There is no V-shaped; now the optimistic scenario is a U-shaped recovery, a deep U, a fat U, and if we are lucky, gradually recovering from the later part of this year or early next year.
But if we are not lucky, it could be an L-shaped problem – economy is still shrinking, after a while it doesn’t shrink so fast, it stops shrinking, but it stays at the bottom a long time before slowly picking up again, no growth or poor growth for several years to come.
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Now we are talking about fat U or L shaped recovery, can the first-world PM and his team highlight to the people what they will be implementing to help our people and economy during this difficult time.
The implication of fat U or a L recovery means that a lot of people will be undergoing hardship. What is the govt going to do to relieve the hardship. Retraining does not mean re-employment in a economic contradiction. It is definitely not curing the root of the problem.
Just like the swiber flu problem, containment approach does not work anymore. We need working vaccine to fight against the flu. In the same light, we need more fresh idea to rejuvenate our economy.
So now we have moved into a new economic phase? Luck Based Economy? Why then do we need still need to retain the ‘top dollar brains’ when their role is no different from the uncles at the coffeeshop deciphering numbers for the next 4D and Toto bet?
As I said in my article on TOC , ‘Will this be Singapore’s lost decade?’ Did the PM also read my article?. Let’s hope he also takes on board my suggestions for a paradigm shift in policy. The Reform Party will be giving more details about its policies at the forthcoming Press Conference.
yeah yeah yeah…blah blah blah….you’re paid 6 times that of Obama to just reiterate basically what the leading economists in the world has foretold. Can you please spout something more credible and original ?
By the way, how can you not see this coming ?? With a multi-million dollars salary you’d better have the super brain of a fortune teller. Otherwise, stop branding yourselves as the creme de la creme and deserving compensation on par with top earners in SG.
You can pay my daughter just $10 and she can also rattle off text book answers like yours above from any issue of business times.
So what is the govt. doing? Ministers with their ‘fat U’ salaries? I believe they must show they are with the people by taking a PAY CUT? If not the people MUST rise up in the next election. CHI LAI !!! CHI LAI !!!
WOw big words , that i almost got lost in reading the paragraph, its funny how our reporters don’t seem to be able to ask questions that the general public would like to know.
Like so what does all this mean ? Sit and wait for the cows to come home ? What is the govt doing about the recession, all this talk is hot air ……
There is no value add to improve the current situation, does anyone know if the money we lost in Temasek Holdings could have saved us ??? sorry for the dumb question ……
“By the way, how can you not see this coming ??” : #3) samantha_Loy .
Silly you! He saw it coming many many years ago. That was why he made sure he paid himself extremely well before it happens. He is the creme de la creme alright! We have been so well creamed!
Anyway, some food for thought for fellow-Singaporeans.
Since the doom and gloom is not going to get better, and since the government cannot do anything about it because this will depend solely on the recovery speed of the global economy; why not then, we take the chance and vote in the Opposition, as many as we possibly can, and give them this period to re-skill, up-skill, retrain and regain? Let us SPUR them while they learn on the job, SPUR-JOB. Good idea?
As our economic depends on USA and luck, why not outsource our world class government to USA. So they will do good for USA and will be goog for Singapore.
Please do give the government credit for what they have achieved. I don’t see how any other government could have avoided the situation we are in. No one foresaw the depth of this crisis, not even Obama, or NMC CEOs paid ten times what our ministers get. The economic progress over the last 5 decades is not an accident. It is the result of the sweat of thousands of EDB and other ministry officers and the vision of people like Goh Keng Swee. Of course as we are the most affluent economy is SE Asia, our decline will be the fastest in a downturn, cause we are falling from a greater height. We are now able to fund the stimulus package from pass reserves, without a cent borrow from future generation – how many other countries have that option?
Hey guys it is not their fault that the economy is so bad that they cannot do much except to wait for others to recover. It is simply beyond them. The only thing that can save us now is a two-day SPUR training program. There is a fat and deep U inside spUr.
As for minister’s pay, there is no U or V in their vocabulary. Only a laterally inverted L; _|. Up up and away!
#3 Samantha
“By the way, how can you not see this coming ?? ”
PM said “But if we are not lucky, it could be an L-shaped problem”. He already gave a clue why they didnt see it coming. They were not looking at all, how can they see? He was depending on luck. If we are lucky we will be a great nation and if we are not lucky, then its a double L (LL short for something in Hokien).
Let us Lesser mortals not begrudge the high pays of Ministers, 8 month bonuses of CDC civil servants or even 5 weeks french cooking courses for civil servants. They deserve it because they are lucky. We the citizens of Singapore, are the unlucky ones.
Totally and fully agree with Lesser Mortal.
Let us try our luck further. Get the opposition into parliament, who knows, we might just get lucky too! Singapore has been, still is, and will forever be one very Lucky red dot.
Lee Kuan Yew was very Lucky.
Goh Chok Tong was also Lucky.
Lee Hsien Loong is definitely Lucky – with Ho Ching making it doubly Lucky.
By the law of averages, it is about time the people get Lucky.
Be patient everyone.
If we are lucky, we can win big at the casinos when they are up at the IR.
So just wait a little longer.
#10) SY
You are echoing with our government, always hyping on its past track record.
The comments generally are lamblasting that our highly paid ministers could do nothing to revive our economy other than to wait for others to recover.
Granted, PAP has done well over the past 5 decades, so i agree past leaders like Goh Keng Swee deserved that. However, for this generation, i beg to differ.
Singapore is getting more expensive to live in. Everywhere, prices are increasing at a rate that is not in line with our salary. My opinion is that the gap between the rich and the poor are wider to a third world country. There is an article on TOC: “Labour Day: Economic growth should benefit all, not just the rich” on this.
If our current crop of ministers could do nothing other than depend on luck, how are they able to justify their huge salary? (nevertheless they have a supporter like you)
#9) pc
Since our economy is always tied up with USA, i agree that out sourcing our goverment to them is an excellent idea.
if any of you has lived in places like seoul or tokyo, you wouldn’t complain about the high living expenses in singapore. singaporeans get it much better than most other countries.
how many of us work 14-16 hours a day, 7 days a week, and get only about 1 week off every year? yes, japanese may get a higher pay in japan, but their cost of living is even higher! imagine a 3-5m sq room in tokyo cost about 600-700 sgd, 1 packet of 2 stalks of xiao bai cai 3 sgd, even if their pay is twice as much as a normal office worker in sg, the living expenses is twice as high as well.
yes, our gahment gets paid much higher than their counterparts worldwide, you can’t blame them for everything that happen in this last 10 years. i don’t agree with some sg policies, bt i don’t think we should discredit the gahment left right and centre.
cat’spoop sir/mdm
we are talking about a country here, if people is unhappy about living in tokyo or seoul, they can always move to a cheaper city or go back and live in xiang1 xia4 as they call it, to cut cost, where the hell can we move to, from jurong to pasir ris or pulau ubin?
we cant compare an apple with a durian, can we?
Cat’s poop
Don’t you know the premise of their high pay is that they have helicopter vision and see beyond the horizon and anticipate problems before they occur. So, if there are problems in sg then who is responsible? Complacent singaporeans ah?
In a private sector, the boss would have screamed at PAP, don’t tell me the problem, give me the solution. That is what you are paid to do so, so get working and stop whinning about whether we are lucky or not, it is because we are not so lucky that we paid you millions to work a sound solution to make it lucky and not “tikum, tikum” to see whether this year is lucky or unlucky, do you understand LHL?
Oops! I think I stepped on some cat poops! Why compare Singapore with Seoul and Tokyo? Anyway that’s not the point. The point is why are we so demanding of this government.
Because they say they are the best! Six times better than the US president, a hundred times better that the Chinese government, and definitely better than all the governments of the world put together. They have justified this with the obscene renumerations they are lining their pockets with.
We have the right to demand and we have the right to kick as* if we want to, especially when they now turn around and say there is nothing they can do except to wait for the world to recover and to ride on our luck.
Even the optimist will puke at this suggestion!
It is so sad to talk about our reserve, the reserve that had accumulate in the last 50 yrs, are badly burnt in someone speculation. You can imagine the type of program that we can fund in the money that we had lost.
This is one fact that past glory is no guarantee for future success.
Imagine your money increase up 10% every yr, but in 1 bad yr, your money shrink by 70%. You are in even worse shape than what you started some 50 yrs ago.
This is the magic of percentage. It is always counted based on the whole pie.
gemani,
ya loh like that we can also compare our gov with tokyo/seoul’s. or our lives with those living in cheaper regions of korea or japan.
must be FAIR to our gov mah….
its a great time for the opposition to come into power. Cause mainly..:
1. people are upset
2. desire for change
3. disappointed with the govt ( on all the recent incidents, lack of accountability, etc. and oh ya, Ho Ching- how to forget that one + many more)
SO my point being, the opp should use these factors and base it from there + STRATEGIES to advance, in the upcoming GE.
MY BEST WISHES GOING OUT TO ALL OPP PARTIES! :D
After all this discussions are over, why don’t we all go to the IRs? If we are lucky, we can make $$$, if we are not so lucky, then LL loh :). We, Singaporeans must learn to read between the lines of what the gahmen is trying to say lah.
10) SY
“No one foresaw the depth of this crisis, not even Obama, or NMC CEOs paid ten times what our ministers get. ” None one is a little inaccurate since people like Warren Buffet , and he is a BIG someone , and other economist has already mention something of this magnitude will happen. and investment that the Oracle of Omaha won’t touch with a ten-foot pole, we get people investing in it and suffering paper lost in the magnitude of billions. for your info, they have been hyping about their ability to justify their pay, yet their extraordinary ability does not surpassed Obama etc, who also can’t foresee this, so why are they getting such an extraordinary paycheck? Please, your defense is just so hollow….and furthermore, you are attributing out reserves due to them? Please, wake up, the reserves are contributed over time by the blood and sweat of Singaporeans….not just them….so yes, we may not have to be funded by future generation, but it is funded by pass generation.
“our decline will be the fastest in a downturn, cause we are falling from a greater height.” Beh….you are wrong…”height and physics” has nothing to do with the speed of falling…sorry for the pun…but part of the reason is due to the export-based model that our gahmen utilized to generate GDP growth…due to that, we experience “growth” that you attribute to the gahmen which is due to the demand factor from export market, however, when the worldwide demand drops, our export also drop leading to a recession, and you seem to have forgotten who was it that depend too much on this volatile model to generate growth and say that they can’t foresee it. come on, who are you trying to smoke?
so next time, please try to have a solid foundation, if not just a little gust will blow you off…
16) cat’s poop
Before you compare us against japan, perhaps you should do some research first,as it is a part of their culture…either due to the distance to travel to work, or their loyalty to the company…not because they have to slave away to pay for stuff…and ain’t it funny, for this type of stuff, you are comparing against the world third largest economy (PPP) typical….so typical…how about comparing it to another economic tiger? oh, and for your info, although Japan cost of living is higher then ours, however the ministers in the world third largest economy is paid lesser then our dear leaders…
LoL….i don’t think we really need to listen to what the curves represent, since we know, and for those who don’t…they can look it up…either through books or the internet….what the people wants to know is what can still be done
Dear Cat’s poop
Are you from PAP?
The issue is not the high pay per se of the Ministers but rather the very poor performance. This year GDP growth is expected to be minus 6 to 9% and the Ministers continue to take their high baisc salary led by PM Lee’s USD 2.5m +. Next year economy reboiunds let say 5% and they will draw a big GDP bonus.
For the poor performance of GIC and Temasek (loss of $100 billion) and Mas Selamt’s escape, they should cut all their salaries by 50% and apologise to all Singaporeans.
[i]14) Looking Forward on May 2nd, 2009 10.15 am Be patient everyone.
If we are lucky, we can win big at the casinos when they are up at the IR.
So just wait a little longer.[/i]
sure man liked you says
meanwhile my casinos in las vegas is filin for bankruptcy
not forgettin in macau as well
IF
ha ha ha
Must try our luck with opposition lah, hor.
If cannot give 100 seats to opposition due to 50% walkovers, at least make them win 50% of the seats at the next election.
In this way, PAP lose 2 thirds majority and hence cannot suka suka make policy or talk cock. Need to teach PAP a lesson mah, if not they so easy collect their multi million $ salary.
To Law at 15)
I do not see how any government could have stopped the steep decline in the GDP. Therefore, I do not agree that the performance of the current govt is poor. I see that a range of supply side stimulus measures have been launched, which I believe to the best way out of the crisis. It would be easier for a govt to adopt a range of demand side policies – give out shopping vouchers etc, but these do not work.
Leading the nation, being responsible for every aspect of the lives of 3-4 million people is a important and difficult job. I worry that if we go on like this, blaming our leaders for every thing bad that happens, demanding resignations for everything that goes wrong, we will ensure that no able person will want to hold public office. This will indeed be a sad day for us. Yes, there is a need for checks and balances, questions raised in Parliament. I am glad we have a good opposition and able NMPs, but I say, let’s be thankful and appreciative too.
i think u guys did not read carefully what i said. i specifically mentioned that sgeans shouldn’t keep complaining about sg having high cost of living. did i say i support our ministers have the highest salary? did i say i come from the PAP? i also mentioned i do not agree with some of the gahment’s policies. why compare to seoul/tokyo, coz sg always want to be number 1 in everything what!
please read people’s comments carefully before you want to continue ur gahment bashing. kthxbai.
To: cat’s poop
“yes, our gahment gets paid much higher than their counterparts worldwide, you can’t blame them for everything that happen in this last 10 years.”
We do not want to blame our gahment for everything that has happened, but when they take credit for everything in good time (and raise their own pay), then they have to take credit for the shit too
29) SY
like what was previously said, you can try as much to lower the price of production and simulate demand for our export supply, however when the biggest market out there doesn’t have any demand for your export, nothing you do will help through supply side stimulus…and in the end, you are still stuck with a warehouse full of unwanted goods….and what happen when companies are in that situation?let me ask you this….my economy is is big trouble, you can offer the stuff cheaply to me, but do you think i will want it when time is bad? gosh…however stimulating domestic consumption at least may help, do not say that it does not work, do you have prove that it doesn’t work? any concrete evidence to prove it? if not, please, don’t give such a comment saying it won’t work…especially with your “since we are high up, we will fall faster theory”
SY, you are making it seems as though people are trying to blame the gahment whenever they can, but you have failed to take into account that there is karma/cause-and-effect. i bet it didn’t come across to your mind that if our dear leaders have not try to hype their “extraordinary” ability to justify their pay increment, this may not have happen. they have claimed extraordinary abilities yet when this recession happens, they are unable to produce the results expected of extraordinary ability and leave the solution and blames to others, they have invited the criticism on themselves…what was the saying again? if you don’t have such a big head, don’t wear such a big hat, is it? that’s the problem here and you failed to see what some of us are seeing and criticize our rights to our perception.
30) cat’s poop, calm down…at least now you know you shouldn’t complain against japan etc….since it is your fault for starting it, don’t blame others for flaming you. and you should also see carefully what some of us are trying to put across. if you are comparing cost of living vs japan but you have failed to mention that their standard of living matches the cost…. that’s double standard. when you are comparing their culture of working long hours, to make our life looks “good”, you failed to take into account that it is in the root of their culture, and you either willingly or unwillingly use this to try and create an impression that Singaporeans life are better because the Japanese have to slave away. Try to be more objective and don’t use double standard, if not your words are just hollow.
Dear Singaporean,
Let not forget mid 2007 ERP, GST increase which cost normal meals to inflate from $2 to $3 dollar and has not returned to original prices when so many ppls got retrenched and without income.
Is this good PAP policies when average singaporean pay has not increased but living cost increased for past decade!
Never buy inflated price HDB flat at this time it will fall further!
so who is the one responsible for all those high cost?
i wasn’t complaining about japan. in fact im staying there now. i did mention their salary is higher compared to sg, but since their standard of living is higher as well, my point is that it is still being offset. and my point was that since they worked so hard, their salary is obviously higher. actually alot of younger japanese do not work THAT long hours compared to the older workers, though still longer than sgeans.
im just saying that, hey sgeans, we already have a relatively good life, why always complain?
ok la, but i forgot it’s our hobby. i complain also mah, so i complain here just now about us complaining and kana flamed. -.-ll
To TrueBlood Singaporean and all those who love sg and are not lackeys,
cash is key now at least for me, other than medical fees for my family, we try not to spend on luxury items or services.
i wanna add, i find that the reason PAP give for their ministers’ high salary is quite, laughable.
cheers!
No one competitor with PAP so they call any salary they want and higher than Obama.
Even in MNC, your boss will ask you to look for 2 supplier not 1 as anti-competition will arises. PAP so believe in Demand and Supply never walk their talk!
They expect competition and competitors AMONG Singaporeans, but when it comes to themselves, that is a taboo and definitely a big NO NO.
what hypocrites.
That’s what irks me the most.
36) cat’s poop
Somehow most people feel that what we pay for our cost of living is way too much for this current state of living….but it is good to see that someone like you manage to keep his head cool when gotten flame. I believe that we all are entitled to our perception and questioning of one another is constructive, but there will always be some people who just post stuff, repeating what was been said by our dear leaders and criticizing other ideas saying that it won’t work, when they don’t have foundation on the topic.
anyway, regarding the shaped of the economy, i won’t be surprised if there are other sudden occurrences that will pop out and prolong the recession.
Hi SZ,
I do not insist I am right. I am just stating my views, which I see to be an alternative. I respect other viewpoints.
I think that, if indeed, the government had not developed the export economy, we will not have the sharp decline we have now. BUT, neither would we have the level of wealth and GDP at the present moment. I believe It is simply impossible for us to have generated the (about) 150 billion of GDP based only on developing the domestic economy. That is what I mean by the “we fall faster since we started high”
The economy is a complex thing, I am no expert. I study it a bit, and I hvae my believes, which may be wrong. But I believe in a simple logic, wealth comes from production, not consumption. I think that doling out money almost never works. More money chasing the same goods simply inflate prices. Demand side stimulus can be used sparingly to unclog a choked economy, but the underlying strength of any economy is its ability to produce things which people want. I appreciate that the present government has worked hard to built our ability to produce, and I believe that is the way to go.
True, there are times when confidence is low and no one is willing to consume much. We have to tide through these with our reserves and wait for a recovery, which must come. Cause people need little encouragement to consume.
The decline in our economy seems bad only because it has expanded so much in the last decades. But should would we want to have missed out on the this growth just so that we will not have to face the steep decline now?
To: SY
“The decline in our economy seems bad only because it has expanded so much in the last decades. But should would we want to have missed out on the this growth just so that we will not have to face the steep decline now?”
What talking you? Are you saying that when the economy was booming in the last few years, only Singapore has benefited? Almost every country has seen economic boom and especially in 2007.
And of course if there is money to be made, we should make them. However, it is all due to Sg gahment’s credit (which they claim for higher pay)? And when shit happens, we got to depend on luck. What BS?
To tell us to depend on luck is definitely unbecoming of our leaders. As many had enlightened, our leaders manage the country as well as the citizens, it is akin to senior management in a corporation, can such managements tell their shareholders to depend on luck ? Was there such precedent ?
Five decades of positive growths; how much of it did/do the citizens get to share ?
Why is Central Provident Fund becoming heartaches and headaches to citizens ?
There will always be some who live comfortably due to hardworks or windfalls, but please empathize with the masses who complain because they are been exploited in good and bad times.
Many of gemamis’ latest posts in TOC are eye openers, very reasonably and rationally put across. Kudos to gemami !
patriot
Many governments also did well in their policies, but our press never mention them. Only the bad things were mentioned.
FYI the home ownership in Taiwan is more than 90%. Hong Kong 80+%.
Ours I recall is about 90%. But th PAP and the controlled Straits Times never compare these and heir ministers are not paid millions.
People are angry because now with internet and a linked global economy, they know the press and the government is not telling a lot of things to make themselves always look good.
42)SY
Your logic may be a little…mmm…don’t mind me…wrong. Without consumption from both internal and external market, do you think there will be a need for production? if nobody want to consume, why will they want to produce. it is just like “which comes first, chicken or egg”. when our export market has no need for our export, the likely way out is for our own people to consume in order to produce. if both sides don’t consume, why do we produce…it is a cycle and your simple logic may have miss it…what goes around comes around…
“I think that doling out money almost never works.” perhaps you will like to look at taiwanese stimulus plan…however, of course, i can guess you will be saying that they have natural resources and 20 million population.
Yes, more money chasing the same goods will cause inflation. Inflation occur when there is only a fix amount of goods for an increasing amount of money my dear SY, but right now, do you think there will be more money coming from external markets for our products? and do you think people will spend every single cent that the gahmen give out? until it will cause inflation? no, they will save up too, and these will contribute into part of the equation (CIGXM).Let me put it this way…if both external market and internal market doesn’t buy anything, it will be impossible to break out of the deadlock, and there is no way our export market will purchase our export due to the level of economy. so how are you going to boost export to stimulate growth? try to think of it….you have a shop, but your customers have no money and isn’t willing to buy…you give a big discount, but they are still having trouble and can’t afford…do you think they will buy even with the discount?
“We have to tide through these with our reserves and wait for a recovery, which must come” The recovery will come, and yes, we must tide over…however, it will be a while before we see the tide of recovery appear, and during this period, there will be more job loses and people in need….furthermore, with an ongoing tide of negative stimulus, it may be sometime before we have a break.
“But should would we want to have missed out on the this growth just so that we will not have to face the steep decline now?”
No my dear SY…you seem to have miss our point…it is precisely this model of growth that leads to the sharp decline now…and if the exact same model is been practiced after this, it will happen yet again when everything rolls out of control. what we want here, is a shift to another state, whereby growth may be slower then the current model, however the impact of future recession will be lesser. Just like what one of our dear friend here say *sorry, i forgot who was it* we are not trying to stop an export model, we are just trying to minimise our dependencies on it. I have always like this phrase SY “The paradoxes of success is that it set the stage for failure.” if you keep depending on your past success formula, you are awaiting for your own failure.
WOW this is great for homosexual in Singapore, the aim of turning Singapore into a country of gay and lesbian is getting closer. Soon man can choose to marry man and woman with woman.
Whatever happened to our “Golden Yrs”, our 1st class government with out of the world salaries? Ultimately it depends on the element of luck to get our economy out of this mess which the elites with their pay should have avoided. That said, we can get any gambler to lead us. It is no use talking about probables, we have paid them to guarantee us a decent economic growth, if they can’t deliver, jolly well get out. That was the implicit deal with S’poreans that should be honoured. Be men of honour then, S’poreans are not so docile anymore.
We the citizens are paying him and his team of ministers hundreds of millions of dollars a year to base our economy on Lucky or Not Lucky?
Is he treating our economy like TOTO or 4-D – to be based on Luck?
Moreover, what he said is just repeating what his father had said some months ago. Where is the originality? Why so fond of repeating what his father has already said? Come on, man. It is time to walk on your own without having crutches!
Please lead! Not follow!
If dared to take the world’s top pay, you had better come out with MIRACLES! We expect nothing less!
economy recover does not mean everyone benefit. some do end up worse….