Leong Sze Hian / Andrew Loh -
The Prime Minister, on 15 July, was reported by the Straits Times as having said that the 100,000 foreign workers who are set to enter Singapore “was unavoidable as the labour market was bursting at the seams.” (Link)
However, if one takes a look at this Ministry of Manpower report, the story may be a totally different one. If the labour market is indeed “bursting at the seams”, why is it that according to MOM:
- Although total employment change grew by 36,500 to 3,026,500, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed residents has increased.
- Mature residents remain the largest unemployed group.
- Degree holders had the smallest improvement in unemployment rate and their share among resident job seekers increased.
- The long-term unemployed’s share in the unemployed pool increased.
- Long-term unemployment rate for degree holders and younger residents increased.
- 61% of the long-term unemployed were aged 40 and over.
- The number of production and related workers and clerical, sales and service workers laid off increased.
- PMETs accounted for more than half those made redundant.
- Mature residents formed a higher share among residents laid off and was also higher than their representation among resident employees, and the re-employment rate decreased.
To further unpack the government’s claim that the job market is “bursting at the seams”, we need to take a closer look at the labour statistics. This is an exercise in number-crunching and we hope readers will bear with us. It is, however, well worth going into to come to a more balanced view of the situation.
Unemployment
- The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed residents rose from 61,100 in December 2009 to 66,200 in March 2010.
- Mature residents aged 40 and over remained the largest group among unemployed residents – 29,800 or 47% – in March 2010.
- 10,200 or 34% of unemployed mature residents have a degree, polytechnic diploma or upper secondary education.
- 21,100 unemployed residents had a degree or polytechnic diploma.
- Degree holders formed the second highest number of unemployed residents, at 15,600.
- The number of unemployed with secondary education stands at 15,900.
- Degree holders experienced the smallest improvement in unemployment rate from 3 to 2.8% than all the other education groups.
- Degree holders’ share among resident job seekers rose from 18 to 25%.
Long-term unemployment
- The number of residents who had been looking for work for at least 25 weeks’ share in the unemployed pool rose from 19 to 23%.
- The long-term unemployment rate for younger residents aged below 30 edged up from 0.7 to 0.8%.
- The majority – 61% or 8,900 – of the long-term unemployed were aged 40 and over
Redundancy
- The number of production and related workers laid off rose for the second consecutive quarter.
- The number of workers in clerical, sales and service positions made redundant, increased compared to the fourth quarter of 2009.
- PMETs accounted for slightly over half – 51% – of the residents made redundant in the first quarter of 2010.
- Mature residents in their 40s (33%) or older (28%) formed a higher share among residents laid off in the first quarter of 2010 than in the fourth quarter of 2009 (29% and 26% respectively). This was also higher than their representation among resident employees at 27 and 25% respectively
Re-employment
- The re-employment rate within 6 months of redundancy fell from 52% in December 2009 to 50% in March 2010
In light of all the above statistics, is the labour market really “bursting at the seams”? Should we then again blame those who are unemployed for being “choosy”? Or should we repeat to them the mantra of “upskilling” and “upgrading”?
Perhaps it is time for the government to explain the above statistics, which are from the MOM itself, and give Singaporeans a more balanced view of the situation.
And our local media should not just parrot what it is given and instead ask these hard questions so that S’poreans have a more accurate picture of the labour scene.
In our next article, part three on the topic of jobs and wages, we take a look at the latter and what the NTUC has been doing (or not doing) with regards to it.
——-
Read Part 1 of this article: Fastest growing economy – what about jobs and wages?
HELP keep the voice of TOC alive!
If you like this article, please consider a small donation to help theonlinecitizen.com stay alive. Please note that we can only accept donations from Singaporeans. Thank you for your assistance.Do you have a flair for writing? Volunteer with us. Email us your full name and contact details to theonlinecitizen@gmail.com
Shocking that a PM of a First World Country will shoot his mouth, and gloat over his unsubstantiated statement with such gleeeeeee!!!
The reasons given in his claims of economic expansion as a result of domestic consumption and tourist arrivals with the two newly IR projects are similarly unbelieveable.
Even the recent statistics published by his Department of Statistics and the Ministry of Manpower do not back-up his position – even as the numbers do not quite match between these two government agencies.
The Department of Statistics had on its front homepage the following Key Indicators [See Ref #1 below]
[QUOTE]
Advance GDP up 19.3% in 2Q 2010
Total Trade up 27.6% in June 2010
Index of Industrial Production up 58.6% in May 2010
Total Population was 4.99 million in June 2009
CPI up 3.2% in May 2010
Retail Sales down 3.4% in May 2010
Employment was 3.03 million in May 2010
Unemployment Rate (SA) was 2.2% in Mar 2010
[UNQUOTE]
With CPI up at a high of 3.2% in May 2010 – any economic expansion is of little meaning to the tight wages earned by those Singaporeans who are employed.
Can the economic expansion happen when Retail Sales were recorded to be down by 3.4% in May 2010 – compared on a Year-on-Year or Month-to-Month basis, which also revealed that April 2010 was also down ?
With the second IR at Marina Bay Sands only open in April 2010, could it have such a fast impact to have affected the GDP so rapidly as was claimed by LHL – even as the Resorts World at Sentosa had teething problems with its facilities ?
When one review the statistics from the Ministry of Manpower website, the numbers also do not justify the claims made so enthusiastically by PM LHL.
In the Manpower Ministry website published in January 2010 – Table 1.1 showed December 2009 employment level was 2,991.2 Million covering Manufacturing, Construction, and Services. [See Ref #2 below]
Table 2.1 of the same Report showed that by end-2009 there was a Redundancy of 22,700 workers, Early Release of Contract Workers at 3,200, and Retrenchment of 19,500.
Table 2.2 showed ‘Redundancy by Sector’ with a total of 22,700 for all sectors covering Manufacturing, Construction and Services.
Table 3.1 ‘Unemployment Rate {Quarterly} showed Seasonally Adjusted Overall of 2.1%, and Resident being 3.0% at December 2009.
Table 3.2 ‘Unemployment Rate {Annual} showed Overall of 3.0% and for Resident at 4.3% by December 2009.
Clearly, there is a serious disconnect between the statistics and the PM’s enthusiasm with his deluded reasons given for a fast expanding economy to have occurred in Singapore.
With all the negative numbers do we need another 100,000 foreign workers ?
Can the economic expansion of 13% to 15% be real, or simply blowing hot air to inflate the PM’s own ego ?
.
.
Ref #1 – http://www.singstat.gov.sg/
Ref #2 – http://www.mom.gov.sg/home/Press_Release/Pages/20100129-ESQ42009.aspx
Hmmmmm ……. I think they local un-employed had been written off as un-employable.
I thought that foreign workers were brought in mainly because we had a low fertility rate, not because of an expanding economy (if there was ever one). And if this low fertility rate persists as in what is happening now, they will continue to bring in foreign workers whatever the secondary reasons are.
So under the premise that our population will be continually topped up with foreign workers, our demographics will change in no time, perhaps in another 8-12 years.
why can’t the government of singapore put the interest of local singaporeans as their priority? there is already insufficient jobs for the younger generation graduates and yet they are bringing in more “foreign talents” and new citizens… I don;t believe that singaporeans are choosy, if the conditions is right, who would want to le go the oppotunity?just simply label we locals as choosy is definitely not correct
“Economy set to grow 13%-15%”
….but without increase in jobs and wages for Singaporean…
….. no way to prevent this…
there is something going on, i truly think so…. the main reason for bringing in more foreign workers and new citizens might not be really to tackle the low fertility rate or insufficient workers.
I mentioned foreign workers being brought in for purposes to boost the population. I did not say foreign workers converted to citizens. If you take this into account, then there is a likely impact on election results, though the loyalty of such new citizens are largely unproven.
If I may hazard a guess, the PM meant that the industry needs 100 000 low level workers like cleaners, waiters, workers etc. I heard from a Chinese PR who is tertiary educated there is unhappiness among the foreign born PRs/Citizens that are serious about sinking their roots here because most jobs generated are for low-level workers and the jobs went to the transient foreign worker. In other words, the PRs and new citizens who are tertiary trained are sharing the woes of local born citizens as they share the same reality fighting against the low-paying non-citizens/PRs foreign workers. for example She told me that the ‘promise’ of jobs creation by the IRs are mostly for menial labour, and through their own grapevine, they know that the jobs went mostly to cheap foreign labor and not to tertiary level workers of either local or foreign borned Singaporeans/PRs. she told me that there is a sense of being misled into thinking that the IRs offered those with hospitality training a good job but in reality were offered menial labour that only foreign transient workers will take up.
Thus, MOM’s report as analysed by Sze Hian may be talking about one thing (PMET) while LHL is talking about another (Foreign menial labour).
I think what the majority is talking is different from what LHL is saying. We think ‘labour market’ refers to the employment of available local labour so that citizens can be gainfully utilized with a wage level compatible to the standard of living. GDP is minimal in such an equation, people is First. Obviously, from this angle, the seams aren’t bursting yet.
But LHL is back thinking GDP again — money First, people/citizens Second. The foreign levy, slowing down of foreign influx in 4Q2009 and talk of increasing productivity, blah, blah…. simply goes down the drain when it comes to actual delivering; instead the message is suddenly U-turned into 13-15% GDP growth!
With SGP wages at 44% of GDP, the easiest and cheapest way to boost GDP is by labour injection (further enhanced due to fact that is no min. wage laws); it obviously doesn’t matter to the garhem whether local or foreign labour is used. Bursting at the seams then refers to the availability of cheap labour willing to work at pitiable wages to push the GDP target.
From the first part of the topic, the author mentioned 30% workers (based on CPF contributing) gets $1500 or less. The median salary is said to be $2400, which presumably means the bulk of the remaining 70%. Including the unemployed, can we say that at least 60-70% of workers in Singapore are getting $2400 or less? Is this sufficient for our standard of living? Now think that our top 30 politicians get about $70-80 MILLIONS, aren’t we being nudged toward the Pareto scenario? Where is the ‘Singaporeans First’ in such an equation?
An aside. The first part mentioned Tharma aims to increase wages by 30% in 10 years to $3100. I think it was clarified that with inflation adjusted, he said it should be about $3600. Still that means about 2.5% ‘real’ wage increase per year inflation adjusted. Pls look back past 2-4 years–have food, housing, transport, other bare necessities increased only 2.0+% (e.g. a 4-rm HDB costing 200K then, now cost only 215-220K)? What about ministers’ pay? Have it increased by only 2+% annually since LHL took over? Oh, again, is he and ppl on the ground talking on different frequencies???
Furthermore, the GDP is to grow at 3-5% (or 13-15%?) and yet Tharma is aiming to give workers only 2.5% wage increase. Balance go where, huh? WTF is he talking?
Jump in number of suicides in S’pore
when yahoo set a new rules that posters got to register to post comment and their email address to be submit. suddenly all the singaporeans posting decently and not even a hard words on the government,not even a ‘F’ to the government. all pointing finger and blaming the person who suicide.
but if they don’t need to register…..,there you go you will see nasty comments and ‘F’ the government and ‘F’ the ministers and shick shack everywhere.
see how coward still baby singaporeans is?
so do you thing singaporeans will vote PAP out in reality?
you all think singaporeans will so call fight for the rights?
you think singaporeans will hold hands as one to show we are so call true blue singaporeans?
all i can say is that go and buy a baby bottle and a dumex milk and live your life.
singaporeans are just sick head and the head full of sh!t. never ever learn their lesson no matter how much being squeeze and beaten and humiliated by the government. they still go under thier pants with their bottles
this is the very reason gov can squeeze your head and foreigners can step your head.
don’t put shameless commment if you are not going to fight in reality. don’t pretend that you are true blue singaporeans and so brave when you are just wasting your lunch time or free time ‘F’ here and there to enjoy your moment in your free time.
ya lor sinkaporan talk only big and so smart in calculation and GDP, Grandfather Disposable Platoon but they actually have small balls.lol
foreign workers all needed in certain sectors like construction but we are seeing the govt allowing heavy influx of white-collared workers of all sorts into our already crowded out economy and steraling jobs that rightly belong to Sinagporeans if not for some unfair practices by these so-called FTs in terms of wage-undercutting and fake resume.
all these only point towards the govt’s insincerity and muddle0headedness as it has already proven that our local workers’ prodcutivity are higher than these FTs even our CHANGI AIRPORT lost its top ranking and the toilets at the air[port are not as clean as before when our ah peks and ah sohs were doing work as cleaners there.
What LHL is sayig is he wants to bring in additional 100,000 CHEAP foreign labour
I talk to a nos of Restaurant business owner. it seems there are a shortage of manpower. Their people job hop and it hard to find replacement.
Cpt,i know of many white-collared FTs job-hopping too!
they come here by accepting margianlly lower wages,then after a while,they use their first job as a springbaord to get higher wages.
by the way,who are these workers hwo job-hopped,could they be foriegners also?
TO: CPT
job hop? is that the only issue why foreigners being influx?
they learn they do too. like the monkey say. monkey see monkey do. but what is the reason behind this hopping?
i have seen too. singapore was paid like a foreigners so they find a better offer the go for it. this is not hopping.so the business owner instead would not raise the pay but rather have a foreign worker to cut cost and take home more in a way.
foreigners stay in domitory. what they pay for?
singaporeans live in their own land. what they have to pay for?
look into the bigger picture then voice up.
@Cpt,
Yes, always the other side of the story of job-hopping, etc. Jus’ how much they paying their employees?
May I remind everyone that in the 1990′s, the garhem tried to dissuade people from job-hopping, probably as a attempt to appease companies who complained of need to keep retraining new staff. Perhaps having, say, a min.wage system THEN would have addressed largely the issue BY NOW.
When companies started moving out of S’pore in the 2000′s, the garhem tactly ‘suggested’ that workers should seek other opportunities if & when such opportunities present themselves, hence the increasing nos of S’poreans working overseas since. Still, there is no change to the labor laws to prevent exploitation of workers here. So, who created such mentality of job-hopping? The FTs with dual passports?
PM and his gang of ministers are always giving us half-truth or white wash statistics. We know statistics can be manipulated. It is nearing election time, we just cannot believe what we hear anymore.
if economic growth is at the expense of the people, there is a bubble that is forming somewhere. if people (the majority) find it increasingly difficult to sustain themselves & their family, it reflects directly the state of the current leadrship.
employers should be compelled to share the fruits of the growth, many have been holding out for far too long. people who help companies tide over 1 crisis may have been laid off when the next crisis hit, their efforts may well go un-noticed.
perhaps people should hold back the wage increases & bonus for the top leadership citing certainty ahead (employers always use this convenient excuse anyway)?
our ministers from father to son via uncle hav NEVER prayed simcity @ all
the day when it was launch on the 8bit i hav played nintendo machine simcity till the last simcity4…
it was designed for 1 purposed..how to run a country and how proud you feel when you worked your way up from a village headman till you become the president…
every european countries would always solved the employment status FIRST..it alway says LOCALs..not cheap foreign labour with the workers minimum decent wages in their economic plannin…
which is why the australians labour laws cover a 1 month salaries to be given when the workers take their 1 month(minimum by law) annual leaves they also hav spendin holiday money..the 13th month bonus is NOT in their employment acts..the government believed the employers deserved to pay out who should earned that bonus….
in singapoor all our employers hav been treated liked a lost sheeps leadin a flocked of USELESS cheap sheeps who just collect the compulsory 13th month payment even if they flaunt in their duties and capacities.you all know the mas sala/floodin/overcrowded mrt problemo
every ministers/perm secs/scholars who failed still earned that 13th month…
~sigh~
another great article
Well, what can we expect? This ain’t the first time comments were made without substantial backing? Some people will just say anything to make themselves look good or to cover up for mistakes
“When you talk to a guy like a BP CEO, he’s going to say all the right things (to me. I’m) not interested in words. (I’m) interested in actions.” — President Obama, 9 June 2010, on the Tony Hayward & the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Another stellar analysis of the true state of the Singapore economy by Leong and Loh.
Sad to say, a misleading headline from the Straits Times, yet again.
Growth of double-digits means nothing to the average SIngaporean if it does not translate to jobs and increase in the standard of living.
Again, high GDP figures means bigger bonuses for the multi-millionaire PAP ministers and MPs.
LHL either did read his MOM report or didn’t it is important that people benefit from economic growth through jobs… or he was simply lying.
You be the judge.
Any case, you cannot count on him to deliver.
LHL got no boss to bring in 100,000 more foreign workers.
fpc, 27 July 2010
oh no, oh no, oh no….
did our dear PM not do his homework again?
:D
in my work place there are many
so called ” engineers” from Burma,
philipine,china. I wonder how the
check their qualification . This
is really a total betrayal to the
true singaporean . Singaporean have
to help himself to chase away all
these not qualified “foreign talent”.
It all boils down to the fact that Singaporeans are too dumb to know the difference between GDP and GNP.
To put it simply,
GNP = GDP – income earned by foreigners in country + income earned by citizens abroad.
Here’s an example: Suppose an Ang Moh comes to Singapore to open an integrated resort. He makes $100 million but he only has to pay $1 million to the Singapore government for a license and another $1 million to Kwa Geok Choo’s nephew for getting him that license.
The full $100 million will count towards Singapore’s GDP but only the $2 million (Government’s + KGC nephew’s) will count towards Singapore’s GNP. This is of course assuming that KGC’s nephew is a Singaporean, otherwise the contribution to Singapore’s GNP would only be $1 million.
Now do you know why the PAP has stopped reporting GNP figures for so many years and only reports GDP figures? When they hoodwink you about economic growth, they are using GDP growth, not GNP growth.
@ Translator
No Wonder! Remember economics lesson now!
So their million salaries should be peg to GNP and not GDP , better still peg to the annual % wage increase of Singaporeans !
For GNP not used, still want GDP but this one :
G_o D_ie P_APaya
@Still Want GDP
We should take/remember economics AND social science lessons.
Pegging to GDP/GNP is only an invention of the newer leaders; the old generation never had an inkling for such scheming. Some of the Old Guards even went without pay for a while.
As such the ministers’ pay should be pegged to the top 10 rank pay for NSF (not regulars), up to the rank of colonel (which the late GKS was). After all, they should be grateful for the opportunity that the ’66% voters’ is giving them to serve our country & not seemingly instead of using it as a money milking excuse.