Excerpts from The Straits Times’ article by Chua Lee Hoong titled, “High growth brings high risks, for nations too”:
FIVE years is all it will take to ruin Singapore, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said recently.
Watching the financial crisis claim one victim after another in quick succession in recent weeks, I have been wondering if Mr Lee wasn’t being too optimistic. Perhaps it won’t take five years; perhaps a couple of years might be enough!
Lest you think I have taken leave of my senses, let me hasten to add that I make that remark in light of the cataclysmic collapse of Lehman Brothers and the bizarre bankruptcy of Iceland.
[snip]
Singapore’s leaders have reminded the country time and again how important it is to have prudent ministers who will make decisions for the long-term good, and to save for a rainy day.
Let’s fess up, most of us had become tired of hearing those reminders. But the rainy day is upon us, and it would be thoroughly churlish not to say now that those injunctions were right.
All we need is an incompetent leadership with no experience in steering the economy or setting monetary policies, and we won’t need five years before we start seeing the negative effects.
[snip]
If Singapore were North Korea or Myanmar, insulated from the global turmoil, it wouldn’t be so vulnerable. But it wouldn’t be very wealthy either.
Once you’ve cast your lot with the global economy, there can be no decoupling.
But would Singaporeans have it any other way?
Probably not, which is why it is so critical how you choose your financial planner – or your political leaders.
———–
Read Ms Chua’s article in full here.
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Is the article so short?
She did not make much commentary. Maybe she is being careful just to say this much.
Still, can tell that she is bootliicking again.
My immediate thoughts?…
Choice?
What are the options?
Artcile was snipped off…apparently.
They are excerpts. It is indicated in the post.
First impression: MSM touting the same official line again.
Second Question: By the same logic, Obama never has a chance to lead his country. Fortunately for him, his is the USA.
Third Conclusion: Confirms skipping Chua LH’s article now and in future is a wise strategy in time management.
I am sure people already know about her.
Erm….I mean her talent with words.
Others like her sister and Warry Fernando.
Can’t read full article >< Dun wanna pay Money… Thus no comments.
Can request for full article?
The full article:
FIVE years is all it will take to ruin Singapore, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said recently.
Watching the financial crisis claim one victim after another in quick succession in recent weeks, I have been wondering if Mr Lee wasn’t being too optimistic.
Perhaps it won’t take five years; perhaps a couple of years might be enough!
Lest you think I have taken leave of my senses, let me hasten to add that I make that remark in light of the cataclysmic collapse of Lehman Brothers and the bizarre bankruptcy of Iceland.
Take Lehman Brothers first.
If a 158-year-old investment bank everybody thought was solid as a rock can collapse, can something similar happen to a Singapore institution? And if such a collapse happened, would the Republic be able to survive as a financial centre?
What Lehman Brothers held in liabilities was three times the total deposits in all banks in Singapore combined, say some analysts. So the answer to the question – Can the Republic survive? – is ‘No’. Singapore will go belly-up, like Iceland did last month.
Just a year ago, Iceland was ranked by the United Nations Human Development Index as the most developed nation in the world. Its per capita gross domestic product was twice that of Singapore’s. It had enjoyed a decade of high growth, fuelled by financial deregulation in the 1990s.
And then it went bankrupt for the oldest reason in the world: It borrowed too much.
Swashbuckling entrepreneurs borrowed to buy up assets in Europe; Iceland’s banks financed their expansion not with deposits but with reckless borrowing from overseas. The central bank allowed it all to happen by keeping interest rates high at 12 to 15 per cent, inducing the inflow of deposits from overseas.
Result: Its banks collapsed under the weight of external debt estimated at ¥50 billion (S$95 billion), compared to a GDP of ¥8.5 billion. Iceland now has to borrow from the International Monetary Fund and Russia to keep its economy going.
If bankruptcy can happen to Iceland, what is there to prevent Singapore, another small nation, from following a similar path?
Nothing very much, really. Except the wits of its political leaders and monetary regulators, and the financial buffer provided by the reserves accumulated over many years.
Singapore’s leaders have reminded the country time and again how important it is to have prudent ministers who will make decisions for the long-term good, and to save for a rainy day.
Let’s fess up, most of us had become tired of hearing those reminders. But the rainy day is upon us, and it would be thoroughly churlish not to say now that those injunctions were right.
All we need is an incompetent leadership with no experience in steering the economy or setting monetary policies, and we won’t need five years before we start seeing the negative effects.
I was particularly chilled by a question posed by a visiting American academic the other day: Why has no one attacked the Singdollar?
Why chilled? Because 10 years ago, speculative attacks on the Thai baht led to the collapse of the Thai economy and the Asian financial crisis.
That someone can ask the question about the Singdollar means that no one should rule out the possibility of it being attacked by speculators intent on profiting from doing so.
I have no knowledge of whether there have been such attacks, but my guess is that they have been few. Speculators know that Singapore can defend its dollar, thanks to its accumulated reserves.
Still, reserves are not infinite. A sum of $150 billion has already been pledged to guarantee bank deposits in Singapore up to 2010. A hundred billion or two here, a hundred billion or two there, and surely there must come a point when our reserves are significantly less – and we are consequently more vulnerable. It would be foolish to think that the reserves are a bottomless pit.
As the current turmoil has highlighted, being wealthy is no guarantee that you will not be vulnerable.
And Singapore is particularly vulnerable, thanks to its policy of going for high growth and high inter-connectedness with the world economy.
That policy has brought growth of 7 to 8 per cent a year when times were good.
Singaporeans have been told this repeatedly and have come to accept it as an article of faith – no connection with the globalised world means no rapid growth.
But what they might not have quite grasped – until now – is that high returns also means high risk, even for a country.
If Singapore were North Korea or Myanmar, insulated from the global turmoil, it wouldn’t be so vulnerable. But it wouldn’t be very wealthy either.
Once you’ve cast your lot with the global economy, there can be no decoupling.
But would Singaporeans have it any other way?
Probably not, which is why it is so critical how you choose your financial planner – or your political leaders.
leehoong@sph.com.sg
Didn’t MM Lee also say that he had to pay all his ministers “market rate” or else they will leave to join Lehman Brothers, Merrill et al? cos if he didn’t, he will get low calibre people who will lose you billions of dollars?
Wait a minute. We DID pay “market rate”. But we still lose billions.
So much for the A-Team!
“Mr T pities the fools..”
It’s close to year end appraisals, I am sure she would like a good year end bonus. Four legs goodddd, two legs baddddd!
I am normally pretty objective when it comes to persons I don’t agree with, but in this case, I have to ‘fess up’ and say once again that the Chua sisters have absolutely no qualifications to be SENIOR political editors/writers of any calibre. I think HER WORLD writers write better. Why hasn’t there been any articles written on her being unabashedly PRO-PAP and hence too subjective to be an editor, much less a senior one? That’s why I stopped buying ST. Every time I open the papers on page two and I see her byline spoils my morning coffee.
The full article: – Gorilla Voice (#8)
Thanks for making the article available.
When MM Lee said it will take 5 years for a non-PAP government to ruin Singapore, did the author not realise that 5 years is also the interval between 2 General Elections. In that case, is MM Lee promoting PAP as a politician or actually being pro-Singapore as a cabinet member?
Just a year ago, Iceland was ranked by the United Nations Human Development Index as the most developed nation in the world. Its per capita gross domestic product was twice that of Singapore’s. It had enjoyed a decade of high growth, fuelled by financial deregulation in the 1990s. – Chua Lee Hong
All we need is an incompetent leadership with no experience in steering the economy or setting monetary policies, and we won’t need five years before we start seeing the negative effects. – Chua Lee Hong
What Iceland has demonstrated is that even competent governments can make big blunders that turn the country bankrupt overnight. The same can be said for America. The American government’s oversight in regulatory matters has resulted in the Global Financial Crisis. Miss Chua really has no solid case that competent leadership with years of experience will not lead to catastrophic failure.
10) Dan
ahahahaha… Chua ‘Squealer’ Hong… ahahahahaha
Come on Singaporeans!
Let’s be objective on this.
Hands on your hearts, honestly, what do you hope to hear from LKY’s all time favourite bed partner?
i really wonder what she’s like as a person? who are her friends? i hope to meet her one day…and probably tell her in the face ” Your articles suck!”
To cover the cost of living and numerous price hikes, I too, have not been Paying And Paying to Buy the news. Instead, I use the TV and the Web as sources of news, the same news and then some alternative news. This is just my personal preference. And for 1 year already, I find myself still well informed. All major and important news are distributed quickly and efficiently via :
1. Forums.
2. Blogs.
3. SMS
4. free news websites
5. Google and Yahoo.
6. TV
7. Word of mouth
Thanks to these, I don’t buy the news now.
I spend the savings on electricity bills.
Hands on your hearts, honestly, what do you hope to hear from LKY’s all time favourite bed partner? – gemami (#14)
Isn’t that Mrs Lee? Wait! She is still hospitalised, isn’t she? LOL
How many of us have a chance to choose our leaders here in the first place?
She was just trying to say “IT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE” from her viewpoint.
Cut that woman some slack.
What can Singaporeans expect from ST journalists whose hands, feet and tongues are bound into one idealogy – in the interest of the PAP led government. Thank goodness, Singaporeans are not politically retarded.
Here’s a sombre reminder for Chua Lee Hoong:
Despite we being forced-fed all the bitter pills and paying many millions to those administrators, we cannot escape the downturns. Therefore, how can we reconcile the fact that we should pay through our noses for those administrators?
Justification valid?
She was just trying to say “IT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE” from her viewpoint. Cut that woman some slack. – isa (#19)
Well.. Town Council sinking funds managed by PAP leaders also made losses from exposure to bad investments. PAP leaders are just as human as any of us here. They are also as human as the current Opposition leaders. We are all human.
Ms Chua should remember this:
Highest-paid ministers in the world – Singapore.
Who said this about themselves: “unique, extraordinary, exceptional? – Singapore leaders.
First Asian country to go into a recession – Singapore.
‘Nuff said.
What is your comment on TC investment ?
How about Selamat case?
And
IBA 72 page report? Can I assume the IBA is not sued as there is nothing to sue? Advise if you know leh.
20) Harrison on November 11th, 2008 12.35 pm
MSM writers and reporters have the choice to work for any news companies in the world. Their choice?
“First Asian country to go into a recession – Singapore.”
MTI released a statement on change in growth rates for quarters, but did not say it was in a technical recession.
AFP did a report based on the MTI statement, and said Singapore is in technical recession.
Quickly, CNA released a report saying Singapore is in technical recession.
You see, the government needs others to tell them that the country that they are number one again.
Despite my disagreements with the government on some issues, I think she has a point. Lets not bash her for the sake of bashing. Even if she’s pro-government, there are some valid points we can take from there.
Even if she’s pro-government, there are some valid points we can take from there. – Alex (#26)
What are her invalid points in your opinion?
Gee! do you guys really read her article? Come on, don’t waste your time. What do you hope to hear? Some bed time secrets accidentally revealed by the god himself? Geez!
Even if she’s pro-government, there are some valid points we can take from there. – Alex (#26)
Correct! She’s got valid points! We must choose capable leaders and kick out the incompetent leaders! We may have built up a sorrid reserve but doesn’t mean we anyhow throw into useless projects leh!
Well said! our team A leaders have led us into recession!
and if we ask, the government will tell us, that is that out economy is vulnerable to external environment
And when theres growth, our leaders tell us, they have done a great job!
How convenient!!!
I love the way the press, government instill fear in us.
The government takes all the credit, and blames the rest of the world. Even in the matter of Lehman Brothers Minibonds, LKY said, investors went in with eyes OPEN. So it isn’t the banks, it is the people. And YES, it is the people’s fault for voting in incompetent ministers! of course, the fault lies with the people, never the government. I see LKY’s logic.
It is always a situation of, it could have been worse. If we didn’t have team A leaders, we won’t be in recession, we would be bankrupt by now. of course, we never know if that is true, because we have always had team A leaders.
A for Assholes…..
11) Zefly: I did an analysis of one of her articles – ‘A stayer to the end’
http://www.xtralicious.com/2008/10/05/fixing-the-opposition-even-beyond-the-grave/
Donaldson (#12) is correct – she has no solid case at all.
This article is no more than an elaborate offering to her big bosses.
We sure know why LHL and his stooges are screwing up.
They’re spending too much time fixing the opposition that they have lost sight of their purpose in governance.
Instead of spending my time thinking of what is the right policy for Singapore, I will spend all my time – I have to spend my time thinking of what is the right way to fix them, what is the right way to buy my supporters over…
We must continue to repeat this quote until it becomes like the National pledge.
MSM stands for Mass State Media, but it could also means Media’s Soul Mortgaged to whom all we know.
Chua Lee Hoong happened to be one of my favourite writer from ST though lately she is a bit quiet. What can you expect her to write in this down time? Surely ST won’t use the current situation to politicise?
As we have only one national newspaper it is difficult to be impartial here. Today paper seems to be doing not too badly from what I have read. They have presented a very neutral view of events and today’s P N Balaji’s article on minority-race PM was alright. Mr Brown was doing well until he was curtailed. There was a Alex something who wrote alot of anti-establishment articles and seem to go MIA few years back.
Our govt is like many Asian countries who can’t stand much dissent especially when it is publicise. Perhaps we Asians like to save face and can’t take much criticism.
Unless we loosen up and take things easy, our press will continue to be controlled. I read more juicy politically-laced articles from The Star than ST!
“Our govt is like many Asian countries who can’t stand much dissent especially when it is publicise. Perhaps we Asians like to save face and can’t take much criticism.”
Thank you for finding an excuse for our leaders. If they want to save their face, they should stay at home and not be politicians.
What is missing in this article is:
Why Singapore will not be the next Lehman Brothers and Iceland under the PAP leadership?
And the likely answer is: Track record and self-checking.
Does it really give any assurance when If a 158-year-old investment bank everybody thought was solid as a rock can collapse … ?
Don’t you think Lehman Brothers got Track record and self-checking as well?
The worst part is that when PAP fail, there is no other institution we can fall back on.
The worst part is that when PAP fail, there is no other institution we can fall back on. – Sarek_home (#36)
That’s why it is essential we do not become dependent on PAP and its public policies. We ought to be building up community-level resilience because we don’t have any credible leaders from the current alternative political parties. At least, new leaders may emerge through building community-level resilience.
34) Gilbert Goh Keow Wah on November 11th, 2008 2.26 pm
“Chua Lee Hoong happened to be one of my favourite writer from ST ”
No offense, but I find her article extraordinarily shallow. I’m not sure which is worse – her political biases or really the waste of page 2 space. A senior political writer should make readers think. Her articles just remind me of Sumiko Tan, except that the ones being depressed are not the writer, but the readers. I believe she holds some degree or masters in political science, but her views sound like she only read secondary school textbooks. Maybe she even believed Sang Nila Ultima did see Merlions on his way to Temasek.
Sorry, I know I’ve lost all my objectivity, but unqualified journalists rile me like no other.
Years and years ago, I got a scholarship to study in the UK.
Up till that point, in my impressionable years, I had been inculcated with how safe and progressive and racism-free Singapore was and how bad other countries were. Thanks to years of reading Straits Times.
You can imagine how worried I was abt the prospect of going over to London which had been described as a place of (bad) welfare, racism, trains that don’t work and where countless people go on strikes everytime things get a bit too tough.
As things turned out, it was the best decision I ever made.
A number of years later, I was sent to the UK again. This time, with my wife, who was facing the same trepidation as I was. She turned out all right too. In fact, I have always marvelled how she managed to get out of her shell and bloomed during her Masters program. In Singapore, the education system had made her feel small because she wasn’t in the “A-team” and I always felt she lacked self confidence. In the UK, she became more outspoken, and developed far better critical thinking skills. (for the record, I have not been able to win an argument since hah but that is a small price to pay for her own personal development).
Thank you for CLH indrectly telling us that our reserves are not infinite. A sum of $150 billion has already been pledged to guarantee bank deposits, A few hundred billion lost in CITI, MR, ABC Learning, UBS,Chartered, Statschp,,,,,,,,,, A hundred billion or two invested in properties here are there, surely it has come to a point our reserves are significantly less NOW!!!
Let vote in a new Govt. in the next election, we want a change
39) AhKao
And your kind of story would have gone a long way to opening up the mindsets of Singaporeans; years and years ago.
Isn’t it sad that you can share it with us, only now?
I believe Singaporeans with a thinking mind will want their children to have this freedom, the freedom to transmit information as well as receive information without prejudices of any sort.
41) gemami
I don’t know you personally, but this is the same story I have maintained for the longest time. My wife says it is one of my “soapbox” topics :)
But it isn’t easy to undo the effects of the Straits Times brainwashing. Even my wife wasn’t totally convinced about doing her Masters in the UK at first.
I analyzed the numerous articles by her.
I realised something.
MSM has these 2 sisters and the 2 other Fernandes brudders.
Lets analyse their contribution to the public. service to the public.
hhmmmmm…..
Chua Lee Hoong happened to be one of my favourite writer from ST though lately she is a bit quiet. What can you expect her to write in this down time? Surely ST won’t use the current situation to politicise? – Gilbert Goh (#34)
You may not be aware but it is quite well known that Ms Chua is a former ISD agent. Her former affiliation may won her the job of political editor at Straits Times, but it certainly does not qualify her for any benefit of the doubt with regards to what she writes on Singapore’s current affairs.
You can imagine how worried I was abt the prospect of going over to London which had been described as a place of (bad) welfare, racism, trains that don’t work and where countless people go on strikes everytime things get a bit too tough. – Ah Kao (#39)
London is a great place. Some of my friends who returned to Singapore from London still say they miss the collaborative intellectualism here, and they are irked by the information-hiding culture that is encouraged by unnecessary competition at work. It is really short-sighted to build a knowledge-based economy in Singapore without promoting the relevant social values that make it works.
42) AhKao
It’s one of the biggest barrier isn’t it, to undo the effects of not only the Straits Times but all the news mediums, the radio, tv and even tvmobile. One can never escape them.
;)
In UK, there are newspapers of various political traits, the Guardian (Labour inclined), the Telegraph (Conservative inclined), the Times (middle of the road), the Independent (Liberal inclined) and also the tabloits e.g. The Sun, The Mirror etc.
In SG, we also have many. But all from the same publisher, and all following the same party. There is absolutely no diversity of voices and opinions. Fear also imposes self-censorship on some journalists.
In London you can always get free newspapers like Today but without the pro govt slant in their articles of course.
Also ppl leave it in the Tube trains for others after they have read it. Here I think the elderly collecting newspapers would be hovering in the trains all the time if we did the same.
Hi Gemami Donaldson Ah Kao and Mai:
YA I do agree that ST is politically slanted towards the govt for reasons best known to the editor and govt.
Being a very controlled monopolistic country, this is not surprising but I am not condoning it.
A press should be free to report what it wants as it’s primary duty is to answer not only to the shareholders but to the paying readers.
Here in Sydney, there are at least three major state papers with The Australian being the national paper available nation wide. In NSW alone, we have The Daily Telegraph, Sydney Herald and Financial Times.
I tend to read all of them but of course choosing to buy one different paper randomly.
I realise that ST tends to provide a very narrow-based reporting regime. Many news in the world are not reported perhaps due to lack of space or other constraint. We read too much local and financial news lacking much on international news reporting.
Nevertheless, writers like Chua, Andy Ho, Lisa wrote well and are seasoned by the grain of time. I have saw some Chua’s writings that are somewhat hard hitting on the govt policies. Of course, I agreed with all here that this particular piece is abit politicised. Our reporters have a tough job of watching invisible OB markers when they write and trying to appease readers who prefer a more political-free paper.
Unless the govt gives the mandate for the paper to be free of political agenda, I am afriad this is the best we can get from St.
It would be difficult to fault CLH’s argument that Singapore could not avoid a recession owing to globalisation. The meltdown is a contagion that has hit advanced in Europe and huge economies China and Japan.
However, the issue that has not been addressed is what next. This is a test of the leadership’s calibre. The rainy day has arrived. Would the leaders who have been rewarded financially during good times be willing to tighten the belts together with the people? How could the surplus be used to stimulate the economy and ameliorate the hardships endured by the people?
49) Gilbert,
It is not what news is covered or left out per se. We all know there’s never enough paper to record everything that has happened around the world. That said, ST is one of the thickest newspapers I have EVER seen. My colleagues in the UK used to joke about it :)
But the main issue is the overall slant of the articles.
Often, you’ll find MANY other papers/reports elsewhere around the world cover the same subject without a partisan slant.
But the Straits Times coverage will often be slanted in ONE of the following bias:
a. how the rest of the world respects and want to emulate the UNIQUELY Singaporean system (developed by the PAP, of course)
b. subconciously how the rest of the world is so unsafe, unhappy, un-racially harmounious UNlike Singapore (thanks to the PAP, of course)
c. Yawning Bread even has an analysis of how EVEN WHEN THE ARTICLE IS NEGATIVE about Singapore, they can twist the facts and story to say otherwise.
Failing which:
d. why the how world is envious of Singapore and wishes to do it harm