Monday, December 8, 2008 8:01

Fed up with statistics? (Part 2)

In Top Story, Uncle Leong, Uniquely Spore • 2,085 views • 26 Comments

Leong Sze Hian / Columnist

I refer to the article “Let’s celebrate the diaspora” (Today, Nov 1).

It states that “Singapore suffers the paradox of being one of the world’s smallest populations that not too long ago, reportedly, had one of the highest migrant outflows. In 2002, a survey estimated Singapore’s net migration figure at 26.11 migrants per 1,000 citizens. This year, though, it has lowered its estimate to 6.88 migrants per 1,000 citizens”.

With about 3 million citizens, does it mean that the number of migrants is about 20,640 (3 million divided by 1,000 times 6.88) ?

According to the Ministry of Home Affairs, 1,000 Singaporeans give up their citizenship in a year, and the number of people in Singapore who applied for a Certificate of No Criminal Conviction (CNCC), which is needed to apply for permanent residency overseas, exceeded 1,000 a month to reach 12,707 last year from 4,996 in 1998.

According to the Department of Statistics’ Yearbook of Statistics 2008, 10,848 Singaporeans and Malaysians withdrew their CPF in 2007 because they left Singapore permanently.

Since Singaporeans can only withdraw their CPF after they have given up their citizenship and obtained citizenship from another country, how many of the 10,848 were Singaporeans?

According to the article, “Solve CPF withdrawal issue with Singapore” in the Star (Malaysian newspaper) of 12 November, “Under the present CPF withdrawal regulations, Malaysians from Peninsular Malaysia are only able to withdraw their CPF savings at the age of 50 if they have not been working in the republic for the last two years.”

Why is it that our employment statistics cannot tell the difference between Singaporeans and permanent residents (PRs), our population statistics can, and our CPF withdrawal statistics cannot tell the difference between Singaporeans and Malaysians ?

Statistics on helping Singaporeans in the recession

It has been said that we will not pump-prime the economy like what other countries are doing, because Singapore is a small economy, and thus most of the pump-priming (60 cents out of every dollar) may go out of the country.

I also refer to the $ 600 million for retraining workers and $ 2.3 billion loan and credit facilities to help Singaporeans and companies.

The “loan and credit facilities” are as I understand it, generally guarantees that the Government will share the risk of default with the lending financial institutions.

Does it mean that it may cost the Government very little for a start, and may not cost very much depending on the eventual defaulted loans that cannot be recovered ?

As to the statement that, “The move to take on more risk in such schemes is a tried and tested solution which was implemented during the last major downturn in 2001”, the current financial crisis may be very different as there was no severe credit crunch and global asset meltdowns affecting financial institutions in 2001.

Did such measures actually increase the amount of lending?

The fact that the share of funding had to be increased gradually from 50 per cent in 2001 to 80 per cent in 2004, may indicate that it was not very successful. And of course, by 2004, the downturn may more or less have been over.

How much did it finally cost the Government in terms of defaulted loans non-recovery guarantees?

Can we have the statistics and regular statistical updates in the months ahead ?

What is the breakdown of how the $ 2.3 billion was derived ?

To what extent will financial institutions lend in a declining recessionary environment, as the merits and viability of the borrower may still be paramount ? After all, a loan that turns bad is still a loss, not withstanding that the Government may be sharing part of the loss.

Re-training works?

With regards to the $600 billion package for retraining workers, I understand that from past experience, such re-training schemes were not very successful, for the simple reason that there were hardly any jobs for workers or the unemployed after a few months re-training, as the recession may last for a few years.

With analysts predicting that unemployment could hit 4.5 per cent next year, up from the current 2.2 per cent ; the number of unemployed may rise to about 130,000 next year from the current 64,500.

How many of these unemployed may have the luxury of savings to tide them by whilst they go for re-training and get just $480 a month ($4 an hour x 6 hours per day x 20 days) for low-skilled workers, and up to $ 1,000 a month for the higher-skilled ?

How many Singaporeans can survive on $ 480 or $ 1,000 a month ?

In so doing, we may only be helping those with savings to tide them by, instead of those who may really be in dire need of a decent paying job.

How realistic is it to expect most companies to keep their workers by sending them for subsidised training, in a recession that may last a few years ?

Contradictory statement by minister

As to Labour chief Lim Swee Say’s remarks that, “Right now any forecast …. will be just pure speculation. Nobody can say with a sufficiently high level of confidence what’s going to happen to the global economy”; it may be somewhat self-contradictory as it makes one wonder on what basis did the Government analyse that the measures that have just been announced are appropriate and will be adequate?

Surely, a range of forecast from worse to best scenarios may help in the formulation of policies, review and feedback.

The problem with not lowering costs like reducing GST, and using the targeted assistance approval, may be that those needing financial assistance keeps increasing as the middle-class is squeezed into poverty, some may fall through the cracks, and financial assistance may always never be enough under our system of self-reliance as a fundamental guiding principle.

In this connection, assistance funding like the Citizens’ Consultative Committees’ (CCC) Comcare Fund for needy residents, is not based on how many and how much is needed, but rather on a fixed budget of $52,000 per constituency per year, such that some constituencies have to ask now for additional top-ups.

So, even those providing assistance may find that there may always not be enough to go around.

Instead of just once-off measures to mitigate the financial crisis, I would like to suggest that we have a thorough review of the fundamental root problems affecting Singaporeans even before the start of the current crisis – such as the estimated 40,000 in arrears for more than three months on HDB and HDB bank loans, the 750,000 who do not have any form of medical insurance, the estimated two-thirds who can’t even meet their CPF Minimum Sum at age 55 without pledging their hones, and the estimated 100,000 families in need of financial assistance, etc.

———-

A group of Nanyang Technological University students has just released a book on Mr Leong Sze Hian’s letters to the local press throughout the last 8 years. Covering 9 major issues which Singaporeans are concerned about, the book is now available at all major bookstores, including Borders, MPH and Times.

The book is titled, “Issues That Matter – Uniquely Singapore: F1 or F9?” with a foreword by Mr Tan Kin Lian.

It is sold at $15.90.

Related posts:

  1. Fed up with statistics (Part One)
  2. Budget debate statistics: Uniquely Singapore?
  3. Unemployment – important statistics missing from media reports
  4. Suicide statistics – the young and the stressed?
  5. Economy recovering, but labour statistics getting worse?



26 Comments

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Steven Gan Lim Say
Dec 8, 2008 9:56

Lim Swee Say say that he urge companies to give priorities to locals (assumed meaning is Residents + Citizens and not citizens only) by saying, I quote “We’re talking about rank-and-file workers who are, by and large, replaceable. Our message is – give priority to the local workers. Not only will you help us minimise unemployment in Singapore, but more importantly, it makes business sense for your company.”

At the same time, this is what Gan said what he heard from a company head :
“Acting Manpower Minister Gan Kim Yong related a conversation he had with a company head.

“If he were asked to employ only Singaporeans, his costs would have gone up and he would have had no choice but to shift the whole company out of Singapore to China,” said Mr Gan.”

So, my question is, by URGING, what is the real effect , if any, in the protection of rice bowl for locals (residents + citizens) ?

Also, many have signed up as ntuc members. What has the employee union done for members in a concrete and quantifiable way?

What is the real effect of urging?

Selamat,
steven gan lim say

Anila
Dec 8, 2008 10:02

After the constraints and concerns are re-iterated, that companies claim they would ‘migrate’ if they only hire singaporeans and pr, what we the union members want to hear and see is

SOLUTION.

Happy
Hari Raya Haji !

blackfeline
Dec 8, 2008 11:26

URGING? ya for sure…for a silly looking minister to BEG employers to do the right thing is ridiculous! We sincerely urge him to step down!

Gilbert Goh
Dec 8, 2008 12:21

YA good article by Mr Leong as usual.

I have worked in CDC before and some of their training programmes are merely cover-up i.e. send ing them for upgrading even though there is no jobs available after that. Many jobless workers got the cert felt that there was much time and effort wasted here. Of course, they benefitted from the training allowance however pathetic it is. Those who sign up for taxi driving, nursing aid, security and retail/hospitality sector have better chances of getting re employment. Those who signed up for early childhood, computer skills, administration have a tougher chance at re employment.

Of course, those who are aged above 50 years old face mammonth challenges at re employment than younger jobless counterparts. Our employment act is still very archaic and workers’ rights are often left out in the hiring process by employers.

I really feel that our government’s constant fear that companies will pull out when they can only employ Singaporeans is unfounded. Though some may do so, many I believe will be able to overcome the challenge. Workers’ wages are only a component of a company’s overall cost expenditure for running a business.There are also other variant factors such as rental, cost of material, profit margin, etc to consider.

I believe that we could be the only country in the world with such a phenomenon – protecting the employment rights of foreigners more than the locals. It is both shocking and unethical. Not only do we have no minimal wage rights provided by many developed countries but that we are poorly supported by workers’ unions. There is this real feeling that the govt is constantly shoring up support for the employers at the disadvantage of workers.

moshedyan
Dec 8, 2008 12:22

limsiasuay is just your typical overfed idiot
who on earth made him a minister
only leekuanyew knows
worst of all
he can tell us
his cpf savings is so riched
with so many zeros
can we bring our cpf many zeros printout slip
to go ntuc and ^otang^ first for groceries
than pay back when we collected all our nesting zeros?

Eastman01
Dec 8, 2008 12:34

During the last election in 2006, when Minister Mah Boh Tan came to my house, the first question he ask me were “are you a Singapore Citizen or PR”. he mentioned there are many PRs staying in my neighbourhood. Sort of implying that if I am a PR, no point talking to me.

I am a Singaporean and therefore he continued talking.

Both now non-election time, they say give preference to locals (Singaporean plus PR), such twist and turn attitudes are disgusting and disappointing.

andrew
Dec 8, 2008 12:56

Uniquely Singapre,how to retench foreign labour when I am told many industries are still employing foreign workers at this point in time. There is even a greater necessity at this time to save operating cost in view of the downturn in ecomony, for the lower scale type of industry. The service and transport industry , the coffee shops and the food court need foregn workers . MOM will certainly have the data and are aware of this fact.

Uniquely Singapore, the high flyers foreign talents particularly those in the finance industry are asked to go home. The minister need not stress this fact because these companies operate on a hire and fire basis. When the going is good , they hire and when they are down, they fire.

Uniquely Singapore, what is happening is the irretrievable change in employment profile. Certain type of industry will be dependent on foreign labour for the forseeabe future such as lorry driver, bus drivers, nurses, factory hands the hotel industry because singaporean and to some extend, malaysian now are withdrawing from these sectors of the industry. The foreign labour has crowded the job site and will stay put, come rain or shine. To these group of people, there is no job at all at home, whether there is sub prime crisis or not does not touch them. The big bosses at home will be pleased and will adjust to this development since the cost of operation is lower. The government is tacitly encouraging this developement of foreign labour with more housing clusters for them, even floating houses was suggested. Scrutinised the various minister statements , you will notice that there is a simialr pattern, it is all lip services. Many bosses are taking the advantage of this stupid govenrment policy and to their benefit.

Observer (SG-HK)
Dec 8, 2008 13:06

I have decided from here on to take on a different perspective on all the mishaps and hardcore tactics (including this CPF withdrawal policy issue) that this current government had deployed and committed the last few years. Not to totally discredit them for some of their good deeds which are few in between (nevertheless with Strings attached). Personally, I had enough of my fair share of ranting and commenting and giving suggestions as to how it can be avoided, what needed to be change, how we think it can be deployed etcetera and all but had fallen on deaf ears.

Whether it is political or social issues that had been in public or cyberspace discourse (at least in this site and others); on one hand it is true that a majority of us felt betrayed and left out in some ways (obviously there are some who are in concurrence with the government, that I think we can only respect their personal views to say the least since most if not all of us are advocating freedom of speech, expression and choice). The TCs, the minibond saga, the over priced HDB, the price hike (GST, ERP, and Utilities), the in-competencies of the internal security forces (referring to the MS escape), the foreign worker immigration policies that had all but affects the native employment perspective…etc. Most importantly, helping the less-fortunate and dire straits fellow citizenry (I will reserve my comment for this particular issue until the 2009 budget is being unveiled). I do not think any amount of ranting will have an immediate impact or bring around changes that we so hope for. I believed a lot had been said and there are no short of workable suggestions (not taken in or advice not heeded by the Government).

I think if we just continue to allow them to exude their arrogance and ignorance, it is not such a bad thing after all; as it provided the citizenry more ammunition to vote wisely in election time (given the chance to vote). We must constantly remind ourselves of these mishaps and the relevant authority refusal to be more transparent and accountable. While continuing our effort in doing our part as concerned Singaporeans for the betterment of this country, sort of citizen watch; I would like to suggest to TOC or other blog sphere to compile a list of all these mishaps over the years and have it published just immediately after the announcement of election. This is a stark reminder to all and to encourage the sharing with our closest kin, friends, colleagues and neighbors and even strangers that we should do the RIGHT thing to enforce changes. Para-phrasing from the infamous John Lennon once said: IF YOU DREAM ALONE, IT IS ONLY A DREAM. IF WE DREAM TOGETHER, WE CAN MAKE THE DREAM A REALITY.

aiyoyo
Dec 8, 2008 13:28

aiyoyo

urge here, urge there,

why dont come up with effective measures?

why make commoners life so pressure, so expensive?

in the 70s, 80s (example) isnt life not so tough during that time?

PAYING for ELITEs?

can we pay ourselves instead?

aiyoyo

teo soh lung
Dec 8, 2008 13:32

I think the PAP do not have any long term plans as regards population and employment. The stop at two policy was reveresed only recently even though they knew there was a shortage of workforce decades back. Now they say “get rid” of foreign workers first and before the locals. Having collected so much foreign workers’ levies and earning accolades for having an efficient workforce (largely foreigners) not so long ago, why should they be booted out so unceremoniously. Reality is we, both foreigners and locals are digits in this society. We are all dispensable while the ministers are not.

Training biz
Dec 8, 2008 14:11

While Gan heard from a company head,
me heard something else from a company head.
me was working for a edu sort of company that trains people on skills from 1 software company’s product suite . the boss told me, do u know that i know nothing about this software or company ? do u know how i got this business…. for my personal salvation, i cannot reveal further. what i would reveal is :

1. he is deeply into religious charity works – visiting terminally ill people and tell people about his work. He sells cookies to his employees and collects the proceeds for charity under his name.

2. he tells his employee he is a millionaire but wears simply and humbly although he reminds people with his luxury car by wearing a cap of that car brand.

3. he keeps reminding people of his past glorious days.

but if you resign and he threatens you he can just give a tel call to bosses in singapore and bar you from being employed.

sorry, may be a bit off-center. cannot help it as it brings back memories of this training boss.

ronin
Dec 8, 2008 14:20

Lim SS is just as untalented as his predecessor, Lim BH. Their only “solution” to unemployment is: Work Longer Hours for Less Pay!! They “retrain” the unemployed and stuff them away in jobs the unemployed don’t like. The latest job “opening” is pre-school teachers. Do they even realise that not everyone is suited to be pre-school teachers. Both Lims just want to get people off the unemployed statistics, so that they can show their bosses that they deserved their multi-million-dollar bonuses.

MIW loves to use confusing statistics to fool the masses. For instance, in the town council investment fiasco, they said 0.8% of 14 town councils’ aggregate investments are in worthless structured bonds. They don’t want to tell us what percentage of EACH town council’s investments are in such worthless shit.

Did you read Saturday’s Straits Times’ interview with WDA’s CEO? The CEO admitted that those unemployed placed on “retraining” are NOT counted as unemployed. Thus thousands of unemployed are removed from the denominator and numerator of unemployment statistics….making the % of unemployed much lower than reality. That is what I call, lying with statistics!!!

Nabush Es Chees Bahs
Dec 8, 2008 14:22

Singapore’s pro business policies and model is excellent for businesses.

It would be very tough for companies to heed the call
as companies can always just use this excuse:

got to hire the cheaper labor. else we migrate.

‘S’ pass, ‘EP’ all makes hiring very easy.

PR also very fast processed.

since when did the term ‘local’ = pr + citizen?
I agree that this is the current definition but wonder since when the definition became this.

the way i see it, for companies to continue hiring foreigners, they can 1st recruit foreigners who say they will apply for PR. like this, every few short months, their foreigner headcount becomes a local headcount?

i wonder.

i believe in doing things a step at a time – companies should retain singaporeans 1st than PRs. If can, then keep PRs. Afterall, citizens have sacrificed and done their part to earn the citizenship, not just in the form of paying income tax or cpf. why swallow whole? 1 step at a time.

Overclock PC
Dec 8, 2008 14:24

This is simple, solution on the table will be cut CPF employer rate by 1/2 pct point or abolish employer contributon. Every business will be happy to employ only SINGAPOREANS need apply + economy will heading north towards golen age period. (:

Do these manpower top elites will not dare to reduce CPF rates or they are actually here to grandstand?

Palpit must Cease
Dec 8, 2008 16:39

12) ronin on December 8th, 2008 2.20 pm

… Did you read Saturday’s Straits Times’ interview with WDA’s CEO? The CEO admitted that those unemployed placed on “retraining” are NOT counted as unemployed. Thus thousands of unemployed are removed from the denominator and numerator of unemployment statistics….making the % of unemployed much lower than reality. …

————-

Someone ever asked if getting the Unemployed to register a sole proprietorship will lower the Unemployment rate.

The Moral of the Story : TRANSPARENCY on UNEMPLOYMENT Statistics reporting process is good for the people to understand these numbers. For this, Mr Leong, you have my support – I think you are the man!

Frustrated
Dec 8, 2008 16:51

During SARS in 2003, my former company retrenched Sporeans first and kept the foreign talents employed. This is because companies can save money as companies do not have to pay CPF for FTs. So this time around, FTs should go first if there is a need to retrench workers. Indeed companies especially local companies should look after the interest and welfare of Sporeans first. Sporeans working in other countries are often the first one to be axed, hence it is only fair the FTs should be the first one to go should there be a need.

How many piece of Transparencies needed?
Dec 8, 2008 16:56

TC.
Flat costing.
UnEmployment Rate.
Electricity pricing.
ICA (Gerald).
Retirement.
:
:

I cry myself to sleep each night ….i comfort myself by thinking on the bright side – the country is paying 80 plus PEOPLEs’ Representatives to voice up for the people wor. no worry wan. they do their job wan. The people had spoken.

BeWary
Dec 8, 2008 17:01

Voting and having the present government in power is a MISHAP
Dont u feel the pressure of living paying more for your food
Feel the world recession breathing down on you
They breathing down on you with cost increases
Of course u have a choice in the next election
Since we have idiots like lim swee say
it does not matter if you vote an opposition – no difference
at lease your voice is heard

Tew N S
Dec 8, 2008 18:36

Vote in Mr Leong to question them in parliament. Mr Leong is better any time than the Lim and the Gan which I consider them traitors to the workers. Union chief must not sit in govt. job, this is conflict of interest !!!!!!!!!!!!! some more he feels rich every month by looking at the Cpf statement !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Govt tax on TC operating surplus
Dec 8, 2008 20:01

Just realized that govt taxation is applied on TC operating surplus! Is the high TC S&C charges another form of indirect tax borne by residents?

IMHO, TC should at most have 1 year’s operating costs in their reserves and not have a sinking fund. They should raise funds for each project. This will reduce excessive expenses like re-tiling common walkway when the old tiles are still ok or unnecessary “upgrades”. Excess should be refunded to residents. E.g. Allocated to relieve the low-income households of their TC S&C bills. Using numbers from a TC’s 06/07 report, even if the excess is distributed evenly amongst households in the TC, 1-room flats may save around 40% and 3-roomers 20% of this monthly cost.

The Singapore Daily » Blog Archive » Daily SG: 9 Dec 2008
Dec 9, 2008 11:47

[...] Strangers in a Strange Land – Yawning Bread: Muddy Singapore swallows China workers [1] [2] [Thanks udders] – i have succumbed to peer pressure: Muddy Singapore swallows China workers – TOC: Fed up with statistics? (Part 2) [...]

The Singapore Daily » Blog Archive » Weekly Roundup: Week 50
Dec 13, 2008 11:00

[...] Strangers in a Strange Land – Yawning Bread: Muddy Singapore swallows China workers [1] [2] [Thanks udders] – i have succumbed to peer pressure: Muddy Singapore swallows China workers – TOC: Fed up with statistics? (Part 2) [...]

Dar Mee
Dec 14, 2008 16:08

Dear Mr Leong,

to reply to your question, YES , I am absolutely Fed Up to hear (nose).

thanks.

Dar Mee
Dec 14, 2008 16:08

Dear Mr Leong,

to reply to your question, YES , I am absolutely Fed Up to here (nose).

thanks.

Leong Sze Hian
Dec 17, 2008 21:03

Business Times – 17 Dec 2008

$2b in govt funding for SMEs runs into hurdles

Banks reluctant to lend despite govt schemes: companies

By CHEW XIANG

(SINGAPORE) Over $2 billion in government funding support for local companies hasn’t managed to clear the credit clog, said participants at a seminar yesterday organised by the Singapore Manufacturers’ Federation.

The seminar, featuring presentations by Spring Singapore and DBS Bank, was to publicise the government’s recently enhanced financing schemes for SMEs and to get feedback from companies.

Participants – mostly from small and medium-sized companies and from the manufacturers’ federation – said credit lines were still being pulled and that applications for the various schemes weren’t getting approved by banks, which remain reluctant to lend.

Just 7 per cent of SMEs benefited from government-funded financing schemes, according to the recent SME Development Survey 2008 report.

Naiche
Dec 25, 2008 22:21

I feel that this re-training thing is really nonsensical. For example, if I had all the expertise and relevant skills and yet got laid off because of the economic situation, why would you want to re-train someone outside my trade to do my job. There is no job anymore!

And about this urging. What good does it do? If I’m an employer, my key concern is bottom line. If by hiring foreigners, I beef up that bottom line, I will do so in the interest of myself and my shareholders. I will NOT bend to your `urging’. If the minister is sincere in helping the locals, do what the govt is most proficient in…..hurt the pocket. Increase the levy for hiring foreign workers. No need to go the emotional route (by urging). Go the business route!

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