Gerald Giam
Asean’s policy of non-interference in member states’ internal affairs has been taken to the extreme to mean closing a blind eye to just about everything Burma does.
Dr Desmond Ball, a professor of strategic and defence studies at Australian National University (ANU), recently published an investigative report that claimed that Burma is secretly building a nuclear reactor and plutonium facilities with the help of North Korea, and aims to possess a nuclear bomb by 2014.
The report, published in the Bangkok Post and reported by AFP, the Sydney Morning Herald and the Times of India, was a result of a two-year investigation based on radio intercepts and interviews with two defectors close to the clandestine operation. Among the revelations in the report were that there is a programme to train up to 1,000 personnel to form a “nuclear battalion”. The country reportedly now has 10 uranium mines, two uranium refineries and two nuclear reactor sites. These reactors could be capable of being operational after 2014 and producing one bomb a year, every year.
In a possibly related incident in June this year, a North Korean ship, the Kang Nam, was shadowed by US warships on its way from North Korea to Burma. The ship was suspected of carrying weaponry, missile parts or nuclear material. As it would have had to pass through Singapore en route to Burma, Singapore would have been expected to act against the ship when it entered Singapore waters.
This led the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to issue a rather revealing statement that “Singapore takes seriously the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, their means of delivery and related materials” and that “(if) the allegation is true, Singapore will act appropriately”.
It is unlikely that MFA would have issued a statement of this nature had it not been given credible information — probably from the US — that the ship contained weapons of mass destruction.
In July, Japanese police arrested a North Korean and two Japanese for allegedly trying to illegally export to Burma a magnetic measuring device that could be used to develop missiles.
These revelations, if true, should be a startling development for all countries in Asia, and in Southeast Asia in particular.
Implications of a nuclear Myanmar
What does a nuclear-capable Burma mean to its neighbours in Asean, the regional grouping of Southeast Asian nations which includes Singapore?
For sure, this would change the dynamics of its relationships with both Asean and major powers dramatically. The military junta that is ruling the country will suddenly become a real security threat to its neighbours. Even if they never use their nuclear arsenal, they would have acquired the ultimate bargaining tool to extract concessions from all the major powers in the world.
To predict what could happen, we need to look no further than North Korea, the country that is allegedly assisting Burma in this endeavour. North Korea first started pursuing nuclear technology as early as the 1950s. Their efforts were stepped up when the US, Japan and South Korea established a military alliance in 1965, and when they realised that their chief ally, the Soviet Union, might not live up to their defence treaty obligations. This culminated in their first nuclear test in 2006 and subsequent one in May this year.
The nuclear tests sent the major powers scrambling to engage North Korea through the Six Party Talks, which included the US and China, the country’s main international ally. From these talks, the North was successful in extracting concessions such as obtaining fuel aid.
Could this be Burma’s plan as well?
Unlike North Korea, none of Burma’s neighbours has a defence alliance with its main enemy, the US. In fact, all its Asean neighbours have signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation with each other and Burma. This makes it much less an urgency to defend itself from neighbouring aggressors.
Nevertheless, the junta’s paranoia is easy to underestimate. When a US battleship approached Burma to provide aid to the hundreds of thousands of victims of Cyclone Nargis last year, the junta reportedly thought the US was planning to invade them, and refused the aid that could have alleviated much suffering for its people.
Asean’s reaction
Asean’s reaction to this report has been silence, as expected. The grouping has demonstrated its impotence throughout its dealings with the recalcitrant Burma over the past 10 years. Asean’s policy of non-interference in member states’ internal affairs has been taken to the extreme to mean closing a blind eye to just about everything Burma does.
However, until now, Burma has not been seen as a security threat in the region. Would a nuclear armed Myanmar awaken Asean to the ticking time bomb in their neighbourhood? It certainly ought to.
Asean nations have a heavy responsibility to their own people to do all they can to prevent Burma from enriching their uranium into weapons grade material, and developing the means to deliver a nuclear weapon.
While this appears to be a long way off, Asean should not wait until Burma conducts its first nuclear test before acting. By then, it will be impossible to turn back the clock, as the US, Japan and South Korea are soon discovering with North Korea.
The time to step up the pressure on the junta is now, before they reach the point of no return.
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Read also:
Burma nuclear suspicions rise in light of N Korea – Huffington Post.
Burma’s missile dream – The Irrawaddy.
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More pictures of Burma’s tunnels by The Democratic Voice of Burma:
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- DNA suggests China Chinese originated from Southeast Asia
- Free Burma! International bloggers to support freedom for Burma on Oct 4th
- ASEAN urged to support call for UN COI into Burma
- Co-ordinated, carrot-and-stick approach needed for Burma
- Asia Snapshot: 11-17 September 2009
We must be careful of Burma, we must not pressure them whether they have nuclear or no nuclear. We must be smart in diplomatic talks, talking in a civil manner could help Burma strive to become a democratic country. Pressure, toughen sanctions is not helping them either, they will eventually felt worried and they could stab us from the back. m
Looks like usa also cannot do anything to north korea?
What can we do?
but thanks for reporting the news.
Does CNN knows already?
lets all countries go nuke, then every1 is equal.
I am skeptical.
Before this report, no one else including IAEA and the US, have indicate any concerns on Myanmar intention to get nuclear weapons. (as far as i know, but i am open to being corrected! ;) A report based on two testimonies is important, but should also be further corroborated with other sources to establish a clearer picture. This is especially so, when not all experts (as the author pointed out) agree on the facts.
And to add on to that, this article is full of conjecture and speculation, drawing imaginary links to north korea with statements such as “To predict what could happen, we need to look no further than North Korea”, “unlikely that MFA would have issued a statement….”
And probably the last point will be the need to differentiate between having nuclear power plants and nuclear weapons. Yes, nuclear power technology and the like can be used to build nuclear weapons. But the current problem is while one can lead to the other, the former is legal and the latter is illegal.
If we stop countries from having nuclear power technologies just because they have the potential to be nuclear weapons, then no countries should have nuclear power in the first place.
It is a matter of strategic/double-standard (depends on ur stand) politics that the US makes noise about Iran’s legal nuclear power program and says nothing about other countries getting nuclear power– when everyone had the possibility of converting their programs.
In the same way, we should be worried of all countries in SEA getting nuclear power (weapons)- including Indonesia who has openly announced its plans for nuclear power. Why single out Myanmar only?
I can perfectly understand if people want to rally support to pressure based on human rights, democratic grounds. But if we want to throw realpolitik and security into the argument, we have to make sure it holds water. My two cents worth.
Like RW, I am skeptical too. There is a lot of speculation without firm evidence here.
Incidentally, Iran has the right to build nuclear power station, as it is a signatory of the Non-Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NNPT). This treaty allows signatory countries to build nuclear plants for peaceful purposes. The irony if it is that US is a signatory itself, so why is it barking at Iran?
This story on Myanmar appears nothing more than war drum beating by western powers, just like what US and Europe are doing to Iran. Only difference is that it is established that Iran has that right to build a nuclear plant under the NNPT, while I believe Myanmar is not a signatory. But the warmongers are still barking at Iran anyway.
However, the biggest hypocrticrisy of it all is that US, the country with the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, and the ONLY country to have used that on innocent ivilians not once but twice, is barking the loudest.
Do you know exactly what is means for Burma to go nuclear and it’s implications? (If that is the case) That if it falls into the wrong hands (terrorist), that it would find it’s way down (through Th’land and M’sia) and then we are all dead!! Imagine being held to randsom to convert to islamic state OR ELSE one touch of a button.
No need to blame TCH or WKS etc.
==END OF OUR SAD JOURNEY==
Good thing !
singapore can buy a nuclear bomb from burma
End of ns
[ However, the biggest hypocrticrisy of it all is that US, the country with the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, and the ONLY country to have used that on innocent ivilians not once but twice, is barking the loudest. ]
The greater hypocrisy is Israel has 200 warheads and the US and its allies pretends it doesn’t.
Responsible nuclear powers and possibility of juntas owning nuclear weapons are two different kettle of fish all together.
This increases the insecurity complex in the rest of ASEAN, if it is true and comes to fruition under the current junta. Once the fears are flagged, it is hard for the country concerned to fully ameliorate those concerns.
If possible, most of us do not want a impoverished, unstable state owning nuclear weapons. We have to live in the real world, not a world of theories about fariness and a presumptive inalienable right to own these things if those states are currently incapable of looking out for her own people.
We do not need a situation where nuclear fuel is stolen for terror purposes because of poor and lax security or complicit behavior by “turned” individuals in the nuclear infrastructure of those kinds of states.
Why must all countries in the world be dictated by the US and Isreal, UK and EU, and the puppet UN Secretary General to have nuclear energy/weapon or not?
Why this monopoly of power by the Whitemen and hypocrisy of double/triple standards?
Both Israel and Japan are secretly producing and hiding nuclear weapons, while Pakistan and Brazil can openly have them. Why?
No la, they building circle line la with SMRT help. Looks like the underground tunnel next to Park Mall. Liddat good for Singapore businessmen mah. Next time they go there can use Easilink get from place to place. Dunno will stop by ASSK house though.
10)
Both Israel and Japan are secretly producing and hiding nuclear weapons, while Pakistan and Brazil can openly have them. Why?
Robust infrastructure for Israel, Japan and Brazil. Face up to the reality of the complex global political landscape. Even now, people are fearful of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands.
All talk of equality will ring hollow if one irresponsible and pariah state possess them. And like it or not, Singapore is part of the “western” orbit in many aspects.
It can be argued that our growth and affluence was in large part attributed to a Cold War global order that allowed us to thrive.
#12 and others..
“if one irresponsible and pariah state possess them”
I think #12 sums up the sentiment against Myanmar having nuclear weapons (and hence should be deprived of nuclear power too)
The question i have is who/what defines “irresponsible and pariah”?
Basicically, it boils down to politics, posturing, perspective and propaganda.
To the north koreans, US having nukes near them is an extremely uncomfortable thought. After all, US have invaded Iraq and other places. In all honesty, i will not blame them if they think US is “irresponsible and pariah”. But of course, that is one country’s opinion. And they do not have the same inlfuence on world opinion as US.
I am open to Myanmar being classified as “irresponsible and pariah”. But we should (i) have a clear criteria to decide who falls within that category and (ii) treat everyone who falls within the same catagory in the same manner.
The current state of the world makes it into a political circus- i do not like you, i classify you as “irresponsible and pariah” and i get my friends to follow suit. If I like you (think Israel), you are ok, even if you are doing the same things as the N.Koreans and threatening or worse, invading neighbours from time to time.
It is crazy to run things based on someone’s like and dislikes. While i can understand people do not like the government in Myanmar esp after the jail extension, we shld refrain from falling into the same hypocritical, arbitrary attitude that some major powers have now.
WoW!!!
If this is really true, Burma will certainly rise to become BIG Brother of south-east asia.
The once might SAF will be just “peanuts” to the junta. Who cares about our F-16, F-15 apaches and when they can just drop a bomb and flatten us if they are not happy with our attitude. They are not Malaysia hor.
Law,
dun worry. Burma’s nuclear technology from North Korea and Iran lao-pok-pok. Singapore very small. If they want to hantum us, sure mis-aim end up kerna JB. Then lagi sian no more pirated dvds.
All supposed hypocrisy and double-standards aside, the fact is that a nuclear-armed Burma is, not to put too fine a point on it, a hugely unstable motley band of raving tinpot dictators. With The Bomb. About a thousand kilometres north.
Does this, I don’t know, strike anyone as a wee bit unnerving? Even if they have no plans to lob nuclear warheads at us (which would be silly, since their chieftains get their medical treatment here) we should still consider the following scenarios:
1. Junta tests nukes, gets it wrong, fallout drifts southward. Whoops! Everyone has cancer.
2. Junta gets annoyed with another country and tosses a nuke their way. Whoops! Looks like they were nuclear-armed too, and retaliated. And so on. Cue cancer for everyone.
3. Junta feeling the pinch after spending a few years’ GNP on a nuclear programme. Junta decides to sell off the odd nuke, cash terms, no questions asked. Whoops! Sold it to Mas Selamat’s vengeful spirit, Keppel Harbour gets vaporized.
4. Their test reactors go critical because they used mud and sticks to build the containment facilities. Cancer again.
5. Junta collapses due to silly. Even more unpleasant people take over, and launch nukes at us. Nice knowing you guys.
6. Junta is a dick to another nuclear power, say, India. Said nuclear power turns Burma to glass. MUTANTS ROAM THE EARTH AND YOU MUST WEAR A BIKER JACKET WITH ONLY ONE SLEEVE (cancer was getting repetitive).
It is incredibly easy for countries to get a nuclear weapon.
Just look for this guy called AQ Khan. He was responsible for Pakistan’s nuclear program. He was in a large way responsible for spreading it to Iran and North Korea. He was going to give it to Libya but Libya chickened out.
You just need lots of land and a few hundred million dollars to spare. No problem. States acquiring nuclear weapons – not far fetched at all. All it takes is a few PhDs and a cookbook.
Myanmar is unlikely to develop a nuclear programme as the military-run country already has enough domestic problems to overcome, Singapore’s Foreign Minister George Yeo said Sunday. “I can’t believe that a nuclear programme is high up on their list of priorities… They have enough problems of their own,” Yeo said in response to a question at the World Economic Forum on East Asia.
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Singapore_Sees_Myanmar_Nuclear_Program_As_Unlikely_999.html
Let’s face it, those countries silent over Myanmar’s military junta’s atrocities are doing it, for a large part, I believe, for one form of monetary gain or another. They hide behind this laughable veil of “non-interference” as its sounds a whole lot better than “hey, he’s my trading partner – I don’t care how badly he treats his household”.
And there’s the rub – so long as monetary gains are a priority, any other arguement can be cast aside with ease and conscience muffled. There are many I know who actually hope Myanmar becomes a member of the nuclear club as they feel, just like making arms (and refusing to listen to pleas to clamp down on lucrative arms-related businesses like the production of anti-personnel mines), someday, it’ll come round and bite you.
And when Myanmar becomes yet another North Korea and goes round blackmailing its neighbours, hurting their interests in the process, these same friends of mine would really love to see what those who allowed it to happen will be able to do.
And Singapore is going to be another Burma in the making.
Who says a problematic Myanmar cannot develop a nuclear program? Does not North Korea prove that point already? Their people can be left to starve while they channelled most of the country resources into their armed forces.
While i dun see a reason why they should nuke us but do we have a say on the negotiating table now that our neighbour is a nuclear power?
If our relationship is not cordial, will we be threatened? Can SAF be a deterrence then if it is no longer the “mightiest” in the region? Or will we have to “suck up ($$)” to them as we have done to US.
To add on again. For all the technologies that our country can buy to upgrade our military arsenal, the worst thing that can happen to us is our neighbours to go on the road of being a nuclear power. While our neighbours can maintain a nuclear facility, where can we build one in Singapore? Jurong Island? It probably take 1/4 of a nuclear bomb to put us into history and next time people can learn about us in textbooks.
Quote:
“Singapore’s Foreign Minister George Yeo said Sunday. “I can’t believe that a nuclear programme is high up on their list of priorities… They have enough problems of their own,” Yeo said in response to a question at the World Economic Forum on East Asia.” Unquote.
Such reasoning to help ward off any suspicion on the intent of the Burmese Military Junta is not only stupid but harmful to the rest of the world.
Didn’t the US, China, USSR, Israel, Brazil, Pakistan, India, France and even North Korea developed their nuclear programs during a time when each and everyone of them were having lots of internal (as well as external) problems?
What the hell is a highly educated elite scholar-cum-military-general Foreign Minister trying to do? He thinks other national leaders are dumb and stupid?
Now asian countries are building their own nukes, if all these are not taken seriously, be prepared to see another war erupting among us in time to come. It just takes one, yes just “ONE” idiot man who is hunger for wealth and power to push the button, and thats IT!
Always look on the bright side lah
Good lah. Since burma and singapore good good fren, next time singapore can import nuclear bomb from burma, then burma can buy standard weapons
accessories from singapore lah.
Maybe the N.korea nuclear techno half past six 1, accidentally triggerred the bomb. then all the general, junta all kena wiped out lah.
hmm i thought singapore govt have a close relation with the junta? all those blood money and all..those that are not reported by pap press holdings