Monday, February 23, 2009 18:25

Reserves – more or less?

In Main Stories, Top Story, Uncle Leong, Uniquely Spore • 2,571 views • 49 Comments

Notice: The organisers of the “Our Thoughts are Free” book launch has kindly requested that the announcement be removed from TOC. More details will be given at a later date.

Leong Sze Hian

Why can’t GIC’s losses be revealed like Temasek’s?

I refer to the editorial, “President’s account of reserves use welcome” (ST, Feb 20).

It states that “Economic conditions all over are so bad. People will relate drawdowns to the humongous paper loss Temasek Holdings and the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation are staring at in their investments.”

I also refer to the article, “Temasek portfolio down 31%” (ST, Feb 11).

If the three power companies were not sold by Temasek to foreign companies, would the loss have been higher?

In the previous year (2007), an injection of $10 billion was made into Temasek. Were any injections made between March and November last year?

Since the loss of Temasek can be disclosed, what was the amount lost by the Government Investment Corporation (GIC) for the same eight month period?

According to the article, “Temasek takes severe hit” (The Nation newspaper, Thailand, Feb 9), “GIC started the crisis with roughly S$550 billion in reserves …. estimate is that it has lost about S$190 to S$200 billion …. These are all worst-case estimates.”

As to the statement, “GIC’s 20-year average return was 5.8 per cent as at March last year. While, this figure will fall for March this year, it will not be sharply down”, since it is now only February 10, how could anyone foretell the future and know that it ‘will not be sharply down’ by the end of next month?

With regards to the remarks that “Temasek’s 31 per cent drop in portfolio value was less than the 44 per cent plunge in the MSCI Singapore Index and the 45 per cent delcine in the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index in the same period”, it may not be very appropriate to benchmark a globally diversified sovereign wealth fund portfolio against a 100 per cent equities portfolio in just a single country or region.

According to a Wall Street Journal article, sources had leaked that GIC lost $50 billion. I do hope that this estimate is more accurate. If indeed this is true, I see no reason why GIC’s losses cannot be disclosed, as it may indicate that the loss was only about less than 10 per cent, which is a very credible performance in this financial crisis.

Perhaps the last thing we may need in a recession is more uncertainty and anxiety about how much we have lost, and how much we have left.

The article, “Economic focus: Full disclosure – The case for transparency in financial markets is not clear-cut” (The Economist, Feb 21)  is enlightening. It says that, “Its promises are alluring, yet elusive; everyone, from politician to pundit, calls for more. In its recent report on financial reform, the Group of Thirty, a body of financial experts, mentioned it more than 30 times. Transparency is in vogue.”

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Related posts:

  1. NKF – more in reserves now than during the scandal
  2. No more 56-man years to know reserves
  3. Dipping into the reserves – a change of heart
  4. President breaks silence on unlocking reserves
  5. Reserves are for a rainy day



49 Comments

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northern-exposure
Feb 23, 2009 19:26

I am personally perturbed and puzzled by the veil of secrecy over the GIC losses and amt. Why all the hush hush ?

I am certain there’s a platoon of civil servants, ministers included, combing forum pages like this and keenly aware of that it is already coffeeshop talk about the govt reluctance to reveal the GIC losses. Are they afraid of opening up the pandora box ?

ErniesUrn (Ernie)
Feb 23, 2009 19:36

Sigh poor civil servants ..let us all ease their pain and suffering of being transparent and accountable. It’s too much for them. Let us be merciful.

Saves them the suspence of whether they should tender their resignation or update their resume. Let’s help them. Vote them out.

Edward
Feb 23, 2009 21:05

LKY has mentioned it was not good to let the people know too much about the financial matters concerning the reserves. He was right. Now, citizens are criticising and blaming the PM and the Ministers.

If the American govt were to nationalise BOA and Citi Bank as reported in the US press, then Temasek’s and GIC’s investments in these banks would not be just paper loss but REAL loss. It will no longer be investment for the long term. You hope Obama won’t do it.

anomynous
Feb 23, 2009 21:08

Leong Sze Hian: “If indeed this is true, I see no reason why GIC’s losses cannot be disclosed, as it may indicate that the loss was only about less than 10 per cent, which is a very credible performance in this financial crisis.”

Precisely my sentiment as well. How come the govt is not claiming any credit for a job well done. I hence fear the reality is not so rosy as they are prepared to leak out. Incidentally, they chose Wall Street Journal (WSJ) to leak out GIC having lost about S$50b. This is a calculated move to use a brand name (WSJ) to lend some credibility to the leaked story. It is really up to each individual to take it with a pinch of salt or not.

Blur
Feb 23, 2009 21:44

I find the so called leaked of the loss of GIC strange and my
gut feel is that the information is incorrect. As to how large
the losses are, we are awaiting for some official explanation
to put to rest the matter.

Koh
Feb 23, 2009 22:11

massive losses in the billions and the gahmen thinks it can handle this by being hush hush… This will be a major ‘PR’ blunder exercise of how an organisation NOT handle a crisis. Losses in BILLIONS, Mr PM, do not take your citizens as fools.

DavidSeeLeongKit
Feb 23, 2009 22:20

A rightful/sarcastic comment once posted by a young S’pore netizen:

“The PAP Government is soooooo TRANSPARENT, it is INVISIBLE !!!”

humpty invis t-shirt no kangaroo
Feb 23, 2009 22:44

I trust them wan. surely they invest with excellent results wan. I actually hope they impress us with their talented results. But we may not get the pleasure of being impressed any time yet.

sigh….. i trust wan. I very very trust wan. u believe the me or not? maybe? maybe not? no no ?

Cheng Yi Feng Ah Gor
Feb 23, 2009 22:53

Who here really knows about the reserves, and i don’t mean the nature reserves?

if don’t know, what basis is there for discussion?

more or less? who would know?

i asked a stranger while at a food stall, and she said, she believes this and that is the case. who really knows for sure? in a scientific world, trusting is nice. but also need black and white just to comfom.

T
Feb 23, 2009 23:01

History has been made.

As of Sunday, DBS’s market cap of US$12bn is bigger than Citi Group’s market cap if US$10.6bn.

You heard it here first…

Wee Su Su teh tarek tom
Feb 23, 2009 23:08

The obviousness of the issue vs the mentality of the uniques.

incomprehensible!

DP
Feb 23, 2009 23:22

Besides the GIC losses, what I would like to know is how much they paid themselves. Did they have pay themselves millions in bonus like the american banks to lose billions of our reserves.

SZ
Feb 23, 2009 23:28

Well, personal opinion here is just like what many of you feels…if the lost is really such a little percentage compared to others, they would have proclaim it and say how great they are cos they suffer such a small lost vis-a-vis elsewhere

however, when there is silence over some issue…i guess we all know what it means

eternalhap
Feb 23, 2009 23:40

“With regards to the remarks that “Temasek’s 31 per cent drop in portfolio value was less than the 44 per cent plunge in the MSCI Singapore Index and the 45 per cent delcine in the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index in the same period”, it may not be very appropriate to benchmark a globally diversified sovereign wealth fund portfolio against a 100 per cent equities portfolio in just a single country or region”

This is factually wrong. Temasek Holdings, as its name implies, holds shares in companies. And most of these companies are in OECD economies, S’pore, and Asia ex Japan (China, Korea and Taiwan). Hence MSCI S’pore Index and MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index are good benchmarks to measure Temasek’s performance.

Apparently many people do not understand this.

me
Feb 23, 2009 23:41

“As of Sunday, DBS’s market cap of US$12bn is bigger than Citi Group’s market cap if US$10.6bn.”

singapore > USA

DBS > Citibank

cheers Singaporeans. more good years ahead. we will buy over USA soon.

tiredsingaporean
Feb 23, 2009 23:43

President Obama says it is ‘outrageous’ that Wall Street employees got more than $18 billion in bonuses last year. The bonuses came at the same time financial companies were accepted federal bailou… watch youtube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaA-w5FdZoI

Just curious how much bonuses in total were being paid out to the all those elites for TM & GIC last year? since there were never any news of these bonuses being published at all.

tiredsingaporean
Feb 24, 2009 0:04

Bush Hands Out Another $140 Billion Before He Leaves Office . . . . watch youtube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ywhx3W34xg

NORTHGATE2007
Feb 24, 2009 7:31

Temasek’s lossess Might be MORE than they claimed….

Richard Tan
Feb 24, 2009 9:32

We want ed to know the losses from Temasek & GIC is due to the world financial crisis or due to mishandling of the reserves. The losses maybe accumulate losses from the pass ten or five years and not due to the Global Financial Issues. Why Government are so afraid of letting the SIngaporean know about it. $58 billion & $50 or $33 billion losses are not peanut, is a huge amount to us small Singaporean.

Yes there will be losses in investment, but we know from the news and medias, Temasek still pumping money into those Financial companies that are having huge losses, aren’t this mishandling of our nation reserves. Why again no one are responsible to it. What is our World Class President & Ministers doing, knowing that Temasek and GIC throwing huge amount of national reserves into a SINKing SHIPs.

Now we poor Singaporean still don’t have the RIGHTs to ask about it and requesting our Government to reveal the reserves and to do an External Auditing to this two World Class Companies.

mars
Feb 24, 2009 9:35

GIC is headed by LKY while Temasek is lead by HC, the daughter in law.

neversaydie
Feb 24, 2009 9:48

To Edward:

Not letting people know how much reserve there is benefit LKY more than the people a lot.

It is not normal than a supposedly conservative fund lose that much.

Fribbles
Feb 24, 2009 10:55

Maybe it would take 58 man years to calculate the full extent of losses.. oh wait, thats worst case scenario. I think should be say, 20 man years?

tiredsingaporean
Feb 24, 2009 11:10

BAD NEWS AGAIN – New U.S. stake in Citigroup may not calm doubts – Reuters

Citigroup began raising capital aggressively in late 2007, including from Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Kuwait Investment Authority and Singapore Investment Corp.

Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the bank’s largest individual shareholder, also boosted his stake.

Singapore declined to comment. The others were not immediately available for comment.

stupid man
Feb 24, 2009 12:19

GIC run by LKY mah. You dun know LKY mer, as long as he happy he can lose the entire singapore to foreigner but tell you (commoner) nothing about it.

What can you do?

T
Feb 24, 2009 13:22

From the Hansard – no, GIC did not lose 41%.

The relevant portion is towards the end of the transcript in the link before. LHH was referring to the decline in World Equity Index of 42% which she recalled wrongly as 41%.

http://www.parliament.gov.sg/parlweb/get_highlighted_content.jsp?docID=422448&hlLevel=Terms&links=LIM,HWEE,HUA&hlWords=%20%20&hlTitle=&queryOption=1&ref=http://www.parliament.gov.sg:80/reports/public/hansard/title/20090210/20090210_S0003_T0004.html#1

/// Mrs Lim Hwee Hua: Sir, I have given that reply to a previous parliamentary question, that GIC has actually registered a significantly lower reduction in value than the World Equity Index which I believe was 41% – let me just clarify that it is actually in the Hansard*. ///

NORTHGATE2007
Feb 24, 2009 18:16

loss is still a LOST<,,

Donaldson Tan
Feb 24, 2009 18:25

The numbers may be doctored. You all might recall the official revision to international accounting standards on the book value of illiquid securities. The book value of such securities are no longer marked to market, instead their long term projected values would be used as the book values.

powerless
Feb 24, 2009 19:18

GIC’s failure to disclose its losses and LKY’s silence (especially when he is most vocal when wrongly accused) is scary and has removed all confidence one has in the whole system.

I recall – many years ago when there was rumour of him buying some private condo at a discount from a developer…..there was a big huha….he chose to appear on TV before a commission of enquiry (if I recall correctly) explaining every detail of the transaction to dispell all suspicions.

The amount involved is now million-fold more and involving the country…not personal…and there is this deadly silence from the most vocal man in Singapore.

Edward
Feb 24, 2009 22:34

#28) powerless
‘I recall – many years ago when there was rumour of him buying some private condo at a discount from a developer…..there was a big huha….he chose to appear on TV …………………’
=============================

There was disquiet. When he was critised for receiving a 5% discount from the developer he was very adamant that he had done nothing wrong. Instead he insisted that by buying the property he had enhanced the value of the whole project and the developer should be very grateful.

In the end, good sense prevailed. He donated the discounted amount to charity. It would be very interesting to know why he changed his mind.

make it simple
Feb 24, 2009 23:17

In investments, its normal to have gains and losses.
The main and only issue of discussion or concern is
can we the mere mortals , the stakeholders of the country, the concerned citizens , the tax payers know what is going on in a sure kind of way?

that is the only issue i see here.

tiredsingaporean
Feb 25, 2009 0:16

27) Donaldson Tan on February 24th, 2009 6.25 pm
Talking about book value, remember those figures are done by people, nothing is now safe to believe what you see on papers. See for yourself in youtube what happened in US just months before the financial meltdowns, scandals after scandals all to do with greed and money from private sectors all the way to the state funds, billions and billions were being swindled and those being responsible can still walked out scot-free. This world is becoming darker and darker as the days passed.

Daniel
Feb 25, 2009 0:53

tiredsingaporean,
the difference between US and Singapore is that US government is exposing the FI practice that it used to close one eyes to whereas the Singapore government try to coverup whatever the FI done in the name of secrecy and self-protectionism.

bahlookoo anonymous
Feb 25, 2009 10:08

Who here believes that the people will never see the accounts?
never as in never ever.

My guess is, sooner or later…..

So, the question is Can We Handle The Truth?

Goh Chock Bong
Feb 25, 2009 10:20

‘Never’ is a strong word.

There is more chance that it might be revealed one day than Never revealed forever.

tiredsingaporean
Feb 25, 2009 10:55

33) bahlookoo anonymous on February 25th, 2009 10.08 am Who here believes that the people will never see the accounts?
never as in never ever.
So, the question is Can We Handle The Truth?

The question is they can’t even handle the truth themselves becos majority of them are already blinded with $$$ thrown to them at the expense of the taxpayers, so they prefer to close both eyes and pretend they do not know. So much talks about a caring society . . . . ahhhhhhh pui!

kangoroovan
Feb 25, 2009 11:03

any of you ever do business in usa?
do you know
it more profitable
if you declared a LOSS in annual report?
why you may asked
lets says i report loss of $41billion$ in paper losse$
which actually truthfooly
i only lost $30billion$
so where do the balance goes
for me
its time for my annual pigrimage trip to swiss alps
i need to buy a rolex for my wife again

People Representators
Feb 25, 2009 11:35

The people elected so many of these talented talents to REPRESENT us.
I am touched!

courtesy of http://www.dictionary.com :
REPRESENT : to express or designate by some term, character, symbol, or the like: to represent musical sounds by notes.
3. to stand or act in the place of, as a substitute, proxy, or agent does: He represents the company in Boston.

I am sure they have done their job.

These talents, so deserving.

Ah Mui Anonymous
Feb 25, 2009 11:38

To know is not
to blame or find fault or praise.
It is a matter of public interest.
But is it ILLEGAL to know?

Good performance should be shown to the people for them to know how well you have performed.

Percevale
Feb 25, 2009 12:41

Haven’t you all realised? It’s NOT YOUR money.

It’s theirs.

Which other “provident fund” can AND has, on a whim, change the requirements under which you can withdraw your own money?

If it’s really your money- don’t you think you’d have more say over how it’s used or released?

That there’d be less coincidental changes in regulations of the withdrawal process during periods of:
- when raising ministerial salaries
- when the reserves have incurred massive losses, etc

Get it in your heads. It’s not yours. Accept the truth and be free. :P

IF they wanted- they could even make it legal to confiscate your CPF funds for the sake of “national security in times of economic crisis”. Who could stop them anyway? A Parliamentary majority of 82 – 2?

To paraphrase The Emperor in Phantom Menace-
“Is that.. illegal?”
“I will make it legal.”

young mindset
Feb 25, 2009 14:00

this country is really young, indeed. ;)

notalone
Feb 25, 2009 18:39

It is also our money, so to be fair, send a copy of the financial report to all Singaporeans.

By the way,
PAP=Government,
Government = Constitution,
but Constitution not=PAP.

My point is, whichever political is in power should not manupilate the Constitution to its own political advantage as one must respect the individual rights of our citizens.

Therefore, if the purpose to withhold the truth is not to jeopardise PAP’s political standings, it is not fair and not right at all.

Man_on_ the_street
Feb 25, 2009 19:21

We all can accept that in trading or investments either the party lose or win and have to accept the result of its decision. So whether we like it or not we have to accept the results of TM and GIC’s investment. By the same token, since we are compulsorily made to save into CPF, we have the right to know where, why, when or how our money is being invested and most importantly safeguarded. What is the trigger point where we say enough is enough. Or do we go all way out till we are broke? Surely we have the right to see where our captain is taking us right?

We implement a “second key” policy so safeguard our reserves. In this difficult time, our dear president exercised the policy. On one hand this policy is supposed to safeguard our reserves, on the other hand all the secrecy imposed by the GIC may result in a reverse effect.

It is because of all the secrecy and cover up of what really goes on behind the scene that resulted in the collapse of the global financial system. I hope we have learnt from that and correct quickly before it is too late. Even the existence of the age old Swiss banking secrecy trademark is being threatened and I believe will have to go or be perceived as unfair trading as other country’s banks do not have this advantage.

The current credit crisis has shown clearly that CEOs who stayed too long (more than 5 yrs) as in the case of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns – tend to be surrounded by people who are prone to listen to him as oppose to challenging his ideas. We must learn that if our style and system of “investment secrecy” prevails for too long, our ever growing invesments will be sub-conciously and complacently headed for trouble. No challenge, no gain right?

2 months ago, Citibank and AIG issued publications to say they are well capitalised,..backed by sufficient assets….and etc. Now they are in deeper trouble. Not only are they owing what they borrow, they are bleeding to death and now on the brink of being kaput. These are extraordinary times, so lets forget about “long term investment theory” and be prepared for total write off for investments in most financial instituitions by TM and GIC. While we can acknowledge with credit that TM and GIC have done well in the past, we also hope that they are gracious enough to acknowlege that these are extraordinary times. It is time to be open, acknowledge the bad investments, give assurances, exercise prudency and move forward.

Most of all, in the uncertain times ahead let the people know what is our safeguard policy?

Gumpert Apollo
Feb 25, 2009 20:44

technically speaking
parties can come and go.
Constitution here to stay.

Jiang Jing Lan
Mar 3, 2009 18:31

I just googled citi share price and its now 1.20 as shown on google.
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:C

Wow, it kept dropping. At this jaw dropping low price, is it not time to invest even more so as to achieve even more prosperity in terms of gains when the shares skyrocket once more in the future where the future is an unknown time frame?

Think long term ok
Mar 3, 2009 18:49

“I just googled citi share price and its now 1.20 as shown on google.”

Could you please sa-lat (shut out). Listen here, think long term ok. Remember the following ok.

“They do not have to sell in panic in a market downturn, and are in fact in an advantageous position to invest in good quality assets at prices that are attractive from a long-term perspective during a downturn. The government is confident that they will continue to deliver good long-term returns within the risk limits set.”

You should only come back at least 10 years later to question ok. remember again, think long term ok.

headless pinkie runs amok
Mar 3, 2009 23:52

wow, took how long to accumulate our reserves?
independence for over 40 years liao right or not?
so, look at the signs of the times. i don’t mean the + / – lah.
i hope for more good year.

Nathane Chen Shui Lian
Mar 4, 2009 14:18

Hi People,

I feel that just TRUST can already. More efficient. For example, just ask and based on trust, your director sign on the dot and approve. Like this is called efficiency. Work gets done faster.

So, I trust them. I like the idea of ‘long term’. In the long run, the share price may go up. ‘Long’ as in something like 20 years.

Being impressed, i wonder should this be the defacto standard for the industries? should this be a best practice for respectable companies? I mean large credible companies would they adopt this kind of thingie – measure company performance by the long term ? like this share/stake- holders need not worry for the short term since in the long term, the share price will go up?
Give time for CEOs to prove themselves in 20 years. less turnover. good good right?

Also, i like the idea of no need to disclose accounts. I mean, if based on trust already, is there still a need to disclose? hey, many man-years needed to find out the details wor. need to go through a large project and pay and pay many auditors wor. got more important thingies to do right?

so, just my humble thoughts. I wonder how those who feel that a system based on trust is good enough feel about this thingy?

aiyoyo
Mar 4, 2009 21:00

aiyoyo

saw cna news :

“GIC takes a very conservative approach – low risk, low returns.
Temasek goes in for higher rewards, higher risk, and they need a very dynamic team to keep nimble to move with the market and move faster than the market.

“Ho Ching has been doing this for many years now and she thinks it’s a good time to make a change. I don’t think it’s got anything to do with the failed investments in banking. This is part of the ups and downs of any investor,”
Mr Lee added.

aiyoyo

singaporeanCA
Mar 10, 2009 12:28

This is good read:

http://johnharding.com/

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