~by: Bhaskaran Kunju~
It’s been about a week since the Presidential Elections ended and Dr Tony Tan was elected as our seventh President by the slimmest of margins.
But the blame game for Dr Tan Cheng Bok’s narrow defeat hasn’t ceased. Most have pinned the blame squarely on the splitting of votes in a four candidate field. Others have been more specific in targeting Tan Jee Say or Tan Kin Lian, or both if you had felt really really hard done by, for taking away votes that (presumably) would have gone to Tan Cheng Bock.
Then there’s the small group who have targeted, supporters of Tan Jee Say for handing victory to President Tan nee Doctor Tan. Among those who got the brunt of it were Nicole Seah, Jeannette Chong-Aruldoss and the Singapore Democratic Party. Of course failing to recognise that everyone has a right to choose their own candidates is a mistake in itself.
But the problem here is that there’s a huge assumption that Tan Cheng Bock would have attained a larger share of the votes, had Tan Kin Lian and Tan Jee Say not contested at all, and hence be elected as the supreme Tan. The rationale is that, those who voted for the latter two Tans would have cast their votes for Tan Cheng Bock since they were presumably voters who weren’t supportive of a pro-establishment figure.
The rationale holds true, but the conclusion is false. The problem arises when one assumes that those who voted for Tan Cheng Bock would have still voted for him in a two horse race against Tony Tan.
Given the aspects working against Tan Cheng Bock in a hypothetical two-horse race, it is more likely that Tony Tan would have won by a more convincing margin instead of the current lament of a possible victory for Tan Cheng Bock.
Tony Tan received 35.20% of the votes cast, so that’s 64.8% of voters who chose against him. Taking into account that Tony Tan resembled the closest to a PAP endorsed candidate, the final tally seems odd.
Tony Tan did not receive an ‘official endorsement’ but that’s merely semantics at work. Prime Minister Lee’s exact quote was “We have decided it’s best we leave Singapore voters to choose. I have expressed my view – I think Dr Tony Tan is eminently qualified and a very good candidate. But I leave it to Singapore voters to make their judgement and I have every confidence that they will make a good judgement.” (see HERE)
Even Tony Tan did not disagree that that was an endorsement from the PM (see HERE). Apart from the PM, several other Ministers and the former President Nathan himself stated their preference for Tony Tan.
So let’s get that out of the way, Tony Tan was the preferred choice by the PAP establishment, but the government stopped short of issuing an ‘official endorsement’ for his candidacy. Tony Tan was the unofficially endorsed PAP candidate.
In a four horse race, each of the candidates took on a different role, or rather persona as mooted by the media. Tan Jee Say was the ‘opposition’s choice’ , Tan Kin Lian the ‘outsider’, Tan Cheng Bock the elder statesmen and ‘dissenting ex-PAP member’, and Tony Tan as mentioned previously, the ‘PAP’s choice’.
In a four-horse race, Tan Cheng Bock was able to inadvertently (or maybe advertently, only he would be able to personally confirm it) play the role of a moderate member of the establishment, someone who stood for the core principles of the institution that was already in place but had enough awareness to dissent against the shortcomings of the government.
That is an attractive proposition for many; people who do not like the threat of an overwhelming change from opposition candidates but keen on some reforms within the confines of PAP rule – something that in itself is a political play that has been cultivated and preached by the PAP for decades.
People often forget that there is a potent silent majority. The largest core of our electorate is the silent majority, a common phenomenon in a lot of democracies. In the most vocal of General Elections since the 1980s, where opposition parties attracted rally attendees by the tens of thousands while the incumbents had to largely resort to ferrying in their own supporters, the PAP still managed a relatively comfortable 60.1% share of the total votes cast. Needless to say that is where the votes for PAP came from.
There is an assumption that there are such groups of people as hardcore PAP supporters, or hardcore opposition supporters. They may exist but they are merely outliers. Most who fall into the silent majority category will fall into the group of people mentioned earlier who would have opted for Tan Cheng Bock or Tony Tan.
A two-horse race is inherently more divisive, it is a yes or no option, and in that scenario, Tan Cheng Bock is the man who’s standing against the establishment. In a two-horse race, regardless of how Tan Cheng Bock positions himself, he would always be the candidate who’s running against Tony Tan, the PAP’s choice. In other words he would be the opposition.
Keep in mind that Tan Cheng Bock was the first candidate to state his intention to run for office. At that point in time, he was in for some mild rebuttal from PAP MPs who felt it would be “very awkward” for Tan Cheng Bock to run without the official endorsement of the PAP government. – http://www.tanchengbock.org/peoples-comments/pap-mps-surprised-by-dr-tan-cheng-bocks-intention-to-run-for-president
Additionally the PAP not ‘officially’ endorsing a candidate worked in favour of Tan Cheng Bock as it freed voters to vote for a moderate PAP candidate, without feeling like they were voting against the PAP. There is no saying that the PAP would have decided to ‘officially’ endorse a candidate in a two-horse race, though that is something they had done in the past and had been expected prior to the current one.
The same machinery that was perceived to be at work in promoting Tan Jee Say and/or Tan Kin Lian would also have been presumed to be propelling Tan Cheng Bock to victory. Given such prospects would the voters who have stated a preference for the establishment still stood behind Tan Cheng Bock? Most certainly not.
The votes that Tan Cheng Bock received almost certainly came from the PAP voting bloc. Hence the surprising outcome of the final tally, where Tony Tan was deemed victor by a mere 0.35% margin.
The total share of votes attained by Tan Cheng Bock and Tony Tan was 70.05%, just over 10% more than the votes that PAP received at the 2011 GE. That would make sense as a number of voters who identified themselves as non-PAP supporters voted for Tan Cheng Bock as well. The final proportion of the votes in favour of Tan Cheng Bock and Tony Tan versus Tan Kin Lian and Tan Jee Say seems about right when compared to the GE results.
Of course the Presidential Elections and the General Elections are two distinct processes but the political dynamics cannot be escaped, especially when there is an unofficially endorsed PAP candidate in the running. The divisions are set regardless of what’s at stake, even if that may be a limited scope of power in the role of a President.
It would seem more likely that the votes that were split were not the votes against establishment candidates but the votes for. In other words, those who would have voted for Tony Tan in a two-horse race, ended up splitting their votes with Tan Cheng Bock and gave him the unexpected boost to push the final tally to a much closer finish than expected.
The presence of Tan Jee Say and Tan Kin Lian was more beneficial to Tan Cheng Bock’s campaign than what many others are willing to give credit for.
It allowed Tan Cheng Bock to position himself in a manner that attracted voters who would not have voted for him in a direct two-horse race against Tony Tan. Tan Cheng Bock even asserted during the initial stages of his campaign, prior to the entrance of the other three Tans, that he was a good alternative and would not be a ‘yes man’ for the PAP (see HERE)), a stance that quietly softened as the campaign progressed.
With each additional rival candidate, Tan Cheng Bock was forced to refine his position further, and it pushed him towards a moderate stance that was appealing to both sides of the partisan divide. Hence contributing to the larger than expected share of the votes, a scenario that would not have occurred in a two-hore race.
Ultimately, we can only make educated guesses on what the possible outcomes would be in a hypothetical situation, and the scenario argued for in this article is one. So I certainly hope at the very least, everyone will stop speaking in the absolute sense, an imaginary victory for Tan Cheng Bock should there have been no contest from Tan Kin Lian and Tan Jee Say. That is simply presumptuous and furthermore disrespectful towards two men who had only the best of intentions in wanting to help their countrymen.
Nevertheless, what the end results of the Presidential Elections do show, is that there is a significant proportion of the electorate which does not agree completely with the PAP ethos. But as mentioned earlier, dissent only within PAP terms seems to be the preferred option. That should be the takeaway from this latest exercise in democracy.
–
Bhaskaran Kunju is a recent political science graduate.
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CSJ style comments not allowed here is a good thing but you forget to mention that anti-PAP comments may continue and issues and sound logic suspended for them.
To the author-
Writing an opinion article for the Straits Times anytime soon??
The presence of TJS and TKL surely did not give TCB an advantage. TJS voters would be seen as strong anti-establishment votes whom most given a second choice would have chosen Cheng Bok anytime.
Mate, if it was a two-horse race. How much of an educated guess is it to suppose the TJS voters will not overwhelmingly vote against TT?
Since TCB already secured quite a number of traditional PAP votes, do you really think TJS and TKL voters want to see the former deputy chairman of the GIC in charge of the Reserves?
There should have been primaries and secondarys. A 2nd vote, because less than 2% is inconclusive. A 2nd vote to determine who among the top two should be president.
I have found this author’s analysis of the situation rather bizzare. In my opinion it is an overly simplistic analysis of the situation.
The basis of the assumption is that the sum total of the Tony Tan and Tan CHeng Bock votes constitutes the PAP support – thus the choice is ” dissent only within PAP terms” .
Following the situation at least from my perspective – with the endorsement of the Unions ( at least the group that endorsed ), The Business community ( at least as per the endorsing entity ) and the carefully worded support of the PM – it is very clear that in this PE , the Authorities person was Tony Tan. Tan Cheng Bock at least from my perspective was not a friend of the establishment. Further he was not put up for re elections in the elections earlier – in short someone who has lost his usefullness. At least from Tan Cheng Bock’s open statement – he was not a PAP person – at least to me – he represented a people who did not want the PAP but wanted something that made sense. Of course Tan Jee Say took the group who are totally against PAP – and tan Kin Lian ran on a supposed independence ( actually it can be pushed that he too was actually someone with PAP pedigree ).
this elections has clearly shown us that there is a core ( very hard core ) of PAP supporters who will vote for a rock if it was PAP – no apparent reason or thought process. Similarly there is a hard group that will vote for an opposition for no reason whatsoever. But on the good side , there is a good 40% independents who will vote with thought and care – and this statistic is the reality of the Singapore electorate – at least now.
Of course we have some dummies who will waste their votes – totally disappointing.
As for the 40% being inherently PAP – to me is not right – they are people who will vote as per what they feel is right – which accounts for Tan Cheng Bock getting most of it – Tan Kin Lian did not measure up at prime time – could Tan Cheng Bock have come out looking better because Tan Kin Lian was not charismatic enough – I guess that is the topic of the next elections !!!
But at some level , I believe the writer has not got it right !!!!!
Voting TSJ are those they called extreme non establishments. As long as candidate as long as not from PAP.
We have a group who sit on the fence, they think they will vote a “credible candidate” and the candidate will NOT FIGHT PAP. These groups do not like PAP much but they believe they are thinkers and can decide for the country and look for someone they think can check and balance.
These 2 groups accounted for 60% of the voters. 4 horse race split the votes and help TT, no doubt. 2 horse race, TCB or TJS will win.
I think the gov did a good job to market the EP should be someone that should not fight with government and allow the government to function. This is why when TJS rebutted TT on ISA, many voters think TJS will fight with government, they swing to TCB.
At the end of the day, Singaporean are pretty dumb and easily manipulated by MSM. They are many fence sitters in Singapore, they love status quo, they still have not been burnt by high cost of living, HDB and massive import of foreigners. They just complain, thats all they do only.
No point flogging a dead horse of who is to blame. Phony Tony won, period. Let’s donate generously to help TJS set up a new party. It’s odd that super-politico star Nicole Seah publicly rejected the idea of leaving loser NSP to join winner TJS. Silly girl indeed.
My family’s choice: (1) TJS (2) TKL (3) TCB. We will never vote for TT and we think whoever vote for TT is out of their mind. Getting TT to check on PAP? Only fools think he can do it. Hence, like many, we think a four-horse race benefited only TT and not the other 3.
@Daffy 6 September 2011
…Let’s donate generously to help TJS set up a new party.
———————————-
Let’s donate generously to help Dr Chee Soon Juan pay off his defamation debts owing to LKY, GCT and LHL (about $750,000 total). This will release CJS from bankruptcy, and enable him to speak up in public, lead SDP effectively as Sec.Gen.
Better do it soon, before TJS establishes his new party and challenge Low Thia Kiang for supremacy as god father of Singapore’s Opposition. Of the three, LTK, TJS and Dr Chee, Dr Chee is the most competent, articulate, bilingual and trust worthy.
@tester
TCB received a combination of anti-establishment and moderate PAP votes, with the latter forming the largest proportion. The numbers would tally with GE results.
In a two-horse race, the moderate PAP voters will opt for TT ie. pro-PAP choice.
Apart from historical results, I’ve stated other reasons and explained plainly enough. several times. even within this comments section.
As someone who has never voted PAP, and coming from a family which has not voted for PAP for 3 generations, i can tell you that had it been a 2 horse race, bet TCB and TT, i would have spoilt my vote. Its an absolute NO NO. All tainted with the same brush. Likewise TKL, for all his rhetoric, and flirtations with the opposition parties, we dont buy it. If its a 3 horse race, i would still be spoiling my vote.
PAP, in whatever colour or shades, is still PAP. Whther TCB or TT, i dont feel there is any significant difference. the devil painted white black or yellow, is still the same devil.
IMHO.
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@Bhaskaran,
I don’t know how come he reached as a twisted conclusion? Something very wrong with your logic.
You had 1 government endorsed candidate and 3 non-endorsed candiates.
Please go back and think through again.
1. Consider the entire thought process a typical voter decides on who to vote for.
2. Study game theory.
3. If there is a second pass where voters are made to vote either for TT or TCB after eliminating TJS and TKL in the first pass, how would the typical voter now? The poll results always give you c
@ Bhaskaran
I don’t know how did you come to reach such a twisted conclusion.
You had 1 government endorsed candidate and 3 non-endorsed candidates in the race.
Rethink through your analysis:
1. Rethink the entire thought process that went through a voter’s mind when he decides to vote for a candidate.
2. Study game theory.
3. Consider if there is a second pass of voting for either TT or TCB after eliminating TJS and TKL, how would the typical voters vote now? The actual poll results will give you an idea of voters’ bias.
Analysis need not be complicated.
60% of PAP supporters would vote for Tony Tan: that’s 0.6*0.6 = 36% of total votes
40% of PAP supporters would vote for Tan Cheng Bock: that’s 0.4*0.6 = 24% of total votes
In one-to-one fight, rest of 40% anti-establishment would prefer to vote for Tan Cheng Bock (assuming spoilt votes disregarded).
So Tan Cheng Bock would get 24% + 40% = 64% of the total votes.
Final result: Tan Cheng Bock 64% / Tony Tan 36%
Too much analysis can lead to stiff fingers and paralysis of the mind as well as a twisted conclusion!