Thursday, June 25, 2009 9:45
Let the Games continue!
In Main Stories, Top Story • 909 views • 24 Comments
Ravi Philemon / Head, Current Affairs Desk
While we should be concerned with the spread of the H1N1 virus, we should not overreact. Cancelling or delaying the Asian Youth Games is a knee-jerk reaction that is uncalled for.
WITH ONE Filipino footballer and four members of the Hong Kong side having been infected with the Influenza A virus, and another twenty members from Philippines’ football contingent having been quarantined at the Aloha Loyang Resort since Sunday, calls have come from certain quarters to postpone the inaugural Asian Youth Games (AYG).
(Photo: No reason to let H1N1 dampen the mood of the games. Courtesy of WhyOhGee / Creative Commons)
Is H1N1 so highly contagious that such calls are justified, or is H1N1 a low severity virus which has made some people to go into ‘panic-mode’ and overreact?
Although Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan recently announced that the coming months will be challenging for Singapore and that we need to gear up for “the community spread phase of the outbreak”, the H1N1 virus itself has so far proven to be a wimpy virus.
“What the epidemiologists are seeing now with this particular strain…is that the severity of the disease, the severity of the flu — how sick you get — is not stronger than regular seasonal flu”, said US Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano at a recent press briefing at the headquarters of the Federal Emergency Management Administration.
She added that officials are now “cautiously optimistic that this particular strain will not be more severe than a normal seasonal flu outbreak”.
H1N1 not that dangerous
The virulence of this strain of H1N1, so far seems to be well below that of routine seasonal flu. In fact, Mexican data shows that the so-called RO (or reproductive number) for H1N1 is about 1.4, which means that each person who acquires the virus infects about 1.4 other people.
When compared to the dreaded 1918 influenza pandemic which had an RO of around 3, the current ‘pandemic’ is certainly not a terrifying contagion at all.
Even the World Health Organisation (WHO) which officially declared the outbreak to be a pandemic on June 11 stressed that the new designation was a result of the global spread of the virus and not indicative its severity.
The case fatality rate (CFR) of this ‘pandemic’ strain is estimated at 0.4%, whereas the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) had a CFR estimate of between 14 and 15 percent.
Dr Anne Schuchat, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s interim deputy director for science and public health program, said that even the best estimates suggest “that the fatality [rate] is likely a little bit higher than seasonal influenza, but not necessarily substantially higher”.
While very little is known about the medical conditions of those that died in Mexico after contracting H1N1, evidence from those hospitalised in the US after being infected with H1N1 suggests that almost all of those cases had complications from other chronic illness or conditions.
Sufficient measures taken
The Ministry of Health in this instance seems to have done more than is sufficiently necessary to counter the “threat” of this low-severity virus. Such a low-risk infection surely only demands common sense precautions of hygiene, like washing the hands thoroughly and regularly with soap and water and turning away from a person and covering your nose and mouth with tissue paper when you have to cough or sneeze, and so on.
Drastic measures such as those implemented during the SARS crisis and calls to call off or even postpone the AYG are absolutely “knee-jerk” reactions will be totally unjustified.
The AYG will allow our youth players to use this chance to benchmark their performances against other youth teams from Asian nations. The Games will also provide Singapore with an opportunity to test organisational and logistical capabilities in advance of the 2010 Summer Youth Olympics, which Singapore will be hosting.
The uninterrupted hosting of such an event means more than bringing in much needed tourism dollars in this economic downturn; it also means giving our youngsportsmen and sportswomen in Singapore a much needed opportunity to gauge themselves against the best in Asia, and in so doing prepare themselves to do us all proud in the 2010 Summer Youth Olympics.
The words of Datuk Dr. Jegathesan, chairman of the Olympic Council of Asia’s medical committee ring true. He said: “the precautionary measures taken by the organisers [of the Asian Youth Games] are quite convincing”, as there are certainly no serious indications that there is a need to cancel or postpone the games.
The H1N1 or some other ‘flu’ will always continue to shadow a global and cosmopolitan city like Singapore. While it is always good to have an excellent business continuity plan, we cannot be held hostage by such “crisis”. While targeted control measures are taken to contain such crisises, life must continue as normally as possible.
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24 Comments
SotongBall
Gilbert Goh
Australia already has 3 death the past week.
I dont know when the first fatality will hit Singapore.
I advocate caution here as we are unsure what and how the virus will turn on us later.
randomnessinmind
Better Safe Than Sorry.
You don’t want a death here then complain Health Minister not doing his job. Just like the Rojak incident.
And I would never call any Virus that had fatality a “Wimpy Virus”
I just hope you don’t eat your words if a pandemic (touch wood) occurs.
A Tan
Let’s see what happens.
Let the medicos decide.
lim
I have 2 young children (<5years old) and they are in the high risk group. I definitely DO NOT WANT them to catch the virus…
Babu Bengalis
Lets come together and rally behind the Youth Olypmics and our PAP MP Teo Ser Luck and help them succeed which help all succeed.
Bravo TOC! Bravo Ravi for this article.
Morvius
The reason why there is so much hoo-hah is because of the fear of a mutation. It is inevitable that there will be another pandemic ot hit. And chances are it will be more deadly than even the Spanish Flu. So there is certainly no such thing as over-reacting.
aygee
Those that have high risk groups, then keep your children at home, and make sure the people who handle them are not sick.
Please dont get sucked into the media sensationalism, the money and politics behind global healthcare.
50 million cases of dengue around the world every year, with 2.5 to 5% mortality. Any headlines? right now, 52,000 cases of H1N1 reported in 100 countries with 230-odd deaths. 0.44%.
Aus has 3 deaths. out of about 3000. 0.1%.
HK did a great HK Rugby 7s right smack in the middle of SARS. did it result in million of deaths?
get a grip, people.
Morvius
@aygee
I agree. However, dengue does not transmit via human to human transmission. And it is entirely possible to reduce it without the need of quarantine. Of course reduce by how much is the problem. I doubt a mass extermination of Anopholes Mosquitoes is possible.
I agree with 5) lim. I think we don’t dismiss this flu totally. People in high risk group e.g. pregnant women, very young kids can be vulnerable to a serious infection.
But still, common sense hygiene better for all rather than knee-jerk panic.The government is already shown that it is in control. Any more and it might start panic.
David
The best solution is to stop everyone from going out to watch the
AYG since we do not know what is the actual data of people got infected with the flu here. The last I heard from the news was it has infected more than 100 of people.
As we all know, Singapore has a very compact populations of more than 4mil in this little dot, it is unlikely that H1N1 will stop with such conducive and closely knitted human network given to the virus.
SZ
The best thing is when i saw on some local paper saying that it has past the tipping point…how “true” is that?
doctorwho
Money talks louder until some1 dies … thats the ugly truth.
Angelina
Life has to go on. I can’t imagine LTA (in UK) cancelling Wimbledon (tennis tournament). I will be devastated! The best you can do is to live healthily so that your immunity is maximised. To those who have young children, make sure they eat plenty of fresh fruits and veges, exercise, relax, have fresh air and get enough sleep. These also help nourish the brain. Take it easy as far as education is concerned, and your child will be more receptive and learn more besides keeping healthy.
Aids Dengue Malaria
These are more serioud health risks.
so how much reaction given to these?
should be more attention given to these right?
How about Alzheimers, Diabetes which strike many and is common?
How about sexual communicable diseases happening more frequently?
While H1N1 is health risk, what about those existing ones which has no cure also?
This world is ironic.
Morvius
It’s already 300+ and counting. Anyway, I agree that those health risks you mentioned are important and have been around longer (and killed a lot more too). But measures are being made to reduce them (I hope). I am sure researchers and scientists are continuously trying to find a cure for those. And those health ailments you mentioned, well it cannot be spread as easily as airborne viruses and are less virulent.
Anyway the H1N1 is given so much attention now because it is new. And SARs is still rather fresh in our minds. Just pray that H1N1 remains in the mild form it is now.
Anyway I agree that life must go on. However, I doubt that the reason the AYG is will go on is due to that reasoning. More likely it’s because of $$.
@doctorwho
Unfortunately, you are right. But oh well, that’s the way the world is right?
aygee
most importantly, AYG puts Singapore on the global stage. We need it.
And if we handle it professionally, no over-reactions, showing concern for all involved, taking precautions, what better way to showcase ourselves.
Thats exactly how HK handled the Rugby 7s during SARS. Everyone enjoyed themselves still, event was a success, HK Govt, Sports Dept and Health Dept received kudos for managing everything well.
Angelina
Ravi,
Pls write an article about Spore’s lack of enthusiasm in sports. Wimbledon, one of tennis biggest tournament is on (prize money of almost $2 mil for the champion alone) but there is little to zero coverage in MSM. The only big coverage is football and look at the growing interest in football. So why not treat the other sports the same.
I think the comparison using the basic reproductive number is rather misleading. Reproductive number is defined as the average number of further infections caused by one infected entity (or simply, how many people on average an infected person will spread the disease to) in the absence of any countermeasures, vaccines or cures.
It therefore tells us, mathematically, the sustainability of a disease when “left to the wild”. However, when comparisons between diseases, such as the H1N1 flu with the 1918 flu pandemic, one has to exercise caution. This is because there are many other factors involved such as mode of transmission in which a single number cannot capture.
More info: http://www.fluwiki.info/pmwiki.php?n=Science.DiseaseTransmissionPrimer#repro
The Singapore Daily » Blog Archive » Weekly Roundup: Week 26
[...] Pandemic Gold Medal? [Thanks WY Whoo] – Gerald Giam’s Blog: Surviving (suspected) H1N1 – TOC: Let the Games continue! – My Little Corner: High Risk Group for H1N1 – The boy who knew too much: H1N1 flu and personal [...]
Ang Lim Buat
If we help make this YOG a success, i hope our beloved PAP MP also get a pay raise. I am a strong supporter. Lets come together and rally behind our PAP.
aygee
To Angelina comment #18,
its not because there is a lack of interest in sports. Its about lack of sponsors.
these are hard times right now. the amount of money spent, versus the number of people sponsors can target, it all matters.
But back to YOG, yes, the show should go on. Just take extra precautions. Educate everyone – in the country, and those visiting.
Angelina
Hi aygee @22
Yes, that’s true, the lack of funding is major problem. What is our FILTHY RICH Govt doing about it then? The sports school is a stupid idea and a waste of money. Furthermore, it will be seen as a school for academic failures.
Young people or children have to be inspired and also if parents can see the ‘usefulness’ of it or end results, there will be more interest, I mean serious interest as a career. Each year, Wimbledon brings in lots of money from paying spectators (corporates and individuals), sponsorship and broadcasting.
mice is nice
when there are organisation like STTA airing dirty laundry al interest die down liao…
-.-”
“The case fatality rate (CFR) of this ‘pandemic’ strain is estimated at 0.4%, whereas the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) had a CFR estimate of between 14 and 15 percent.”
The CFR for seasonal flu is at 0.05% (WHO). It is definitely not in the same league as SARS but more serious than the seasonal flu. Since there are “sufficient actions” taken, I reckon we should not panic and observe the situation.