Rajiv Chaudhry / Writer
In this four-part series, Rajiv contends that Singapore’s current economic model of high growth, which has served the nation well in the past, is unsustainable for the future as it will undermine Singapore’s ability to provide a high standard of living for its people.
Part One | Part Two | Part Three | Part Four |
The fallacy
In 20 years time Singapore’s streets and shopping malls are likely to be much more crowded, its living quarters more cramped and commuting to work much more stressful than it is today. There will be few primary forests remaining outside the catchment areas.
Pressure on all types of services will mount because of the large numbers of people crammed into a relatively small amount of space.
(Photo: The Montée de Clausen castle in the City of Luxembourg. Luxembourg is a country Singapore could emulate. Courtesy of Wolfgang Staudt / Creative Commons)
Our population has already grown tremendously. A population of 7-8 million will be double that in 1990 and four times that at independence.
During this time, our land area will have has increased by only 20% while population density will have has gone from 3,235 people per sq km (ppsk) at independence to 6,760 ppsk now and will increase to 10,000 ppsk when the population is 8 million.
This is the fallacy of never-ending growth, in the context of a country so severely constrained by physical limitations and lack of manpower. Why is it a fallacy? Because the fruits of this growth are of dubious value.
A country may adopt a high growth model during its developing phase but when it has achieved First World status on the Human Development Index (HDI) -– which uses parameters such as per capita GDP, life expectancy, infant mortality and literacy – it needs to re-examine its growth strategy and adopt a different economic model.
A “growth at all costs” model is good for only part of the journey. When a mountain is looming and we start the climb, we need to engage a low gear. But when a plateau is reached, it is necessary to change gear so as to comfortably cruise at a higher speed for a long time.
Leisure time a measure of quality of life
We have gone full-cycle, only to create another similar cycle for ourselves to run, albeit not at the very beginning of the old cycle, but with similar implications. We shall need to train and retrain each new wave of immigrants that comes in. Our job will never be done. We will strive and strain, yet our citizens may never enjoy a quality of life that is sustainable or comparable to that in Europe.
An important measure of quality of life is the amount of leisure time that citizens have. In Europe, the average working hours are 36.8 hours per week while paid annual leave averages 26 days. Its citizens place a high premium on leisure time and weekends and they rarely allow their working lives to interfere with family and leisure pursuits. In summer in the Scandinavian countries, it is common for offices to close at 3.00 pm, so that workers are able to make full use of the good weather.
In Singapore, the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) stipulates a maximum of 44 work-hours per week and 14 days’ annual leave. Anecdotal evidence, however, suggests Singaporeans spend far longer hours at work than MOM regulations specify. At the same time, look at the amount of time their children spend on schoolwork, homework and tuition.
There is lip service for “work-life balance.” If we look around us, there is little evidence of it. The more people there are, the greater will be the competition and strife. This does not mean that we must be complacent but surely, we must have, to quote William Henry Davies, “time to stand and stare” when we call ourselves a developed nation?
Conclusion
Singapore has done well on the HDI, on which it is ranked 25th. However, in its haste to grow the economy and its single-minded focus on achieving the outward trappings of a developed country, it has neglected another important indicator of development, the Gini coefficient which is used to measure income inequality.
As a result, it has failed to pull along the less fortunate in our society, the people C K Prahalad refers to as being at the ‘bottom of the pyramid’ (BOP)[i].
A Human Development Report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 2007/08 on income equality placed Singapore 78th in a list of 126 countries, with a Gini index of 42.5, the same as Burundi and Kenya, and behind other developing countries such as Pakistan, Vietnam and Bangladesh (the greater the difference in income between the top and the bottom, the lower the ranking).
So a great deal lot more needs to be done to raise the living standard of those at the BOP. It is here that the energies and minds of our planners and policy-makers need to be concentrated.
We need to shed our sometimes over-sized ego and discard talk of “punching above our weight” in world affairs and concentrate instead on quietly getting on with the job of nation-building with particular emphasis on helping those at the BOP.
In the 1970s and1980s, Singapore’s urban planners planned for a target population of four million. Singapore met and surpassed this target and is now aiming for 6.5 million.
Contrast this with a country such as Luxembourg (area 2,586 sq km) which has a population of just 480,000, yet enjoys per capita GDP of $141,625[ii], the highest in the world according to the IMF and World Bank.
Its economic goals are perhaps no less modest than Singapore’s, yet by concentrating on services and moderate growth policies, its small population is able to enjoy an extremely high quality of life, giving it the 4th highest ranking in the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)’s Quality of Life index.
It has not felt the need to “import” large numbers of people and grow additional “wings” to its economy, which is anchored mainly by banking and financial services (in recent years, it has tried to attract successful Internet companies). Nor has it felt the need to be all things to all people.
It is certainly a model that is worth emulating.
As our leaders have told us many times, Singapore is unique and needs to find unique solutions to its own particular situation. We are unusual in having a limited land mass with high economic value and output and no friendly hinterland on which we can depend.
No other country in modern times has had to face quite the same set of circumstances. There is no template or model that tells an Asian country how to rapidly grow an economy (and population size) with an open immigration policy and then “shrink” it or at least keep the population stable while “growing” the quality of life index.
But it is something our state planners must urgently turn their minds to.
End of Part Four. This article concludes the entire series.
Part One | Part Two | Part Three | Part Four |
______________________________________________________________________________
[i] ‘The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid’ C K Prahalad, Wharton School Publishing www.whartonsp.com
[ii] Singapore’s per capita GDP is $58,458
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For everyone’s reference:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-of-life_index
Note that Singapore is not in top 5 countries, despite having highest paid ministers
“Note that Singapore is not in top 5 countries, despite having highest paid ministers”
I think u are have just mollycoddled our government LOL
Will this sound better ?
“Note that Singapore is not even in top 10 countries despite having the TOP 30 highest paid politicians in the world.
Yes, we may not have the quality of life for citizen but I’m sure ours held the number 1 position for quality of life for politicians. No accountability, no responsibility, no transparency, nothing to worry about and yet still the world’s highest pay. Best Job in the World, and Best Quality of Life. We should be proud of our politicians.
Oh Yes, running dog could say we are JEALOUS of QOL for our politicians, but then who wouldn’t ?
Unrealistic for Temasek to always outperform or avoid losses, says Finance Minister – Quote CNA
But this was after a much greater gain of S$114b in its investment portfolio over the preceding five years, from the time the market cycle began in 2003.
He told the House that even after taking into account the recent sharp market declines, Temasek’s portfolio had in fact grown by S$56b based solely on returns from investments made.
Year 2003 (S$114b gain) ??? Where have these money gone to and how come from that year till today, singaporeans keep paying higher and higher taxes, where is the money???? Mr Tharman! we singaporeans have every rights to know where is the money gone to?
tiredsingaporean,
nothing new. ex-president Ong find the discrepancy too.
In army, you have something call T-Load before inspection. That is borrow some items that is lost to make up for the shortfor before formal audit , and return it afterwards. Every look good. Perfect with no bad record. High recon status. Every soldier happy.
Now does that tell you something ?
tiredsingaporean
A question for Our dear FM, when is those gain/loses benchmark against?
“Unrealistic for Temasek to always outperform or avoid losses” – FM
Then isn’t it unrealistic too for our dear leaders to have ever-increasing pay and not much of a pay cut during crisis. Furthermore our dear leaders always seems to be able to perform and never make any mistake, since mistake is attributed to external source while success is thanks to them….yet another illogical remarks from our dear leaders..
if you want equal standard to be used, and wants the people to be realistic, please be realistic about your own capabilities, instead of wearing a hat that is bigger then your head. since the previous boast about our leaders capabilities are been used against them right now
aiyoyo
later this country become the picture/photo attached (old look), how huh??
who’ll help the commoners??
aiyoyo
:)
Luxembourg (LX) is a stable, high-income economy – benefiting from its proximity to France, Belgium, and Germany – The industrial sector, dominated by steel, has become increasingly diversified to include chemicals, rubber, and other products.
//It has not felt the need to “import” large numbers of people and grow additional “wings” to its economy,//
The economy depends on foreign and cross-border workers for about 60% of its labor force.
Military expenditures:
LX = 0.9% of GDP (2005 est.) whereas SG blows 4.9% of GDP (2005 est.)
Working hour in LX is 40 hours per week max by law, SG = 44
Netherland 45 hours
Changes have been made to the Dutch Working Hours Act to legitimise longer hours in some circumstances. The amendments, which came into force on 1 April 2007, mean that workers who are not covered by a collective agreement will be able to work up to a maximum of 12 hours per day, 60 hours per week.
Natural resources:
LX got iron ore , arable land , SG got NeWater
The cost of living in Luxembourg is one of the highest in the world
individual income tax rates sometimes above 40% (38.95% + 2.5 percent surcharge
Besides individual income and corporate income tax, a VAT (value added tax) and a wealth tax are also prominent.
Home, condo and apartment prices can be high, especially in key areas. Prices are similar to New York or San Francisco.
In Luxembourg, there remain too many prejudices and xenophobic
stereotypes among the general public and racism and discrimination
in the employment and housing sectors.
Grass greener on the other side?
A King ordered a contest for the painting to depict “peace”
Among the many painting, he chose the winning artwork, a mother bird tending to its young in a nest perched on a cliff neext to a thunderous waterfall.
Asked his aide ” How could this be peaceful at all? ”
Replied the King
“The mother bird, tended to its young, with total peace of mind, oblivious and unaffected by its noisy surrounding, That is the true meaning of inner peace”
The art of happiness come from within oneself.
“The art of happiness come from within oneself.”
Tell that to LKY and his minions
It is fine to talk about the GINI index. But it is wrong to call it an indicator of development. It is not. There are developed countries with high GINI and developed countries with low GINI. There are poor countries with high GINI and poor countries with low GINI.
Also, as some commenters have indicated, there are things about Luxembourg that don’t mesh with your idea of using it as a model. The most glaring thing is immigration. Luxembourg is one of the few countries that has a higher net immigration rate that Singapore (check CIA factbook for numbers). Wikipedia mentions that immigrants account for 37% of the population!
“Wikipedia mentions that immigrants account for 37% of the population!”
Wikipedia also mentions that: Luxembourg has a population of under half a million people in an area of approximately 2,586 square kilometres (999 sq mi).
Daniel & SZ
I dunno if you guys fell the same as me when you observe or follow whatever those MIW making a statement on things that are connected to money matters, their figures keep changing all the time, if they are not telling lies, then why those figures keep changing? and the funny thing is that since their books are not transparent with no one for checks and balance all these years, they seems as though they can just throw up any digit they wish just to tell you people, its done!
Rajiv,
Good articles. Thanks for writing them. I agree that we need to slow down our pace so that we have time to smell the flowers. But practically, how do you propose we do that? The fast pace of life is so ingrained in the culture, that even if the govt says “stop”, we will still all keep on running. Like how when teachers give less homework to their students, their parents complain that teachers are not doing their job.
that is the sad story of S’pore’s “success”. Asian men dreaming of European life. what Swiss standard of living? that already hints of “the grass is greener on the other side”. i heard you KopitiamApek!! heh… :P
that mindset may also be the reason why most locals do not take pride in local start-ups. the elites look down on locals SMEs, refering any govt aid to being protectionist, can we blame the general population?
correct me if i am wrong, i do believe local companies like
1) Kong Guan, that manufactures buscuits, etc,
2) Showy, that manufactures sanitary wares,
3) Creative, that manufactures portable media players, etc,
could have been given a much welcomed boost to globalise & make S’pore proud.
if the 3 companies were highly successful in the bid to make name in the international arena, they could have partly cushioned the impact of shifting economic climate. let me explain further it does not mean manufacturing, but more of creative industries like designing, product innovation, & so on.
the success of local companies could have been be the real growth.
hi Gerald Giam,
anything that can be ingrained can be re-ingrained. it just takes time, with the political will to achieve it, it can be done. its all about social conditioning, eg, spitting in public.
just as locals have be told to “moderate expectations” & “be less choosey” for the wrong reasons like depressing wages, surely the current generation will heed advise that is for their own benefit, like a healthy mind enhances a healthy body.
tiredsingaporean,
I would not be surprised if most of these ministers themselves do have access to those financial data, they are just told those figures without much questioning, which is for their own good. Since they do not know the figure breakdown, they wouldn’t feel guilty and can just focus on their job. Hence from time to time, you see minister gerrymandering when ask about financial state of reserves, investment and can only speak rhetorics to “MOVE ON”.
I believe that certain family purposely withhold those sensitive in case if the minister/gahmen feel remorse and emotion, or “accidentally” one day reveals the truth. Yes, the family as we know never trust anyone other than themselves. No matter how they conceal, the whole of Singapore INC is still family-run business since at the end the finance is only accountable to only few VIPs. The finance is the most critical that when compromise destroy a company just like enron, worldcom. If you ask me if there is something even better than Enron, worldcom, it is TinyRedDot.
” if they are not telling lies, then why those figures keep changing?”
That is the best part as one can’t just accuse them of telling lies if they just regurgitate what is been scripted. They act like messenger just reading some script if you notice.
One blogger “Musuh” contributed interesting info at Gopalan Nair’s blog:
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8081742307252789733&postID=1361006352017457481&isPopup=true
So far, whatever laws we can do nothing about it even if voices are heard.
So, am i right?
“So far, whatever laws we can do nothing about it even if voices are heard.”
If the voice is about increasing those minister and gahmen’s pay, about suppressing more dissent voice, make them look and feel good, I’m sure they can happily do something about it.
so what have u heard in Kopi shops so far?
Question:
1. Do you know the exact losses ? If not what is the basis for all your ramblings?
2. Does NMPs have power to object any bill at all? Why opposition view is welcomed but not the power to object? In effect, how different is a NMP from a well known Blogger – so many out there already?
3. You view on Appoint & Nominate vs ELECTED.
teh tarek mai teh pls. take away.
Ecologists call our situation overshoot. The earth can only support a finite number of humans and amount of consumption. Grow anymore and humans will turn on each other ferociously to maintain their own comfort levels as the resource pie shrinks.
http://www.npg.org/forum_series/catton_malthus.htm
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/6069
There is a solution and that is to aim for negative population growth and embrace a steady state economy.
http://www.npg.org/purpose.html
http://www.steadystate.org/CASSEFAQs.html
Unfortunately, our government and the world are obsessed with growth at all costs. They cannot see the big picture that our misguided quest for growth entails the destruction of our earth and community. This will end very uglily.
Growth does NOT equal prosperity!
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-5-growth-vs-prosperity
Replied the King
“The mother bird, tended to its young, with total peace of mind, oblivious and unaffected by its noisy surrounding, That is the true meaning of inner peace”
Have you noticed that a lot of kings are now consigned to ceremonial roles only.
King is borned into the role. The only qualification is being the first or chosen son of the previous king.
We know mother bird has to tend to its young. For a King, please tell me who needs tending more ? The King or his subjects ?
#24
I cannot see the relevance of your question. Please enlighten me, “If millions of eyes can see, yet why am I so blind?” BeeGees
#26
The focus of the story was on one’s state of mind, the King was just an incidental charactor, which could be replaced with any other charactor that is capable of organising a painting contest.
whereas yours is on the King or his subjects, nevetheless an interesting angle to look at it and I respect that.
15) Small Time Businessman on May 29th, 2009 11.41 pm “Wikipedia mentions that immigrants account for 37% of the population!”
Actually, the economy depends on foreign and cross-border workers for about 60% of its labor force.
13) Small Time Businessman on May 29th, 2009 11.29 pm “The art of happiness come from within oneself.”
It is our life. We can choose to live it well in the present context, (which is attainable) while taking action to make it better, or bitch about all day and wait for the day the ideal condition arrives. That is a personal choice.
“We can choose to live it well in the present context, (which is attainable) while taking action to make it better, or bitch about all day and wait for the day the ideal condition arrives. That is a personal choice.”
Then you should just steer clear of online citizen….you are already very happy, right?
Why are you not answering the question :
Do you know the complete truth about Losses in exact amounts?
You praise a lot.
But please do not be selective when you praise.
Else you are not credible if you selectively ignore tough questions.
If you Know the complete truth about the losses,
can you prove it?
If you Do Not Know,
why have you not questioned it? Is it because you trust?
can enlighten?
#31
Then you should just steer clear of online citizen….”
You have a problem with dissending view?
What happen to openness popularly bragged about? Openness only when in agreement? Then all is same same with what all the bitching that gahmen do not take in dissending view right?
32) Roderic Sng
I have been told I sometimes goes off topic. Aren’ t the question off topic?
“You have a problem with dissending view?”
you dont seem happy
#35
Life is a continuum from feeling pek chek to euphoria
: )
KopitiamApek, sometimes when we say something. it does not go down too well for people who disagree, but do not be discouraged by it. in the heat of the moment, some can be carried away too emotionally only because 1 feels strongly on certain issues brought up. like you, i am rather new here, am adapting to this forum’s posting “style”.
btw, yes, i admit i am the 1 who raised the issue of “going off topic” with you. but do not take it to heart, staying on topic will raise the standard of posts by sticking to the points & limit unnecessary “backlash”.
on a lighter note, disagree not always = huntum, unless its a personal attack. ;)
#37
raising the issue of “going off topic” is a very prudent thing to do.
no worries, my skin is almost as thick as the skin of the amour-plated abram tanks
staying on topic is essential, totally agree
otherwise it cross pollenation
and every topic degenerate into the same generalisation, making it non conducive for productive duscussion
like I read everywhere ranting on how many gazillion bucks temasek lost, how hopeless gahmen is in every aspect, not that there is no truth to them, but when it get to become a universal answer for every topic, then how to dicsuss.
not unlike a child arguing with his old grandmother which the dialogue may go something like this
child: ah mah, can I switch TV channel please?
ah mah: you unfiliel thing, you know I worked my fingers to the bone and now you wont let me watch “Don’t forget your lyric”
child: ah mah, can I eat KFC instead please?
ah mah: you unfiliel thing, you know I worked my fingers to the bone and now you wont let me eat my tau suan
child: ah mah, can I go to school now, I am late liao?
ah mah: you unfiliel thing, you know I worked my fingers to the bone and now you cannot wait one minute
etc
Singaporeans spend far longer hours at work than MOM regulations specify. There is lip service for “work-life balance.”
true, some of my colleagues (not me) work 50hr/wk for the same 42hr/wk pay
If the politicians(ministers) are for the people the PM should take a pay cut right across the board of ministers in these bad times. Politics (politicians who become ministers) are dirty business. So voters (especially the young having good memories) MUST show their anger the next Gen. election. HURT them where it hurts.
what happens if PAP lose the GE? are the politician on the other side going to give more welfare to ppl or is it dirty buz all over again?
“what happens if PAP lose the GE? are the politician on the other side going to give more welfare to ppl or is it dirty buz all over again?”
Dunno. But with PAP, you already know the answer
Presently, the local population is over 4 million, i.e. 3 Singaporeans to one foreigners. However, these foreigners are not spreadly evenly throughtout Singapore. These foreigners like to live in clusters, as a result in some places, the ratio of Singaporeans to foreigners is 2 to 1 or even 1.5 to 1. This is very unhealthly. If the Govt want to encourage foreigners to come here, then they should have a master plan whereby foreigners are evenly spread all over Singapore, spreading them to even exclusive private estates
43) toiletmatter
//what happens if PAP lose the GE? are the politician on the other side going to give more welfare to ppl or is it dirty buz all over again?//
Good thinking my friend.
Better the devil u know than the devil u don’t?
to TOC
my posts #40 and #41 moderated off fair. I think I was off topic.
some devils are imaginary…
life is full of unkowns, if we constantly live in fear, we would never succeed in life. fear of failure being 1. there are important lessons to be learned from failure, like how babies learn to walk on 2 legs. by trying till we succeed, similiarly, when encountering a situation that we never have, we are once again like babies trying to walk on 2 legs. some people fear such situations as it puts them outside their comfort zone, but we cannot stop change (it being the only constant thing in the world), we will have to adapt to it.
S’pore dealt with unkowned unkowns after independence at a time the odds are high. take comfort we today are in a much stronger position to deal with most unkown unkowns. do you want to let fear control you, or you control the fear?
hi Hindsight,
our govt would not control the foreigners ratio as they may not have given enough thought on that? if any thought is given on how & where to house them, employers or foreign workers’ agents would not be housing them in unhygienic, overcrowded &/or often illegal places and a cobination of these reasons.
the influx of the number of foreign workers brought with little afterthought on general health issues (that will directly affect local population), social & political cost is rearing its ugly head. & who has been paying for it?
Do you know the complete truth about Losses in exact amounts?
But are you genuinely interested in the truth or are you just trying to find a soft spot to poke?
If you are interested in the performance of investments, then you should compare the overall portfolio (and not the absolute loss of a specific investment) to an index that Temesek can trivially implement (such as the MSCI World Index).
If you want the flexibility of investing yourself, then don’t expect anyone of even trying to plan for you.
“The focus of the story was on one’s state of mind, the King was just an incidental charactor, which could be replaced with any other charactor that is capable of organising a painting contest.”
Agreed and I respect your explanation. A character of more desirable qualification would be more appropriate. History is replete with many lessons to be learned when kings are involved.
Kingly characters could always quote desirable proverbs, idioms, wise words invented not by themselves but by others while using it as an excuse for their own questionable behaviours.
A lot of people have good intention but we need to use it wisely for the good of the nation as a whole.