Monday, December 29, 2008 9:08
10 important – and worrying – statistics of 2008
In Main Stories, Top Story, Uniquely Spore • 3,032 views • 25 Comments
Leong Sze Hian / Columnist
10 Negative statistics: Real wages down, unemployment up, productivity down, business costs up?
I refer to media reports about the Ministry of Manpower’s Labour Market Third Quarter 2008 Report. I have analysed the report, and would like to point out the following negative aspects of the statistics:
…. Average (mean) Monthly Nominal Earnings Per Employee fell by 15 per cent, from $4,316 in the first quarter to $3,674 in the third quarter.
…. Real Earnings fell even more by 17 per cent for the same period, from $3,982 to $3,307.
…. 45.1% of unemployed residents were age 40 and over. This category had the highest proportion of the unemployed, with those age below 30, and 30-39, at 31.0 and 23.9% respectively.
…. Change In Labour Productivity has fallen in the last four consecutive quarters to a record low of –9.6 per cent.
…. On an annualised quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP growth declined by 6.8 per cent, continuing the contraction experienced in the second quarter (-5.3).
….. Resident unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose to 3.3% in Sep 08 from 3.1% in Jun 08.
…. Resident Long-Term and Longer-Term Unemployment Rate (Non-seasonally adjusted) increased to 0.5 per cent in S08 from 0.4 per cent in S07.
….. Re-employment Rate of Resident Retrenched Workers (Within 6 months After Retrenchment) fell from 79% in Jun 08 to 62% Sep 08).
….. Hiring sentiment for Q4 08 was unfavourable as a net 3% among manufacturing firms predict headcount trimming in tandem with their gloomy business prospects prediction ahead.
….. Overall unit labour cost (ULC) rose for the tenth straight quarter, with the increase accelerating to 13% in Q3 08 from 10% in Q2 08. Unit business cost (ULC) went up by 12% in Q3 08.
In the light of the above statistics, I would like to suggest that we consider other measures in addition to the $600 million SPUR package, to address the rapidly deteriorating employment situation.
1 Positive announcement: Helping Singaporeans to downgrade?
I refer to the article “4,000 smaller HDB flats coming up” (ST, Dec 19).
The report said:
HDB deputy chief executive Tan Poh Hong said yesterday that the board has revived smaller flats on a large scale as “There are more people who will need to downgrade, as well as first-timer families who would also like to start with smaller flats to be financially prudent. underscores the issue that the affordability of HDB flats may be a concern for many Singaporeans.
Since there is a 30-month waiting period for those who downgrade to a smaller new HDB flat, how does this revival of building new smaller flats help “more people who will need to downgrade”?
As the household income ceiling of $2,000 and $3,000 for those purchasing 2 and 3-room flats respectively have not changed for many years despite rising prices of new HDB flats, some Singaporeans may be forced to buy larger flats than they can afford.
So, how can “families who would also like to start with smaller flats be financially prudent”?
Therefore, I would like to suggest that these policies be reviewed.
With the recession just starting, since the market-pricing policy links new HDB flat prices to re-sale prices which are at a record high now, will these new BTO flats’ prices be adjusted if resale prices are much lower when the flats are actually built in a few years’ time?
The statistic that as of October, 33,000 HDB concessionary loans (not counting HDB bank loans) are in arrears over three months, which is about 1 in 12 HDB concessionary loan mortgages, perhaps underscores the issue that the affordability of HDB flats may be a concern for many Singaporeans.
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25 Comments
Matheson
Lim Bock Heng
I heard from radio yesterday or the day before,
people are being encouraged to start a business.
there was this aunty who was scared will be retrenched. So, she registered a business.
I think this will help lower unemployment, on paper at least.
If more heed this advice, I think unemployment can become zero, on paper.
wow, singapore unemployment rate zero in recession ??!!!?
get what the …. i mean?
Tan Soon Tong
I hope TC reserve can be used to offset lift upgrading costs to flat leaseholders, that is, people who bought flats.
I hope Rentals for companies be lowered and tax lowered.
I hope highly paid people salary get cut as much as is humanly possible to save more jobs.
Zefly (aka Joshua Chiang)
With regards to HDB income ceiling, I also feel the current system is ridiculously obsolete. Familie which make 1-2k per month are now not even middle income earners but low income.
I feel that there isn’t anything wrong for middle-income earners to want to stay in a three roomer, esp if they have only one or two children. Or, say, in my case, if I were single and 35, and making an income of more than 3k, why should I stay in a 4roomer which is much bigger than what I need? So maybe to qualify for three rm flat I should earn less then…
I think income ceilings should be calculated on how much a family should be spending on paying mortgage a month. If someone is making say, $3100 a month, and yet have to pay up to 40% of his income per month for a 4roomer, that’s ridiculous. 20% of income should be the norm. And every 3 years, the income ceiling should be revised based on the income trends, family sizes, etc.
SZ
however, does it really help the people since these flats are sold at ridiculous pricing?
Zefly (aka Joshua Chiang)
5)SZ
Good point. I was asking a better informed non partisan friend the other day. New flats are still priced significantly lower than resale. (excluding Duxton) But of course you have to wait in the queue. I believe there is a very complex system at work here, and HDB isn’t completely at fault for the high RESALE market value. In the past, the population was exploding, and new flats have to be constantly built to meet the demand, and they were affordable. Then population growth slowed, and suddenly we find demand for new flats dropping, as almost everyone got a roof over their heads liao. I mean, if you are HDB you will not want to overbuild right, and I think that is when the whole resale thingy started. Honestly, we are also at fault for the crazy resale prices.
Very simplistic explanation… but I think we have to consider all these factors before we can have a solution. You want cheaper flats you just have to wait a bit longer. But I feel the first step is to overhaul the dated HDB income-ceiling structure. A First-World stat board shouldn’t have a system that hasn’t changed in years.
aiyoyo
aiyoyo
if the recent sinking investment (loss incur) not happen,
not sure how many people can be benefitted??
aiyoyo
Resale HDB is artifically high!…………..time to be realistic as PRIVATE resale is also down……..Banks will have to re-evaluate and not base on current valuation…..what is the point of high valuation when you cannot get the LOAN that was available in good times!
thecompulsivepianist
my focus would be on the decreasing real wage.
we’ve been encouraged to go for house brands, no frills, take frozen meat. It’s clear this was coming and now being proven in statistics( thank you Mr. Leong) yet nothing is done to address this.
Beng Hu Tin
Thanks to Mr Leong for this very informative article.
Very good insights and analysis.
The main problem, is actually Apathy By Choice (ABC).
Apathy by ignorance is less of a problem than the above.
I feel that there should be a statistic on ABCs.
ABC : some purposely ignore the tough questions and hope that these questions will go away on their own. They do not feel comfortable facing these questions. They hold a stand that is firm and deep rooted. Its like complete bias.
Tough questions exist and is now everywhere on the net.
Some how, some people prefer to ignore.
We need to interview these ABCs and document their psychology and mentality so that the non-apathetic by choice (NBC)s can understand why these humans exist.
Is there incentives that cause ABCs to be ABCs?
Do they have vested interests?
There must be strong reasons why they are ABCs.
why is oil price not linked to transport hike?
why is transport fare not lowered when oil price has dropped to very cheap level?
How can people choose to ignore these questions?
Lee Pao Pit
Regarding questions that beg to be asked but not asked by ABCs,
I think their lives have been blessed so far. They do not think they will kenna tragic things in future or forever. So, they no think there is need to be bothered by such thingies.
Some maybe they lack a sense of bao qing tian in them. afterall, no one owes anyone any living. so, why be concerned when not affecting oneself?
However, I need to point out to ABCs :
1. For case of mini bon bons, the broader implication is about rectifying a system that needs to be improved IF indeed there is mis-selling or if there is possible improvement to regulation work. so a lot of IFs. nevertheless, there is a need to be concerned about such issues. In future, we all may be investing or need to invest. a better system is better for all.
2. what does not affect u now, does not mean you will be forever immune to it. Wealth cannot be guaranteed forever. Misfortunes befall on people. One day you may not be immuned. One day you may be affected. being apathetic is not socially responsible in a way and being bochap is not wise for the long term.
3. Righteous-spirit is important to a society. Without it , society becomes cold blooded.
My challenge to Apathetic By Choice people is for them to answer the questions that beg to be asked in a way that you can convince the 33.3 with your intellectual answers. If you find that you cannot succeed in this, you may realise there is something that needs to be improved and its time you face the problem and not avoid it.
It is a year befitting of numbers and statistics.
There are so many statistics, information, data of finanical reports being dished out to the public that I have started to lose interest.
Hahaha
Yes, I agree on the need review HDB’s income salary rules for flat sizes. However, one wonders if the day will come when the decision makers will act on such feedback from the people. This is especially so when the decision makers are not directly affected by the rules they set and there is no incentive for them to understand the pain their policies are causing. E.g. how many ministers own or live in HDB? How many ministers depend on public transport during peak hours to get to/from work? How many ministers have to meet pre-set KPIs or failing which they will get the boot?
To #1 Matheson on December 29th, 2008 9.57 am
My experience is similar to yours, perhaps we both happened to be in similar industry sectors. Nominal wages have not increase in the past 10+ years, since 1997 financial crisis. Combined with inflationary effects, real wages have actually shrank. Add to that the shortened economic cycles and longer economic trough (recessions) of the new millennium, even professionals, management, executives and the likes are not immune to sudden economic hardship.
To #10 Beng Hu Tin on December 29th, 2008 2.40 pm
Some examples of the ABC’s rationale that I’ve come across are as follow.
1. Due to personal circumstances, need MP to write to HDB to appeal for deferment or re-structure HDB loan payment. Therefore, die-die must vote PAP in GRC because of that person’s perception that HDB will process appeal letters from PAP MPs faster and is more likely to approve it.
2. Life is good. Big ticket items are paid partially or fully by baby-boomer parents who happened to benefit from the Singapore’s 70’s-80’s boom years. Both baby-boomer parents and adult-child are pro-PAP as they have benefited from the “PAP created wealth”. Actually, the adult-child would not be able to afford the good life without their parents’ backing in the current economic situation. When pressed, the “good lifers” sometimes raised that since they and their parents did well, those struggling have only themselves or their parents to be blamed.
3. “Tall poppies get chopped” syndrome. I observed this amongst my younger acquaintances. I suspect it may be related to them being well-indoctrinated by the National Education syllabus not to be seen to stand for anything. Sadly, this group may “taichi” the speaking up (of their requests, preferences and opinions) to a more outspoken member, but simultaneously ostracising that same member. These young folks think they are being street-smart by assuring their win-in-both-ways. E.g. Should the authority-figure (e.g. teacher or manager) disapprove, they are seen as toeing-the-line and not trouble-makers. However, should the authority-figure approve of the request, they will also benefit from the blanket coverage of the privilege offered. Initially, I was shocked by the prevalence of such an attitude, but now I think that it is an insidious part of the typical Singaporean psyche. Ashamed to admit that I, too, am increasingly guilty of such “silent majority” behaviour when mixing with such a cowardly group.
4. “Singapore has changed so much, that I no longer fit in” syndrome. Personally I belong to this category. Years ago, as a young graduate, I was an active volunteer “to repay society” for the benefit of a tertiary education (i.e. the acknowledgement that such education is not possible without public funding). With the influx of cheap foreign “on-paper qualified” “talents”, employers (especially untalented kiasu kiasi Singaporean bosses) demand work hours that exclude such volunteerism and eat drastically into one’s social time. I do not find such work-life imbalance acceptable in the long run. I no longer seek to change a society to which I don’t feel that I belong. My plan is to migrate in a few years’ time, so why rock the boat and leave a record that may mar my exit plans. Nowadays, the most I would do is rant online, share with off-line friends about alternatives to MSM news and do the occasional small kind deed for strangers in my neighbourhood. That said, I’d still “vote for change” while I’m still here in Singapore.
stats are one of the few things which are hard to show substantial proof, backdated, and of questionable agenda. shows one side of the story, but not the other.
moshedyan
[i] Lim Bock Heng on December 29th, 2008 10.03 am I heard from radio yesterday or the day before,
people are being encouraged to start a business.
there was this aunty who was scared will be retrenched. So, she registered a business.
I think this will help lower unemployment, on paper at least
[/i]
yeap our government is very very good @ changin figures
zero umemployments
the ROC have 1 million buisness registration everyday
everyday many aunties/uncle become paperless towkay/towkayneos
some become chapjikees towkays
some are footballs beter towkays
some even 4Ds towkays
working only on weekends
rakin a fortunes
helpin ahlong big ears rakin more fortunes
the ministry of manpower must be feelin REAL REAL proud…
loop
How about shoplifting? I believed this also contributes to higher cost of living. I’ve seen mothers pretending to push a pram for their baby but in fact make it easier for them to hide things they’ve stolen.
Stats on Construction industry
I like to get clarification on the news that was.
the construction industry association thingy person said
for 2009 the construction people will have many projects on their plate to handle.
and then the news reported an analyst saying there will be a drop in projects in 2009.
wow, i get over bombasticated by the news that was.
anyone know more about the thingy?
Stat cheetstics
Good upternoon lady und gentersman many many,
if i say there are more than 500 people who turned up for free mee siam ,
but in fact there were 1000, is that a false report? No. It was still right – 1000 is more than 500.
lesson learnt.
thank you you.
Amused
This article has shed more light on one article in Today online regarding the apparent “popularity” of 4-room flats. The wage-ceiling limitation is a big detriment to buyers who want to be financially prudent.
That, and HDB’s assumption that it is mostly eldery retirees that would be interested in the studio flats. (As can be seen from their “consideration” in fitting studio flats with “elderly-friendly features”.) This deepens the stereotype of “HDB Studio = Home for the aged”.
Also, if the average household is only using 20% of their income to pay HDB mortgages as they claimed, I wonder why is it then that there are so many buyers who are having problems paying (the number is way higher than the unemployment figure).
Faircomment
In the early days, HDB 3-room flats were sold for only $7,200/-. No one complained about the rule on income ceiling for applicants because they really enjoyed a big subsidy.
Now that new HDB flats are sold based on prices of resale flats which are set by the market, this income ceiling rule should be abolished. New HDB flats are not priced based on cost.
HDB is now operating like a private developer – out to maximise profit. While developers give discounts, HDB thinks “market subsidy” sounds better politically. This so-called “market subsidy” given by HDB is just an opportunity cost, not a real cost or subsidy in the real sense of the word “subsidy”. Nowhere in the world does anyone use the uniquely Singapore term “market subsidy”.
Faircomment
Try to Google the term “market subsidy” and all the links lead only to Singapore websites.
cjc
The economic situation is rough, because Singapore is especially vulnerable to the global economic demand crunch since our exports is about 200% of the GDP [1,2].
In comparison, although China’s exports is hugh in terms of raw numbers, $1.2 trillion, it accounts only for about 40% of their GDP at $3.2 trillion [3].
[1] http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2798.htm (exports= $313 bil, GDP=$168bil)
[2] http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/economics-business/country-profile-160.html
[3] http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/18902.htm
tiredsingaporean
20) Faircomment on December 31st, 2008 4.29 pm
“subsidy”. Nowhere in the world does anyone use the uniquely Singapore term “market subsidy”.
What subsidy are they talking about now? Didn’t MBT recently said that the price of HDB flats are now based on market value? I really pitied those who had recently placed their booking on those sky rocketed price at the pinnacle, a site which was previously occupied by those really subsidized flats by the early garment. Now, they turning it into a multi millions HDB high condo to maximize and profiteering from the people instead.
sarek_home
“market subsidy” = discount
George
The issues of the day in most people mind are job, worry to loose it if one has one, worry not finding one if one just started in the labour market. The second issue is keeping a roof over one head. Similarly to the former, either looking for one or trying to keeping one. This recession is really biting hard. I don’t know whether I am more observance but I seem to see more homeless around HDB block at night and in Parks. More people are begging also. If this recession carry on until the end of the year, I am afraid we are going to see more people loosing their job.I think the gahment should consider additional help for family about to loose their home and help family with young children stay together.

Hello Friends,
Since ‘97 financial crisis,
I have lost touch what should have been my salary by now.
to me, since then, wage is about the same.
‘97 to ‘01 to ‘08 – i really not sure what progress there has been to my wage which was $5000 at around ‘99 and then salary maintained around 5k to 6.5k in this period of about 10 years.
Plus several periods of mid term unemployment, my average income is much less than 4k.
Really, I hope for more good years.