Everytime after a crisis, with hindsight, they say oh, problem solved! Financial systems are now under control, causes known, solutions found. Should not repeat itself. And when the next crisis comes along, they say its something new.

1. Immediate – create a secondary local Singapore market
Many Singaporeans do not have the right skill sets to participate in the global economy (e.g. ah-Peks, aunties, not-so-well-schooled etc). We need a secondary domestic market for them to participate in to earn a basic livelihood.

Remove internal barriers of trade: prohibitive rental, unnecessary licensing and policing, ban on posting of advertisement / bills on bus-stops, unfair advantages to NTUC etc. Singaporeans must be allowed to trade freely, to buy and sell low-cost necessities such as clothing, food, groceries etc.

This will lower cost of living for ordinary Singaporeans, and stimulate our local economy.

2. Mid-Long term – integrate and drive ASEAN economy
Recognise that Singapore is NOT a global city. We are NOT in China or India. As much as we must participate in the greater economic systems, our geographical location, international standing and political-economy history has determined that we are not at the core of the West, China or India.

We are in Southeast Asia. By many counts, we may be considered THE CITY in SEA.

Indeed SEA’s economy is currently nothing like China’s – but therein lies the opportunities. Intra-ASEAN trade remains limited because of the diversity of languages and legal-economic frameworks. Singapore has the advantages in that we have an English speaking population and strong and proper organisational systems.

We must promote the learning and use of English in SEA. Young Singaporeans must also pick up at least one of the local SEA languages (Malay, Indonesian, Thai, Vietnamese etc). With the proper language skills, plus our professional capabilities, we can position Singapore as the heart / hub of ASEAN.

Education, health, basic infrastructure remain poorly developed in most parts of SEA. Singapore Inc must learn to specialize in providing such basic amenities to our neighbours. Insufficient funding and rampant corruption should demand that such ventures be of small scale and not show-piece projects. However, there are still millions of dollars available for development works in SEA through the World Bank, ADB, NGOs, and local governments. Our expertise can help to ensure that this become money well-spent.

The failures and selfishness of political elites, rich businessmen, bankers et al are all too obvious. By creating market space for ordinary Singaporeans, and raising the quality of the people in our neighbouring countries, we are essentially driving a “bottom-up” economic growth and model, to run parallel to the existing “top-down” mode.

Probably not a formula for rapid and high growth, but should at least help Singaporeans to stand on firm economic ground. We must first ensure survival before we can grow.

IF a citizen in singapore can have an ALTERNATIVE solution to improve or replace the current model,
I might say this chap qualifies to form an Alternative party to bring singapore forward, if he choose not to join the incumbent.

please note the big ‘IF’.

The myth that economic crisis comes every 10 years is now Busted completely as said by the TV host that singapore (and asia) is suffering from its 2nd crisis in 10 years. Sounds more like every 5 years.

Nevertheless, our expectation of more good years shall continue.

3) Nandal Barujibugee on February 1st, 2009 10.35 pm

The myth that economic crisis comes every 10 years is now Busted …

All thanks to the globalization. It might still be valid if the world did not get itself into globalization.

I for one is not that qualified to offer qualitative, sound and effective comments for re any alternative with regards to the quesion of Singapore going for another model. Thats precisely the reason to have voted for the present govt. If not why I shouldnt offer to run for that matter as argument sake.
Thus said, since Singapore has fallen into recession again in as many years, I am, being a citizen on the basis of free speech hereby criticise the current govenment has failed. Failed in not preventing Singapore slipping into another recession, and blaming we being plugged into the world as a reason for us falling into recession.
Then why pay ministers millions of dollars of salaries for what ? For not admitting to governing mistakes, bringing us into recession every 5 years??
Staying together, moving ahead, more good years – these are in layman terms salesman talk.
Why not just simply say that we we dont have better alternative to current govt is because of repressive policies and dogma that prevent and curtailed brainier ideas to surface and flourish??

If there is one thing i take away with me watching this videos, it is that
you and me have potential to be an economist.
For now, your guess is as good as mine and as good as some economists’.

Some of the words that touched me most are :

Cyrus : “…….we are not saying get rid of Globalization, we are saying be self sustained 1st and then go out. your dependency on anyone country to be 80% of your export is just fundamentally bad economics and bad business sense….most asean countries are pretty self-sustained (got farming etc)…”

singapore oso got hydroponic farming wor. :) can sg sustain?

“….worst than 97 crisis….we are gonna see worse than 97 crisis…”

Cyrus : “…latin america and russian economies are still growing….”

not all economies jia lat wor….. their model good ?

I thought PM goh commented that our efforts in China was bearing fruits when people questioned him about the minibonds and he made the famous ” this is a small issue and many people lost even more money in the crisis” comment.

Are we that successful in China?

Should have been MM Goh… btw Tan Kin Lian remove the link to this website from his blog… any issues between Tan and TOC?

Quite true – to have a sustainable economy, you have to have a local market. In the case of the U.S., the local market is shrinking because of unemployment. The only cure for this is for the U.S. to stop manufactured imports. The effect would be to boost production in the U.S. thereby reducing U.S. unemployment (at the expense of the rest of the world). Once the U.S. is on its feet, if it wants, it can try to help the rest of the world, but until then, it has to be America First.

Singapore should do the same, starting with farming.

Mon

What talk you?

Need new glasses?

Domestic Market?
Is the world gonna shift paradigm to Domestic or local market to be self sustaining?

Oh my lord! what would happen to singapore if that is the case?
Unlike Taiwan and S.Korea, who are not yet in Recession, Singapore is extremely Dependent or Reliant on Export market. Can Sg be self sustaining at all?

Sg, HK and Japan have been in recession since last year.

Maybe Leong S H and Tan K L can share their personal take on the paradigm shift, if any?

Is Sg Model still relevant in this modern times?

If you read my blog, which is becoming very popular in the US, you will see that the US has all it needs to make ALL its manufactured goods. Commodities can still be imported. When the US cuts of imports of manufactured products, commodity prices will collapse. This is the case of crude oil, at present. I worked for Saudi Aramco, and the cost of Saudi Arabia to produce a barrel of crude oil is under US!1.00. When the US stops the importation of foreign manufactured goods, commodities will be dirt cheap.

It’s got to be America First. I recommend that you listen to this song, America First sung by Merle Haggard: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-m94nVwZO4

12) Little S on February 2nd, 2009 9.35 am

Domestic Market?
Is the world gonna shift paradigm to Domestic or local market to be self sustaining?

The remarks about domestic market is in the context that economies like Singapore is putting too much dependency on export in the rush towards globalization. No one is calling for isolated domestic economy like N Korea.

Yes, it will be a big challenge and almost impossible for Singapore to have a self-sustainable domestic market.

Would it be wrong to start hunting for greener pastures as backup plan? I mean just as a backup plan in case?
any comments?

But does sg really have much of a Domestic Market?
What is gonna happen to sg? :(

15) Invisible T-shirt on February 2nd, 2009 3.55 pm

But does sg really have much of a Domestic Market?

Singapore has domestic market. The problem is that the domestic market depend on imported stuff to operate. This domestic market can function only because Singapore also export out stuff.

In other ASEAN nations, they have self-sustainable domestic market. The key is self-sustainable, with local resources and production activities to fuel the domestic market. Singapore has no such local resources. It only resources, the port and people need international trade to generate financial gains.

Little S (#12),

Singapore ought to be putting up a lot of effort to build up our domestic and regional (Southeast Asia) market to create a self-sustaining solution for our economic future.

ASEAN integration would be the key effort to create an ASEAN Common Market. Market integration will come slowly but surely. Perhaps at this time of economic difficulty, all ASEAN member states ought to be promoting “Eat ASEAN, Buy ASEAN, Hire ASEAN”.

However, the problem ASEAN faces is that all ASEAN economies are export-led and they export a similar range of products. There is lack of complementary economic activities among ASEAN member states now and it is definitely now we ought to be building complementary economic sectors to accelerate the market integration process.

4) Little S on February 2nd, 2009 3.52 pm

“Would it be wrong to start hunting for greener pastures as backup plan? I mean just as a backup plan in case?
any comments?”

Personally, i don’t think it is wrong. we live in a Darwinian world, very realistic where the strong will survive. It is good to keep your option open, and i think some of our great leaders has already create the backup plan if something occur

How big is the GLC all add together?
I think it would be good if more can be really privatised or let more locals compete for the same services. Less monopoly and allow more players to compete. no one owes no one nothing correct?

It doesn’t mean much to say that Singapore’s growth model works: Singapore is a small and unique country, so Singapore cannot compare itself to its neighbors. The theorizing about Singapore is only applicable to Singapore, and will likely only occur in Singapore. In practice, because of Singapore’s strict control on political and thus policy thoughts, there are probably few models that are discussed.

Even if Singapore’s export-dependent growth model “works”, it doesn’t mean that it is better than most other potential alternatives. There is, in a sense, no alternatives to compare to. Discussions on this will be impoverished, at least initially.

Singapore, with relative high labor costs for Asia, is going to have a very difficult time with exports. China and Taiwan are cheaper, even for custom manufacturing.

The bloated Singapore population may come to present a very serious problem. What to do with thousands of FTs out of work.? Ship them back to China? As in the last recession, Singapore can begin building to create jobs. It was a good plan then, and it could be a good plan now – so long as the depression (and that is where we are at) does not last too long.

If the depression lasts too long, what are we looking at?

Singapore boat people?

Just a little comment here on manufacturing comparison between Taiwan and Singapore. How come Taiwan can be a manufacturing base for so many of the everyday electronic stuff we used. For Taiwanese companies – there are Asus, Acer etc etc. Hong Hai, Formosa plastics are others. Venture, Creative comes to mind about Singapore.

I personally do not think we should worry whether the recession will come every 5 years or 10 years… this is not relevant in the context of preparation. If we observed and studied all the past recession, you will see that prior to each recession, there are often key indicators showing the occurrence of a recession during the good times..yet many leaders were not conscious of this and choose to ill prepare for the crisis. Some leaders were aware of the indicators but choose to ignore the signs. Just like global warming, we know is there, we are aware of it, but some countries just choose to ignore it. This disaster will come eventually, the question for us all is whether we are well prepare for it when the wave hits us.

I do not expect Singapore to change the world, as changes beyond our shores are out of the control of our our government’s capabilities. Realistically, do you expect 4.5 mil. people to change the mind of 1.3b people in China? So let us be realistic with our expectation.

Globalization is a reality for the future… and as we become more technologically advance, we will have an increasing integrated world. This happened during the last industrial revolution and I believed it will happened again in the coming participation age. However, Singaporean are ill prepare for the changes… and unfortunately our government only knew about how ill prepare we are in 1997 financial crisis. Good for us, they started preparing the workforce since then.

Now… I see this as an opportunity for all Singaporean to wake up and start preparing for the future again. We need all citizens and PR to have a career plan… a direction in life so that you know how you can be prepare for future crisis…

Since NTUC Learning Hub and CDC provides free career assessment now, why can’t we mandate all Singaporean and PR to complete an assessment so that MOM have a clear picture of what is missing, what can be done to help, and how we can create a cohesive workforce for Singapore that can handle future recession? It is not important whether you are working or not working now.. The question is whether you will be Employable in the future… what additional skills, knowledge, and network do you need now to ensure all of us are employable in future…. Like health screening for all citizens and PR, we should all take a “health screening” for our career preparation to ensure we are healthy in meeting future challenges.

In addition, I like to see all students get similar screening prior to graduating from college, polytechnic or schools. The purpose is to help them see the TRUTH about their market values before they join the workforce. Have a plan on how they will compete with foreign talents and be provided with career coaching support to implement those plans. None of us are perfect, and through the assessment, I hope all of us reflect on the true picture and see our own weaknesses in our career development.

Like cancer screening, not knowing the truth does not make it better. Getting the true picture now before you lose your job, will allow you to be better prepare for the future. Ignoring it will only causes us to fall prey to future retrenchment. I felt NTUC Learning Hub should take the lead, help all Singaporean to develop a career plan and implement a career plan. If we can get 98% of Singaporean and PR into such a mindset, we will be a force in the global economy in 2010 and beyond.

22) Adam Smit on February 3rd, 2009 11.18 am

Just a little comment here on manufacturing comparison between Taiwan and Singapore.

One possible explanation is the number of NMC and talents in respective countries. In Singapore, the NMCs absorbed the talents and there is little incentive for people to start their own company. In contrast, Taiwan may have the critical mass of talents to start their own business.

#25) Gary Khoo – “leaders were not conscious…I see this as an opportunity for all Singaporean to wake up…”

Can’t agree more! Yet you want people to be mandated to take assessments by NTUC, CDC so that MOM can tell us what we are worth and dictate what we should do with our future?

Almost anyone who has working experience in or with the govt institutions can testify what sort of people staff these establishments.

Singaporeans wake up! Our “leaders” are not conscious…

22) Dingfeng on February 3rd, 2009 1.56 am

In my humble opinion, it is no smart to think that 1 model works forever.

Who would challenge me if I say ‘no one knows what is happening in the world economy or any economy.’

my guess sometimes is as good as an economist’s, to my surprise.

this video busted wide open the Myth that someone knows for sure what is going on.

“In June 2007, OECD said economic condition was best in years and two months later the crisis began”

The above statement sums up everything in 1 short concise statement.

anyone feel like challenging hindsight?