Donaldson Tan / Head, TOC International / London
LONDON – A study by Imperial College London revealed that one in three persons who come in contact with Swine Flu could be infected. According to lead researcher Professor Neil Ferguson, the Swine Flu virus H1N1 does have a full pandemic potential and it is likely to spread around the world in the next six to nine months. Professor Ferguson currently sits on the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) Emergency Committee for the Swine Flu Outbreak.
The Nature of Swine Flu
For every person infected, it is likely that there will be between 1.2 and 1.6 secondary cases. This is high compared to normal seasonal influenza, where around 10-15 percent of the population are likely to become infected. Children are twice as likely to become infected with Swine Flu. Data from an isolated Swine Flu outbreak in a Mexican village showed that 61% of those aged under 15 becoming infected, compared with 29% of those over 15.
The study also suggested that 4 in 1000 cases of Swine Flu infection could lead to death, thus making this strain of influenza as lethal as the one found in the 1957 Flu Pandemic. However, the researchers stressed that healthcare has greatly improved in many countries (including Singapore) since 1957 and the world is now better prepared. 92% of the deaths so far are concentrated in Mexico – a third world country where the population still suffers from poor healthcare infrastructure and inadequate access to healthcare.
Dr Keji Fukada, Acting Assistant Director General of WHO, had earlier cited that the people outside Mexico who contracted Swine Flu are in their mid-20s and that they were travelling. He raised the possibility that the age profile of Swine Flu patient reflected the fact that this age group represents the majority of international travellers or that older people are less susceptible to Swine Flu infection, just like most cases of influenza.
Important Things to take Note
Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan reminded Singaporeans not to over-react when they see more people down with flu.” Every year, seasonal flu cases in Singapore peak in the middle of the year, and again at year-end. The public should be mentally prepared for that, and not be alarmed when they see more people down with flu,” he said. The Singapore Government has lowered Swine Flu Alert Status from Orange to Yellow. So far, there is zero confirmed case of Swine Flu in Singapore while Southeast Asia has registered 2 confirmed cases in Thailand.
The standard treatment for Swine Flu is a 5-day course of Tamiflu and treatment should begin within the first 48 hours of infection. 5-day course of Tamiflu costs S$60 and it is only available as doctor’s prescription. Swine Flu becomes dangerous when it degenerates into Pneumonia. Every year, 600 Singaporeans die from Pneumonia developed from Seasonal Flu. It is not uncommon if one’s company healthcare plan or healthcare insurance do not cover Swine Flu. It is not known if Medisave can be used to cover Swine Flu treatment.
More information on preventive measures to avoid contracting Swine Flu can be found here
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One important thing about these figures is that they can change overnight, all of a sudden. For example, the secondary infection rate is between 1.2 and 1.6, but this can change to as high as 100% if an infected person is in the vicinity. So, read these figures with extreme caution.
The point cannot be over-emphasised, that which goes into the precautionary measures to contain the spread of Swine Flu, or any orther virus for that matter. With all these reports flying all over the place, the best safeguard against virus is very much in your own hands.
Simple hygiene practises like regular hand-washing, sneezing into a tissue, wear a mask and stay away from crowded areas when sick etc are the most effective weapon we possess against such viral attacks.
Minister Khaw may have told us not to over-react but his message must be seen in the right context. We musn’t over react to the point when fatigue sets in and we become complacent. This is where the danger will surface from and we must be clear about this.
We MUST however, over-react, when it comes to good and proper precautionary measures. This is our responsibility and no one can be spared from this responsibility, for a pandemic outbreak will only happen through the weakest link.
For those of you with children, it is good to inculcate these good hygiene habits and here is a website that is targeted specially for children. Teach them when they are young.
http://germywormy.com/
We have SARS before. Of course some died but we survived and prosper until recently.
Now it is swine flu. Of course some will die but we will survive and prosper again or followed by another recession.
Everyday people born and people die. Life goes on. When your time is up, it’s up. If not, it’s not. Don’t bother so much.
These seem to go in line with the Spanish flu back in the early 20th century. H1N1 (same as this strain!) variant A, killed an estimated 100 million people and infected 500 million which is about 1 in 3 persons in of the global population. Better safe than sorry.
Apparantly poster 1) likes to bend over and die. Wheres your fighting spirit.
sorry, poster 2) [So be it lah]
Swine flu, Mas Selamat etc etc blah blah blah blah……….I think its overdone and it sucks big time. For God sake, get rid of these fear factors and be merry!!!!!!!!
2) So be it lah,
Disagree that our outlook should be in the manner you have put across. Indeed, people die everyday and ‘life goes on’. Three very simple to read words: “Life goes on” – but do you know how difficult to live them?
You talked about SARS but I wonder if you really understood what it was and how devastating it was. If we had not learnt anything from it, and if we have not been looking for ways to contain such outbreaks, the condition today would have been very much different.
It is people who think like you, that is most dangerous to the spread of such viruses. Yet, there are people like me, who have been working behind the scenes, quietly and hopefully, that everyone around the world, not only here in Singapore, fully understand the danger that a simple virus posessess.
Life will not go on if we are caught by a super-strain that has no antidote to suppress it. We are very close to such reality with the constant mutation of these viruses.
Hi Gemami,
I remembered the 2003 SARS Outbreak very well. I was working behind the scenes too. I was part of the helicopter medical team that had to visit ships calling at the Singapore’s ports to verify the crew is SARS-free. If we encountered a highly possible case, we had to transport the sick seaman to Tan Tock Seng Hospital while the rest of the crew is quarantined in their ship. It was a very rewarding experience.
This time there’s no outbreak here so we can already consider it a blessing, it doesnt mean the next flu mutation is containable. Anyway, by order of nature, human evolution will always be survival of fittest, only the most flu tahan body will live to pass on, scientist can try to override but will wait 100years
Hi Donaldson,
Indeed, some of us do remember the SARS outbreak. How to forget when you see colleagues who had been working alongside you coming down with the virus and confined to wards where you are all by yourself, awaiting certain death, while their loved ones were not able to get close to them even as the laid there dying.
Over here in Tan Tock Seng, where I was (still am), everyday was a challenge – all the time the feeling was one of helplessness – while anxiously hoping that the death toll remained unchanged from day to day.
Everyone one of us, employees of TTSH, lived in fear even as we go about our daily duties. This is why it is so sad to hear people describing such outbreak with such laidback concern. Some of my colleagues, who came down with SARS and who had survived are still picking up the pieces – and coming to a full realisation that it was a close miss.
Life is never the same for these people. They are still fearful that the virus may return from within to haunt them again in the coming years. Life is never the same for those who died and for those who lived.
well i guess “so be it lah” was referring to a concept of non-attachment?
“Change is continuous in spite of our efforts to resits it. We begin to realize that we do not have any way to stop it or to slow it down. The more we try, the more we suffer. But there is a way to let go, to break this cycle of suffering. We can slow down and have a closer look at our experience of it. When we have a look, we begin to realize what we have been doing, and the whole enterprise begins to feel more and more dubious. It becomes more difficult to hide from what in our hearts we know to be true – the fact of impermanence. We recognize that we have fabricated a false and fixed identity based on self-deception, delusion, and dear; that we have enslaved ourselves to the never-ending project of shoring it up. And we begin to long for another way of going about things.”
- Judith Lief
Hi Gemami,
Yes, I concur. In fact, the 2003 SARS Outbreak was a very a humiliating experience. Mankind was reminded that despite our technological breakthroughs, we are still an ant compared to the Mammoth of Nature. At the front line, my colleagues and I were constantly worried about the possibility about us contracting the disease. My parents were so paranoid about my work that they didn’t allow me to return home. I had to stay in the airbase until the SARS Outbreak was declared over officially.
Hi Donaldson,
It was indeed a humiliating experience. Could not have described it better myself. The focus was so much on our healthcare infrastructure and the front line people who battled away with the virus. Our doctors and nurses were working overtime and extra hard to contain the uncontainable. One of our most loved doctor finally sucumbed to it while in the line of duty. I can still remember clearly the heartaches, the tears and the extensive mix of emotions as we battled on from day to day, with so much prayers aiding us.
Families shunning their own members were the common refrain at that time. My neighbours refused to get into the same lift with me and the public were looking sideways at those who alighted around TTSH and CDC areas. Many of the hospital staff resigned because of pressure from their families when the virus became fatal and started claiming lives. I believe you understand fully what I am talking about.
It is news to me that there were so many other goings-on outside of the hospital setting. It is so easy for one to not know that there are so many other unsung heroes whenever such incidence arises. It did not occur to me that seamen had to be verified free from SARS before entry to the island is permitted. I am sure there are many other protocols put in place and it was the detailed planning and execution of these that helped us survive that encounter.
This is why, it is so important for each and every one to realise this. A viral attack can be more devastating that a terror attack. It is real and not something that will only happen to the other person. If it hits us, or rather, when it hits us, none of us will ever stand a chance – not with all the technological advancements we have at our disposal.
When a strain that is totally new and deadly comes along, it will take time for a new antidote to be researched before it can be deemed effective. While this is going on, many would have died from it. This is the way it had been throughout history, and it will be no different for any generation, unless we are one step ahead of any virus mutation. We are not.
Before we can get ahead of viral mutations, our only protection is right here in our own hands. Good hygiene practises is for everyone.
Yes. SAF’s role in managing the SARS Outbreak was omitted from mainstream media coverage. Incidentally, I was in the Air Force then.
Malaysia has one confirmed case. Any Singaporean dare to visit JB now?
So be it lah,
is somehow right about taking it with a tinge of humour. if its really so devastating why not close our borders? people still travel to affected countries (precaution? lol…). being such a dense city state, the rate of infection can spread much faster than a larger country with a (even larger) population spread out further afield.
1 can take all precaution, but when things go wrong & you’re hit- you’re hit. like how if train got stuck during peak hour, if there’s a sick dude who may not show any symtoms yet next to me & i got the bug, how (to contact trace?)?
i scared this bug “will do us in”, very stress ler, how?
i oso wish my fighting spirit is that bug resistant! haa… :P
There is a thing called ‘containment’. In our moderm globalised world where the
doors to one country from another are practically opened 24/7, it becomes
imperatively necessary that measures be put in place to tackle such outbreaks
against this backdrop.
Imagine everyone having the mindset of So be it lah and let fate takes
its course, since we do not know if the guy sitting next to us is carrier or not?
History has shown us that millions will die because of such ignorance and
attitude.
Yet, the virus can be contained, and more necessary so in a globalised
world of free frontiers, by simple, responsible acts like hand-washing, and
good hygiene practises. This will not only prevent the spread of the virus
but also, on a personal level, makes you a cleaner and germ-free person
- for your own benefit.
Let us not pour scorn on any viral attacks but to take it just as seriously as
we take terrorism. Lets us not regret our action/non-action only when we
ourselves or our loved ones are caught by it. It might be too late then.
So what if we take precautions when there are still people travelling. We cannot ban people from coming to Singapore. The least we can do is ban locals from going overseas.
Dear loop,
No one can stop anyone travelling between countries in our modern day landscape. The reasons why we need to take all these precautionary steps are manifold. We are not feeling its effect because we have not yet seen any confirmed cases in Singapore. However, SARS have taught us and shown to us why these precautionary measures are important and necessary.
For example, should we get a visitor with the H1N1virus, we can immediately identify the cluster of people who came in contact with him, quarantine them and treat them before the virus spread to the community. What happens in such a prepared scenario is that the carrier is immediately identified and treated, preventing further spread, those affected by him are also isolated and treated and also preventing further spread. This is how the community is protected.
Should the carrier slip through our dragnets and later showed up at one of our hospitals for treatment, we can immediately, retrace the steps, carry out contact tracing and effect remedial actions as soon as possible. Time is of the essence and these precautionary measures will enable us to save lots of time, and lives, while protecting the community at large.
Also, for your information, all hospital staff had their leave cancelled the moment the alert level was declared yellow. Most have only partial refunds for their holiday tickets which were already paid for earlier.