Leong Sze Hian
12% credit wage reimbursement
Since employers can already cut wages, cut the work week and ask workers to take “no pay” leave, to what extent will the 12% job credit wage reimbursement up to the first $2,500 of wages for workers who contribute to CPF, help to reduce job losses?
For example, a 20% pay cut, I work day less a week, and some “no pay” leave, may effectively already cut wages by more than 50%.
So, how much more impact will the 12% have?
For employers who, in any case do not intend to retrench, the 12% is like a bonus – so, no impact on the retrenchment decision. For those in financial difficulties, retrenching means saving 100% versus just saving 12% by keeping the worker.
On the Channel NewsAsia Budget interview on 22 January, Mdm Halimah Yacob asked why the 12% reimbursement was quarterly and not monthly? The reply was that it would be an incentive for employers to keep the worker for at least 3 months.
If the employer has cash-flow problems, actually reimbursing him monthly may help to save workers, as some may have no choice but to retrench immediately, because they can’t wait 3 months.
Passing the rebates
Landlords have been asked to pass on the property tax rebates to their tenants. Since some landlords may be reeling from the downturn, to what extent will savings be passed on to tenants?
Taxi operators have also been asked to pass on the road tax rebates to taxi drivers.
Similarly, to what extent will this be done?
Banks
Since the announcement of the SME loans package in November, all media reports have said that it has generally been not very successful.
It thus remains to be seen, how successful the new Special Risk-Sharing Initiative will be? Conceptually, the problem may be that banks may still primarily assess loans based on the merits of the borrower. Even with the Government sharing 75% or 80% of the loss, a poor lending decision still means a loss to the bank.
As to calls for the Government to lend directly, the reason given was that the Government did not have the expertise.
Can’t the Government hire the expertise required?
HDB flats
Increasing the Additional Housing Grant by $10,000 to $40,000, and the income ceiling to $5,000, for first-timers to purchase HDB flats, may result in even more people buying flats that they may have difficulty paying – with forecasts of job losses of as much as 300,000.
Perhaps a better measure may be to reduce the price of HDB flats which have gone up a great deal over the last few years, under the HDB’s market subsidy pricing policy.
Isn’t now a good time for this policy to be reviewed?
15% rental rebate
HDB, JTC, SLA and NEA will give a 15% rental rebate to tenants. Over the last year or two, I believe that rents generally went up much more than 15%. Government agency landlords should be asked to immediately review and try to reduce rentals in the light of the rapidly declining economic situation.
Otherwise, most may just give the 15% rental rebate.
Financial assistance for the poor
According to the Department of Statistics’ Key Household Income Trends 2008 report, the average per capita household income of the bottom decile of employed households was only $340.
If we use the generally accepted cut-off poverty line of $450 per capita monthly (which I understand is generally used by Community Development Councils (CDCs) and NTUC for giving financial assistance), then I estimate that about 100,000 household may need financial assistance.
If we add “unemployed households” and “retiree households” that may be finding it hard to make ends meet, how many households in total need financial assistance?
MP Dr Lily Neo asked this question in Parliament, and suggested the figure of 100,000.
If despite the doubling of the GST credits and S & CC rebate for those households that still fall below the $450 poverty line and have run out of resources, I would like to suggest that they could perhaps be given the assurance that they would get financial assistance which will bring them up to the $450 benchmark.
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A very good read
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123264905073306835.html
Singaporean workers and businesses invest a total of 34.5% of wages into the state pension fund, but receive less than a 2% return from the government. That’s a measly payout compared to what private funds return over long investment periods.
the devil lies in the details.
But, don’t put too much hope in budgets,since when have you seen budgets across the world perform miracles?
As i have said in the past, let me repeat, HDB prices will surely come down,no need for any govt intervention, it is a case of when only. Private homes’ prices are tumbling, HDB prices will also follow suit but with a lag, as usual.
Where to find so many PRs, new households to buy flats when economy is in recession and population growth is slowing? Foreigners will also start abandoning the flats if they lost their jobs,just look at the latest Credit suisse report on 300000 leaving. What will the actual figures will be.Who knows?
Its better not to ask the govt to do more,don’t forget “the sheep’s fur comes from the sheep” unless you are willing to pay more taxes
Credit wage reimbursement ? What is there to stop them from taking back – reduce your CPF interest rates, up the minimum sum,….
Budget is a big bang, lots of noise.
Comments on Bank & Loans Initiatives:-
1) The 80/20 (or disproportionate) sharing scheme might increase irresponsible lending as the risk/reward payoff for the banks are higher.
2) Nothing is mentioned of the reward for the govt (using taxpayers’ money). Is the interest payment received by the loans be split equally?
3) What about the bad loans? Is it a case of socialising the loss and privatising the profits? Taxpayer will pay the loss but banks will pocket the profit.
Leong, I admire your older articles for the research done but it gets hard to read sometimes
This is much easier to absorb. Thank you for it.
Rental Rebate is a joke ! Our company signed up with the landlord based on 2007′s rental for 3 years. With the rebate, the building owner benefits and still charges the same rate as specified in the contract ! Do you think we can negotiate more discount from them ?
The govt is in effect controlling the prices of HDB flats, not the market rate. Valuers will continue to give high valuations to resale flats and one time purchase is pegged to resale flat, which has no correlation to actual costs.
Govt can do a lot to reduce the prce of public housing, and allow more citizens more money for their retirement in their CPF accounts. I hope the govt has the guts to do the right thing.
personally, I feel the 12% thingy is a okay measure.
since it only applies to PR/citizens, if a firm die die have to retrench to save cost, they are more likely to retrench foreigners.
Having said that, we do seem to have an awful lot of PRs….
second thing is that a firm cannot retrench everyone. then there will be zero productivity. hence while it doesn’t affect/help firms that really need to downsize, it does help those who need to just need to tide over this period.
With manpower always a significant cost (probably behind rentals), giving the incentive to retrench FW first, and saving cost on the remaining PR/citizens should, in theory, help firms.
aiyoyo
hdb? it seems now it behave like condo! price super high!
how to afford? for commoners.
if still so high not sure next generation how to afford hdb lousing?
aiyoyo
End of the day, wages are just going to be further depressed as business owners seize the chance to grab more money. Again this adds to the widening wealth gap. Also FWs will keep remitting more money back to their homes.
A single “Skilled FW” with a diploma will probably cost around $950 compared to a o level holder local who will cost approximately $996(after job credit deduction). The local is most likely needed to support his family ‘s expenses while the “Skilled FW” is usually single. How can low income singaporeans survive?
If I’m an employer I’ll further depress the wages of fresh graduates and help convert as many FWs/FTs into PRs so that I can reap rewards of the job credit. Where does the local stand again? Leave social responsibility to business men? You can be sure to screw the population again.
Don’t talk about the huge subsidies on SPUR when people can’t even get jobs in the near future. They have problems putting food on the table and you want them to fork out 600 bucks for study? What about those who have kids in school and 1 spouse who has already been retrenched? Does the budget help to pay school fees, flat installments and medical costs?
We are just going to see more locals with experience and some even with postgrad qualifications being out of a job while FTs/FW get express route conversions to PR and employers grinning from ear to ear. Does ICA and MOM do in depth checks on these FTs? There are lots of con men who are able to exploit our system easily, especially management positions. Does the govt send in agents of its own to test the FT system like how companies employ hackers to test their internet security? If not how do we know for sure we are not letting in thrash who fake it for a while and jump ship all over SG, rake in loads and restart the cycle in US or australia?These days certs can be forged off the internet and administrators at academic institutions can be bribed. We need robust filter systems!
How is the lame HDB subsidy going to help current owners struggling with the payments? Slashing the obscene profit margins by at least 70% will help! Lowering the super inflated resale HDB values will help! Public housing should be readily affordable since its not for perpetuity. Free education will help as well! In a time when our own are in trouble, how can huge sums be given away to foreigners in terms of scholarships.
Truly disappointing.
“The govt is in effect controlling the prices of HDB flats, not the market rate. Valuers will continue to give high valuations to resale flats and one time purchase is pegged to resale flat, which has no correlation to actual costs.”
the government is very innovative actually. they ARE the ones who set the market rates for flats and housing, but they blame the market for the prices they set. wow. a price-setter blaming market for pricing. how smart?
often I hear “let market forces decide on hdb property price” when in the good and booming yrs. but now that we are experiencing a severe recession, I wonder how can private property price keeps on dropping that truely reflect market conditions whereas hdb seem to be holding and not falling in tandum with that of Private property?…………….but all hell will break lose when more jobs are lost and this will surely drive down those inflated hdb prices…………keep watching!!!
and let’s be pragmatic and not deny that in a recession, everything will be on lelong mode!!!
Is it true that after the Budget was announced, the STI did not pick up but went down? is it true , huh? huh ???
you know what I suspect… the loan facility from the budget is not to help the sme, but the local banks which have lent a lot of monies for the IR construction. The govt is hiding behind the banks and probably directing the monies to the Sands for the construction.
Also, the “so called drawing from reserve” could be an accounting ploy to recognise the losses due to citibank, barcap investment losses. there seemingly was funds to go into those “help funds” but actually no monies go there. No material impact on us because most of the time, these funds don’t give out monies. Most importantly, the govt can be seen to be doing so, and actually helping itself. Don’t believe? go add up the monies seemly to be put into these funds and compare it with the loses made in citigroup, barcap.
The rent rebate is to help itself too because rental rebates help to support the yield of properties and govt is the largest owner of land in s’pore.
very sly.
14) mon on January 23rd, 2009 11.19 pm
I think you may be right. Tell me how to know whether they actually pay out all these $billions as claimed to be? since whatever they do there is totally no transparency and knowing that no one, strictly no one can ever find out the truth of what they are actually doing behind. Figures, figures you know, can be manipulated in many ways and they do their own auditing, so you know what I mean.
15)to tiredsingaporean, I’m tired of all this talk about the Budget. True, numbers can be manipulated,…like eg take one zero out or add three zeros behind a figure. Anyway, these numbers are huge, probably as a means to lure people to vote for PAP. If you happen to look into the papers, you will see people praising it, and if these people are so positive about it, why shouldn’t all Singaporeans? “PAP has done another great job again, and it will get my vote in the next Trap Election, sorry I mean to say Snap Election” they say.
Haha.. hope there will not be idiots who cannot differentiate between the government actually doing its job and PAP exceeding expectations.
The Singapore Government does not want to engage in direct lending because it does not have the expertise, yet the bank stimulation plan includes a government-backed trade finance insurance scheme to help exporters. So I suppose there are Insurance professionals working within the civil service?
16) those once loyal on January 23rd, 2009 11.42 pm
Anyway, these numbers are huge, probably as a means to lure people to vote for PAP. If you happen to look into the papers, you will see people praising it, and if these people are so positive about it, why shouldn’t all Singaporeans? “PAP has done another great job again.
Whatever election whether snap or trap, I will only pray hard that these MIW be wiped out from parliament before Singapore can finally come out totally clean again. Or else, the diseased policy will continue to drain off the entire nation and the people will continue to suffer to no end.
So with this Budget, we are all supposed to be very thankful to the PAP and happy and contented? TOC thought that the govt may hold a GE soon in March. So if it is true, this Budget is just a great sweetener to help the bitter medicine go down, and vote them in for another term to put back the screws on us? So all the bad things that have happened can be washed away, forgotten, or sugar-coated? Don’t forget- these are your own money, not the PAP’s. And you are entitled to it! So no need to feel grateful or happy. Ask why they didnt do it earlier or pre-empt the problems. Do you sense that they have accepted that they were wrong? Do they feel at all guilty for screwing up? Not just the economy, but Internal Security, Integrity of the Courts, Justice, etc?
“I think you may be right. Tell me how to know whether they actually pay out all these $billions as claimed to be? since whatever they do there is totally no transparency and knowing that no one,”
Indeed recently, Temasek Holding even claim that their investment is just paper loss after all and will recover during good time. So are those majority of budget just paper talk and paper money, one hootwink you to feel so good and think it is generous ? Remember the gov here is about nation-building. Lies, deception and deceit are legal as long as it fulfil its objective. The end justifies the means.
Until we have transparency and accountability, just don’t put blind trust into the system. Remember we have a ponzi system in place here.
2) cy on January 23rd, 2009 4.07 pm the devil lies in the details.
As i have said in the past, let me repeat, HDB prices will surely come down,no need for any govt intervention, it is a case of when only
Agree 101% with you! It will crash like the COE, LTA fine-tune until no way out, with all the bright scholars there LTA screw themselves.
These smartass will never understand how the real economy works.
Artificial pricing fixing like holding HDB Prices Higher will never succeed with this global depression (yes it’s going to be worse than a deep recession)
Singapore is a “rich” country, how come i still see poor and homeless uncles and aunties? I dont see any response frm the government too?
22) mad93 on January 24th, 2009 9.25 am Singapore is a “rich” country, how come i still see poor and homeless uncles and aunties? I dont see any response frm the government too?
This is so!!! because homeless shelter won’t allow a person to stay more than 3 month and there a waiting list plus a very very long list of questions and nol of countless interviews and checking before you can get a place for ONLY 3 months then you must fing other means and garment HDB for needy same long long procedures and waiting list is long…..
Cut the ministers pay half for 2 years and transfer this to GST cut for the people!
I totally agree to those who said that the monopolistic price controls by the Singapore government will collapse during this depressionary years! HDB flat prices, JTC factory leases, transportation fares, telco and other communication costs, etc which the government manipulates the “prices” will drop like dominoes causing more hardship to people who has interests in them. Particularly hard hit will be those who get caught in paying artificially inflated high valuation HDB prices whether purchased directly or through the open market. Sorry for the Ginny come lately “foreign talents” and PRs who thought they have a wonderful long term investment in this sunny island paying top prices over the last three years for a roof over their head. Wait till they see the property prices dropped like a bombshell in the biggest market correction in history. Don’t believe the word “land scarce”. Oil prices went up to US$160 just six months ago but now has crashed to $40. So
what scarcity? All in the mind and speculation and propaganda and greed! This is what it is all about.
simple maths will tell you that the claim is grossly overstated, ask yourself whether an average joe will get at s$5k from this budget (ie the s$20.5bil budget divided by 4 mil population)?
how can you trust their numbers?
its simply a bull of craps!!
same goes on how they (ntuc / temasek related companies etc) price their daily goods…..all are overstated….
No benefits for the unemployed…
#24 RED-man:
Cut the ministers pay half for 2 years and transfer this to GST cut for the people!
Economically, this may not be very cost effective.
From the same source (WSJ) which TOC used:
“The package comprises S$5.8 billion to spur bank lending, S$5.1 billion to help save jobs, S$2.6 billion in tax measures and grants to help businesses, S$4.4 billion in infrastructure spending, and S$2.6 billion to help households.” [1]
Say, pessimistically, we only consider $2.6 billion household aid as the form of direct subsidy. Actually, most of the tax rebates goes to the lower income group. For example, the income tax rebate is capped at $2000, making it less significant for people in the higher tax bracket.
The manpower expenditure for political and parliamentary appointments is only $80 million ([2] page 9) in FY 2008. In other words, we need to fire them for at least 20 years to have 1 year of tax rebate. Individually, they may earn quite a lot, but collectively, not much so, because there are not many of them.
Personally, I prefer no tax rebate at all, and instead use the money to aid household who don’t even qualify to pay taxes.
[1] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123265678165707363.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
[2] http://www.singaporebudget.gov.sg/revenue_expenditure/attachment/Expenditure_Estimates.pdf
So many of my friends degree holders unemployed sittings at home, got bills to pay and kids to feeds! Even they go for interviews now, potential employers also pressed them like hell cause it a employer market!
Why the media never interview them how they feel about this budget!
The budget is too pro business until at least 80% is used to primp up the business sectors.
One wonders what will happen next if the unemployment figure keeps jumping – the govt to put more money into the hands of the employers?
My landlord told me that he is a businessman through and through as he feels that being an employee is such a loser here (he is an archiect with his own firm).
Many regulations and govt policies suit the employers more than the employees.
The budget is a clearcut illustraion of this fact.
In Australia, during the budget in December, the govt places money into the hands of the people but more for the poor and out. For example, for a family that has an income of below $5000, the govt gives money to the family bases on the number of children they have. If you have 3 kids, they will give you a thousand dollars each for each kid.
For pensioners, each pensioner will receive $1000 and a couple around $1600,
Here, the only thing we receive directly is the GST extra credit of an average of around $400 per person. The rich and poor will receive them.
My only worry is that with such generous handout, the employers will still keep retrenching which is not surprising. WHat next?
HDB & Condo Pricing.
When govt leased out lands for private developers to build condos, the prices are hefty high. Private developers have no choice but pass the high cost of each condo unit to the home buyers.
Next, Minister for National Development will then increase the price of HDB to match the condo. Lee & Lee Law firm handle the Duty Stamps for HDB. Gd $$$$.
Now almost every HDB unit regardless number of rooms, cost more than 6-figure, not including renovation & other miscellaneous costs. HDB pricing is HIGH but the HDB floor area is like a chalet. How to afford??…….like Hong Kong housings so small.
In Aussie, NZ or some countries, 6-figures prices housing comes with a garden or farm.
29) Gilbert Goh on January 24th, 2009 8.11 pm
The budget is too pro business until at least 80% is used to primp up the business sectors.
One wonders what will happen next if the unemployment figure keeps jumping – the govt to put more money into the hands of the employers?
Yes, it is a pro-business budget as stated up front.
My take is that the budget tries to minimize the unemployment impact that is expected to climb in first half of the year. This budget is for the first half of the year only.
There is too much uncertainty at this time for them to spell out exactly what to do in th second half of the year. They are not that blind or stupid. There is Plan B, Plan C ready to kick in at the second half of the year to pump in the $60B surplus.
People say they are not doing enough. I think they just not saying what they are going to do next, holding back those Plan B and Plan C for good reasons.
Actually from the way I see it, the gahmen is desperately trying to keep people from getting out of jobs. Do you know why ? Because many of these people’s CPF is tied to the mortage loans of HDB and if they are unemployed, how the hell can HDB get them to pay up ? HDB might run into problems….plus more people will queue up at the CDC for financial aids. They might run out of funds to help more people this time + you get more angry people who might torch anyone or any MPs…It’s all inter-related.
So they better act fast before things starts to get worse and I think they are already doing what they should do. The rest is up to us for gahmen will never be your father; as they can only take care of you up to certain limit. So we cannot depend on them too much.
#30 Gilbert Goh,
I share the same concerns you raised.
On paper the budget appears to encourage employers not to retrench.
The real question is, Even If they decide to retrench later on after taking the benefits, WHAT CAN BE DONE?
When companies here retrench at 1st Resort, what happens to them ?
Can companies still Retrench at 1st Resort?
If companies say its their last resort, what can you say? they lying?
I am so impressed.
did you all add up all the monies that the govt is literally giving out not what it is not taking?
You will be surprised it is actually very small.
Why do they need to withdraw the reserve for?
For example, imagine there is1 million sing/pr workers in Singapore.
Maximum number of credits one gets in a year is 300×12 = 3600
Total cost of the credit is about 3.6 billion.
Looks big but this is a sum that it takes less. in a way a cut of cpf contribution to the employer…
#30 Gilbert Goh
The budget is too pro business until at least 80% is used to primp up the business sectors….Many regulations and govt policies suit the employers more than the employees.
#34 Nathan Keyes of the No Prob
If companies say its their last resort, what can you say? they lying?
Keeping businesses, especially export-related businesses, alive is probably our best bet to save jobs since exports account for about 200% of our GDP [1]. Domestic consumption only accounts for 40% of the GDP [2].
Ideally, we want to make sure that business do not misuse the financial aids, so the the goal of keeping jobs is met. But there is no way to guarantee that. Yotalitarian communism just doesn’t work. No even in China.
What we can best do is to try putting mechanisms in place to minimise misuse of aids and to keep the economy up so that companies need to employ, rather to hand out cash to household “to keep jobs” (which then becomes stimulating consumption)
Of course, we need help people tide over the difficult period. Personally, I prefer not give rebates for personal income tax, and use the money to help household who don’t even qualify to pay income tax. (see my comments at #28)
[1] http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2798.htm (GDP: $168 bil, exports:$313 bill, import: $275 bil)
[2] http://theonlinecitizen.com/?p=5347
What is a credit wage adjustment? It is really a wage subsidy. The term “credit” is not appropriate. Credit implies that the receiver has to pay back the money.
We are so hypocritical that we do not call a spade a spade.
The “job credit” scheme helps to reduce the cost for employers, but may not help much in saving jobs.
If an employer faces a drop of 20% in demand, the employer is likely to reduce the workforce by 20%. Every retrenched worker saves the employer 100% in the payroll (less any retrenchment benefit that has to be paid). The job credit scheme only helps to reduce the cost by 9%.
The danger of this scheme is that the employer will continue to retrench workers and to benefit from the 9% saving in cost. It does not help to save jobs.
The subsidy to the employer for each worker is now capped at $300 per month. To achieve greater impact to preserve jobs, I suggest that the subsidy be revised to 50% on the first $600 of wages of each worker.
This will encourage employers to keep many people on the payroll. They may even ask the employers to work a short week at a proportionate pay. For example, if a worker earns $1,000 a month and agrees to work 3 days a week at $600, the employer will enjoy the full subsidy of $300. I hope that the employer may agree to give a part or all of the subsidy to the worker.
This is more likely to encourage employers to keep more workers on the payroll, rather than to retrench the workers in line with reduced demand.
The revised scheme will also encourage employers to create casual, part time work on an hourly rate of $6 to $8 per hour. It is desirable to recruit workers who live near the place of work, to reduce commuting time and cost.
A casual worker who works 4 hours a day or 100 hours a month can earn $600 to $800. The cost to the employer will be reduced by $300. This is low cost to the employer.
A large number of older workers, who have been unemployed for several years, can find useful job under this scheme. The work in the neighbourhood can be to improve customer service in shops, to keep the neighbourhood clean and to provide help to the elderly and children. It will improve the quality of life in the neighbourhood and give meaningful work to people who are otherwise unemployed.
As usual – what to expect from the government? yet another half-hearted approach to “help” singaporeans.
job credit scheme is a joke – can the government please make it monthly and increase this to 50% and pay capping increase to $4000?
if really want to “save” jobs, please do it effectively – don’t wayang here and there – people’s family and livelihood at stake here!
“Keeping businesses, especially export-related businesses, alive is probably our best bet” that’s a great idea to keep job, but right now, with the current economy of our target export market, even if we keep the business alive, there is still a lack of demand and our export will be stagnant. and this event isn’t something that will fade away soon, so the demand for our export won’t be back anytime soon. and without demand for their export, the business will definitely cut as much as possible, even with these aid.
export do contribute a huge amount of our GDP, I know that, however we can’t depend too much on it. if there is a next time, we will suffer the same fate again. Yes, CJC has said it, the condition of SG makes it hard to be less dependent on export, but we can try to minimize that dependent and shift it until it reach another equilibrium state that best promote growth and is resilient. if not, it will be like a virus, which as you know has no cure, and it will slowly mutate and come back at you.
and for the virus part, only vaccines not cure are available. Prof Larry D. Farrell says: “I have a treatment that will immediately stop the
replication of any virus causing the common cold. Unfortunately, hydrogen
cyanide also stops the functioning of every other cell in the patient’s body.
Not a very good therapeutic outcome.”
The best test of how effective the budget is is whether the private sector will heed the government ‘s call not to sack the workers. Apparently, they are bo-chap and sacked more than 50,000 workers worldwide on the first day of the Year of the Ox, so much for tripartisism.
The problem is that the government is doing too little too late and it is questionable whether they are doing the right thing at all. After all, instead of rebuking their permanent secretary for spending millions in a French cooking class, they should do something concrete by donating their bonuses (however little to them) to help the poor, if they are truly serious about what they say, which often they are not.
Jobless Singaporeans and those in danger of losing their jobs have no one to blame, except themselves for being so gullible to trust the govt for so long for believing that there will be more good years.
The govt should give more to singapore citizens, less or even none at all to the PRs. If PRs are jobless, they can just go back to their hometown and come back again when the economy are better. If singaporeans are jobless, we would still be in singapore. What can we do? Apply for more assistance ?? In fact, some PRs are only keen to earn our singapore salary and bring back to spend in their hometown. Perhaps, the govt should try not to grant PR status to foreigners so easily, especially for the Malaysians. We have too many Malaysians who are granted PR status in singapore, earn our singapore salary, then go back to Malaysia to buy a big bungalow, car etc.
The cracks are evidently showing on the rich and prosperous facade that the government has been putting as a show to the world….Some families i noe are already hovering around the poverty line before the crisis…now its worse….Now is the best time to show all those so called unemployed foreign talents where they came from since they are onli gotta suck on our tax. Our tax are onli for needy singaporeans.