Leong Sze Hian
Despite a slight increase in GDP in the third quarter of this year, Singapore’s labour market, as well as the earnings and productivity of resident workers have not recovered.
A report released yesterday by the Ministry of Manpower reveals a surprising trend – it seems that PMETs and degree holders were among the hardest hit by the poor job market in the period from September 2008 to the same time this year, even more so than residents with secondary education.
Both degree holders and secondary-school educated residents – which include Singaporeans and Permanent Residents (PRs) — registered above-average increases in unemployment rate with the former increasing by 1.67 times while the later by 1.58 times, said the Labour Market Third Quarter 2009 Report.
Mature residents aged 40 and over also posted larger increase in unemployment rate over the year than those in their 30s or younger. Mature residents made up about half (49% or 41,000) of the resident job seekers in September this year, up from 2008 (45% or 25,300). In fact, the number of mature resident job seekers had increased by 15,700, or 62 percent, compared to a year ago.
Perhaps the older or more educated you are, the harder it was to get a job.
SPUR ineffective for PMETs?
The share of Professionals, Managers, Executives, and Technicians (PMETs) among workers made redundant rose from 43% in Q2 09 to 51% in the third quarter, overtaking production & related workers (34%) and clerical, sales & service workers (15%) as the leading occupational group among redundant workers.
What this may suggest is that the call to re-train and upgrade skills and education by the government, spearheaded by the Skills Programme for Upgrading and Resilience (SPUR) initiative, might not have worked very well from the perspective of those who upgrade to become PMETs, since their redundancy rate is now the highest.
Slightly over one in three of the residents made redundant were in their 30s (34%) or degree holders (36%), disproportionately higher than their representation in the workforce (26% and 27% respectively).
This is in spite of the data in the report that “PMETs made up the largest share of vacancies (15,400 or 44%) in September this year, followed by production & transport operators, cleaners & labourers (9,900 or 29%) and clerical, sales & service workers (9,500 or 27%).”
So, although job vacancies available were the highest for PMETs, they had the highest redundancy rate and the largest increase in the unemployment rate.
The re-employment rate — those who were re-employed within six months of retrenchment — was quite low (37.3%) for those above 50 years old but even worse at 44.4% for degree holders.
While it was indicated in the report that Singapore’s real GDP grew by 0.6% in September this year from a year ago, following three consecutive quarters of contraction. At first glance, the growth might be seen as a sign that the economy might be showing the green shoots of recovery, but a deeper analysis reveals otherwise.
Overall labour market weak
Looking at the overall labour market, a rise in unemployment of 0.4% among residents June to September this year was registered. In the report, the rise is attributed to residents who had deferred their job search and pursued improvement courses amid the difficult job market.
The seasonally adjusted overall (which includes foreigners) unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.4% in September this year from 3.3% a quarter ago. The resident labour force rate – consisting of Singaporeans and PRs — increased to 5.0% in September this year. This followed the decline from 4.8% in March to 4.6% in June.
However, the question of how the resident unemployment rate could increase from June to September remains unanswered. Workers undergoing training, or are not actively seeking jobs for more than six months, are left out of the unemployment statistics.
So, are we saying that these residents have now decided to start searching for jobs again because the job market is no longer perceived as difficult? Are lesser residents are pursuing courses?
Perhaps these factors could have led to the worsening of the unemployment rate, but there is no way to know for sure.
The report mentioned that “nevertheless, the unemployment rates were still below the peak (overall: 4.8%;resident: 6.2%) experienced in September 2003 due to the SARS outbreak.” However, this is akin to saying that it’s getting worse, but it’s not as bad as the worst ever! Some consolation for Singaporeans who are unemployed!
In fact, the seasonally adjusted figure for unemployed residents was 100,300 in September, higher than the 91,500 in June this year, which is around the time the recession began.
Earnings and income down while living expenses go up
Despite the good news in GDP growth, labour productivity fell over the year by 0.7% from the third quarter of last year, and nominal earnings – which do not take inflation into account — decreased over the year by 3.0% over the same period of time. After adjusting for negative inflation however, the decline in real earnings was 2.6%, deeper than the contraction in the preceding quarter
While earnings have continued to fall, HDB property taxes, HDB new flat prices, school bus fees, and other expenses have gone up.
In fact, real earnings have fallen for six consecutive quarters by a cumulative 17.9%, reversing almost all the gains in earnings for the last three years or so, in the first quarter of 2007.
While the educated and the older workers seem to be the hardest hit by the recession, the unemployment rate for cleaners, labourers and related workers was still the highest across all sectors in June 2009 at 8.3 percent, said the MOM’s Workforce 2009 report released earlier this year.
The above figures fly in the face of the argument that since Singaporeans do not want such jobs, foreign workers are needed to fill up the vacancies. If this is indeed the case, then why is it that the unemployment rate was the highest for this category?
What this may mean is that when residents who worked as cleaners and labourers lost their jobs and started looking for similar ones, they failed because younger foreign workers have generally replaced them in the food-courts and the airport toilets.
It seems that living conditions for the worst-off in Singapore have not improved significantly.
According to my calculations using data from the Department of Statistics’ Household Expenditure Survey Report (HES) released on 2 December 2009, the bottom 20% of households’ income declined by 0.3% in nominal terms from 1998 to 2008, and the 21st to 40th quintile households’ income increased by only 0.9% in real terms —accounting for inflation.
Marrying the latest MOM Labour Market report which has data until September this year, with the HES which has data until 2008, we can surmise that about 40% of households may hardly have had any real increase in income over the last 10 years or so.
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Related posts:
- Degree-holders easier to get retrenched. True?
- Economy recovering, but labour statistics getting worse?
- Jobseeking for PMETs — handle with care
- The disappearing wet market
- A justice system to protect the strong or the weak?
@101) jiangbao on December 23rd, 2009 11.58 am
“….But was voted back in at a later time.. Your point?…”
Point = any party can’t rely forever on its past achievements, riding on previous reputation. Fat cats grow lazy.
“….They want to bump the population to 6 million for reasons still unknown to me. Why do we need 6 million?…”
Labor is a cheap, dirty, faster way to boost GDP now that FDI isn’t flowing in as before. Of course, capital could be injected locally but somehow our monies is tied up somewhere. A side effect of this is our productivity, as pointed out by #102) Zefly (aka Joshua Chiang) on December 23rd, 2009 4.11 pm. If wages is a measure of productivity, then our PM is like 5x more productive than Obama.
What’s your view?
@ Zefly (aka Joshua Chiang)
“We need two people to produce the same output that a person in a developed country does.”
But evidently not in Australian where the union is more militant. Guess what? there it takes 5 persons to change a light bulb in govt offices. To change the light bulb four people will carry a person and then turn him around. :)
Where Singapore is evidently not productive is in the bedroom. That, plus the lost generation due to the grotesquely flawed “stop at two” campaign meant that we have no choice but to open the flood gates for foreign talents to come in.
There’s no such thing as no choice, Kent.
We can’t keep looking back and say yesterday’s policy is the sole reason for our current low replacement rate. The govt thinks it has done all it could to increase our local population rate, but all the efforts can do jack shit if they refuse to acknowledge that there are many aspects of life here that isn’t entirely conducive to having kids.
No one is saying close the doors to FTs, but the stop-gap measure is now seen as a pancea, and their easy and cheap availability has stopped giving companies here the incentive towards innovation and long-term solutions to improve productivity.
In the long run, the race to the bottom in terms of wages benefits no one.
[i]No one is saying close the doors to FTs, but the stop-gap measure is now seen as a pancea, and their easy and cheap availability has stopped giving companies here the incentive towards innovation and long-term solutions to improve productivity.[/i]
well?
the british government under the then new leadership of maggie thatcher 1st and foremost duties were to kick out ALL foreign talent workers when she assumed office on every vocation irregardless you are professional doctors or nurses..so forth…
every extension of work permits were bein scutinised by a new department named as Intelligence Section of the Home Ofdfice Immigration Department
my owned case was throughly investigate through the british embassy in singapore before every annual extention was approved…
@ Zefly (aka Joshua Chiang)
“There’s no such thing as no choice, Kent.”
Not always true.
I can cite two examples in Singapore which contradict what you claim. 1) the CPF Board has no choice but to invest our savings only in Singapore govt securities and 2) a young male Singapore citizen has no choice but to do national service if he is physically fit and wishes to remain a citizen.
As for “We can’t keep looking back and say yesterday’s policy is the sole reason for our current low replacement rate ” I am not saying that it does. What I said was that it meant that we need to open the flood gates to FT.
But you are right to say “that there are many aspects of life here that isn’t entirely conducive to having kids.” Low wages in the working class combined with high medical & housing costs are a toxic mix, which is anathema to population growth.
I also agree that the “easy and cheap availability has stopped giving companies here the incentive towards innovation and long-term solutions to improve productivity. In the long run, the race to the bottom in terms of wages benefits no one.”
In that respect, Singapore’s fate is sealed if it does not move up the value chain and flood the world with high-tech and innovative products like what South Korea is doing. Low value-added entreport trade is a relic of our colonial past when Britannia ruled the waves with mercantilism.
Our projected GDP growth for 2010 is about 5.5% (estimated) which is very optimistic but strip away the 7% GST, the COE, the car taxes, maid’s and foreign workers’ levies, our GDP would plumb beneath the water line.
Is it any wonder then that regressive taxes will continue to drive our GDP growth in the future sans any emergence of product innovation?
It is nice to hear that the economy is on recovering phase and soon this blame of PMETs being hit hardest will become unnecessary – and with the benefit of hindsight, it may seem somewhat childish.
//My Views
Of course, it is not childish when it hurts your pocket for a year.
As if whenever the economy recovers, all sectors will benefit immediately.
What a naive appreciation of economics!
Refer to (109) by [cat].
Let me tell you a story and you will know not every one thinks like you :
About 11 months ago, I had a chat with a 50 years old taxi driver. He was a VP with a bank and got retrenched. He could not get another job in the banking sector and he believed it was due to the presence of many highly qualified but younger foreign talents.
I asked him whether he was angry with the PAP Government? To my surprise, he said he got himself to blame for not able to compete with the younger foreign talents, and that he respected the PAP Government for having the courage to implement a policy that is painful but absolutely good for Singapore.
I must confess that I respect him. I believe no SIngapore minister can withhold his or her tears when facing this sensible and honest taxi driver (or ex-banker).
Your point has been answered. Period!
//My Views
For every one of this kind of stories you cook up, I can give you five other real life stories of Singaporeans being disadvantaged by the foreign policies of the Government:
About 3 years ago, I spoke to this local government who left the government service in search of greener pasture.
He was young and highly qualified but he could not find a simple position (professional one) in a bank or insurance company because all the junior managerial positions were taken up FT.
He wondered how this had happened when in other countries, those positions were reserved for locals. (There has to be a reason why; I let you find out)
Then there is this air pilot want to be who qualified overseas but when he applied for SIA, his application was not even considered because he was not 26.
When he asked why his PR friends from Malaysia who was 24 can make in it, he was not given an answer.
//He was a VP with a bank and got retrenched. He could not get another job in the banking sector and he believed it was due to the presence of many highly qualified but younger foreign talents.
Thank you for giving this great example. I have never heard of such a case overseas.
When this kind of thing happens overseas, the VP can at least get a teaching job in the local polys because he is so experienced. He needn’t drive a cab.
BTW, most professionals in foreign countries are appreciated because of their experience and practical knowledge more than youth and degrees, even in the US, UK or Europe, Japan.
Only in Singapore, because of Govt madness, we see this kind of absurd outcome.
//My views
//I must confess that I respect him. I believe no SIngapore minister can withhold his or her tears when facing this sensible and honest taxi driver (or ex-banker).
This must be a joke!
The pigs @ parliament were NEVER known to be compassionate.
We have a minister who told people off for asking 30++ dollars more for public assistance after the govt raised the GST all in the name of giving to the poor. Not to mention that he make 5 000 times more than that amount in a year.
We also have a minister who told us that it was a freak incident when a limping terrorist escaped from his prisons and he didn’t even consider the potential security issues to general populace that the escape meant.
We also have another minister who were not even bothered by the amount of damage a flooding incident that took place recently and he even banned a local commenter from supposedly making fun of him over this.
What a joke!
With the kind of insensitive and inane ministers we have in parliament, I am relieve that the ministers (if they bother to listen) are all laughing inside:
They will be asking : why can’t this guy teach?
//My views
//Your point has been answered. Period!
No you have not.
You have just proven my point.
Thank you!!!
My Views
post #108 on December 26th, 2009 4.00 am
////It is nice to hear that the economy is on recovering phase and soon this blame of PMETs being hit hardest will become unnecessary – and with the benefit of hindsight, it may seem somewhat childish.////
1) economic recovery will not bring a uniform benefit to all,
2) they were hit hard, if you do not learn from the past, you will make the same mistakes again & again & again & again…. till you learn,
3) everyone has the benefit of hindsight, but its important for those who made mistakes to own up & make up for it in any way they can. taking responsibility for 1’s mistake is part of growing up.
The problem i suspect is PMETs hit may not know what hit them yet, being mostly apathetic and continue their life like there is no problem.
so they just pmet for even more training…see how they are setting up this center…
http://pme.ntuclearninghub.com/
Now that the PAP has begun to talk about reviewing their FT policy. I would would not like to believe their words UNTIL I see the following departments and companies showing a major change to give priority to Singaporean in their employment policies:
a) All goverment ministries and the civil service;
b) All Statutory Boards and GLCs;
c) A law be past in parliament requiring the hiring of Singaporean of age 65 and below to be mandatory priority for various jobs catergories in the private sector.
Further more, we should not fear in acting correctly in our next GE for PAP to take us seriously because only our action can make a real change and improvement for our country.
FEAR is a bad word, it implies cowardice, which means “ behaviour that shows you are not brave enough to fight or do something difficult or dangerous that you should do”, by definition of the Macmillan Dictionary.
Being fearful means nothing will be achieved because you are not doing that something you should be doing.
Being fearful means you are destined to be a loser because you don’t even fight for things that are rightfully yours. And if you don’t fight for it, it will never be given to you because empathy is generally lacking in the Asian political scene..
Being fearful means you will never make true progress in life because real progress as a human being and as a country has to be made by doing something difficult and dangerous. The human race has made true progress from the painful lessons of the two world wars.
Being fearful means you choose not to be brave and that invites danger because in a world in which only the strong survive, the weak will be annihilated.
The American civil liberty is born of the spirit of freedom and democracy for which they bravely fight to protect constantly. The British parliamentarians debate tirelessly because they are not fearful to speak and to go through the difficult process called democracy because they know that democracy is the best way to move a country forward in which the interest of the common people (thus the House of Commons) can be adequately addressed.
So, my fellow Singaporean, go forth and be brave, do the right thing at the next general election for the true progress of our country and our people.
PMETs in their 40s and 50s are an endangered specie for several reasons: First, there are less positions at or near the top; second, these higher level positions require a much higher level of communication skills than what most PMETs have; and third,most PMETs do not present well.
I have interviewed many PMETs and although how you look shouldn’t count for much, the reality that most organisations want their PMETs to project a certain image. Most PMETs tend to sell themselves on their technical skills, which is fine, but it is their bulging bellies, thunder thighs and unco-ordinated clothes that distract the interviewers from their skills and talents.
Many PMETs claim that they dislike their jobs because of long, meaningless meetings that they have to attend. The reality is that these meetings are where they can shine. They should try to take advantage of these meetings to connect with people in other parts of the organisation and contribute to the decision making process by articulating changes or diverting discussions that have gone off-track.
Finally, PMETs should hit the gym. There is nothing more exciting and inspiring to an organisation than a PMET with wisdom, youthful energy and a vision to see through a complex tangle of corporate policies to solve a problem..