Tuesday, July 29, 2008 18:28

Merrill Lynch

In Top Story • 2,912 views • 69 Comments

Apology: We apologise for removing Tan Kin Lian’s piece on “Business ethics” posted earlier today. It will be published at a later date.

The following are excerpts from various news report on the latest happenings at US investment bank, Merrill Lynch. Singapore’s state-linked investment firm Temasek Holdings is its largest shareholder.

Forbes

Temasek agreed in December to invest up to $5 billion for a 10% stake in Merrill Lynch at $48 per share. Since then, more than 50% of the market value of Merrill Lynch has evaporated, to the present level of $25 a share, from more than $55 a share just before the new year.

Temasek was savvy enough to have negotiated protection against equity dilution when it concluded the previous deal: under the terms of the agreement, Merrill Lynch must compensate the Singaporean wealth fund if it raises new capital at a lower price in the future. Still, Temasek is still at risk of booking loss if the share price of Merrill Lynch dives further.

Bloomberg

In yesterday’s statement, Merrill said it agreed to sell $30.6 billion of collateralized debt obligations — the mortgage- related bonds that have caused most of the firm’s losses — for $6.7 billion. The buyer is an affiliate of Lone Star Funds, a Dallas-based investment manager.

Merrill has lost almost 55 percent of market value this year. Only Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. has fallen more on the 11- member Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index, dropping 77 percent. Merrill fell 12 percent yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

AFP

Singapore’s state-linked investment firm Temasek Holdings, the largest shareholder in troubled US investment bank Merrill Lynch, confirmed on Tuesday it was increasing its stake.

Merrill Lynch announced Monday it was dumping billions of dollars of mortgage debt at a steep loss and raising 8.5 billion in new capital, including the 3.4 billion from Temasek.

The announcement came after Merrill on July 17 posted a net loss of 4.89 billion dollars for the second quarter.

Temasek had already committed in December to injecting 4.4 billion dollars, which it could increase by another 600 million dollars, into Merrill Lynch.

That initial investment came with a requirement that if Merrill raised more capital within 12 months at a price lower that the 48 dollars per share that the Singapore fund paid, it would be compensated for the difference.

The Singapore firm is putting that 2.5 billion back into Merrill, along with another 900 million dollars.

Associated Press

The world’s largest brokerage says the sales will trigger a third-quarter write-down of $5.7 billion, but plans to raise $8.5 billion in new capital through a public offering. Temasek Holdings, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, will purchase $3.4 billion of common stock as part of the deal.

Forbes

Following a session in which the Dow fell 277 points, Merrill Lynch said Monday it will take a $5.7 billion third-quarter write-down on bad debts, and will raise $8.5 billion by selling new stock, a $3.5 billion chunk of which will be bought by the Singaporean state investment firm Temasek. (See “Merrill Moves To Shore Up Books”)

The move shook confidence in the banking sector, rekindling fears that the credit crisis that has gripped the world for the past year has more to run. It followed an announcement earlier in the day from Australia’s ANZ that it would write down more than $1 billion in credit-related losses.

The Independent

Merrill Lynch, the investment banking giant that has lost more than $40bn (£20.1bn) on its mortgage investments since the start of the credit crisis, shocked Wall Street last night with plans to raise $8.5bn in new shares.

As part of a sweeping financial restructuring, the company is dumping most of its remaining holdings in risky mortgage derivatives and tapping the Singapore government for an emergency $3.4bn cash infusion.

The news of Merrill’s financial restructuring came after a day of mounting rumours it was facing new writedowns, just 11 days after it had posted its last results, containing a bigger-than-expected $9.4bn of writedowns. Its shares sunk 12 per cent to their lowest close in almost 10 years.

Reuters

Temasek will plough that money, plus another $900 million, back into new Merrill stock, potentially increasing the state-run fund’s stake in one of the best-known U.S. banks to more than 10 percent.

The fund had been facing huge paper losses on its initial investment in Merrill at $48 per share as banking stocks slid this year amid writedowns on risky debt.

The rebate, announced less than two weeks after Merrill posted a $4.9 billion second-quarter loss, effectively reduces the cost of Temasek’s existing shares in the U.S. bank by more than half to $21 a share, according to Reuters calculations.

Neither Merrill nor Temasek disclosed the price at which the new Merrill shares would be offered.

————–
Merrill’s malaise
Financial Times

Witching hour ought to be moved forward from midnight to early evening in New York. These days, the few hours after the market’s official close all too often play host to announcements of profit warnings, bank failures and writedowns. Merrill Lynch added to the Wall Street horror show last night with news of yet another multibillion-dollar writedown and capital-raising effort.

Less than a fortnight ago, Merrill sprang another after-hours surprise on investors in the shape of worse-than-expected quarterly results on the back of, you guessed it, big writedowns. Rumours of more bad news had already pummelled Merrill’s stock throughout yesterday – it closed down almost 12 per cent to hit its lowest level this decade.

When the quarterly results were announced, the hopeful explanation was that John Thain, chief executive since December, was ripping out the kitchen sink with gusto. In saying Merrill will take a third quarter charge of $5.7bn and needs to raise another $8.5bn – about a third of the current market capitalisation – Mr Thain has confirmed that rotten plumbing still needs to come out. Tellingly, Merrill is selling collateralised debt obligations with a gross value of $30.6bn at 22 cents on the dollar. What’s more, Merrill is providing financing for the buyer, Lone Star Funds, for three-quarters of the purchase price – with the funding secured solely aginst the heavily discounted assets that the fund is buying. In effect, the money Lone Star is putting up itself to take the portfolio off Merrill’s books equates to just over 5 cents on the dollar of the gross value.

Mr Thain continues his job of scrubbing Merrill’s toxic balance sheet. He has even managed to persuade Temasek Holdings to come in again on the latest capital-raising, albeit at heavy cost. The problem is, like most horror franchises, the sequels to Merrill’s original chiller appear to be never ending.

———–

Related posts:

  1. Temasek, “no regrets” for $6.8bn loss?
  2. Breaking News: $40 billion loss by Temasek Holdings
  3. Looking forward to (more) Goodyear
  4. In a culture of secrecy, no courage is required
  5. Temasek may have lost 800 million pounds on Barclays – Reuters



69 Comments

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Dr Syed Alwi
Jul 29, 2008 18:57

Dear People,

The PAP better pray that this investment deal works out ! If it fails – I think people will skin the PAP folks alive !!

Daniel
Jul 29, 2008 19:10

“The PAP better pray that this investment deal works out ! If it fails – I think people will skin the PAP folks alive !!”

Don’t worry. If PAP fails, LKY can always say that Merrill Lynch want to do us in.

Daniel
Jul 29, 2008 19:18

or even better still, says it may take up to 30 years for investment return.
Anyway, subservient Singaporean is very good to con.

gtiong
Jul 29, 2008 19:28

“The PAP better pray that this investment deal works out ! If it fails – I think people will skin the PAP folks alive !!”

Or they could just pushed the responsibility to a few junior officers that recommended this investment and slammed them for complacency.

ahsayman
Jul 29, 2008 19:42

I’m no economist, so Temasek was savvy enough, but what if Merril Lynch goes under? We still get our money back in 30 years? Or do we move on again?

Daniel
Jul 29, 2008 19:52

ahsayman,
only a naive and innocent chap will accept a 30 years investment. Even a con-man won’t dare promise you a investment lasting more than 5 years in this turbulent environment. Have you ever ask if LKY and his dynasty still be around then to make sure you give back the investment. He won’t today and what make you think 30 years later he will ? Let’s not kid ourselves.

Bear Solo
Jul 29, 2008 20:06

As the saying goes, there really is no transparency at all. The government is not opening their books and all we citizens get to see is reports from financial tabloids.

Dr Syed,

Don’t hope for the people to skin PAP alive, because most Singaporeans don’t know and/or don’t care. This practice of non-transparent dealings suits PAP just fine.

hongjun
Jul 29, 2008 20:23

10 years later, will there be another recession?
Value of ML will fall again.

Whenever a stock falls by 50%, we need 100% rise to get it back to the original buy price.

I think we need to pray really hard to make sure it will recover!

Cheers
hongjun

my_precious_ricebowl
Jul 29, 2008 20:26

Dr Syed Alwi,

You mean there is a way to know the books of the …?

I mean ALL transactions backdating to the day it was born.

I have no idea leh.

ha ha ha…

Regards
Mee Siam never have a hum

mr kit
Jul 29, 2008 20:32

can you smell all that tax money burning in the air? all the blood sweat and tears of the common man in it? sweet isnt it.

rafi
Jul 29, 2008 20:53

The question of whether this is a worthy investment is an immaterial one: I don’t see why we, layman, are better off at judging it then the government. What I sense is that people who complaint do not want to see their involuntary investment making a lost.

The real issue is then whether it is better off for people to manage their money and investment.

Looking at how many CPF investments have gone wrong, I believe letting government handle investment might actually best serve the interest of the poor people who aren’t investment-savvy. This might come at the expense of others whom might be able to achieve higher returns themselves. But then, these people mostly have more private wealth anyway.

Harrison
Jul 29, 2008 21:00

Not too long ago, Ho Ching was conferred as among the most powerful women. Now, we understand the real reason behind this dubious and sarcastic award that she so humbly accepted.

The power to lose multi-billions and still get paid multi-millions without being questioned by the board of Temasek Holdings. This is not only powerful but ridiculously so.

lol....
Jul 29, 2008 21:13

I mean, lee kuan yew, ho ching, lee hsien loong, tharman and all directores of GIC and temasek will never say they are wrong, they made the wrong bet and admit a collosal mistake. We can only depend on the foreign press!

Robert HO
Jul 29, 2008 21:14

RH: Well done, TOC, for bringing us these excerpts. I wonder what LI Hong Yi in MIT must be thinking these days. Totally ashamed of his grandfather and father whom he was brainwashed to worship and adore as Great Men and saints, only to find them the opposite.

All of LIE KY grandchildren must really be ashamed. Torturers, jailors, corrupt, nepotic, election riggers, etc. Most of all, STUPID to lose so much money that even a moron would not be able to. Recent insults to me suggests that LIE KY LHL are abusing me now more for diversion and distraction from their Stupidities than anything else.

ahsayman
Jul 29, 2008 21:31

Guys, keep your fingers nimble

Mayday’s speech just round the corner

Excuses would be offered

Not that it’ll ever matter.

DA
Jul 29, 2008 21:39

Danial, see

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treasury_bills#Treasury_bond
or
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_%28bond%29

Not that this is anything like the Merrill Lynch investment, but yes, there are investments for 30 years or more

hongjun
Jul 29, 2008 22:21

Paul
Jul 29, 2008 22:24

Temask was supposed run by the “best and the brightest”. NKF also may be? By the where where is Duray the guy who earned “peanuts”?

Dr Syed Alwi
Jul 29, 2008 22:29

Dear Rafi,

This is in reply to Rafi. Its not about managing one’s investments.

Its about priorities. If the Government is willing to take such risks with billions of dollars of our money – then I feel that it is their duty to spend a few on subsidies for the lower and middle income group. That should be their priority.

The Government should not gamble with our money before spending some on subsidies for the lower and middle income groups.

hongjun
Jul 29, 2008 22:38

I do agree Temasek and GIC invested too early on the battered banks.
Our CPF monies will see lower interest rates.

Watcher
Jul 29, 2008 23:13

While I am bothered by the losses incurred with Merill Lynch, this is part and parcel of investment and may prove to be profitable if one takes a longer term approach. I am more concerned about the use of Town Council funds to buy Creative shares if that is indeed true…. Surely, these funds are not meant for investment and neither is Creative the same league as Merill Lynch….

AKau
Jul 29, 2008 23:23

Wasn’t it reported that EVEN if Temasek’s investments in Merrill Lynch made INCREDIBLE RETURNS, they’d still only pay back MOF the capital they “borrowed” plus 2.5-3.5%?

So IF I AM READING IT CORRECTLY,

a. if there’s an upside, Temasek gets to keep the gains (minus the cost of capital)

b. but if there’s a downside… I guess we should just raise retirement age again to minimize their “payouts”

Daniel
Jul 29, 2008 23:25

“While I am bothered by the losses incurred with Merill Lynch, this is part and parcel of investment and may prove to be profitable if one takes a longer term approach.”

So define long term ? How long ? 30 years when the oldman no longer around ? Tell who is responsible and accountable ? Any company that invest billions should have one accountable ,even Singapore Inc. Tell me who ? It is so easy to say that it takes long term when no one is responsible at all for the decision. This is the case of uniquely Singapore, the only one in the world.

PM, SM, MM, Hojinx, etc … none of them is responsible billions of investment dollars lost ? What is this ? Singapore citizen must be the greatest fool on earth !

Stop telling us that investment take long term whereas the gahmen enjoy instant gratification now. Without responsibility and accountability, any gahmen can be complacent and apathetic over the loss.

In the bank and any investment company, someone has to take the rap whether they like it or not.

Andrew Loh
Jul 29, 2008 23:47

If the results of these investments will only be known in the “long term”, then perhaps we should hold off paying the ministers (and others) such insanely high salaries until the results of their decisios are known – n the long term. Yu can’t have your cake and eat it too.

One more important point: It is assumed, I presume, that in the long term these investments will reap profits or rewards. That is why we are told to look “long term”, right?

The question then becomes: What guarantee is there that these investments will reap rewards – long term?

And has been asked: How long is “long term” anyway?

Watcher
Jul 29, 2008 23:49

“So define long term ? How long ? 30 years when the oldman no longer around ? Tell who is responsible and accountable ? ”

Long term definitely means more than the 1 year or so after money is invested. I still think it is too early to pass judgment on the timing of the investment.

I am not disputing the need for accountability or if this is indeed the best investment or time to invest our CPF money in. This is indeed our money and pushing back the retirement based on our “aging” population argument just does not make it.

hongjun
Jul 30, 2008 0:07

Dividends for companies whereby grandparent is Temasek would be affected for their failed investment.

Dr Syed Alwi
Jul 30, 2008 0:10

Dear Watcher,

This one’s for you Watcher !
Wasn’t it Keynes who said that in the long run we’re all dead ?

There is NO long run. At most 5 to 10 years. But 30 years ? Nonsense !

But I guess they want the Americans to be beholden unto them perhaps ?? Rubbish ! The Americans can just vote out their President and put someone who can reverse all decisions.

My problem with this investment – is that IF they are prepared to lose billions in risky investments – then why are they NOT prepared to spend a little on subsidies to help the lower and middle income group ?

What does it say about their values ?

hongjun
Jul 30, 2008 0:26

“What does it say about their values ?”

Long run of 30 yrs? Some may not even live to see it! It does not make sense to dump so much money and then pray for the rest of the 30 yrs hoping to bear fruits. It could have been a lot better to spend on lower and middle income group than risking of being voted out.

Daniel
Jul 30, 2008 0:36

DA,
yes, there are investment for 30 years but will you personally accept a 30 years investment with no one responsible and accountable for the investment but the little people ? I not talking about 30 years of investment of building Singapore but of building frailing banks and companies from other countries. Will you rather invest in Singapore and its citizen for 30 years or will you rather invest in foreign companies for 30 years ?
What is the relationship between our gahmen and the bank ? And what the hell those banks are paying the gahmen for been advisor or part of management team ? How much is been pay to the gahmen to accept such investment into frailing banks ? Did anyone find out ? Is there a conflict of interest ?

And what did I know, only a government like Singapore can talk about planning and getting surplus for the future which is never enough but yet lost within a year. Amazing ?

Ask what billions of dollars can go into building quality of life for citizen and make citizen feel patriotic and proud. Singapore government has been creating a lot of images without substance.

Daniel
Jul 30, 2008 0:47

Imagine Ah Beng is the new CEO of Sony and investors are worried that share price drop sharply and Sony no longer remains competitive.
Ah Beng says to the management team and investors not to worry so much about the company because he still has 30 years of building Sony. Never mind about loss now, but Ah Beng still get to pay $5 millions dollar annually in addition to perk, company car, even though the company lose money year. Want to terminate Ah Beng ? Pay $100 millions as compensation. Look like Ah Beng is there for a long long ride. The staff start leaving the company and moral is low, Ah Beng still not worry, still have 30 years to build Sony, mah. Still have ample time to play golf for next 20 years. Cannot cut his salary but can reduce wages of the rest of the company and reduce headcount. Not to worry mah, another 30 years of building Sony. What’s there to worry.

You get the idea.

Daniel
Jul 30, 2008 0:59

” I am more concerned about the use of Town Council funds to buy Creative shares if that is indeed true….”

Investment may not be the same league but the gahmen’s mentality is of the same league. Suggest the Town Council follow the standard model answer of LKY that it takes up to 30 years to recoup the investment from Creative to dismiss further commotion. Oh, don’t worry, at the end of 30 years, the someone will say ‘I did not make such decision to invest, it is made by those in previous batch, so none of my problem. So let’s move on’

The town council are following the footstep of Inc, so tell me what is exactly the difference ?

Are we so overly naive to believe our gahmen ? If they really is that superb, why need the MSM as mouthpiece and marketing ?

No Experience
Jul 30, 2008 8:21

Do not play play with Americans in the money game – history shows that they will always win in the end.
Showmanship, marketering and the con Stingings all originate from the west – try Australia, NZ, EU, USA … and tell me what gains had been made before?
ABC ? Air New Zealand, Virgin ? Micropolis ?

Learn from experience , men.

Is it not better to use the resources to take care of the aged rather than kissing them away ? and wait for a 30 year outcome ? Come on, we are all not born yesterday.

slohand2
Jul 30, 2008 8:48

to No Experience,
I couldnt agree with you more, and thats why Im so sick of the way this so called investments are made. Every man in the street knows that bad times are coming, but for reasons best known to the team at the top ( or maybe it was Capt solo) they insists on betting everything on the financials. Being agressive with Other Peoples Money OPM is often easy. However, where is the accountability??

The SS
Jul 30, 2008 9:47

If ML continues to write down more, a merger/take over will loom ever more possible. Temasek will be forced to accept the take-over price and thus a cut-loss.
This alone will bring that ‘long term’ promise into its proper perspective given that these are not ‘normal’ investment cycle behaviour we are experiencing.

I must then credit Temasek for this shrudness in cutting this resetting deal that allows them to effective wipe out their earlier mark-to-market losses on this counter though, but they sure know how to pick the losers this time…. Citi, UBS and yes ML are the worst hit banks in the continuing sub-prime saga.

The end is not near, i am afraid…. So hang on your horses, the ride can still get rougher.

Observer (SG-HK)
Jul 30, 2008 10:36

34) The SS on July 30th, 2008 9.47 am

How can they loose? Its’ a “L….O…..N…..G” term investments.

“If ML continues to write down more, a merger/take over will loom ever more possible.”

You forgot my friend, they are savvy people. Protection clause already in agreement. So cannot loose (they think).

On a side note.
Interestingly, what-if CitiCorp take over ML? Or MS take over ML? or either of these three launch a hostile take over effort in the next 18 months?

This sub-prime mortgage debacle is only a tip of the iceberg. Sub-prime mortgage is not just for property per-se. There are other sub-prime issues that has yet to surface.

Anybody interested to guess what’s next in line? Don’t forgot those investments in the China banking industries and others as well.

aygee
Jul 30, 2008 10:53

How many of us truly know what ML business is like throughout the world? They may have been hit badly by the mortgage-backed funds right now, but they may also have strong assets in other areas which could give solid returns over the next few decades.

Let’s not be too harsh about this point of “poor investing” by the govt – as many of us dont really know the real big picture. its easy to criticise in retrospect. but when it comes to such huge investment undertakings, i would trust its all done in good faith and intentions – they made the decision based on the information they have at that point of time, and i’m very sure it was not done as a “gamble”.

But speaking of gambling, now do you see why the govt was pushing to have casinos? putting aside the moral/religious issues of the gaming industry, we clearly need the extra cash. its a hedge against the investments the govt made elsewhere. And casino returns is a sure thing – no one can beat the House, as they say. i have seen the money being thrown in Macau, and boy, there’s certainly money to be reaped. the gaming pie is not finite, and is only growing bigger – so why not take a piece of it?

The Singapore Daily » Blog Archive » Daily SG: 30 Jul 2008
Jul 30, 2008 11:13

[...] in the Lion City: Another quarter; another loss – e pur si muove: Some good Temasek news – TOC: Merrill Lynch – SPUG: Haiz… SG Investment really down & [...]

percevale
Jul 30, 2008 11:45

“We cannot expect our minister to be prescient.”

“It’s an honest mistake, let’s move on.”

“You needed a dose of bad governance.”

“You were complacent that this happened.”

The PAP’s responses will be derived from any one of these stock answers.

Daniel
Jul 30, 2008 11:51

aygee,
then tell us what strong assets they have ? We do not criticize for the sake of criticizing but we are fearful of what a arrogant and the increasingly inept government can do. One with a oldman and ministers keep telling us rubbish when they themselves are been protected

You can keep talking about good faith when the government minister can’t even justified properly of GST and price hike ?
Have this government been less arrogant and less ‘we know it best’, I will have no worry but for one that couldn’t inspire the nation and keep telling us budget deficit in here and there when money are not spent wisely, and thing under secrecy. Are we paying for someone’s follies then ?

Want to invest, fine ! Put someone responsible and accountable for it. You have diverted the issue. Investment is nothing wrong until no one is responsbile and accountable for it. You cannot have someone taking credit when make money but no one accountable when money is lost.

Anyway, is that your concept of investment in a company where the head of the company doesn’t take responsibility ? You forget these coffers are paid through tax-money.

Yew Loon
Jul 30, 2008 12:12

Temasek Holdings is pumping billions of dollar into Merrill Lynch, a bank that will collapse anytime. Who is going to pay if the Merrill Lynch investment screw up? Will MM Lee resign as chairman and the whole board at Temasek investment take responsibility?

Dr Syed Alwi
Jul 30, 2008 12:22

Dear Aygee,

This is for Aygee !

Once again – its not about investments. The problem here is – why is the Government not willing to spend some on subsidies for the lower and middle income groups – but yet is quite willing to risk losing billions of dollars in investments ? How do you justify that ? On what moral grounds ??

Governments can and should invest. But Governments also have a moral duty to look after the citizens. Therefore a sensible Government would balance the two.

Singaporespirit
Jul 30, 2008 13:18

I remember quite vividly that after GIC, Temasek Holdings dumped their USD billions into the ailing banks like UBS, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, few months later, certain banks in Singapore marketed a financial product promising protection and higher than our fixed deposits’ interests. Who are the issuers? Merill Lynch and JP Morgans!! Who are the takers? Old uncles’ and aunties’ buy. I believe they are desperate to come out something soon in the financial markets. Just wait and see!

Harry
Jul 30, 2008 13:42

This is only the tip of the iceberg of huge loses. They are very badly caught out by the global financial meltdown. Their portfolios must have shrunk by the tens if not hundreds of billions and Singaporeans are non the wiser. Scary indeed.

smokescreen
Jul 30, 2008 13:58

Temasek still has plenty of money to punt, sort of averaging out its bets. This strategy will work if Temasek has deep pockets and the investments are viewed over a period of 30 years. Ho Ching and her bunch of ‘elites’ either have this incredible vision to see up to 30 years or they have discovered the “mother of all”
economic and financial theory, which probably explains the quiet confidence.
The worst case scenario is for Ho Ching to write off the losses as personal tuition fees, courtesy of indulgent hubby and father-in-law.

Nick Leeson may fancy making a comeback and offer his services. Cannot deny that he has the experience.

Tew NS
Jul 30, 2008 14:30

old man will say why quarrel over 10 billlion loses, when we have 200 billion reserves. It is only 5% loss, peanut only.

Singaporespirit
Jul 30, 2008 14:45

To TW NS
You are right! If only these losses are his and his families, the story we hear and read will be different. For those who bought into structured deposit – Jublilee Series 8 Notes will know in 2.5 years time. For our Government who bought into what they believed a good buy will know the outcome in 20 to 30 years time, Just be a little patient, the smog will clear in its own time.

aygee
Jul 30, 2008 14:47

To Dr Alwi and Daniel,

i’m not here to defend the govt. I’m just advocating some restraint in harshly criticising the ML investment.

now, i was looking at the article posted by TOC, and i’m just commenting on the point raised by this TOC post, which is about the investment in ML. i did not try to link this article with govt leadership or GST hikes or whatever.

i say again – i’m focusing my comment on the actual investment, and not linking it to the role a govt should play.

Daniel – i wouldnt know what are the strong assets that ML have, as i’m not an accountant nor an investment banker. those assets could be listed in their books, it could be published on their website, whatever. perhaps the assets are hidden in all those numbers. whatever.

What we need to be clear is that ML is currently hit by the mortgage-backed funds that they have, which they have sold off at a huge loss, which has affected their stock price very badly, and that they’re likely to announce losses at their next quartely announcement.

BUT, over the long run, they may have other assets that can give returns to their shareholders. They still have a strong Board and leadership that has delivered in the past. if not, i’m sure the shareholders will ask for a new boss to take over.

AND – its an investment. its a paper loss of stock value at this stage, which could turn around in the future. (the keyword is “could” here, nothing is certain).

The point i was trying to bring up was – no investment officer of any company, much less the folks in GIC or Temasek, would make a “gamble” of this magnitude. it was an investment that made sense at that point of time. and clearly, we’ve seen that they are doing the best they can to overcome the current negative slide in the ML stockprice.

Investments of this magnitude will have huge teams involved – from seasoned investment folks, to corporate/financial lawyers, to accountants, to financial consultants, to economists and whatnot. I’m very sure every single one of them are held accountable, and sweating bullets at this point of time.

The investment was also hedged against any devaluation of Singapore’s shares, if ML went out to look for more money.

but if both of you prefer to link this current ML stock slide back to the roles of goverments, moral duty to care citizens, then fine…go ahead. i shall not partake in that line of discussion.

and btw – some of us would also argue that our govt IS taking care of its citizens. many of you are not starving in the streets, you have clean water to drink.

If there is any point to discuss, then the point of discussion should be if they are doing enough, are they being transparent enough.

Dr Syed Alwi
Jul 30, 2008 15:04

Dear Aygee,

To you Aygee :

I think that you are just being evasive. I do NOT argue about the merits and demerits of this investment deal.

The question I posed is really very simple. IF the Government is prepared to risk losing billions in investments – then why is it NOT prepared to spend a little to subsidise the lower and middle income groups during these hard times ?

I find it incomprehensible !!

Observer (SG-HK)
Jul 30, 2008 15:38

Dear aygee,

Point noted. I think the question here is how accountable and transparent are they? It is not just ML alone so to speak. The very well known Banks and Financial Institution they have invested, all at a heavy lost. It is one too many.

You think deeper. Are there no other wealthy people in America or other parts of the world? You have to understand these are iconic institutions in America, why not the wealthy Americans investing if it is such good returns? Are they stupid people? Or our “smucks” custodians are taken as suckers at the expense of its powerless citizenry.

Technically speaking, we citizens are shareholders of these investments. So, in any Publicly Listed Entities, we do have the rights to know how our contributions are being invested and with what kind of returns. Do you agree?

I agreed with you on this, it is long term. But 30 years is too long a term. Give me an example in the world (including Mr. WM, Soros and the likes), can they predict 30 years trend and still at the top? Let’s make it easier, 20 year trend? You have to remember, part of the money (the billions of dollars they managed comes from the CPF pool ~ I stand corrected if proven me wrong as there are no transparency on this). Every now and then, our minimal retirement sum in the CPF keep rising. At last count 106K min. to be put aside before any withdrawal is allowed at retirment. You want to take a guess 10 years from now, how much more do you have to put aside at the rate it is going now? My guess is 180~200K. How about 20 or 30 years from now? What is your monthly maximum contribution and you do the math (don’t forget to make the assumption of job lost, these days do not be too sure you are always stayed employ). We are being locked down. What was the best return so far on our CPF?

If they are as smart as they claimed they are (they have got too to merit their millions right?), they would have envisaged the population issues and not advocate the “Stop at 2 campaign”. How many years ago was that? Do you still remember what was the message then when they were promoting that campaign? So, it is not just blind criticism we are talking here. There are a series of very intricate stories that we were sold on time and again. It is indeed time to tell us stupid, naive, gullible citizens (as some dim bulb had just said in the ST ~ that who?), that how the returns are being allocated and used. Or at least let us know what kind of returns (even on paper) are we getting.

Coming to your logic on the casinos thing. There are hidden social issues awaiting to happen once these gaming centres are in operation (if full accountability and transparency are exercised). It is not just the normal/religion issues that you set aside. Let’s wait and see whether this is such a good decision. Or it is just plainly monkey see monkey do thing. But you have to remember, there is no turning back once the jeannie is out of the bottle. At whose expense again in the end? It is us the citizenry.

Harry
Jul 30, 2008 16:33

In the private sector, any investment officer who made this type of disastrous investment decisions would have been replaced. If it is a hedge fund, there will be massive withdrawal which will result in the closure of the fund. Now some Singaporeans may claim that managing the reserve is different from managing a private fund. This may be true to some extent as a country has the resouces to rideout the short tern loses. However the onus on the people managing a country’
s reserve is even greater in that these are the citizens money and so it is all the more crucial that decisions are more careful and conservative. Is this the case in Singapore ? NO. They plunge into the black hole of Western banking when the warning signs are all over the places not to do so. Further the pap government claimed that they are the world best in defence of their world highest salary for political office. As they pegged their salary to the private sector, it is only fair that they should also be held accountable to the standard of the private sector if not more.

Observer (SG-HK)
Jul 30, 2008 17:43

50) Harry on July 30th, 2008 4.33 pm

“As they pegged their salary to the private sector, it is only fair that they should also be held accountable to the standard of the private sector if not more.”

In our dreams may be. Don’t bet on it! The writings are on the wall. Once too many the equation is made, even dumb fools, dim bulbs, bimbo can figure out it’s just a lame excuse. I think you would agree 100%, if a person tell you that I can only be patroitic and serve my country (they need to take oath in public office right? Remember we have to do our little citizen pledge everyday in school?), but I can only do that if you pay me well enough. Then this person character should be put under a microscope. But have they so far? The answer is crystal clear right?

Plenty of good fatifh and intentions is needed
Jul 30, 2008 17:56

36) aygee on July 30th, 2008 10.53 am
“How many of us truly know what ML business is like throughout the world?”

So ? So ? Big deal. Well, I thought the big boys of high finance and ML knew their business very well in the first place. So why are they getting into this sh*t with MASSIVE write down and some needing bail-outs in the billions.

Just because you are someone who knows much about finance (in theory at least or even in practice) does not mean that you will know for sure the exact timing how the financial table will turn in reality. No one and absolutely no one knows for sure the timing of their recovery, if they ever recover – not even the Feb chairman or any finance minister in the world.

If it is also your own money which is at risk, then I will certainly salute you together with your explanation on good faith and good intentions which are really empty otherwise.

Hedging is very good.
Jul 30, 2008 18:22

“47) aygee on July 30th, 2008 2.47 pm
The investment was also hedged against any devaluation of Singapore’s shares, if ML went out to look for more money.”

Effective hedge ? If the net worth of a company drops, then the real worth (value) of the shares (or per share) will correspondingly drop. What kind of hedge is this if you need whatever further money that some other people may be willing to offer if it is required to save your company.

Anyone here to enlighten me ?

Eaststopper
Jul 30, 2008 19:44

If only the critics understood the terms of the deal better. The latest Merrill Lynch cash call was actually a sweet deal for Temasek. I believed Temask had learnt its lesson well with Barclays.
Do read this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121735266454993851.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

SAD
Jul 30, 2008 20:06

Seems like nobody up there is prepared to listen to the netizens’ concern. The spending goes on. How I wished that more be done for the poor and aging poor first.

Fever Guy
Jul 30, 2008 20:17

aygee,

Do you play US stocks? Why not open an account with interactivebrokers and buy let’s say 10 lots of your savings on ML and say keep it for just 10 years. Let’s not pursue the 30 years time frame which the oldman promised but cant live to see the returns. You have so much faith and and good intention of Temaesk why not do the walk? Join them and buy some ML’s stock now trading at USD$25, lelong price you know. Sure it is a good time to buy rite? You have so much faith in our less than transparent government and poor management of funds and no actual information on the returns…how the heck you can say things so simply. I am no sheep and cant be brainwash by pap anymore. One last thing, GIC and Temasek ’s investment returns how big the portion is derive from tax payer’s contributions and land sales and other taxes and even CPF as compared to actual profit returns from good investments. Do you care to share? A good company worth investing is one that is transparent enough. Like Berkshire Holdings from Warren Buffet and which GIC and Temasek can drool forever to become one.

I can only pray that HOJINX don make more costly mistakes. Bear in mind these are Singapore ’s People’s hard earned money not some PEANUTS mentioned by the woody ’s wife.

FG

Mr malaba
Jul 30, 2008 20:20

can’t wait for ML to go bankrupt soon and see tumasek bit the dust. let see how singaporean can still ‘bo chup’ about it and believe for more good years.

Eaststopper
Jul 30, 2008 20:24

Hello,

The latest cash call by ML is not exactly a bad thing. It is actually a sweet deal for Temasek if we look closely at the terms of the deal. The new deal essentially wipes out the paper losses suffered since Temasek’s first investment. Do read this article by WSJ.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121735266454993851.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

patriot
Jul 30, 2008 20:37

Hi Folks;

me comes in for a peek into TOC and can’t resist to put some words here.

Supposing someone or some people ‘are made’ to be answerable and accountable for all these investments in the Frailing Banks now; what kind of responsibilities do we expect from them?

If I am Lee Kuan Yew or even Lee Hsien Loong, the Prime Minister, I will shoulder every responsibility given that the Citizens are told to wait for thirty years for results, positive or otherwise. Meanwhile, the Top People in Temasek and GIC are collecting their fat pays and remunerations without fails. In thirty years? Give the Two Lees the best Foods and the Best Cares and even the rumoured blood changes anytime they want. At thirty years later, the Surviving Citizens can only go to their tombs to ask for accountabilities. Punish Lee Hsien Loong if thing goes wrong thirty years from now if he is still alive then? So What? Put a near 90 year old man in jail? See the Picture?

Almost everyone is right in everything said here and Dr Syed Alwi made a most relevant and useful call persistently for the Leadership to use a portion of the money to help the people who are facing problems in their livings. Here I must say I am very impressed with Dr Syd Alwi for his practicality and wisdom.

By now, Singaporeans should be awared of the Schemes of Events in our society, there are many relevant calls for responsibilities in this and that. HOWEVER, we are also painfully awared that the Schemers are able to come up with plenty of excuses and thereby evade all accountabilities ‘beautifully’ and naturally. We complain, we whine, we grumble only to hurt ourselves at the end of it all, maybe by doing so, our frustrations are relieved despite the helplessness. I sincerely believe, all of us hope that our Leaders will recover/discover their consciences and see the importance of helping their citizens as priority.

A period of thirty years is too long for me personally, I fear it maybe too long for many others and even our country. If fate comes as planned, even begged, all of us need not worry. BUT, if I understand fate correctly, it is beyond human manipulations, let just hope that we have SENSIBLE LEADERS.

patriot.

Daniel
Jul 30, 2008 20:54

aygee,
the oldman is obviously influencing decision of Temasek, GIC and the government. Look the same oldman talk about investment of his instrument and talk political scene in Singapore, and do we not know old man still in control overall. You bet. How can a government run properly when money collected channel to Temask and GIC with oldman behind everything and pretending not ? The oldman is obviously the mastermind. So when one speak of government, can one forget about GIC and temasek ? You forget the head of all these ?

Did you notice not when investing in communicating oversea using Temask, GIC, the oldman is the one doing the talking behind deal make not his inept son and his wife ? And this involve political issue not just a matter of commercial interest. One reason is that other countries stamp on us is because it is both a commerical and political been a government, now you see the point of why all these are linked together.

A government so afraid of LKY than they even can do President Ong when the latter ask for explanation on accounting and audit ? What is this ? Do we still want to live in a make-believe world after so much loss ? How much loss before action is taken ? How much of loss is enough ?

Daniel
Jul 30, 2008 21:07

aygee,
suggest you read The Singapore Miracle to uncover the real truth behind the public information that claimed to be released by GIC, Temasek. Information that are claimed to be public are just for wayang and when the someone requested the public information on GIC, and Temasek, it is next impossible to get.

The Singapore Miracle is a must-read book and wake-up call to those gullible, naive who still believe in Fallacy of Singapore. I don’t have problem with government until these few years when the JOker Lee takes over, the ministers are spawning rubblish that hard for layman to digest and find ways to dig money from citizen. Blunder after blunder, and still Singapore remains the same way it runs. Read the book and you will find that whatever Singapore’s issue in the past, present and in the future are discussed. These gahmen are making this just too obvious to be ignored.

It is quite sad when I speak to many Singaporeans, singaporeans can only save this is the way the world and government are. If that is the case, it is a great sin to bring the baby into this world to suffer in this pragmatic world that we choose to believe.

WHY_COMPLAING?
Jul 31, 2008 9:15

COMPLAING COMPLAING, WHY YOU ALL SO LIKE DAT WAN siah?

IS THERE A NEED FOR TRANSPARENCY for ‘THE’ funds?

WHY ? GIVE ME 2 GOOD REASONS AT LEAST.

SINCE Decades ago that it was created, does the PEOPLE know about the investment performance of ‘THE’ funds?

How many Elections has passed since then?

Have the PEOPLE spoken?
Had the PEOPLE spoken?

By this, I can say that the MAJORITY do not demand TRANSPARENCY of ‘THE’ funds, how they use money, which I am not sure come from who or where.

Is this kind of citizen the ideal for other country leaders? I have no idea.

So, all I have to say is , WHY COMPRAING now when all was said and done?

So damm UNIQUE until unique cannot anymore…

SAD. From now till forever more. Self preser….ation. Ya, really ‘1st wer’.

The Singapore Daily » Blog Archive » Weekly Roundup: Week 30
Aug 2, 2008 11:16

[...] in the Lion City: Another quarter; another loss – e pur si muove: Some good Temasek news – TOC: Merrill Lynch – EastStop: Temasek has learnt its lesson well – This lush garden within: Temasek & GIC suffers [...]

Oasis
Aug 2, 2008 22:18

$900 million…….Just think about it. With that amount of money, we could have discovered an alternative energy source, gone to the moon, discovered a cure for cancer…..Instead of which, we buy a stake in a failing investment bank….

ahsayman
Aug 2, 2008 22:41

Sorry pal, it’s $900 million plus $4.4 billion.

hongjun
Aug 2, 2008 23:19

Number 8th bank in U.S., ‘First Priority Bank, Bradenton, FL’, closed on Aug 1.
More banks to close? I think yes.

Daniel
Aug 3, 2008 1:42

“More banks to close? I think yes.”
Worry not. The whole Singapore is a bank. Just milk the citizen here and there and billions will appear for another investment of 30 years. Will Singapore be the next Atlantis ?

Donaldson Tan
Sep 19, 2008 3:10

In 1999, Singapore’s first elected President, Ong Teng Cheong, asked the Ministry of Finance what the state of our national treasury was. He never got an answer and died shortly after that.

laucheow
Oct 8, 2008 9:11

I’m no financial expert OK, but I just checked Yahoo Finance and after today’s terrible bloodbath in the stock market, MER has dropped to $18. The market cap is now $27.57B, so if Temasek owns 10% of Merrill Lynch – does that mean that its stake is now worth $2.757B? So let’s see, if Temasek sank $5.3B into Merrill, some of that money has gone missing.

All this is supposed to reflect Bank of America’s own problems – remember that BAC made an offer for MER at $29, but it was supposed to be an all-stock deal. Whatever. MER’s stock price seems to reflect a much lower value for the company now. And who the heck knows anything anymore – what if the deal doesn’t go ahead and Merrill Lynch collapses like Lehman?

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