing that these are long term 30 years investment. You seem to twist the focus. It is nothing wrong investing in 30 years plan or whatever, the main problem lies with the people in Temasek and GIC. They are arrogant, ineptness and repeat honest mistake over and over again, rule by greed. Gambling us with large sum of money that is not theirs. Ask the ministers themselve to place their salary in Temasek’s investment up to 30 years, and do you think they do that ? It so worse that even the US press try to put good words to mellow those loss of Singapore.

Now assuming that Temasek is a true private entity totally unrelated to government , will you even trust your fund into this company ?

Just a little more information. This is an example of what a good deal should look like.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUKN2936724320080729

Braise for more write downs from Citi, MorganS since ML had set the precedence.

the goverment and ministers is rushing for a meeting they dont care about all this want lah only they care for themself only opposition party can fight for us to survive we must care for ourself if u really and serious care for yourself and help yourself and enjoy lifes pls vote for oppositions party although we are not handicapped ,or very poor or bankrupt we all have a common we must end unspeakable suffering we are the common peoples having the same problems we want to earn a living what can we do? influence by moneys not enough 2

“35) rafi on August 1st, 2008 11.19 am
However, I don’t associate short-term loss with failure. What I really mean by the emotion impact on indexing is this: Market indices rise in the long run, say 30 years or more, and so is a guarantee way to obtain slightly above average returns”

How long is long. 5 weeks, 5 mths or 30, 40, 50, 60 years ? Subjective lah. But it is cold comfort lah as we may be the ones having to foot the cost now which may (emphasis intended) only have positve returns many many years down the road, if there are indeed positive returns.

There is a saying lah. Better that me do the betting (investment) myself instead of you doing the betting on my behalf. At least, there is no one to blame but myself if the betting turns out to be bad.

Aiyah, why should I even need to listen to your rationale of whether it is justifiable for you to do the investment on my behalf. You do it with your own money lah, who cares. Me simple mind lah always think short to mid term as far as investment is concerned, not long term like 30 years. Just imagine over the last years, how many times the rules have changed for CPF and HDB.

Correction

Just imagine over the last 10 years, how many times the rules have changed for CPF and HDB.

singaporeans are alway like that since they knew they were right why not fight for it to gain many more moneys it the peoples that have the final say

For those who think we should not questions the investments. Here’s a dose of reality. If you want to be paid as equal to private entity, this is what happen when things fall apart. And it is more. Have a look at this and you be your judge.

http://www.youtube.com/v/TeWJZiJGc2s&hl=en&fs=1

How safe is our CPF money with the CPF Board? We know that under the Deposit Insurance Scheme, each customer is protected with S$20,000.00 back should a bank folds up. Our savings with CPF Board are far more than S$20,000 and the money we have with the Board cannot be withdrawn until we grow old. I wonder what the Board uses the money for? What kind of investments?

To Singaporespirit,

I read here in HK a few years back, albeit from a blog so cannot really confirm it, that the overall returns from the CPF has been close to zero in nearly the last 20 years, taking into account inflation etc. it was written by a HK-based former investment banker, who’s semi-retired.

What the Board invests on? i also read many years back that most of it are invested on treasury bills, bonds etc – investment instruments that of little risk, but gives more stable long term returns. but i cannot confirm this too.

I also read that CPF money, and the way they’re invested, is separate from GIC and from Temasek. i also cannot confirm this.

I believe our savings are protected. The only problem is – it becomes more and more difficult to get to our own money now, what with the extension of the withdrawal age and the “op out” clause for buying insurance.

You might want to check the CPF Board’s website…they may publish annual reports and all that. I, however, will only accept if the numbers are prepared by a third-party firm.

Hi Rafi,

yes, it happened to me as well.

I told TOC in a comment I left.

I am not sure but there are many tools for website administration, if you know what i mean. ;)

net neutrality. I wish.

To Aygee
With the subprime crisis and credit crisis that brought the near collapse of America’s financial system, one must even be more careful and weary about his/her financial portfolio and retirement nest-egg.
American’s 401(k) as I understand is somewhat like our CPF scheme, but the Americans are expressing they have incurred great losses and would have to put off their retirement plan further and have to continue to work longer.
What is happening in America could happen here too. Many of us emulate the American way of life; obviously the chasing of 5 Cs is not shattered as it seems.
Thanks for sharing that my CPF money with the Board is safe.

It has been some time i commented on all these billion dollars investment. I shall say again. As sick as the last time, this time more sickening.

ML’s clause states that they will return USD$2.5B back to Temasek if new shares are issued. At the initial share buy, TMSK has 9.++% stack in ML which cost USD$5B at $48/share. Do your maths and you will see how stupid is TMSK, now the share at the new offering was $24 if they sell now at most half of $2.5B, yet the clause gives TMSK a good deal by returning them $2.5B cold hard cash and they still keep 4% stake but have a good chance to get out of toxic banks with some ready cash of $2.5B for better investment. You see when EGOS are at stake and not bruised enough like the case of SHIN CORP(they getting out) they never never learned their lesson. Such stupid experts from TMSK will throw in good money after bad and keep doing them. HOJINX really is JINXed. Adding more taxpayer’s money USD$1B into the toxic ML is a BAD BAD MOVE. Now not only we can forget about the previous $5B we got ourselves into we need to include a $1B more to worry. US is sinking into recession anytime now. ML ’s write down is not finished yet and more is to come. The historic mark down price of the CDO debts they sold to a company is in turn financed by themselves just to do creative balance sheet beautification. The trouble is not over yet. Homes in US are dropping like bird shit, there is no bottom to talk about. Therefore more billions write down is on the way for all banks including ML ” Third largest Investment Bank in World, i say so what?”.

FG

A very timely article.
Actually all are trying to get better things for Singapore. It is a very complicated process but certain things are not to be said; years ago SIA used to purchase Boeings……………and then there was a theory – a school of thought like using buying power for strategic gains.
So we are all strangers in the nite – let us be gracious and let the “professionals “do their job.
Adrian’s post will have good ears and to me it is good enough; thank you TOC.

[...] Hear the thundering herds and sniff the wind : The Online Citizen [...]

I wonder.

Starting with Micropolis’ losses of S$750-million.

Shin Corp losses of …60%..maybe S$1-bilion???

Now all thsoe paper losses of US$10-billion or more?

if ho Ching is CEO for the next 30-years, in 2038, can all her investments generate enough returns to cover all those losses…say US$12-billion?

And basing on 10-year Govenrment Bonds 3.17% returns, if the presentn US$12-billions losses are ploughed into SIngapore Government 10-year Bonds with 3.17% returns, by 2038, how much will this US$12-billion losses be worth?

Can Ho Ching’s Temasek Holdings generate enough returns to cover these losses + accured interests + historical Temasek Holdings compunded returns averaging 18% over a 30-year period?

This is the emnaing of looking long term.

“if ho Ching is CEO for the next 30-years, in 2038, can all her investments generate enough returns to cover all those losses…say US$12-billion?

And basing on 10-year Govenrment Bonds 3.17% returns, if the presentn US$12-billions losses are ploughed into SIngapore Government 10-year Bonds with 3.17% returns, by 2038, how much will this US$12-billion losses be worth?

Can Ho Ching’s Temasek Holdings generate enough returns to cover these losses + accured interests + historical Temasek Holdings compunded returns averaging 18% over a 30-year period?”

Of course, the government has been losing massive amount of money and keep mum about it. You don’t need evidence to do that. The behaviour of government speak likewise. Given that government like to brag so much how good they are and find ways to promote themselves so high, why is it that if they are indeed making money in investment and they not are singing it ? If gahmen are prudent about the investment, don’t you think more quality investors will come to Singapore ?

Now the Wise Old Man said that PAP Government managed to grow from S$100-million to $300-billion or 3,000 times from 1959 to 2008, or 49 years period.

Which corporation has managed this feat – IBM, GE, Microsoft, ST Technology under Ho Ching?