Wednesday, March 4, 2009 21:18
GIC had bought ‘too early’
In Quotes • 996 views • 53 Comments
THE portfolio of Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC has fallen about 25 per cent from its peak due to the financial crisis, but it can weather the storm for 10 years if necessary, said Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew.
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53 Comments
Ah Siao
Gambling is a Curse forever
The quiet is finally broken and the new hope after the lighting strike on the merlion head as a wake up call, is the 24 hrs casinos in the IR. – gambling can never be the answer to a nation’s economic woes and it shows clearly the dry up of ideas from the first division team.
Well the golden era has just melted away and repercussions will take centre stage henceforth unless the casino component of the IRs is stopped and and deleted.
If not, just watch and see the onset of more suffering to families and moral degradation to a once emerging tiger.
Nathane Chen Shui Lian
I would like to take this opportunity to thank the dear kind people of singapore for their contribution to the nation’s wealth for making it what it is today. The people is the greatest.
Bologna Tempestini
The reserves has been accumulated over the decades thanks to contributions by the people and much has been been invested already. already means already.
alky
They should never have gone into such investments in the first place when the situation was still so chaotic in the States. If it was such a good deal why would the banks be selling their shares to foreign investors instead of their own people?
And have they never heard of Enron or WorldCom? These were supposedly solid U.S. companies too but where are these companies now?
I do not think the banks they invested in will still be around in 10 to 20 years time. Most likely their good assets will be sold off and whatever scraps is left will be GIC’s souvenirs to keep.
worldcrass
the old man is outdated and should leave young singaporeans manage the country.
the country is going down because of him now. no one dare to speak up.
let his son decide whether to have him stand for the next election? what rubbish. ask any singaporeans, and i am sure its an overwhelmingly NO!
Fribbles
I’m not sure which sane investor will support this decision, but definitely not a part of the citizens.
Daniel
Please lah, who is this old man trying to fool ? Why feed us percentage and let us guess how much our reserves originally have based on the loss ?
Our reserves last only as long as the old man, doesn’t it ? When the old man says we have that much of reserves, who dare to say he’s wrong ? But when the old man gone, the reserves gone together with him, but then who says he’s right in the first place ?
Yogi Bear
“How could we have known this was the extent of the damage?” Lee Kuan Yew 4 March 2009
Lee Kuan Yew,
To the contrary, how could you NOT have known? Has Nouriel Roubini not warned about the collapse? Did Jim Rogers not tell you exactly why you should not have done it? (http://www.reuters.com/article/fundsFundsNews/idUSSIN3390620080305). Has Paul Krugman, winner of the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics, not given you a stinging appraisal about Singapore’s economic reality? (http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/myth.html)
Well, to Singapore’s detriment, they are ALL right on the money. In the midst of the global turmoils, there is inevitability but there are also major mistakes. Instead of excuses, I want to see ACCOUNTABILITY.
SZ
That’s the closest to “we make a mistake” that will come out from them…
in the end, it will be the same old style which goes along ” it is not a mistake and we can last it out”
moreover, like what so many people has pointed out now and in the past, it is easier to say that, but what if those companies that they have shares in went down the gutters? don’t think we can retrieve a single cent in their long term investment time frame.
SZ
Charles Darwin says “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”
and are our dear MIW adaptable to change?
Can he see ?
When he was not able to see the last few months to the last one two years,
can we believe he could see ten years from now ?
Singaporeans will and shall see one invariable event,
and that is, Singaporeans will witness him going home for good.
Now is the time for him to say whatever he wants for he is hardly required to answer to anything that happens five years down the road.
However, he must ensure his integrity and speak responsibly for a good posterity.
charis
Hindsight is 20/20.
Poor Undergrad
What has happened has already happened.
Life and World is too dynamic. Why not think of ways of what can be done with what we have got?
Crabtalk
great! very good of him to admit there was
a bad judgement here.
Let those among u that don’t mistakes cast
the first stone!
snaker
#15, Mr. Crab…
Ah, here’s the difference. The rest of us didn’t claim that we’re the A-team that can forsee the future. And because of their claims, they draw obscene amount of salary funded by us, the tax-payers
Now they can’t do the job, I’ll be the 1st one to spit at them (figuratively)…
last 10 years.
Is he saying that our reserves will only last 10 years? Sounds like it!
RookieLim
#15, Mr. Crab…The worst thing is these so call A-team that draws super scale pay are merely kissing-ass minions that do not have the guts to speak their minds even when they see things that are terminally wrong. To prove my point, can you name me who can takeover as the next PM/leader in this cabinet? They may claim to have the brains. But, do they have the heart?
Incorrigible Gambler
“Trust me, please give me one more chance, I promise I will win it all back for you .. er…. in ten years time … or twenty years ….. or may be thirty years …. errrrrooooorrr…. it was an error … we bought too early and we sold too late lah.”
incorrigible gambler.
Daniel
“great! very good of him to admit there was
a bad judgement here.
Let those among u that don’t mistakes cast
the first stone!”
Did you even read the full article ? Did he ever admit mistake ? He only say that they went too early doesn’t imply he is admitting any mistake, let’s alone honest mistake. There is no apology, no sorry, Only what to do, it’s happened.
In defence, he even say that
“‘We scaled it down about 10, 15 per cent, which gave us a lot of cash … but if we hadn’t gone into banks and just held onto the shares, that would have gone down also,’ he said.:
So what admittance of mistake people are talking about ?
Daniel
So what if he says that they went too early, what can be done to bring him to accountability anyway ? Any MP, Opposition party to raise the issue ? Anyone….
That’s say it all. Ok… let’s move on as usual….
stone
How much is the actual loss? Depends on how much is GIC assets.
If assets total $200 billion, the loss is $50 b.
If $300 billion, the loss is $75 b.
If $400 billion, the loss is $100 b.
So we are looking at huge losses, for a fund that is supposed to be investing our CPF contributions in safe investments.
no name
There’s goes our CPF and you will see them delaying our retirement age…
Oops there is no retirement age in Singapore….
Alex the peasant boy
I think the main downfall of Singapore is WE are all afraid to speak up against LKY. No doubt, he & his team built Singapore from a muddy fishing village to a modern cosmopolitan within a few decades & I salute him for that; however, his methods of governing Singapore are way pass the passé stage. He should just move on & take up Racquet or something & take it easy with life.
I am just curious on why he’s still holding onto power, perhaps, he’s just a passionate guy that wanna see Singapore become the next super power in SEA or maybe it’s cos his son just aint cut out to be PM material; I suspect the latter. I know the PM position is a hard act to follow but I thought maybe with a few years’ experience, he could fill it. Now after that ‘few years’, he is still looking like a headless chicken & whenever there’s a screw up, either he just keep quiet or give us some ridiculous excuses!! People might argue that being a PM is no cruise on the lake, but he does have many so-called capable scholars to help him out, right? Or are they also too afraid to speak up & tell him the truth? Afraid that they will lose their highly-paid-do-nothing jobs or get slapped?
I am just afraid that if LHL steps down, there might not be many Ronald MacDonalds to fill those shoes. I believe there are many people with the right education to fill the post, but how many of them will put us peasants as his priority? These people are just too high in their Ivory Tower to know how much we are struggling to make ends meet everyday.
Sigh…… I am losing hope everyday whenever I see that bunch of idiots in Parliament talking & talking. Maybe they should just walk around the heartland, without those grass root leaders or prior notice, & see how many elderly people are picking coke cans & carton boxes.
HB Lim
6) worldcrass on March 4th, 2009 10.41 pm the old man is outdated and should leave young singaporeans manage the country.
No ! It is the younger A-Team and civil servants, and Temasek that are causing the problems, that why he is finding all sort of reasons the last few months to support them.
Cravat
depends on what whether 25% based on 31 Mar 2008 or 25% based on amount of money originally pumped in to GIC
if it is the latter, just pray.
SIMPLE
1) MM said that GIC had bought ‘too early’ into global banks such as Citigroup and UBS , which were both hammered by toxic assets.
As chairman of GIC, he must be the ONE who made the decision for such huge sums involved and must own up personally. No passing the buck down the chain of command. Similarly for his daughter-in-law who was the CEO of Temasek. Looks like they both share the same investment strategy between them.
2) Not only is the timing too early which implies the declining stock market. But both of them overlooked the problems residing within these FIs which is a more major reason for the drop in their share prices. Yet MM sits in the internatinal advisory board of Citibank.
3) MM said that GIC’s losses is 25% of fthe PEAK. GIC has been in the business for over 30 years and have enjoyed many cycles of bull markets. Its peak must be very much higher than the value one year ago. This statement adds credence to the Finance Minister of State’s slip of tongue of a loss of 41%. The old man is sneeky and not honest but people are no fools. Why is he so shy to say 41% if it is not that the losses are serious?
4) The FATHER now admits to a mistake (for being hasty). But his SON-BOSS at ASEAN a few days ago admitted to no fault and still maintained the decision was good as long term investments. Which version is correct. Are they therefore in loggerhead on accountability.
elections2009
27) SIMPLE,
Well said. Totally agree with your point on LKY not being sincere. He would have earned himself more respect rather than resorting to hide-n-seek tactic to evade the real truth, which will surely surface in no time.
Anyway, the unholy trinity of him, his son and the daughter-in-law deserve each other.
AhKao
Last time he said all those are “unrealized losses” and we gotta think long term.
But with the latest buyout of Citibank and losing our preferential shares for normal ones, haven’t the losses now been realized?
Tew N S
I think MM Lee or Ho Ching they are not genius or elite. They can’t predict the market. He ever said you pay them top dollars, you peg their salary to MNC salary, they will perform but in this case, they perform badly. And now they blame world economic crisis. No one is clever in the cabinet, if you stop investing for this1 year or so, we would have not lost perhaps $200 billion of our reserves.
keng
#24 Alex the peasant boy
FYI, he and his team didn’t build SG from a muddy fishing village. SG could probably have been managed quite well by the British had WW2 not arrived.
Peter Lim
I do not think UBS, CITI, BOA they invested in will still be around in 10 years time. Most likely their good assets will be sold off and whatever scraps is left will be GIC’s souvenirs to keep. This is the lesson I learn from CLOB shares (Malaysia shares traded in Singapore)
crownies
hi,
i just saw the CNA show on lee press-like kinda conference.
I notice several questions came from local bank reps and 1 came from national library guy.
wow, even library showed interest wor. must be very interesting hor.
did they not know about the banks or product they invested? i mean the toxic products involved by the banks.
so, what happens if future investment also later found out got toxic? will this happen again? what is the assurance? so, if invest in commodities, what is there to assure no toxic in that?
questions questions questions….
so, must know what you are investing before you invest? sure?
Andre Leonis
Good year .
got talent waht.
ho very talent what.
why leave?
talent should not leave ?
Plumber
To Ah kao,
no, the losses are still not realised until you sell the shares. As long as you keep the shares and the companies you have invested are stlil around, the losses remained unrealised.
no time for peace, only eternal war
how he know that its 10 yrs? anyhow say.
ON THE FUTURE
‘If we maximise our opportunities in this golden period, in five years we will have a more vibrant cosmopolitan Singapore, not only clean, green and safe, but also a city, fun to work and live in for Singaporeans and for the many foreign professionals and their families.’
(Speech at Tanjong Pagar GRC Orchard Fiesta at Civic Plaza, Ngee Ann City Building, 7 July 2007)
http://www.straitstimes.com/Pioneers+Of+Singapore/Lee+Kuan+Yew/Quotes/Quotes.html
Peter Tan
What MM Lee said on 5 April 2007 – Look at what happen to our asset values now?!
‘You know, the cure for all this talk is really a good dose of incompetent government. You get that alternative and you’ll never put Singapore together again: Humpty Dumpty cannot be put together again…and your asset values will be in peril, your security will be at risk and our women will become maids in other people’s countries, foreign workers.’
(Justifying pay hikes for Singapore ministers, The Straits Times, 5 April 2007)
http://www.straitstimes.com/Pioneers+Of+Singapore/Lee+Kuan+Yew/Quotes/Quotes.html
Peter Tan
What MM Lee said on 5 November 2006 – He should retire graciously now
‘If you ask me, the future is really shining for us…We will survive; this is a red dot, which we can make redder and brighter.’
(On the economy, quoted in The Straits Times, November 5 2006)
http://www.straitstimes.com/Pioneers+Of+Singapore/Lee+Kuan+Yew/Quotes/Quotes.html
SZ
34) Plumber
That’s easily said then done…but how long will it take to break even such a huge amount…we will not know. and you have also forgotten to mention that if the company is nationalized, say bye bye and everything is wipe clean
I Can Honestly Say . . .
is there even a need to lose 25%?
Just because we supposedly outperformed others who performed worse, is that ok?
Wrong is not that wrong when others are more wrong?
Geez.
rfrg
i think confirm investment will win and lose money.
but most important is when investment make a lot of money, did i benefit from it?
i think i did not.
but when investment failed i suffer also.
kingrant
#37-39,
That’s why their talk is cheap becos we’re paying for their crap!
red_dot
Who is he going to bluff?
The world equity market peaked on October 2007.
GIC and TH must count their losses from this date.
Their losses will be at least 50%!!!!
With another major crash coming their ultimate
losses could be as much as 75%.
So they think they are market gurus in investing??
Politicians are the worst investors. They are NUTS
where business is concern. They will be losing
75% of the country’s 40 years savings and they
can just smile as though they lost only 25 cents!!
Keep scoring everyone….they must account and be
responsible for the losses!!!
Nathane Chen Shui Lian
22) stone on March 5th, 2009 10.40 am
How much is the actual loss? Depends on how much is GIC assets.
=============================
i thot that guy said already? I mean based on trust, what he said should be the truth and nothing but the truth so help me right?
tiredsingaporean
44) red_dot on March 6th, 2009 9.30 am
So they think they are market gurus in investing??
Politicians are the worst investors. They are NUTS
where business is concern. They will be losing
75% of the country’s 40 years savings and they
can just smile as though they lost only 25 cents!!
Like that I also want, win I keep all the profits and reaward myself, loss goes to the people of singapore, increase more tax. Hey wake up!!!!!! singaporeans!!!
What will singaporeans reaction be like when they found out that all of their entire cpf life savings are gone? Hey guys, those digits you see in your cpf statments are printed, get the meaning?
Victor
GIC converted their preference share into CITI ordinary shares at USD3.25. CITI closed at USD 1.02 this morning. This translates into a loss of more than 68% of GIC’s investment in CITI.
I am amazed by such a big loss in less than a month.
What are these highly paid people at GIC doing? ####?????
long-term perspective
“I am amazed by such a big loss in less than a month.”
What is there to be amazed about. Anyway, paper loss only lah and still unrealised. Think long long term lah.
As it is so dirt-cheap now, “‘They are in fact well-positioned to buy good quality assets at prices that are ‘attractive from a long-term perspective”.
Victor
#48 Long-term perspective
I believe you are not competent in Accountancy. Companies have accounting reporting period. They need to recognise the loss/profits at each ending accounting period to reflect their current net worth. A loss is loss and don’t tell me its only paper loss.
“so dirt-cheap now”??? Go and buy more now and you will see more losses. The market has not bottom yet. Cheaper can be cheaper tomorrow and the day after.
long-term perspective
49) Victor on March 6th, 2009 5.37 pm
Aiyoh, so serious for what lah. just a joke lah.
in fact, p/l or b/s to me are just a guide. let me tell you something, I go for cash flow lah, sunk costs & other b/s items to me are meaningless unless they represent something which brings me real value (further timely converted cash) in the future and not those dangling in the b/s purely as a fanciful decorative item to boost up an illusionary net worth value. Each figure (though it may be in similar numerical absolutes) in your a/cting report has their own special unique personalities / characteristics, if you know what I mean.
So what do you think of my explanation this time.
Victor
50) long-term perspective on March 6th, 2009 6.00 pm
Haha, you have suddenly become very knowledgeable.
Cheers!
long-term perspective
51) Victor on March 6th, 2009 6.17 pm
Nice to have you around. Unfortunately, we sometimes have to put in a little bit of satire to blunt the effect of some forceful yet important views on our part.
Cheers
Anonymous
Too early? What too early? Should not have done it in the first place.
Here is what Luck Tan says in his Blog:
====================================
What surprises me was MM Lee saying that the GIC and Temasek invested in those banks “too early” [Link]. They invested in those banks more than a year ago. But what is the difference if they had gone in 6 months ago, 3 months ago or even 2 months? They would have lost most of their money anyway given these banks are insolvent. Citigroup stocks have fallen about 50% in the last 5 days. They had many months to discover their mistake and unwind their investments and save taxpayers’ money. But they are unable to admit to making a mistake even today so we have Singaporeans’ money stuck in these banks whose stocks are heading south everyday. It is highly dangerous to leave taxpayers’ money in entities that are not completely transparent and it is even more dangerous when the people running them cannot admit their mistakes, learn their lessons and allow small blunders to turn into catastrophic losses.
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What an idiot.
If this storm last for 10 years, what do you think the asset price will be like?
You are lucky if it can last you 5 years.