Tuesday, February 24, 2009 11:18
Why an election in September is most likely
In Guest Writers, Main Stories • 3,067 views • 52 Comments
Jason Lee
In recent weeks, a hot topic that is buzzing at coffee shops and online forums is whether a general election (GE) will be held soon?
In my view, the answer is a clear cut YES. The next question is: When?
While some have argued that the ruling People’s Action Party is likely to call a GE as early as March 2009, I do not think an election will be held within the next six months – primarily because of three key factors.
Off-Budget measures: Need to use current reserves for new initiatives
For one, the PAP government certainly knows it has to introduce off-Budget measures later this year to help Singaporeans and businesses cope with the economic downturn. With the US economy expected to worsen in the next few months, the PAP’s $20.5 billion Budget would have to be enhanced with more ‘sweetening’ initiatives that would be felt directly by the ordinary man-in-the-street.
Besides the political need to offer such ‘sweets’ to the electorate before asking for their ballots, one noteworthy factor is such that if the PAP calls for an election before introducing off-Budget measures, all the reserves accumulated by the government up to the election date would be locked up and treated as past reserves. Hence it means the new government would have nothing in its ‘reserves chest’ to pay for any new schemes which would be introduced to help Singaporeans cope with the recession.
Of course the PAP can always seek the President’s permission to dip into past reserves again, but would it want to do so and raise controversies and debates for the second time in less than a year?
National Day Rally: ‘Uniting’ the nation
What better opportunity to ‘unite’ the nation and ask for their support (read: mandate) than the annual National Day Rally? Yes, I believe it is highly possible that the Prime Minister would utilise this year’s NDR – which I reckon would be scheduled on 16 August – to rally the nation. Beyond such talk of how unity is crucial during difficult times, I would of course expect more ‘carrots’ to be dangled in front of the nation – with a possible objective of ‘sweetening’ the ground which is likely to have soured significantly by that time.
APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting (14-15 November 2009)
Taking into consideration the above factors, it means the GE is likely to be held after mid-August.
But I would also rule out the fourth quarter of the year because of the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting (AELM) which would be held from 14-15 November.
That means the possible window for an election starts in mid-August and ends around mid-October (on the assumption that the Singapore authorities require a month for their logistical preparations for the AELM).
12 September 2009?
Traditionally, most GEs were held during school holidays, for the convenience factor since many schools were used as polling stations – even though the last GE on May 6, 2006 did not take place during the school holidays.
This time round, I am expecting Polling Day to be scheduled during the school holidays in September: 12 September 2009, Saturday, to be exact.
One key factor behind my humble guess is that the ruling party’s candidates can ‘leverage’ on the National Day Rally (read: goodies and carrots offered to Singaporeans) to boost their support levels – especially during campaigning.
That Singapore would host the upcoming AELM is also likely to be a political tool – as the ruling elite can ‘solicit’ for more votes by urging the electorate to demonstrate to the world that Singapore has a stable government backed by the people’s ‘mandate’– a ‘pre-requisite’ which would enhance “investors’ confidence in Singapore”.
While I personally do not believe that Ms Ho Ching would embark on a political career, it is interesting to note that she would step down as CEO of Temasek Holdings on October 1. Wouldn’t an election date in September provide good timing if she indeed makes a transition from the corporate world to the political arena?
Other factors deemed less significant: Lack of new faces and worsening economic conditions
The lack of new faces on the ground should count for little when we ponder over whether a GE would be held this year. Since when has ground experience been a pre-requisite for the PAP when it fields new candidates? Yes, there had been cases of some Young PAP members who were fielded as candidates but are we sure all the new candidates in the last election had worked the ground for a significant period before they were introduced as new candidates?
Since our electoral system is based largely on the GRC concept, does it matter whether a new candidate works hard at the ground level before he is fielded? Just send him or her into a GRC (which is always the case anyway) – ideally anchored by a heavyweight minister – and we would all agree that his lack of experience at the constituency level is no obstacle to his political career and aspirations!
Another key factor that has been debated is whether the PAP is willing to take a risk and wait for another few months before calling for a snap poll. The argument goes along the line that should the economy worsen in the next few months, the PAP could lose more votes than if the elections were to be held today.
However, I would argue that worsening economic conditions (read: more retrenchments) are not necessarily a handicap for the PAP. It could in fact be an ‘ace card’ for the ruling regime.
Look around us today – the queues at shopping malls, the crowds at travel fairs and car road shows etc. I reckon it is reasonable to state that the full impact of the global crisis has not been felt by many Singaporeans on an individual basis. This is perhaps understandable since many of us still hold a job. Nevertheless, economists and political leaders have already warned of tougher times (read: more retrenchments, possibilities of pay cuts) in the next few months ahead. Hence, the PAP’s likely message during campaigning – that it is THE party to lead Singapore to recovery – would certainly sound more ‘persuasive’ in the later part of the year (as compared to now).
Considering that the elections need not be held until February 2012, such speculation of a snap poll seems a little premature. However, in view of the above factors, I am placing my bet on September 12, 2009 as the date Singaporeans elect their next government. Any takers?
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Picture from wantunn
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Related posts:
52 Comments
SZ
ErniesUrn (Ernie)
PAP ( ) , OPPO ( X ) ..heh heh
T
My guess would be in the first half, possibly in the first quarter for 3 main reasons:
1) PAP is ready, and the opposition are not as well prepared.
2) The economy and retrenchment will get much, much worse as year progresses.
3) The goodies (Resilience Package) has already been announced.
Please Makes Sense
My guess is Apr/ May 2009.
(1) Talks of Citi and BOA nationalising so better hurry up. Loss in GIC and Temasek getting a lot of flake. Better do it earlier than the banks.
(2) Economy gets worst and those who claim credit for good times seems to have no control over bad times. Harder to claim the PAP is the only team that can bring us wealth.
(3) Less time for opposition to get ready.
I really look forward to this election..
Please Makes Sense
Forget to mention that it will defintely be this year because come Jan or Mar 2010; we will likely to have to dig into our reserves for further measures.
Also looking at the progress of the Marina Casino on the Singapore Flyer last weekend, it is hard for a layman like me to imagine that they will be operational by this year. Another reason to be early.
Oh did i say I look forward to this election…haha
dweller
well, there is always a chance that it might happen this yr.
Mr Chiam might be OUT this time round.
As a person with recovering from illness should not be blame for any decision he should make in the coming election.
He have done his part for the community & if he do retire…I wish him well.
They should be happy….the guy sho fail twice might get his chance now….hai.
The cart load of “CARROTS” might be the preparation & “WILL” be given to those who are hungry.
That’s how the system are run……
I WISH SG well in the coming years……if there is any???
Please make sense – you are looking forward to elections so you can vote for the PAP?
“Yes, there had been cases of some Young PAP members who were fielded as candidates but are we sure all the new candidates in the last election had worked the ground for a significant period before they were introduced as new candidates?”
Hi Jason, you may have underestimated the importance in which the PAP places on grassroots activities to test potential candidates. They do not parachute candidates from nowhere into GRCs.
SZ
How about MP that for the past years who have never done house-to-house visit are conducting it now? isn’t that a telltale sign of something is coming up?
T
The GE has to be this year, instead of dragging it until the end of the current mandate in 2012 as that will be the End of the World – you have been forewarned!!!
;)
Will The Earth Burn Up In 2012?
There has been much talk of late about the supposed doomsday prediction of December 21, 2012 as reflected in the Mayan long calendar. Most of the ancient Mayan codices were burned by Spanish monks in 1521 as works of the devil. (Full Story)
Mayan Inca Aztec Egyptian Prophecy of 2012
I came across this 4 part video series of the Mayan Inca Aztec Egyptian Prophecy of 2012. It seems that no matter if the prediction is 5 years old, 500 years old, or 5000 years old, they all point to the same date, December of 2012. (View Video)
NORTHGATE2007
why that eye-pain LOGO sign of a Party is sooo blurring>?
Jackson
I think the PAP will want an election this year because they may think of using the recession as a reason for them to be re-elected again as they think they are the only capable ones of solving this problem. However, the plan may backfire if they don’t thread carefully.
Are you prepared to go to jail for burning the PAP flag?
Are the opposition parties prepared for the GE? Don’t be caught off guard! The PAP gives you only 9 days’ notice which I believe is the shortest election campaign in the world – another No. 1 world record by Singapore.
The opposition parties should prepare for the GE now. It only takes the PAP a few days to introduce new candidates. By then, it will be too late for the opposition parties. Remember, you are fighting against the PAP with all the unfair tactics at their disposal.
smallvice585
It is not illegal to burn PAP’s flag. It is only illegal to burn national flags.
Khoo Cheng Han
12) Jackson on February 24th, 2009 6.30 pm
I beg to differ.
Whether its held today, yesterday, just now, june or december, next year or 2011, 2012, it won’t make any difference to the outcome. Through the use of internet, the majority is not reached. why? majority are apathetic. they use internet for things like net gaming, online shopping, MSM news and stocks and shares and dating or BGR thingies, fashion, songs, cars, education. Most here are the odd ones out being the non-apathetics. i welcome people , anyone, to challenge this assumption or analysis.
The fundamentals are not addressed head-on. whatever the reason or excuse is secondary to the fact.
woshiempire
i think that most singaporeans are like nvm 1 la de type of ppl. Most do not care about politics and dun like trouble.
hey got this game:
http://www.erepublik.com
it is a political/economic game. it only need like 5 mins to play daily.However,u must play daily everyday to have some ecarrier in the game.
#14) smallvice585 on February 24th, 2009 7.26 pm
It is not illegal to burn PAP’s flag. It is only illegal to burn national flags.
………………………………………………………………..
How come your post before mine was removed?
It may not be illegal to burn the PAP’s flag but if you do it in public, I think they will find an excuse to fix you up. Remember what LHL said at the PAP rally at Raffles Place during the 2006 GE? If more than 10 opposition party MPs are elected into Parliament he will fix them.
See what happened to JBJ, CSJ, FS,TLH, etc, etc…….?
David
Those people crowding at the mall or travel exhibition booth might not necessarily be Singaporean. Even if they are, they are mostly civil servants with iron rice bowl. We have been misled by MSM that everyone we saw on the street is Singaporean. Singaporan are those uncles and aunties loitering in the street, at the void deck. picking up cardboard and cans and busy on the road fetching passengers for a livings. We have on many occassions saw reporters, in our msm, interviewing workers at Raffles Place and many spoke with their native slangs and they are non local.
The party who kept singing foreigner tune by tagging them with high price and discounting Singaporean will definitely not get my mandate for the next term. I have already knew where my vote will go in the next election regardless how sweet the carrot will be. I have heard, learned and seen what is happening in the past couple of years and my decision is now casted in stone.
Nope!!! no way to betray our people who were borned here, served their national service, struggled to survive in our high cost of living and risked their last few day in JB nursing home.
I cannot stand the minister calling Singaporean a lesser mortal. Though my salary is no way near even a fraction of our ministers pay, we have dignity too.
I am also certain there will be further GST hike, and our ministers salaries increment have been deffered and not effectively cut during the down time. Whatever fees frozen this year are only an ilusion to prepare for further hike next year and reasons given might be similar to the past. Hopefully not for some stupid reason like transport fare not linked to oil price.
I agrred that election si sonne than we think:
1. A worsening economy will allow the govt to feel safe that any election called will mean that people will vote for them due to the feel-safe factor which is true.
2. LKY is rather old and thsi could be his last election.
3. LSL may want to introduce the new DPM so that he can prepare the person for eventual PM position.
4. PAP will want to ask for a mandate to govern the country in it’s worse recession
5. A change of minsterial positions seem to be in line here as some ministers did not perform up to the mark. Some many also want to step down after a long time in politics.
Hopefully we all got to vote this time round.
alky
Actually now that so many people are so tulan with the PAP, perhaps they may wait for LKY to pass away and then call for snap elections soon after.
Elites will definitely win through sympathy votes once LKY passes on.
This scenario i think has got the lowest risk for our elites in losing the next election and then after the dust has settled, we will definitely be the biggest losers again.
Question now is, do you think they will stoop so low to do that?
isa
That MP Wee from Jalan Kayu really … like belong in the Kayu GRC.
I sent him an email regarding nightly noise pollution at S11 foodcourt past midnight when a group of MOTORCYCLE Riders come and showcase their un-silenced motors.. The freaking thundering noise is causing me annoyance.
I wrote him to tell him to do something and HE HAVE YET TO REPLY TO ME AFTER 1 WEEK..
DO I HAVE TO BEG HIM Or GO AND COLLECT SIGNATURES ALONG THE BLOCKS TO HAVE HIM RESPONSE? WTF… YOU ARE MY MP .. AND YOU DONT EVEN HAVE TEH COURTESY TO RESPOND?
isa
Never Mind…
I just call the police and they have gone to handle it..
Hope it goes away …
MP WEEE…. Never mind me.. You continue to sleep tight..
MY Men-in-Blue will solve the problem…
Do our part
what do we ordinary Singaporeans get after so many years of PAP government?
I think we are worse off. We are squeezed into HDB built closer and closer to the main roads. We are attacked by all sorts of noice whole day. We are told to get ready for a population of 6.5 million or even more. We are not sure the persons you encounter everyday speak the same language.
We have no independent media, judicial system, strong opposition, freedom of expression, transparency and accountability; We have lost our national and cultural identity as they take away our traditions and old buildings.
We were told to sacrifice for the nation including doing NS but when you are injured, they tried to run away from responsibility.
Just ask: who get the best deal? Who are enjoying the fruits of all the hard labor? Who have the resources to run away from this country if it really got into big trouble, such as a state bankruptcy?
Does any of the ministers give you they impression that they will die for Singapore? Or they really care about the plight of ordinary Singapporeans?
Really, I can’t find a single one.
reminder
don’t be intimidated by economic conditions to feel compelled and make a mistake to vote for a certain party again.
you voted in 2006 and look what happened? – please refer to TOC’s reminder of the rising costs of living from 2006 all the way till now.
please use your vote properly this time ok?
bahlookoo anonymous
Well, it could be march, june or September and even dec or next year or 2011.
i think the opposition may not have done enough to be in time.
where are all the volunteers and grassroots activities?
IF the residents don’t even know you exist, all talk and activities on the net will mean ZILCH.
Most are Apathetic. Ya, i keep saying this. At the same time , i do not see the clear strategy to address this GAP.
tiredsingaporean
23) Do our part on February 25th, 2009 1.34 am
what do we ordinary Singaporeans get after so many years of PAP government?
Good question! what sort of stage do we land ourselves into now after trusting them all these years? do we have a choice? YES! OF COURSE! and do something about it!
If a picture means a thousand words….I know I am being a bit picky but for the sake of fairness and misrepresentation can you please change the attached photo to something more neutral. The PAP logo too biglah…
tiredsingaporean
not only its too big, its already a taboo sign to most singaporeans now. . . . .
kaomangai
I feel it in my bones (sorry, can’t resist that) that the election result this time round will not be what PAP expects or hope for in spite of the detailed fixing.
I think the “safe bet” vote during recession might not work this time since the PAP has demonstrated that there is really nothing they can do in times like this. We are probably at the bottom of the hole by time next election comes so it does not matter who gets to pick up the shovel. There are no more rabbits in the PAP hat to pull out. They said so themselves.
Also in the past 2 years, the cock ups in the leadership are so glaring that even hard core supporters find it hard sing the same song. There were really no leadership as a country and even you consider Singapore as a company, “top management” has always demonstrated that they are good in falling asleeep at the wheel.
The argument has always been that Singapore pay top money for top talents so that we can anticipate problems and plan contigencies. I think this one cannot fly already. This agrument works well for commercial entities but last time I checked, Singapore is still a country.
In tough times, only people with passion and a cause will stay to fight. Top talent paid for with top dollar will jump and find their next pay master.
So, my guess is that even the opposition puts up Ah Meng to stand for election against the PAP, it will still be a toss up as to who will get the vote. (My apologies to Ah Meng in the comparision.)
TOC be fair leh
toc be more fair leh. every flag should be given equal respect.
David
I agree with REMINDER. Never be afraid to vote otherwise and never get intimidated by PAP on the current recession. Singapore economy is very much affected by the global market in good and bad times. In good time, PAP claims credit to themselves and not Singaporean workers. in bad times they blame everything and everyone but themselves.
Whether you vote PAP or Opposition members, economy will not be affected by any ruling party because Singapore is part of the global economy.
We must then decide the impact on our pocket of whom we voted. Undeniably, after 2006 election, many Singaporean wallets have shrinked miserably and wages further depressed.
Unhappiness kept rising like inflations and will continue to stay unless we see drastic changes in Singapore. I am very dissappointed with the current ruling party and they don’t deserve a second chance after betraying the trust of Singaporean who give them power which has been “misused” to enrich themselves and to suck up foreign workers.
Shocker.
The GE will be in March 2009. This will be a real shocker. Please read:
http://amortal.wordpress.com/2009/02/25/issues-for-flash-ge2009/
Shocker.
Also read the analysis here:
http://amortal.wordpress.com/2009/02/20/why-the-flash-ge2009-is-in-march/
James Lopez
Question:
why there is one group of citizens who always support oneside and not the other?
why the majority cannot be reached or could not come to the same conclusion?
thus question decides the outcome.
sucker
how about around june july after they have disbursed the 2nd part of their carrots to us?
i remembered that for last year, they gave out the carrots in march n october, but this year it’s earlier in july
so there u have it, my guess
Peter Tan K K
34) James Lopez on February 25th, 2009 6.36 pm
I know why. It will be very hard if not impossible to change mindsets.
I asked an apathetic person why he is like that.
He said, they just don’t want to talk , think or be involved in political discussion. They just dont want, like or prefer or choose to.
I attribute apatheticism (spelling) to this kind of mentality.
Nothing wrong. A person should have the freedom to choose.
They choose to remain apathetic because they simple do not like anything to do with it.
Overseas, people in general are less like this.
I attribute this to the age of a nation. Although TW is not that old also.
Unbeknownst to apatheticos, you have a duty to be involved as a democratic citizen. In this respect, many of these have failed in their duty. They also have not fully understood that a system does not run on its own. they also do not understand that being indifferent to social issues is anti-social in a way for ignoring the plight of the less fortunate, or disadvantaged in society. These need a voice.
So, time will change. But not anytime soon. :(
Yup Kian Beng
I feel this blogger’s comments match mine :
http://amortal.wordpress.com/2009/02/25/issues-for-flash-ge2009/
so, i shall not re-invent the wheels.
opposition must work harder. Time is running out. Meet your people now.
LIfeobzervr
Add one more to the list… FYI, AMK GRC Nee Soon South Zone 4 (recall the herb garden destruction, the rats issue and the fenced up New Year celebration) will be getting….. guess what… Lift Upgrading!!! Such timely announcement :)
The Joker
My HDB flat just got repainted and re-roofed…as well as a change in landscrape gardening along the road…Yes I can smell GE in the air…
SZ
Yes yes…and due to these carrot, people will vote and the cycle will repeat itself
jane
Traditionally, most GEs were held during “raining season” ( here is SG it means more raining days ) :D
….so that public have to stand in the muddy football field if they choose to go and listen the speeches of Opposition Parties. But for those who support PAP , no need to go to that places and just stay home , drink coke , eat popcorn and watch CNA which will cover the full story of PAP rally. :))))
Pay and Pray
there has been several more cases of aedes mosquito found in residential areas. a resident was attacked by dengue I heard. Myself, was attacked by aedes.
LUP
many of my residential area flats are all target to complete LUP by end of 2009.
;) ;)
GOODBYE VIV
One minister who had recently spoken against internet anonymity wil be dropped. hint: he came in 2001 ge..
Jimmy Armfield
Having an election this year would be like aiming a gun at your foot and actually firing it off! I don’t think the ruling party is that daft to do something so blatantly suicidal. The people are upset and angry after all the bad news, and if the GE was held today, they’re going to get their arses flogged without mercy by the electorate. Bloody hell, they might even lose the GRC that has that worker dormitory!
JD
The picture is fair. PAP is the best scorer in the election followed by WP. One big picture of PAP and smaller picture of WP is fair and reflects reality.
#45) Jimmy Armfield
“Bloody hell, they might even lose the GRC that has that worker dormitory!”
……………………………………………………………
Serangoon Garden, a safe PAP ward, was switched to Aljunied GRC to deny WP a chance to win that shaky GRC while Braddell Heights which almost lost to the SDP when it was led by CST was incorporated into Marine Parade GRC under SM. SG will most likely be moved back to Marine Parade GRC in the next GE.
The PAP is smarter than you.
kingfisher
If the govt calls a snap election this year, does that mean the new mandate will be with effect from 2009, i.e. until 2014 and not 5 years from 2012 (which is when their current term ends)? Anybody knows?
If GE is held in June 2009 then term ends in 2014. But if opening of parliament is delayed after GE for 6 months then term ends in 2015. Delays happened before. The most recent is after the 2006 GE. This is another PAP’s tactic to extend their 5-year term when it suits them.
JW
The PAP government would delay for as long as they can because whether they hold it within these few months, or near the expiry of their current term, a sizeable of PAP is going to be voted out.
They PAP ministers would not want to take the risk of their going to be voted out because it would mean a huge lost in income. Remember, they are in it for the huge salary.
Question
It should not happen,but it happened.
Question
when you check the election website for correct particulars, i notice there is a serial no.
Is it mean that they can know who you voted?
Well, guess they are gonna give the carrot first and people will forget and let bygones be bygones follow by GE and after GE we get to paid back everything plus interest *even more* and the cycle will repeat itself?
hell, i really want this cycle to stop…anymore of this death spiral and SGP may just go poof.