Ash Tong / Guest Writer
I have always taken great discomfort, when MSM and biased marketing talk always refer to the pricing of new flats as “Discount to the market” or “Cheaper than comparative condominiums in the area’.
The Ang Mo Kio and Bishan projects are priced at above $400,000 for a new 4 room flat, applicant for these projects are subjected to the $8,000-income cap. A simple break down of the math.
Gross Income: $8000
CPF: $1600
CPF into OA for housing needs: $1082.56
Nett Cash: $6400
4 room Natura Loft project in Bishan: 465k
Monthly installment based on 30 years 2.6% calculation: $1861.38
Hence each family would have to top up $778.82 into their CPF for their housing each month, which makes up to 12 per cent of their disposable income. If you change the calculations for a 20-year repayment, the percentage of their disposable income used to top their CPF moves into the 20 per cent range.
Ideally, all applicants for these projects would have a perfect gross income of 8k, and the flats would be affordable. However, often couples with incomes below 8k, might be unsuitably stretched, by buying such flats.
As a side note, it should be no surprise that this project was awarded to the highest tender.
CPF housing grant for family living within 2km are only eligible for DBSS projects, and additional housing grants are only eligible for families who earn below a $4,000 gross income. Given the number of DBSS projects that have been released in the past year, it defeats the purpose of encouraging families to stay at close proximity as it comes with a huge price because these projects cost 400k and upwards. I do not recall any Non-DBSS projects in mature estates released in the past year.
The additional housing grants equates to lip service as no sane couple could afford a DBSS project with a 4k gross income.
All other new flats are not eligible for any grants as they are sold, “at a great discount”. The argument would not hold, when we look deeper into the figures; e.g. a new Toa Payoh Central Horizon flat cost up to 550k for a new 5 room flat, using the PSM or PSF to compare with resale flats will show that these flats are not priced at discount at all.
Now lets not be choosy as Singaporeans, HDB is trying their best to give us a home.
So we turn to non-mature estates like Punggol. Yet again, we’re subjected to manipulated pricing.
I refer to the latest BTO project, Punggol Arcadia offered by HDB.
In a similar location just across the street, Coralinus/Treelodge@ponggol BTO project, indicative prices taken from October Half yearly Sale:
In another location with similar proximity to Ponggol MRT, released May2008:
These 3 projects all hold the same proximity to Ponggol MRT station, and are all touted as premium projects. However we should question why the indicative price range has risen from between 7 per cent to 14 per cent? The internal floor area has all but gone up by less than 2 per cent comparatively. I have only drawn the comparison for 4 room flats, but similar directional trend can be noticed in 3 and 5 room offerings as well.
According to news reports, commodities have gone down, demand for construction might slowdown hence might require government reversal in placing some infrastructure projects on hold; so why the increase in prices for such flats?
Minister for National Development, Mr Mah Bow Tan, once said something along these lines. “Instead of building in sync with population growth, which resulted in several excess of flats, we shall now build in sync with demand, hence the BTO model.”
Doesn’t that mean demand will always exceed supply; hence the price floors/equilibrium prices for new flats will be artificial?
Can these directives by HDB be considered duress?
Quoted from their press release:
”The above measures will encourage applicants to consider their options carefully before participating in a HDB sale exercise. They will also help to minimize non-selection of HDB flats by applicants who repeatedly participate in sales exercises and thus divert HDB’s time and resources from those with urgent housing needs.”
This press release was in reference, to the change of rules for balloting of flats. However in the latest October half yearly sale, a 20-year old Bedok flat was also offered in the ballot. Half yearly sales do not allow applicants to choose the indicative area they prefer, nor do they allocate married child priority since applicants are unable to indicate the areas they prefer.
So one does wonder, if the applicant whose family nucleus is in the west, is invited to select a flat and this particular Bedok flat is the last choice available, does one fault him for non-selection?
We are made to pay even for the basic automated electronic process of balloting, yet HDB’s stand seems to infer that if we need a house we should take what they offer. As mentioned, we do not pay a discount, and HDB does make a profit from selling the flats, so why should we be penalized for being selective when we buy our flats?
A home to an ordinary Singaporean like me should be a nest of warmth where I return to my family every night, yet it seems to have been turned into a monopolistic business model, with minimal sense of ownership given.
I do also wonder what HDB’s urgent housing needs refer to, as all I see is an unnecessary spate of DBSS and overpriced projects.
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why resale flat more expensive when it has less years left , eg 20 years less, than new flats?
47) DavidSeeLeongKit on December 3rd, 2008 10.10 pm
no matter what, I want to express my strong Respect for your voicing up in a sensitive manner, which can be subjective.
Took a lot of persistence (and many years) before we found that that the “subsidy” is “market subsidy”. Still wondering what the government’s definition of affordable is. Is affordable healthcare defined similarly as affordable public housing? :)
Under our best health minister ever, my health insurance premium has gone up by a third… Still affordable.
- THIS ISSUE IS MUCH DEEPER AND FURTHER THAN YOU THINK -
I believe some of the best speaker including the author himself if send to the Parliament, PAP sure headache. At the same time, I would like to say, is about time Singaporean show some awareness in this issue.
If not, during your son or daughter generation, they will have to pay until your grandson retire! I mean this is the only way it is heading and final solution for the whole problem if it continue to spread like a disease.
However, have any of you think about this? If say, Opposition won the next election and became the ruling party. They can’t solve this problem too! Imagine those paying through their nose buying HDB during PAP ruling, suddenly realized that the new HDB build by opposition is very much cheaper. I guess they will curse and swear, because nobody is going to buy resale any more. Eventually, their flat with initial value will drop to how much? Can you imagine that scenarios?
- THE REVENGE –
What I am trying to elaborate here is that, many of the current PAP policy have very toxic effect over the long run!
They are so rotten to the core (as I call it), that our whole country will go into a temporary “coma” (in computer, we call it Ctrl Alt Del or reboot) just to revamp it!
All these, we only have Singaporean to blame on it own. Despite so many of you know the con-scheme behind the HDB housing that had been selling to Singaporean from MAH BAO TAN, are you not surprise that every time when these high price tag HDB are launched. You even have Singaporean camping over night at site to be the first one to get their hand on the high priced HDB!
To get back to MAH BAO TAN and PAP is simple. You do not need to wait for Election Day to make our statement. Every time when they launched such project, stay at your parent’s place like me and refuse to buy. Then wait and see how long HDB can last.
Then again, like in the army, Singapore never lack of Sabo KINGs and QUEENs
And seriously, I don’t know how they can afford it since I believe majority of the couple don’t have a house hold income of $8000. Like this article say, even at $8000 per month, you still need to fork out cash on monthly basis!
It is GREED I tell you, all those Singaporean couples think that after 5 years when they sold their landmark unit example like Duxton “Peniscle” Project. They can make a hefty profits out of it. However, forgetting that when suddenly within the five years if there is any economy downturns. They kana Lan! Serve them bloody right.
above comment I deem it as
- BACKFIRE -
Redman:
I tend to argue with you that people purhcasing the Pinnacle will make losses if they sell within the next few years due to the economic recession.
No One knows how much they will make though if the boom time continues which is of course not the case now. However, we are all speculating here as they could make some money when the market turns around in a few years’ time. I foresee that the chances are slim though as they bought it at the peak. You buy high you have to sell it higher in order to make so the chances are slim.
I also agreed with you that if Singaporeans don’t rush up to such highly-priced units, HDB has no choice but to reduce their prices. However, HDB is smart as they don’t build so many flats now and when supply exceeds demand you know how the economic theory works. Many have no choice then but to purchase ressale HDB flats coughing up to $30k to $50k cash over valuation when they buy their HDB 5rm to EC unit. They have a rebate of $30K if they stay within 2km radius of their parents.
Ten years back after I sold my EC, I have no chance to buy any flat back as the market was really bull-ran. Every unit I viewed was gone within the day! So in frustration, I have to rent as I have to return my unit back to the seller.
To my horror, the market dived 6 mths later due to the 1997 financial crisis. Most private units that I viewed fell by almost 100K to 150K in pricing within a one year period. I have also more choices as developers try to dispose off their balance units after TOP. I managed to get a good sized unit almost 30% discounted from the launch price. I guess I benefitted from my slow reaction to the market than anything else.
I am also unsure why Singaporeans are adverse to renting. The best time to rent is when you have sold off your unit during a very boom period as properties’ prices tend to follow the economy closely. Many who got their millions from enbloc sales bought back immediately another million dollar unit and frankly they got nothing back in return. If they have rented, they could have a better pick this time round as market is expected to crash next year due to the economic crisis. This property market bull-run typified that of the 1990s when prices bordered on the ridiculous only to have the 1997 Thai financial crisis bursting the bubble soon after.
Of course, it is difficult to time the market as property involves a very huge investment and if it is for owner occupation, many will have some attachment to the place that they have stayed in.
it is affordable in the eyes of the multi-millionaire ministers we have.
Like many other govt services and policies, hdb is positioned to put a leash on the citizens. Come election time, all leashes are yanked at the same time, that’s why there’s still a majority vote for the PAP each time.
For any real solution to this and other problems like utility, transport, education, etc, change is THE answer. That’s why I advocate voting the opposite camp to break their stranglehold. If PAP continues to remain in power, in the next few decades, Singapore would have been prostituted to the bones. All core assets would have been sold, public goods and services would be non-existent and we will be a colony to all who have bought a slice of Singapore.
I suspect these might be the reasons why they want to sell flats at such high prices:
1. They can avoid paying the interest for the bulk of your CPF savings if you buy a flat at a high price. To them the bigger loan amount you take up the better it is for them. Even better still if you have to stretch your loan period till 30 years. Big burden is taken off their load in the end.
2. Due to their policy of setting low interest rates for the Sing dollar, our currency is in devaluation, especially when the inflation rate is so high like right now. It is difficult to maintain a strong currency when economy is not doing well. Maybe one way to mitigate the loss of purchasing power of the Sing dollar is to price the flats high.
#58 Gilbert Goh
Don’t have to argue, I have the same feeling that Singaporean who went for the “kallang EC”, “AMK EC” and “Penis-cle EC” will eventually suffered! I mean, for first hand they had brought it at almost 500k for a 4 room unit. If the yare going to sell it reaching 600k, who would buy it?! May as well, get a private condo with swimming pool and facility for additional 100k away from the town area!
There is nothing wrong with rental, as a matter of fact, you don’t bloody own the HDB any way. If you look at it carefully, how many people actually stay in their HDB unit until they finished their loan to HDB or bank? One way to look at it, we are only renting the HDB. However, the main contrast is that you can rent it with your CPF when buy a HDB. But if you go into rental like what you are doing now, it will be cold hard cash that eat into your monthly expenses! Moreover, why bother to leave your CPF untouched and let our gahmen invest in some foreign lose cause?!
Now, my early years doing sale tell me one very simple fact. Take for example, selling camera. Alot of package deal selling together with the lenses, tripod and memory card in a bulk price might seem attractive and good deal. However, when you brought the equipment and use it, you find that those extra lens you seldom use it at all and the tripod not strong enough to take the wind. This is because, the sale people are packing all those hardcore products that just don’t leave the shelves and sell it to you! My point is, you can rent or buy HDB, question you want to ask is what is your current income status? Which option subject you to a minimum risk? Since we now know that Crisis come in a very regular basis. It is important to look at the affordbility.
Gilbert:
Referring to your comment that because it is BTO scheme, it will not affect HDB if Singaporean don’t go for it. Not totally truth because all strike and protest has it’s effect.
Imagine within a period of 12 months, nobody go for any BTO when it was launched. There is no construction projects for 12 months. Do you know how many people and company will go into a mini economy crisis? Truth is HDB project fed a lot of construction activity! They cannot afford not to build at all!
Best part about this protest is, I call it non-violences, and neither Government can charge us strike for not willing to use our CPF.
Singaporean want to make the Gahman listen, there are many way. But in the first place, Singaporean must have a united front. Seriously, I don’t really think election is the only way to make PAP feel the pain, slow down and start listening.
If Singaporean don’t buy car for half a year, some one else will push the Government. If Singaporean don’t go to shopping centre for half a year or movie half a year, someone else will push them. You only need 70% of all Singaporean to do that to inflict the maximum impact on the economy.
63/64) RED-man on December 4th, 2008 9.40 am
I agree with u tat there will be a effect but do note wat PM said before.
http://informationreadbyme.blogspot.com/2008/11/now-is-not-time-to-save.html
So if we do this, farther down the road will become our fault which also has happen before.
Remember the Stop at 2 in the past? And the current lack of talents/workers issue?
/// 63) RED-man on December 4th, 2008 9.35 am
Imagine within a period of 12 months, nobody go for any BTO when it was launched. There is no construction projects for 12 months. ///
Red-man, BTO stands for Build To Order. In other words, if there are insufficient orders, those blocks won’t be built, simple as that. So, what you imagined won’t happen. No demand for those BTO flats means no BTO projects in the first place and no such launches to begin with….
Dear T
If you have a gold shop, you make jewellery according to demand. No demand, don’t make. Totally agree.
However, if no demand for 1 year. Every month, you open shop still need to pay rent, worker, electricity etc! How long you can tahan???
HDB not worried if there is BTO or not. At most they’ll just have another ‘retrenchment’ excersise and move the staff over to Surbana.
Unless HDB close shop lah. Then good mah! Housing is truthly liberated from Government control! But I don’t think so lah.
If you look closely at our HDB and CPF. When buying a HDB simply mean Singaporean endorsed in document that his CPF to be transferred to HDB. Thereafter, HDB have your CPF and you get a physical shell (give you something already huh). HDB then loan the CPF to our GIC or worst invest in mini bomb!
Therefore, without HDB, how they going to make you hand over the CPF to them to play with?
YES, you can say that even CPF remain untouch, they still can take directly from your CPF account to invest. However, if they lost the money, they basically have to be 100% accountable for the losses!
Because, your CPF is still virtually yours! They have to send monthly CPF statement to you mah (Oops… did I say monthly? Kanna brain washed).
Red-man, there is always demand for HDB flats from new household formations – newly weds, new citizens and new PRs. Even in the worse of times, the yearly demand will be a few thousand units. Assuming there is little new demand, then HDB can always create “artificial” demand by going for SERS (Selective En-Bloc Redevelopment Scheme – the public sector equivalent of the private sector en-bloc craze). Tear down the older housing estates and builder new ones…..
T:
Yes, you are right on that. How can I missed that? SERS! You are so clever! However, SERS they bor make so much money lah.
T:
PR cannot buy new flat. Sorry
i visited the hdb website and the 3Q 2008 median resale price of bukit merah is $438k, central is $386k and queenstown is $481k. now, how would these compare to the discounted market price of pinnacle 4rm flats at $457k to $555k?
Two of the letters compare the selling prices of the Pinnacle@Duxton flats against its earlier launch prices and asked about the cost of the flats. Such comparisons are not meaningful as HDB takes a market-based approach in pricing its flats. The new flats are sold according to what they would fetch on the open market, but with a generous discount which is the subsidy that buyers enjoy. When the market goes up, HDB prices also move up. But when the market goes down, new flat prices are reduced. In the late 1990s after the Asian Financial Crisis, the property market suffered a severe downturn. HDB followed the market and moved prices downwards. In Sengkang, for example, the average prices of some five-room and executive flats were up to 30 per cent lower in 2005 than when they were first offered for sale in 1997 to 1998.
We thank the writers for their feedback.
Ignatius Lourdesamy
Acting Deputy Director (Marketing & Projects)
for Director (Estate Administration & Property)
Housing & Development Board
according to the above letter, comparing against earlier launch prices is not meaningful. so comparing latest market price is meaningful. can hdb show the public how they derived at the pricing for pinnacles and how much is the generous discount given in these cases?
74) Redbean
Why not ask them how come they want to peg prices to market rate as opposed to construction costs?! I don’t buy the argument how our flats could be ‘heavily’ subsidized if condo units only cost marginally more. Unless of course HDB had been ko-toked by the same construction company over the years. The maths just don’t tally….
Mission statement of HDB:
We provide affordable homes of quality and value.
We create vibrant and sustainable towns.
We promote the building of active and cohesive communities.
We inspire and enable all staff to give of their best.
I think they should just strike off the first line in their mission statement.
This is just pure profiteering from the citizens, and nothing else because they know that they can monopolize the market and inflate the prices so that they can just empty your entire cpf saving and then you have to pay cash to them, simple as that. They just want alot of $$$ out of you peoples’ pockets.
Red Bean:
Thanks for your letter shown on post #74.
It clearly shows that when you buy new HDB flats during the boom period which was during the past two years, you may have buy them at the high end. This is not unlike of purchasing flats from the resale market which follows the economic environment. This trend also follows that of private units.
Of course, HDB has factored in about 20% off the prevailing sales prices of resale units but we have seen that prices of flats can go down more than 20% in a down period. Thus, HDb I think has tricked us all along by saying that they have subsidised units. They do if the prices stay flat ie. the prices of flats do not fluatuate but we all know that resale units act like private ones and they do swing wildly at times.
For example, a HDB resale executive unit in the 1995/6 was quoted at $600K average but the same unit dropped to as low as $450,000 during the down period immediately after 1997 Thain financial crisis period to 2006. Prices only went up during the economic boom of 2006-2007. Prices have since dropped off slightly due to the current recession. It is expected to drop further next year.
As valuation follows that of the economy, those who buy at the high end last year or earlier may be screwed even with the subsidy given by HDB. They may have to stay in for a long time or wait for the boom period to return soon.
hi guys,
there is a saying, ‘with friends like these, you don’t need enemies.’
how to translate this quote in the context of govt and people?
and they talked about transparency whoa?
A 4-room 100m2 private condo in China Guangzhou cost only about S$100k. With S$300k (the price of a hdb 3-4 room), somebody can buy a private condo, need not work for 20 years while enjoying a comfortable lifestyle, and for Chinese blend in comfortably in China. No wonder our 20-30 years old Singaporean are all leaving Singapore. And our politicians still do not understand why our younger Singaporean are leaving!
Mopolistic HDB and monopolistic PAP.
There is a need for anti-trust action against the govt!
aiyoyo
no wonder PRC so $$$,
their house not so x,
then got cash $$$ on hand la…
but look at here, very tough here leh..
aiyoyo
I believe problems like this started because everything is privatise and they started a business method to earn more and more till we become broke and surrender our property to them and that is why it is call leasing not ownership of the HDB flat. Singaporean got to understand that when a bill is being enacted into parliament as a citizen everyone has the right to question the bill before it becomes effective into law. It’s not wrong to write your intentions and request for explanation about the bill. You are doing a favour to you, your family and friends by questioning the bill that has to be safe before it pass by the parliament .
In the 1970s, a 4 room HDB flat cost about 4 years of an average person’s income. It was affordable public housing.
Today, a 4 room HDB flat in Punggol will cost about 4 years of a combined family income (with both spouses working). Two working persons does not mean that they have double the income. There are expenses to be spent in commuting to work, eating outside, clothes, etc. There is also the need to pay for a maid to work in the home and look after the children.
A HDB flat, at today’s prices, is a big burden to the family. It is no longer affordable. This is one factor that accounts for the reluctance of many family to have children. They cannot afford it.
The monthly installment for a HDB flat is barefly affordable, if both spouses have full time work. If any spouse is retrenched, it will be a burden. There are many cases of installments in arrear.
At present, the interest rate on HDB loan is 2.6%. If the interest rate moves up to 5% due to a rise in interest rate in the future, the monthly installment will increase by 25%. This can be a source of future problem.
What can ordinary people do? Do not over-commit to buy an expensive HDB flat. It can be a burden to your family finances.
If you are counting on the combined family income of both spouses, choose a flat that cost three years (not four years) of the combined income. Keep some savings for the future.
If many people are more prudent in their spending, there will be less demand for HDB flats and the prices will not keep on escalating.
Dear fellow singaporeans,
i strongly believe that the government is trying their best to do what’s possible in their most favourable outcomes, perhaps government first, then us. The housing pricing is indeed hilariously high as all of us try to debate this.
Even if the most eloquent speaker from the government would argue otherwise that since we have cheaper alternatives to choose from, then it is really not their problem. It has become a major hotspot for discussion and in no means, working towards our way because all DBSS is commerciallised and the plot of land sold is for such a high premium and i strongly believe that if government wishes to do more for us, the first time house buyer deserves a place in a matured estate, they should either pass off some rebates in terms of lower interest or additional housing grant.
Afterall, the poor and the middle income are very closely knitted in terms of pay and mostly squeezed by the parties involved.
So to the government, we need cheaper housing and pls dun push us to faraway suburbs because we cannot afford.
The Singapore HDB and private properties are going to enter into a Sub prime crunch.
In the past, economy was growing in the whole region From Singapore to Taiwan, US plants were shifting out of US to avoid the high local salaries on low level workers. They moved the factories out of US into Mexico, Asia etc which house their low cost factories. US was the economic driving force for Singapore.
With the wealth of manufacturing in the 70s, 80s and 90s, the decline start to show in since late 90s. Singapore changed from the back bone manufacturing into financial services. Despite being the hub of many high tech manufacturing sectors for US, Singapore never retained any people nor technical know how. When US investors pulled out, the Singapore government embraced financial services and took after the model of London.
Already, UK has showed decades of decline by loosing technology know how and manufacturing, falling way behind US, China. However, Singapore government did not learn from the mistakes of UK but instead followed on.
Now, Singapore is hit by a global down turn in which demands are falling more than 50-60%! This is very bad news because the manufacturing sectors are now wiped out and will not recover again. Many US executives have now decided to move to China for every consumer electronics, heavy industry and medical supplies. Singapore technology was a Hawker Center style management. I will make what sells well. The industry and even university have sub standard technical people. How to compete even with the surrounding countries.
Never mind industry, lets move to financial services. Singapore took on financial investments heavily and true enough, made over S$150 Billion in recent years. That was a big achievement. But bear in mind, how much was bubbles or inflated values on paper?
Today, April 09, we can see it hitting Singapore hard now and will be worse. No more jobs, no more demands, no more industry. People who came in as foreign now are moving elsewhere very rapidly.
I predict by end of Q3, private property will be half of the value, as more and more default payments and enter bankruptcy.
Even those who were holding prime properties will be hard hit because income has fallen sharply, they cannot maintain the same payment. So, prime will become subprime property. This is a dangerous vicious cycle.
The worse thing is many developers pushed out properties recently, dumping so much units and get the banks into heavy commitments. The banks should have halted all these loans as they are already badly hit by the global exchange and lost billions in loans. Were are the cash coming from?
I also predict Singapore will enter into the subprime crisis mirroring the US American downfall. There will be many out of job and not able to service their loans. We already know it is all too common for salary cuts and the cost of living in Singapore continues to rise, never plunge. Inflation figure is way higher than official.
Once again, the government fail to look into the examples of US decline and continue to cash in on property sale. I feel very sorry for people who committed to properties in the past two years. Especially those who are buying property in Q1 09 needs really think of a way out.
The world’s worse is yet to come, and committing to property at its artificial peak only speaks of the mentality of many Singapore’s folks. If you want to look at the figures, check the US sites and see the global trend. Singapore has not seen the bottom yet.
I felt really depressing, actually hope to write to Mr Mah. I have went for several house viewing on resale flats recently and its still at a crazy pricing? I was at farrar park, mc nair and some hdb flats and i wondered why would the flats nowadays be so small 95sqm for 4 room, 450k as compare to the 90s, EA flat for about 240-300k which is at a more resonable pricing and better location? I actually see alot of Singaporean (in my generation) struggling like me with this and i really hope that our government would step in to help. I really don’t understand if flats were to build, why would they be so tiny and that it actually pressured people to buy cos there are not much of an option and price is 450k, and considered cheap in the market? Everything makes no sense to me now staying in Singapore. I actually preferred how the country was run earlier on. Even folks working in the government sector has some attitude, we always need to comply. No questions asked. And, that now that i am retrenched, everything seems to get worst and i hope the government would be able to understand how a commoner like us would feel if they were in our situation. Pathetic and helpless. So what the reason to stay in Singapore now?? What are the benefits to us? There will be more ended up like old folks that stay under the hdb flats or collecting cardboards in future?
In some country, typically the amount of loan or mortgage is pegged at 3.5 time combined house hold ( both spouse)or 3 x single income over 25 years period. It seemed to work well over the years. The loan or mortgage is typically provided by a bank or Building Society with no gahment involvement. Some form of tax relieve may be provided. The housing market is totally in private hand. In Sinkapore due to its small size, land is extremely expensive and precious so the gahment took charge which one would have hope offer the state the opportunity to regulate and maintain affortable housing for all its citizen rather then using its monopoly position to make financial gain. House prices were rising faster then income as many rich FT/FW and foreign students parent start to buy into the limited housing stock. Either the state bar non Sinkaporean from buying or build more to meet the increased demand. To benefit from it and not doing anything to correct a situation they had created in the place is monopply, no other word for it.
Debt is the best form of slavery. It is naked to the eyes.