Friday, March 27, 2009 21:16
Cabinet changes – what does it mean for next General Elections?
In Main Stories, Top Story • 3,008 views • 45 Comments
Tan Kian Hwee
There have been many cabinet reshuffles in the PAP government’s history. The most recent one announced on 26 March 2009, coming just up to two years before the next general election is due, gives away some telltale signs of the election permutations that could pan out.
Pasir-Ris Punggol GRC
One PAP man, who had long been anticipated to become deputy prime minister (DPM), has finally been made one.
When then-RAdm Teo Chee Hean entered politics in the 1992 by-election, observers predicted that he would be DPM, along with Mr George Yeo, by the time Mr Lee Hsien Loong took office as Prime Minister.
That didn’t immediately happen, though, for after PM Lee was sworn-in, two DPMs who were older than him were already in place, one – Mr Wong Kan Seng – being incumbent.
The part about Mr Yeo becoming DPM did not happen, nor is DPM Teo likely to take over as prime minister, for he is merely two years younger than PM Lee.
In other words, this is the farthest DPM Teo will go in the Cabinet.
With Mr Teo’s appointment as DPM, Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC becomes a tougher “nut” to crack. Likewise, chances are he may meet with a stronger “adversary” in the next elections.
The PAP team in Pasir Ris-Punggol met a contest from a team from the SDA in the 2006 GE but there are indications that it would face a WP team the next time round.
East Coast GRC
Chances are now high that Prof S. Jayakumar will retire from politics in the next election. When the late Mr S. Rajaratnam became the first Senior Minister of the country in 1985, he retired at the next GE in 1988. As observers may discern, unless one is a former prime minister, he does not hold the SM position for more than an election term.
While the PAP cabinet is perceived to be bloated, the PAP is still wary of setting tongues wagging by having two SMs in a long-term period. Also, SM Jayakumar was relieved of his law minister portfolio in 2008. Therefore, even as SM Jayakumar leaves the Cabinet, SM Goh Chok Tong is likely to remain.
Another very likely exit in the same East Coast GRC that SM Jayakumar helms is Mr Abdullah Tarmugi, as he is one of the few PAP MPs in his 60s – a threshold at which PAP MPs are often retired.
Hence, the new leader for the PAP’s East Coast GRC team in the next GE can only be Mr Raymond Lim, the current Minister for Transport. Should the WP return to this GRC since in the next elections, it will face a new PAP anchorman.
Jalan Besar GRC and Hong Kah GRC
Another indicator of a political retirement is when a full minister steps down to become a backbencher. Normally, this is to allow him to complete his term as MP before a new PAP candidate is fielded in his place in the subsequent GE.
With that, Dr Lee Boon Yang, along with Mr Yeo Cheow Tong in Hong Kah GRC who stepped down as minister not long after the 2006 GE, are not likely to run for elections again.
Given that there is another Cabinet minister in Jalan Besar GRC – Yaacob Ibrahim – he is likeliest to be the one to replace Dr Lee as leader of the PAP team there. As Jalan Besar is a regular “turf” of the National Solidarity Party (NSP) – which contested under the SDA banner in the 2001 and 2006 GE – they are likely to face a now-independent NSP challenge in the next round.
Chua Chu Kang SMC
Now that Mr Gan Kim Yong, the SMC’s MP, is a full minister and with the absence of a full minister to helm Hong Kah GRC, one of Singapore’s longest-surviving SMCs may well be absorbed into a GRC.
In any case, Chua Chu Kang SMC is nearly surrounded by Hong Kah GRC, according to the electoral boundaries map, and such an occurrence would appear rather “natural”. Therefore, if former NCMP Steve Chia of the NSP is planning to return to the SMC for a third time, he may well need to develop a contingency plan.
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC
As with SM Jayakumar, DPM Wong’s tenure as DPM is not likely to be much longer in lieu of his age and his most probable successor – Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam.
However, this is probably going to take place only after the next election.
In the meantime, the GRC is likely to continue housing two Cabinet ministers – the other being education minister Dr Ng Eng Hen. This is especially so when Potong Pasir opposition MP, Mr Chiam See Tong of the SDA, has publicly announced that he will be leaving the seat he has held for six election terms to enter the fray in this GRC with a team.
Jurong GRC
One surprise retirement by the next election could be Mr Lim Boon Heng’s, who stepped down as NTUC secretary-general in 2006 in favour of Mr Lim Swee Say and currently holds no other portfolios apart from being a minister in the Prime Minister’s Office.
If that happens, the likely DPM candidate in the same GRC – Mr Tharman, as mentioned earlier – is poised to replace him as the PAP team’s anchorman. Jurong GRC was not contested in 2006 and in the 2001 elections, a Singapore Democratic Party team garnered only 20% of the votes.
It is another “tough nut” GRC to crack.
Nee Soon Central SMC
Another PAP MP who is in his 60s is Mr Ong Ah Heng. If he does quit politics, the SMC, also one of Singapore’s longest-surviving single wards, is likely to be absorbed into a neighbouring GRC.
The ward was captured by the SDP in the 1991 GE but Mr Ong, with his skills with the grassroots, defeated the opposition incumbent by 60% to 40% in 1997. While Mr Ong increased his margin to nearly 80% against another SDP candidate in 2001, an unknown and new candidate from the Workers’ Party slashed it by 15% in 2006.
This shows that the SMC has always been a potential hotbed for the PAP.
Yio Chu Kang SMC
Given the unfortunate incident involving the PAP incumbent Mr Seng Han Thong, there is a chance that he will not be seeking another term.
The SMC may be reabsorbed into Ang Mo Kio GRC, although chances put this as less likely to occur because the single ward is perceived by the PAP to be sound enough to “stand on its own feet” with any veteran PAP MP parachuted into it.
Aljunied GRC
Mrs Lim Hwee Hua, an MP of Aljunied GRC, has been appointed to the Cabinet and becomes the first female full minister.
Effectively, this increases the stakes of a second Aljunied GRC battle when the PAP meets its opposing WP team, expected to be led once again by another key woman politician – WP’s chairman Ms Sylvia Lim, whose stature has, like Mrs Lim, also since increased with her NCMP stint.
The GRC is presently anchored by another more experienced minister, Mr George Yeo.
The other to watch is whether Mr Zainul Abidin Mohamed Rasheed, a strong grassroots man capable of winning the Malay swing voters, would also call it quits after his post of Northeast CDC mayor was assigned to Mr Teo Ser Luck.
Mr Zainul Abidin is past 60 and ministers of state are normally retired younger but before an election.
Tampines GRC and Sembawang GRC
Yet another surprise retirement could be Mr Mah Bow Tan’s, who currently holds the position of national development minister. This is because Mr Mah is one of the oldest and longest-serving PAP minister in the cabinet.
Should that happen in the next GE, the only GRC with two cabinet ministers – save for the tough battlegrounds of Bishan Toa-Payoh GRC and Aljunied GRC – is Sembawang GRC.
In this hypothesis, law minister Mr K Shanmugam could be shifted to helm the PAP Tampines GRC team.
The PAP team’s leader in Sembawang, Mr Khaw Boon Wan, is unlikely to move, for he had already been shifted once – from Tanjong Pagar GRC – and he has shown himself capable of helming a GRC on his own in the 2006 election.
In conclusion, the above possible ministerial retirements are not to be unexpected and cannot be ruled out, for with the latest appointments, the government cabinet has further bloated from 18 to 21 ministers.
——–
Tan Kian Hwee also blogs at: tankianhwee.wordpress.com.
Headline picture from yawningbread.
———-
Related posts:
45 Comments
Yamasam
Opposition will not change
Whatever the minister changes, whatever the electoral boundary or PAP candidate changes, some things will not change – ie the opposition. It will remain as before or even become weaker.
The electorate will also not change.
As a result, I predict another 50 % ( or even more) walkovers, 66% mandate (or even more) and 98 % seats (or even 100 %) for the PAP at the next election.
Despite the anti PAP mood on the Internet and despite even if there are huge opposition election rallies.
David
Lim Hwee Hwa the poor winner in Aljunied GRC got promoted? I am surprised.
Opposition will not change
#3 David,
Why you surprised? Even lose election before can also be minister. Do you know that Mah Bow TAn lost to Chiam See Tong in 1984 election in Potong Pasir? At the next election Mah won in another ward and became Minister!.
Mah went on to become an outstanding minister in charge of HDB. The value (price) of HDB rise tremendously!
prettyplace
Good observation David….
For Aljunied GRC, i think they want to strenghten it with an additional Minister lah…best way to get the female voters…you will soon see M/s Lim running around doing wonders for woman’s cause.
I have another point to make…there was another article about having 20,000 foreingers being Singaporeans…..(not sure if they are PRs or citizens, please correct me)
If they are made Singapore citizens..then we all don’t need to worry..or worry..because that alone will make the PAP win….
ffds
yeah lor lose in potong pasir then never continue in the same ward.
then go to another ward then also become minister.
not so good but possible.
maybe like those superstar singing contest.
knock out first then come back in fan shen sai
then win champion
more drama
ffds
just change every place to smc.
if do not do so.
even if a grc can win by 99.9999% margin also no face.
Retiree
Wow, good intelligence for opposition. Hope that it will be expanded and put to good use.
Wonder who will be the replacements for Chiam & Low. If both are defeated, the the house will be 100% PAP – it may well be so for the coming GE.
Then all the opposition will also be retirees without any office.
fdgbf
if pap really win every seat what will happen?
will it be better or worse for singapore?
It will be June 09
If change is what some of the people wants,
then is this not change?
Some of these would be happy i think and no need ask for change liao.
Speaking for myself.
change change change! yeah! its changed already. ha ha ha
Wayang
I wonder if my idol Ms Wee Leng would stand for election ?
I am a fan of her articles she sometimes get to write in the MSM.
Such talent should not go to waste . I mean should become our minster for success.
Dan
Whatever changes to the GRCs, new or old MPs shd not have the tthe “bao chiak” mentality (walkover or not). It’s abt itme they do some hard work, get off their high horses and remember their accountability to their constituents, whether at meet the people sessions or just seeking feedback. This is a transactional government, high pay comes with high expectaions. Don’t give me the crap abt external factors, beyond our control. With this tacit mercenary agreement, I demand more than golden years. If you can’t deliver, you are no better than a snake oil seller. Stop making excuses and get things done.
iliveinuk
well you forgot about holland bukit timah. 2 Heavyweight ministers. I reckon that Dr Vivian who is well loved by most people will be transferred to a contested GRC to anchor it.
Serangoon Resident
Mrs. Lim is a good MP , humble and down to earth unlike some stuck up PAP MPs .
T
/// Yet another surprise retirement could be Mr Mah Bow Tan’s, who currently holds the position of national development minister. This is because Mr Mah is one of the oldest and longest-serving PAP minister in the cabinet. ///
Yes, I can still recall vividly the scene. Mah Bow Tan and Ng Pock Too were both knocked out in the GE. I think Mah by Chiam See Tong (if I remember correctly). A straight As student knocked out by Chiam with his Bs and Cs. The newspapers’ front-page headline in the early edition was:
“Mah Bows Out; Pock Too Too”
I thought is was a fantastically witty and pithy headline.
JBJ asked in parliament why the government interfered and recalled the newspapers. Yatiman Yusof stood up and, sprouting brimstone and fire, angrily and arrogantly demanded proof from JBJ about his accusation or apologize. JBJ calmly took out his copy and show it to Yatiman. Yatiman was speechless – the scene was priceless. Somehow, JBJ managed to get hold of a copy of the early edition, while the rest were recalled and destroyed.
Two supposedly strong PAP candidates with impeccable exam results were knocked out by opposition candidates with so-so results. After this, the GRC was invented and implemented. Did someone say the GRC was to ensure representation of minority races?
So what about Teo Ho Pin and Br. Panjang SMC?
The article is merely a speculative one…Anyway all SMCs are surrounded by larger GRCs and in theory all SMCs “may well be absorbed into a GRC”.
Spirit-centred
To create a level playing field, we should do away with SMCs and redrawn the electoral boundaries into 16 GRCs. All parties battle it out as a team. Time have change, current crisis need teamwork to solve, no man can go alone. Afterall with SMCs around, we don’t see much improvement in results for the opposition. So its a win all or lost all game. I think its fair.
David
I hope all the talks that nothing will change in Singapore or oppositions will not win the majority votes are merely jest.
As an educated and net savvy person, I think many of us should have known the systems here pretty well that this country is ruled by greed and non compassion towards its people. Rules and policies are constantly change and implemented to take away Singaporean basic rights to enhance pap rights and tighten their control over us. If our only power over them comes only once in 5 years, do we still want to waste it away like a coward? Change comes through the people of Singapore and not merely reshulffing of the cabinet within the ruling party.
We have to ask ouselves, do we sincerely want to have change in Singapore so that Singaporeans will benefit with check and balances or do we want to remain chained to pap and suffer all their craps and shit pouring over us. It has already happened and if Singaporean do not wake up thinking they can still live in complacency subjected furthering suffering, I have nothing to say but your children will remain slave to the systems and JB nursing is waiting when your day is due. Singapore will have no future.
Are you as game as me for change or you still thinking what goodies you might get on election day?
tew ah seow
It is no point talking about GRC and SMC and PaP dominates the parliament. The root of the cause is Singaporeans still prefer Pap and have doubt on the oppositions. If majority of Singaporeans unite and give oppositions a chance, then we will see political tsunami happening, and reform and change will happen like what Obama said. Unfortunately, this won’t happen in the short term, you can’t blame the govt/pap, you should blame the people.
Silenced Lamb sings the Sound of Silence
I am a fan of the honorable Mah.
I hope to see him in a SMC in the coming election.
Some say, it will be in june. I say i no no.
I am also a fan of Lim Boon Heng.
I too, hope to see him in a SMC.
Likewise, I am a fan of Lim Swee Say.
ditto.
I like to express my respect for them, our heroes.
With the Lim as the 1st lady minister, I suspect another lady will be becoming one soon. Suspect is the keyword. Dun take it seriously.
Why is there a need for Alternativity when the people who are responsible HAVE SPOKEN.
australia very nice.
paul
#19
David,
I attended as many opposition rallies during the 2006 GE as was physically possible. At the Yio Chu Kang WP rally, I was convinced that Singapore’s electorate had indeed changed and would have at least handed Aljunied GRC to the WP.
I was so wrong.
A year ago, I was talking with a friend and her son. They happen to be residents of Potong Pasir. I asked her what she thought of Chiam See Tong. She replied that she was happy with the way things were run in PP. I then asked her 16 year old son whom he would vote for if he had the chance to. His reply? The PAP. I asked him to explain. His answer? The PAP will clean up the Kallang river, build more bicycle tracks, provide other facilities for the residents etc.
The point I am trying to make is if Singaporeans in general are susceptible to those types of “soft bribes” then how will we ever get an opposition voted into power let alone win more than two SMCs?
Don’t get me wrong. I am not saying that the 16 year old son is representative of Singaporean voters in general.
Yes, no one can deny that a lot of Singaporeans are internet savvy and educated. I just hope that a lot of those Singaporeans will start thinking about how much power we want to hand the PAP at the next elections given all the unpleasant issues that we have had to deal with at their hands these last few years.
laworder
We don’t need three Deputy PMs to help LHL run Singapore. singapore is not as big as the US. if we really need 3 DPMs, then the Obama administration will need 3000 vice-presidents to help him run the country. Stop wasting tax money to pay millions of SGD for 3 DPMs to do nothing spectacular except to lose money for Singapore.
snk
#13,
Dr. Vivian well loved ??!! Pui Pui.. He’s the one who make sarcastic remarks when people ask for a S$30 increase for Public Assistance recipients.
He himself (& all the MIW)… million dollar salary!!!
Pui Pui !!!!
vapour
give it time and you will see the PAP is lacking new blood, people are starting to avoid it and you can only recycle so much and then its a dead end………..the laws of cause and effect and its natural order of things.
Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall
I am a fan of Vivian. Nice name, by the way.
I hope to see him lead a SMC to run for election.
I hope to vote for him.
Invisible t-shirt
Wow, sg, a small city that itself is the country, now with 3 DPMs and 1 PM.
very good good wor.
You speak of many SMCs being absorbed into GRCs. But keep in mind that there needs to be a minimum number of SMCs, which means that some new SMCs will have to be carved out. Any take on where these could be?
Loyola
Gerald,
Maybe Ayer Rajah SMC might be resurrected. Or they could very well create one in the north, perhaps call it Seletar SMC, taking in the private estates along Yio Chu Kang Road and a bit of Buangkok.
Andrew Loh
Gerald,
In the west. Don’t be surprised if two or three new SMCs appear there.
Loyola
Andrew,
Perhaps nearer to Tuas/Pioneer eh. That might be plausible..
Gerald / Ravi,
The article singles out only primarily two SMCs that will be absorbed, not a lot and that is the average number of SMCs that “vanish” every election.
2001 – Bukit Gombak, Kampong Glam and Boon Lay were absorbed
2006 – Ayer Rajah and Bukit Timah were absorbed
While it is speculative, the ones absorbed usually have been around longer. Out of the 5, 3 were due to the incumbent’s retirement – both cases in 2006.
Regards
ah siao
what my view is not how the mp of any party perform in thier grc or even smc even a oppsition member win a seat in a ward the ruling don even helping them or even clean up the Kallang river, build more bicycle tracks, provide other facilities for the residents etc. i know it ture that the ruling party o so came with a long way and a hard time . But it is really care for the singaporean ??? even a oppsition win a ward, and the pap don really care for that oppstion ward ?? i think this is a wrong thinking for the ruling party . i belive staying in oppsition ward resident o so singaporean y they being treat diff from pap ward ?? is not the oppsition mp don want to bulid lift stop at every floor is beyond the oppsiton mp control. i means pls be gentleman course EVERY SINGAPOREAN COUNTS
...
AT THE RATE,THE ELECTION COMMISSION IS GOING,MIGHT AS WELL MAKE SINGAPORE ITSELF 1 BIG GRC
tokselehon
For me,the political tsunami will only come after the demise of lky.
WHY?
BECOS,
He is the man, we need to watch, becos everything that come and go has got him done.He is the man, the man with the real political watch.
When he is alive, no opposition can win as many or more Parliamentary seats in Singapore.Today, it is there for you to know that nothing would give many more seats to Opposotion.
I am not scaring or make Opposition loose confident of winning, but frankly the status quo would not change, unless and until the demise of lky.
THAT’S THE TRUTH.
SO WHAT MUST BE DONE?NOTHING BUT THE WILL OF LIFE WOULD PREVAIL.
I have the confident that the Opposition would only be stronger, get carried and be fully supported by the Great Singaporeans, only after the demise of lky.
The poliitical floodgate shall be over crowded by many Great Singapore who prefer to join the Opposition.
THAT’S THE WILL OF LIFE BUT NOT THE POLITICAL WILL OF PAP OR OPPOSITION!
Look at today’s pap, what happen?The happenings around them prove that pap is no longer the Party for Singaporeans.A Party which has lost touch with the Great Singaporeans, only to wait and see that the time would come for a big change after the demise of lky.
And look at the Opposition, what happen?The happenings around them prove that Opposition is seems to be weaken but not really.Opposition has garnered local constituents’ support, syrely but slowly, only to wait and see that the time for ‘political bubble burst’ would come for a big change after the demise of lky.
My opinion but not perception is for you guys to take a look at what going to happen next after lky’s demise.
Be steady Opposition, and relax, enjoy on what you guys in the Opposition do for now.Take it easy.
Have a good day.
#8) Retiree
‘If both are defeated, the the house will be 100% PAP – it may well be so for the coming GE.’
#9) fdgbf
‘ if pap really win every seat what will happen?
will it be better or worse for singapore?’
…………………………………………………..
Don’t worry. PAP will want to preserve these two well-behaved opposition MPs who are the showpieces for the PAP’s version of democracy. They are only afraid of more ‘Chees’ & ‘JBJs’ getting into parliament.
As LHL had mentioned in the 2006 GE if more than 10 opposition MPs get into parliament he would fix them up and get rid ot them so that he can concentrate on running the country.
insider65
There is never a more opportune time than this current period of turmoil.The alternative parties should engage the people more and encourage them to join the alternative parties.Are they doing this?
When was the last time any of the parties had a forum?I only remember the Reform Party most recently and also the Singapore Democratic Party.
The incumbent alternative parties, the Singapore Democratic Alliance and the Worker’s Party have gone all quiet with regards to public talks, forums or recruitment drives.The two ‘approved’ candidates can only operate within the SMC unfortunately.
Just go and visit them personally and you will understand that they have barely anybody left from the last general elections.There has been infighting, splits, defections, etc.The PAP knows this.They can go to the polls with their eyes closed.
Having met Grassroots personnel over the weekend, it seems that an impending election will be called within the next two quarters latest.Many walkabouts have taken place over the past weekend and more are done so during the week by Resident’s Committee.I know so as my neighbors and friends are in the Resident’s Committees and Grassroots.And my neighborhood MP visited my colleague’s doorstep for the first time in 2 decades.
I am studying these groups and their respective leaderships.I have seen wet market stall operators, taxi drivers, food vendors, newspaper distributors, medical doctors, lawyers, teachers, real estate and insurance agents heading different committees and sub-committees.Their networking is immense.But their intentions are questionable.But they have the numbers.As I have mentioned before, the youth are clearly under represented.The Alternative parties should engage Singaporeans below the ages of 50 and they would have won half the battle.It is this under 50 age group that is most likely less favorable to the PAP mandate.
Majority of Singaporeans relate to the PAP out of their own selfish needs.They think of themselves only and not for the greater nation.Probably because they don’t identify with Singapore as a country anymore.Extremely sad when you see your kids growing up in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s singing the national day songs patriotically.Singapore as a country is finished.It is turning into a hotel.Can this rot be reversed?
It all depends on the Opposition or Alternative parties.They have to work together and present a united front and be actively recruiting quality.Singapore desperately needs new leadership in the mold of the first generation PAP leaders.Maybe a new party should step up to replace the WP and SDA.Could Reform Party be the savior?
Spinistem
35) tokselehon on March 29th, 2009 9.10 pm
Exactly. I am a supporter of dan tui.
I also do not see PAP losing in the next 2 elections.
The fact is the people have spoken.
They accept. Acceptance comes in many forms, if you understand what that can mean.
in my view, a small pocket of singaporeans may want change. But the fact remains, they are not Convinced enough this is what they want.
Yes, in a democracy, whatever is the status quo, the people are responsible, ultimately. 1 single opinion or voice or view is not sufficient to make a change. It is a collective effort.
This is prolly the most unique country on earth where the system is based on democracy.
Finally, Yeo Cheow Tong will be finished as a politician!
tokselehon
In deed 36)Edward, 37)insider65 and 38)Spinistem have the answers if not all, to what I mean at post 35)
Surely everyone must know that.
Political survival for the Opposition would only takes place after the demise of lky, and that’s for sure.Lky can not deny and defy that facts.
Have a good day bros and sis in politics.
George Bush
<>
Bullshit lah. When LHL became PM in Aug 04 , he appointed Jayakumar as the DPM, along with INCUMBENT Tony Tan. It was only when Tony stepped down a year later than WKS became DPM.
Writer should get their facts right. Tsk tsk.
Bush
Not sure why TOC opted to moderate my point but I repeat – the writer’s point that “That didn’t immediately happen, though, for after PM Lee was sworn-in, two DPMs who were older than him were already in place, one – Mr Wong Kan Seng – being incumbent” is factually wrong!
LHL was the one who appointed Jaya as DPM in aug 04 when he became PM, and a year later, appointed WKS as DPM when Tony stepped down.
Seng Yi
“in my view, a small pocket of singaporeans may want change. But the fact remains, they are not Convinced enough this is what they want.”
Is it ? try Pavlov’s Dog. sometimes a place is sick bcos stick is being used to instil fear.
Dollars and Cents
I wonder how much the wage bill increased since we have an additional SM and Minister, PMO to pay now
creducator
So much have been said, but one point that hit me is what (33) ah siao said.
Does the ruling party really care for ALL s’poreans?
I am always puzzled by how badly the ruling party treated s’poreans staying in the opposition wards, who also pay taxes which contributed to the ruling party’s salaries. Why should s’poreans be deprived of their rights just because they are living in the opposition wards? Can these s’poreans be exempted from paying taxes then?
Considering the amount of crap Teo Ho Pin is getting for all the boo boo he’s making, either Bukit Panjang SMC be absorbed into a GRC or Teo, if he remains an MP, may be switched into a GRC.