Tan Lay Kuan
Intrigued by MM Lee’s claims that housing prices would collapse if the citizens choose the opposition members as their MPs, we have conducted a little study to validate this “hard truth”.
For this study, we have chosen to zoom in on an interesting section of Toa Payoh Lorong 8 where a cluster of 4-room HDB flats with the same floor area (82 sqm) are completed between 1975 and 1978.
The reason for this choice is that the cluster of similar flats are split between Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC (Blk 226 and 227) and Potong Pasir SMC (Blk 214, 219, 220, 221 and 222).
Hence, the specifications (i.e. location, design, floor area, age) of this cluster are the same, with the only exception being that some of them are in opposition ward while others are in government hands. Comparing their resale prices would allow us to validate MM Lee’s statement. In addition, the blocks in Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC had been upgraded while those in Potong Pasir SMC had not undergone any significant makeover.
Methodology:
Analysis of a similar cluster of 4-room (82 sqm) HDB flats along Toa Payoh Lorong 8, completed between 1975 and 1978.
· Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC (Blk 226 and 227)
· Potong Pasir SMC (Blk 214, 219, 220, 221 and 222)
Data:
Resale Price of Flats between May 2010 and April 2011, taken from HDB Infoweb.
The resale price and unit data (see Attachment 1), taken from the HDB Infoweb, are analysed as shown in Attachment 2. Unfortunately, the data points for the Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC flats are probably insufficient to provide conclusive evidence. However, a simple analysis of the average selling price indicates that the flats in Potong Pasir SMC seem to be more expensive than those in Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC. The main reason could be that most of the sales are on higher floors in Potong Pasir SMC. Hence, we further analysed the average selling price based on the level of those units. The flats are found to be more expensive for Potong Pasir SMC for those units between 1 to 10-storey.
However, for those above 10-storey, the average resale price is higher in Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC. The difference of $11,000 though, is not a lot when compared to other probable variables such as the level of the unit (see highlighted resale values of 2 separate Blk 219 units on different levels in Dec 2010 where there is a difference of $40,000) and the upkeep/interior design of the unit (see the $32,000 difference between 2 separate Blk 220 units on same level in Oct 2010).
Summary of the Average Resale Prices between May 2010 to April 2011
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC (Blk 226 and 227)
Average Price (All) = $ 345,745.43
Average Price (1 to 5 storey) = $ 332,500.00
Average Price (6 to 10 storey) = $ 341,072.67
Average Price (11 to 15 storey) = $ 366,000.00
Potong Pasir SMC (Blk 214, 219, 220, 221 and 222)
Average Price (All) = $ 351,300.00
Average Price (1 to 5 storey) = $ 334,142.86
Average Price (6 to 10 storey) = $ 350,800.00
Average Price (11 to 15 storey) = $ 355,000.0o
In conclusion, we cannot find evidence of MM’s claims in our study that the HDB resale prices would collapse if a constituency goes over to the opposition or that there is a significant difference between the property values of HDB flats on government and opposition wards, holding other variables (i.e. location, design, floor area, age, level of unit) constant.
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But MM Lee has all along been claiming that he never tells lies and so proud of him as to tell foreign journalists so. His reasoning : he is never sued for defamation. This shows, he claims, he never lies and a thousand sentenses uttered by him are the thousand hard truths backed by solid facts.
mbt or pm lee only touched on income ceilings and not more discount for first timers or top up 10 k or more , therefore this problem wont go away…
welcome to higher housing prices and more erp(already standby more erp if you notice) and coes after election, mark my words here, etc prices increase…
i am seeing the news of cna.. and also gy is trying to attack wp again, thought the pm and miw mentioned no more personal attack and focus on national building issue or rather cost of living issues? in the first place, which ruling party caused this issue of cost of living and housing issues?
Confused 4 May 2011
But MM Lee has all along been claiming that he never tells lies and so proud of him as to tell foreign journalists so. His reasoning : he is never sued for defamation. This shows, he claims, he never lies and a thousand sentenses uttered by him are the thousand hard truths backed by solid facts.
:
mm lee also claims that our reserves are intact but cant show us transparently the account. you believe him?
they are despicable with grc system.. if to protect minorities mp then WHY LATE OLD Mr JAYA FIRST OPPOSITION MP can win anson by election???
it is the heart that counts, not the biased system
i am find it strange pap keep harping vote in WP will result in HDB price to fall. But if want look at the HDB records on the HDB website, one can see HDB flats in Hougang Ave 5 which is the heart of Hougang SMC, the prices of the 4room flats that transacted there are not much different from Hougang Ave 8 which was run by georgie aljunied grc. The prices for the last 12 months are as follow:
Hougang Ave 5 3rm flat : ranging from $245K to $330K (WP)
Hougang Ave 8 3rm flat : ranging from $220K to $326K (PAP)
Hougang Ave 5 4rm flat : ranging from $305K to $420K (WP)
Hougang Ave 8 4rm flat : ranging from $290K to $420K (PAP)
Hougang Ave 5 5rm flat : ranging from $340K to $527K (WP)
Hougang Ave 8 5rm flat : ranging from $390K to $496K (PAP)
looking at the above figure, i fail to comprehen how did PAP come up with the logic that WP run hougang HDB flat worth less than the same across the road in the PAP run estate. The figure above are not bull****, all taken from HDB resale e-service. On the whole, WP’s Hougang worth more than PAP’s Hougang. In fact, i use Hougang Ave 8 as comparsion place hougang ave 5 at a disadvantage as Hougang Ave 5 were built in 1983 while Ave 8 were built in 1986, some even in 1992.
So can PAP explain why people are paying more to buy a older flat in a “slum” while pay less for the newer flat in a “world clas estate” run by the PAP?
http://services2.hdb.gov.sg/webapp/B…PReslTrans.jsp
feel free to click on the link to check, all the figures are from HDB website.
I stay in HG ave 5 and I can testify that the prices here are definitely not lower than other parts of hougang… even though the flats here were built earlier in 1983.
In fact, my neighbour’s 5 room maisonette is worth more than 550k in today’s market! I say 550k because he had an offer from a buyer and he rejected it… he says this place is peaceful, quiet, nice and spacious. Hard to find elsewhere in singapore.
So I’m puzzled at MM Lee’s comments today which is not what I agree with.
He is old liao. Please pardon him for not able to calculate properly. It is good that we check on his maths.
Ministry of National Development slogan: “Endearing Homes”.
Yet PAP passed a law that empowers 90% (80% if condo estate is more than 10 years old) of your neighbours to force you to sell your family home without your consent from the day you collect keys from developer (ie, from date of issuance of Temporary Occupation Permit).
On the one hand, majoritianism is invoked over private property rights. On the other hand, the law prohibits majority consenters from lodging objections to the collective sale based on an agreement-in-principle to sell at a reserve price set up to 24 moons ago.
This is despite retirement savings being at stake as CPF monies are sanctioned for private condo purchase. This is aside from environmental/sustainable redevelopment issues.
PAP “Rule Singapore” or “Fool Singapore”???
Not only LKY who is daft and old and out of touched with the people and HDB prices. The whole BUNCH OF PAP people are great liar too. Look at how they all tried to discredit and smear the opposition parties instead of engaging in fair fight on national issue. None!! PAP has nothing to offer to the people. Its manifesto sucks!! and LHL apologies is to fool the voters. So when PAP
speak, I shut my ears and saved all the trauma of listening.
Now they fix the opposition. After election, we are next! For the next 5 years! Repent! All ye filthy undeserving noises!
Come On, MM NEVER LIES. But he forgot he’s already senile. He doesn’t know what’s he’s mumbling abt
Never trust the OLD MAN. It’s the same old man that told us Singapore had a $4 trillion economy to justify top pay for “top PAP talent”.
And Singapore total GDP is only $235 billion.
This is a shrivel of a man who has been befuddled by the zeros in his own bank, therefore can’t count. Senility at its best!
I for one am waiting to move to Aljunied should WP win there and I am willing to pay $40K above valuation.
I am not the only one. So Aljunied residents, you are in a win-win situation, vote opposition even if you fear PAP. After election sell and move to PAP ward.
I used to stay in Hougang, but under the Aljunied GRC. When I was selling my house last year, I was quite taken aback that similar type flats in my vicinity fetched much much less than some of those in Mr Low’s Hougang ward. So how can MM’s words be true?
more like a threat based on assumption.
@ EndMay7
Maybe I not clear enough earlier…..
My reasoning as follows….
If opp gain power (and I mean majority) and they implement oversupply + selling at cost plus all new hdb…….then home prices will fall across the board…..not just opp ward…..
If want to undo pap asset appreciation policy, then must think of very controlled manner….but what opp is proposing now will fore sure send the prices to crash….
Again, please bear in mind that this scenario is if opp manages to push their policy through (I.e they have majority vote)
——————————————
Firstly lets get these straight;
- HDB is PUBLIC HOUSING; How is it that HDB has become a profit oriented entity? To the point that NEW HDBs follow the prices of the private market?
To follow the prices of the private market, u have to know how much “hot money” & speculators’ money is in the private property market – the PAPER GAINS u see today might disappear overnight ANYTIME the next downturn/disaster occurs. Now with loan interest rates so low, it is very cheap to borrow & spend… but will interest rates be low forever?
Is the demand for private housing REAL or mainly speculative? Once u follow the private market, u also have to play by the rules of the private market.
- We all know the prices in the private market is also volatile in the short term (i.e 1 to 5 years) – families who bought brand new HDBs during an upswing in the property cycle can be seriously in negative equity 5 years later when they need to dispose off their flats for whatever reasons. Things get worse IF the breadwinner(s) of the household is retrenched/jobless/sick etc.
- Asset enhancement policy is just a sweet term – meant to drum up images of living happily ever after in lala land. As said by many times by others before – “asset enhancement” works ONLY if u have more than 1 property OR u are one of those very rare persons who does not need a shelter over ur head. The other condition is that prices MUST keep rising – cos if u sell ur HDB & buy another HDB, im sure u want ur 2nd HDB to continue to be asset enhanced?
Now with HDB’s new ruling of not allowing owners to own more than 1 property, this defeats the term; “asset enhancement”. As good as Mah Bow Tan shooting his own foot since he coined this term.
I dun think i have to state further the fallacy of this “asset enhancement” for HDB owners. i.e: U sell HIGH, u buy HIGH.. do u get to get to use the money from ur “asset enhancement”?
Yes lucky if u have a big unit – 5 room & above… u sell HIGH u still can downgrade to 3 room & MAYBE can even afford to pay off in full for the 3 room & have some spare cash. How much cash u think u have left? Singapore cheap to live in ah? what if u are a young family with 2 growing kids or more… 3 rooms is a tad squeezy.
It is a useless term that sounds nice with no real meaning on the ground.
- Without knowing the real costs of constructing a HDB unit, it is really hard to pinpoint what is termed as “crashing the hdb market”…
- Demand outstrips supply now due to the ridiculous BTO (read as: COver my ass policy).. u mean to say that asset enhancment will guarantee growth even when the tables are turned? – when supply outstrips demand..
the scaremongering tactics that PAP employs is just that; to scare the daylights out of voters. Already rules are in place to reduce speculative behaviour in HDB… the next thing to do is to price new flats in a sustainable manner… not by private market prices which go UP & DOWN all the time.
hi all,
the pappies has only lost abit of online space, but they still have their advantages as the traditional media and older generations who dont access online or internet still TRUST the media.. THEY OUTNUMBER us by at least 20-30%… although our internet take up nationwide is about 70-75%, how many are concerned with politics(only 1 out 10 or 20), and how many uses online to browse is unknown.
That’s why pappies could control traditional media and control us for 50 years..
please dont think one grc would be enough to help us, as they would think ways to discredit or disadvantage or try to overthrow them… in the first place the opposition is more gentlemen, but is the pappies, always belittling our representatives. We need at least 2, but i doubt so maybe aljunied also lose as media control is still well done by pappies
the traditional media like straits time, new paper, today, tv like channel 5, 8 and channel news asia…
PLEASE, I URGE SERIOUSLY, the hdb blocks and condos blocks, please please NSP, WP, RP, SDP do your rounds for next 2 days using 2-3 representative of smc and grc to capture these. We need more senior citizen support, circulate your presence there… but please have quantity and quality conversation.
The children can show their dad and mum and elders youtube to help them also…
We the online community still need 5-10 years before we can be the force of people power to be reckon with…
PLEASE do our parts to help as responsible and far sight and yet pragmatic singaporean.
why singaporeans say say only and eventually never vote for non-pappies is because of
1) the goodies given before and during election like even upgrading and better housing when we know that it is very bad as singaporeans struggling to pay very high prices for it
2) the myth that without pappies we cant survive, no one is indepensible. and they will still win very majority seats.
3) the myth that vote is not secret, actually they can check(that’s why they shifted the same grc and smc blocks to different smcs as REMEMBER the polls stations from there they know which block dont support them and which block supports them as they wont waste resources to recount the votes and see who are not loyal to pappies), but even if they check so what? they can burn our houses or lock up everyone? then the democracy truly dead, although now with grc it is dying 99% now, or democracy dead from day 1.
3) please dont be complacent and think game over for pappies, THEY ARE STILL VERY POWDERFUL they are coming up with more tricksssss and carrots mark my words, but they are not changing their policies of foreigners, housing pricing, giving more discount, reporting the reserves transparently of our very hard earn money(some parties got to speak up for us)…
The cooling day magic is coming… it would be saddest and most disappointing day for democracy… as the pappies would use this day to utmost advantages… while non-pappies cant do anything except online…
Hi, when we buy resale flats do we ever bother find out which constituency it belongs to? This is totally irrelevent, as it is up market forces to decide the price of the flat.
in the politics of singapore. only he is allowed to say things as he wishes ? no need to apologise ? and ” bec we all understand that’s the way he speaks” ?. No. it goes to show again and again his arrogance and self-righteousness, and indiffencenc towards fellow singaporeans’ feeling, even after soo long. Let him “live and repent”.
MM Lee never lies.. but he is not always correct though.. who is?
Many in the opposition have been labelled a “liar”. Now lets look at the definition of a mythomaniac or Pathological Liar. Pathological liars – or “mythomaniacs” – may be suffering from histrionic personality disorder or narcissistic personality disorder.
The following comments basically reflect a pathological liar who has the characteristics of histrionic personality disorder.
Some characteristics
1. Exaggerates things that are ridiculous.
2. One-upping. Whatever you do, this person can do it better. You will never top them in their own mind, because they have a concerted need to be better than everyone else. This also applies to being right. If you try to confront an individual like this, no matter how lovingly and well-intentioned you might be – this will probably not be effective. It’s threatening their fantasy of themselves, so they would rather argue with you and bring out the sharp knives than admit that there’s anything wrong with them. (no need for example here)
3. They “construct” a reality around themselves. They don’t value the truth, especially if they don’t see it as hurting anyone. If you call them on a lie and they are backed into a corner, they will act very defensively and say ugly things (most likely but depends on personality), but they may eventually start to act like, “Well, what’s the difference? You’re making a big deal out of nothing!” (again, to refocus the conversation to your wrongdoing instead of theirs).
4. Because these people don’t value honesty, a lot of times they will not value loyalty. So watch what you tell them. They will not only tell others, but they will embellish to make you look worse. Their loyalty is fleeting, and because they are insecure people, they will find solace in confiding to whomever is in their favor at the moment.
5. They may be somewhat of a hypochondriac. This can come in especially useful when caught in a lie, for example, they can claim that they caught off guard or blaming the global ecomony. It’s another excuse tool for their behavior.
6. Obviously, they will contradict what they say. This will become very clear over time. They usually aren’t smart enough to keep track of so many lies (who would be?).
Now look at the 6 characteristics and then decide who is the pathological liar. I definitely know of one old man who fits the bill perfectly
Talking about honesty and lies.
Is tweaking and gerrymandering of GRCs for the purpose of eliminating one-man-one-vote constitional right of people an act of honesty and integrity?
Is asset enhancement policy not targeted at making huge profits from lands belonging to and already paid by people for public housing?
Is not selective pegging of ministers’ salaries to a few lucky lottery ticker winnders like stock brokers and estate agents not a case of getting the job first and then use position of power for fixing one’s own salaries?
stand corrected again?
can you pls stand correctly so that no need to keep on stand corrected?!
Prices slightly higher in PP could be a plan to reduce or deter people to stay there. Because when there are less population there, PAP might have a higher chance to get this TC bac? It’s all part of the conspiracy theory?
still lying even at this age, he should focus more on his journey in the afterlife.
now he should Repent!
yeh ! PM, for your father’s good, please ask him to go seek medical or psychological or spiritual help. This is also for the good and health of your people.
Prices drop? Another fear tactic.
I agree with ss’s comment. halozz and SC Ho is right. What grey said cannot be more correct and thinking aunty words should be heeded.
What about wait until death than collect your medisave, ask your children to send underground, huh.
ss
stupid comments.
its ok..if my hdb flat price drop.
we only can own ONE hdb flat.
u sell cheap-u buy cheap.
but t next generation DONT need pay 30 year mortgage loan.
think of t compound interest over 30 years.
it almost equal 70-80% of t loan quantum!!!
mah bow tan presented a set of figures in the papers today to show that pap aljunied flats are more expensive than wp hougang.
the figures are said to be from the hdb website, but a simple check shows that something don’t tally.
for example, 5-room flats built from 1980-85 (the basis for comparison) do not exist in hougang ave 6 and 8, only in ave 10 where there only 10 transactions are recorded from may 2010 to april 2011. so one wonders how they got figures for the 17 transactions quoted?
perhaps the extra 7 transactions are from data we do not have. That is not possible since everyone accesses the same website and figures.
or the figures for newer flats have been added erroneously. creative accounting, they say.
Well, prices WILL fall if authorities want it to fall. PERIOD.
The Old Fart mentions there is affirmative action for malay. This is not true. There is none. Why at this end stage of his exixtence he kept insisting on these imagination of his.
2nd, he said in the hard truths book, Malays can never catch up with other races in terms of education. This is blatant disrespect to Malays.
If that was trhe case, then PAP policies, MESNDAKI etc bhad failed to narrow the gap in achievement levels between the malays and other races.
We need to from another government which can address Malay issues better.
Years ago, I would have been fooled, but thanks to informed citizens like you, I can see that we cannot accept everything we are told, even from people we respect.
But this is a damper as my respect is dropping when I find someone I trust telling lies. Oh no!
Basically, on the demand & supply theory, if there is less supply of HDB thus there is more demand & these will increase the HDB price. However, we have enough supply of HDB houses hence there should not be a reason for the exponential increase in public housing prices as they are meant for the public:- SG citizens such young couple to setup family, elderly who wants smaller flats & retire, nuclei family – these are schemes of SG thus public housing should be rights presented to the locals instead of locals fighting for their rights & esp today as the birthrate is low, thus SG community is in sustainable size where the supply of HDB should be at surplus, which should automatically decrease the price
Let’s put it this way. I am not going to buy it if it is in the opposition ward.
Space 4 May 2011
Let’s put it this way. I am not going to buy it if it is in the opposition ward.
………….
~zhee~
chiamseetong/lowthiskiang must be thinkin
with people liked you
many vacant availiable 2nd hands on leywron sale…
try bukit timah..if i were you…
When did our dear MM become Mr Market as well? This article is an embarrassment to his pathetic foretelling powers. Haha
MM Lee is probably concerned that the property price for luxury condos and big bungalow will drop since his family members, friends and colleagues are so much into these investments. One person I know recently bought the SAIL at Marina Bay with her 8 month bonus. People in HDB have no fear. Afterall what can you do. Sell the property where do you stay. You cannot get rental flat until many years have past. So you don’t even have place to laosai.
I often wonder why people want their home prices to go sky high. Are these people with BRAINS or just TISSUES of matter.
When the PAP is returned to power, your home prices will go to the ROOF, when mas imports of slaves comes in, but then the CRASH will also follow, look at the years prior to 1999, when HKG and Macau 999 lease over and they go back to China, mass immigration, 25k HKongier rushing at the Singapore high com in hkg for immigration to singapore, HDB flats went up and then, IT WENT DOWN also.
They buy into all the PROPAGANDA the PAP has BROADCAST VIA SHIT TIMES AND CNA.
DID the opposition CAUSED what happen ???
Some of my friends, against my advice, were caught in this, some losing 2100k, will you be caught too, or your children ? DON’T WOORY, EITHER ONE OF YOU WILL BE CAUGHT….GOD BLESS YOU .
But singaporeans are too SELFISH and STUPID to think ONLY about themselves.
They will reap, what they sow.
correction
I often wonder why people want their home prices to go sky high. Are these people with BRAINS or just TISSUES of matter.
When the PAP is returned to power, your home prices will go to the ROOF, when mass imports of slaves comes in, but then the CRASH will also follow, look at the years prior to 1999, when HKG and Macau 999 lease is over and they go back to China, mass immigration, 25k HKongier rushing into the Singapore high com in hkg for PR and migration to singapore, HDB flats went up and then, IT WENT DOWN also.
DID the opposition CAUSED what happen ???
Some of my friends, against my advice, were caught in this, some losing 100k, will you be caught too, or your children ?
DON’T WORRY, EITHER ONE OF YOU WILL BE CAUGHT….GOD BLESS YOU .
But singaporeans are too SELFISH and STUPID to think ONLY about themselves.
They buy into all the PROPAGANDA the PAP has BROADCAST VIA SHITTY TIMES AND CNA.
They will reap, what they sow.
That’s how market prices work. If flats in opposition ward are indeed cheaper, everyone will flock to buy flats there, driving the price up.
Another example is COE prices, nobody put a gun on your head to bid 30k for it.
HDB flats are another big issue, PM Lee said lets share Singapore. To truly share Singapore, we must truly own the only “asset” most Singaporean have in their lifetime here, their HDB flat. To convert “asset” to asset, it has to be freehold to Singaporean so that the amount of hard work we sweat and sow for one generation of hard work will not expire in 99 years time by HDB. Nobody gave HDB the mandate to “sell” HDB to Singapore under leasehold arrangement, how can they continue to do this to us from 1960s where most Singaporean are not well educated and do not really understand what leasehold meant to them. Now we know leasehold is not fair to us and future generation, we have to correct it now, these HDB vicious cycle must be stopped. As Singaporean, we should fight for our right to claim a piece of Singapore to be truly belong to us.
Why this vicious cycle? PAP GOV MPs are too happy with whatever system the put in place for so many years and will not likely to make any changes, we need opposition voices to do so. Many of us should regret not voting enough oppositions into parliament for so many years. Let’s not regret for not correcting the wrong this time.
FORWARD THIS MSG AS FAR AS U CAN.