From AFP:
In his first television interview, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke predicted that America’s worst recession in decades likely will end this year, and that the economic recovery would gather steam next year.
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The US central bank chief, whose decision to sit down last Wednesday for the rare interview underscored the gravity of the crisis, said much depends on fixing the crisis-hit US banking system.
“We’re working on it. And I do think that we will get it stabilized, and we’ll see the recession coming to an end probably this year,” Bernanke said.
“We’ll see recovery beginning next year. And it will pick up steam over time,” he said.
Asked if the United States had avoided a repeat of the 1930s Great Depression, Bernanke said: “I think we’ve averted that risk.
“I think we’ve gotten past that and now the problem is to get the thing working properly again.”
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Full report here.
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He said “I think, u thought, who confirm?”
Anyway, he is as reliable as former Feds Chairman Alan Greenspan who wrote on WSJ on nine consecutive occasions that the US Recession has hit the trough only to be proven wrong the very next day.
Talk is cheap
what is the track record of forecasts made by Bernanke?
Our dear Alan greenspan also made some shocking forecasts and reported shocking hindsights.
A Forecast, even if based on statistics is still just a forecast and not yet the TRUTH. It is the Truth only in that it is a Forecast.
Well well, i will take what he said with a bagful of salt…people like him has been proven wrong times and times again…talk is cheap
Ben Bernanke also said, “the biggest risk is that we (probably hinting at Obama) don’t have the political will…we don’t have the commitment to solve this problem, and that we let it just continue. In which case, we can’t count on recovery.”
I think Ben was just on a big PR exercise…first he says, “will likey recover this year” then he says, “can’t count on recovery…” Which is the truth?
According to the BBC version of this story, BBC reported that Benarke said US recession isl likely end this year if (a very big if) banks were to start lending.
6) Ravi Philemon on March 16th, 2009 2.59 pm
well, he could be right this time if not, the next time or the time after that.
Probability.
Estimation.
Forecast.
if there is a way to know the future for sure, then there is no need for Forecasting.
talk is cheap. most likely obama asked him to do some PR to show to the american they have voted for the right people into action. In fact, none of them know what they are doing is right or not.
You believe this guy after all that had happened and still happening?
America is indeed a joke – it can still talk a lot and pretend to give good advice
Presume, it is implying that the billions of dollars gain through clever manipulations have bottomed.
Newspapers have reported that many nations have lost billions of dollars, especially from Asia and the Middle East.
If commonsense prevail, the monies should be in US now ?
This is the meaning of intellectuals !
Soon, we could read and heard fiery rhetoric again.
As I remembered someone was saying…’money, money’ !
And the news reported that one of the “ailing financial institution” is paying bonuses” soon.
Want to buy ice ?
That is really what we are now.
Ice melting and Bernake says that greenshoots are sprouting
But we are all melted already……..
Ho ho ho! Well look who’s a talkin’? If it aien’t ben Bankrupt kae? Ha! The recession will end “if he and his band of croonies get banks to start lending again”?
For your sakes people, pray that never happens. Because this current debt alone will take more than 2 generations to clear. And if banks start lending before their old debts are cleared, then there is only but one thing that will happen…
Good ol’ Ben Bernake here will start going back to his favourite hobby of printing yet more notes over the weekend! And guess where that will lead the world to? If singapore is smart, it would shed off the US monetary system fast.
The dollar is a flawed currency. It’s time that it took a nose dive down the bottomless pit for all that it’s worth.
Ben Bernanke is making prediction ? Why not say it like the oldman blatantly ? Why not say next year Americans are going to have Golden Period and More Good Years !
aiyoyo
good la if economic downturn end soon..
not sure in what ways ben predict this? he got show data?
how about the elites in this country predict about the economic downturn recovery?
aiyoyo
is indeed a good news if the US recession is coming to an end.
i am sure everyone will welcome it.
however, all the above remarks shows otherwise.
can feel that that most people are persimistic about the recovery.
sad sad sad….. anyway, life still got to go on regardless you like it or not.
let us be more optimistic instead.
and time will tell….
If Ben Bernanke has a crystal ball he will be richer than Bill Gates and Warren Buffett! Like his predecessor, Alan Greenspan who swore that he did not know that there was a housing bubble, Bernanke also does not know what lies ahead.
The world has lost about US$50 Trillion since the start of the meltdown last year and to say that everything is now hunky dory and the recession will end this year is just snake-oil salesman talk. Better be prepared than sorry !
The whole financial system is designed with one magic word …’Confidence’.
Whether is Pandit or Lewis who has just annouced the promising earnings of their companies for the first 2 months of 2009, their only purpose is about restoring confidence of the whole world.
Strictly speaking, though talking is cheap, but really that is what the whole world needs. Unless we are talking about transition of an era (letting go of modern financial system) moving to the next, otherwise, restoring confidence is the only way to go.
In other words, ‘confidence’ is more important than fundamentals in this era. Take it or leave it.
Talk is cheap. To restore confidence after a meltdown you need more than just talk. You need to restore a sound monetary system not based on fiat currency and you need good corporate governance and watchful regulatory bodies.
One of the causes of the current meltdown was errant banks and insurance companies like AIG losing trillions of dollar making incredible bets in derivatives and credit default swaps, with money they did not have. Lehman Bros and Bears Stearn went bankrupt and into oblivion precisely because of that.
Gearing of 30 to 1 was outrages and yet the regulatory bodies were asleep at the switch!
The US has spent nearly US$11 trillion trying to resuscitate the economy without much success.
Now we see the central banks in the UK and the US resorting to “quantitative easing” which is a euphemism for cranking up the printing press! The US Federal Reserve Bank will print another US$1.2 Trillion soon!!
But throwing more money into the meltdown which was caused by unbridled debts and bets in the first place is like throwing petrol into a fire! Its like lending more money to a bankrupt! It won’t work as it will only ignite hyperinflation!
soon oil price will up again thanks to us&a investment
“They have created a banking system where they create money from nothing and lend it governments and individuals.
They have created central banks in almost every country and we all owe them interest on money they created from nothing.
This new money created is the cause of inflation because it causes the value of money in circulation to go down”
Many Americans didnt realise this.