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What has Alex Au got to do with jobs and incomes?

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By Leong Sze Hian

I refer to the article “Supporters of blogger Alex Au issue statement” (Straits Times, Nov 30).

 

Inhibiting the right of free expression?

It states that “The right of free expression is enshrined in… our Constitution… The AGC’s action reflects an overzealous desire to police public opinion.

His supporters said that if the 61-year-old blogger had erred, his claims should be rebutted in public.”

 

3.9% real income growth last year?

On the same day, there was the front page headlines article “Real Income growth highest since 2008“, which said that “in real terms – after adjusting for inflation – workers’ incomes went up more this year. The 3.9 per cent rise was not only higher than last year’s 2.5 per cent, it was the highest increase since the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis”.

The above statistics are from the Ministry of manpower’s (MOM) Singapore Workforce 2013 report released on 29 November.

 

Difficulty in finding the report?

However, unlike in previous years, I cannot find the full report this morning- there was only a videographic.

I believe the full report was only available on the MOM web site at around noon time today. It could be that the way the web site showed how to access the full report in the past, may have been changed such that I was not able to find it.

So, unlike in the previous years, I am unable to do an analysis on the same day as the media publish their reports, to provide an alternative view of the statistics.

 

Part-time workers’ real income growth minus 2.6%?

Other than only the rosy real income growth reported in the media, the real income growth of part-time workers excluding employer CPF contribution last year was minus 2.6% – with no change in the nominal income of $800.

 

Part-time workers increase to 205,000?

In this connection, the number of part-time workers has increased from 196,800 to 205,000 last year. A part-time worker is one who works 35 hours or less in a week.

 

No more table showing “excluding employer CPF contribution” for last 5, 10 years?

There is also no longer a table to show the real median income growth excluding employer CPF contribution for the last 10 years and last 5 years.

As to “It also showed that in the current tight labour market, the proportion of locals entering the workforce was now greater than before.

He wrote on Facebook that the total higher employment rates were the result of a tight labour market and painstaking tripartite efforts to reduce barriers to employment.

He said he will continue to push for a higher re-employment age. Companies must now offer re-employment to eligible workers from age 62 up to 65. The NTUC wants this raised to 67.

As for local workers entering the labour force in record proportions, experts said this may not ease the burden felt by businesses currently struggling with a tight labour market.

“It depends on the rate of reduction of foreign labour,” said UOB economist Francis Tan.

He said the foreign worker policy continues to tighten in Singapore, with higher levies and stricter rules”

 

Resident unemployment rate increased?

– why has the non-seasonally adjusted resident unemployment rate increased from 3.7 to 3.9% last year, increasing to 82,600 from 2012′s 79,000 unemployed residents?

 

The labour market is tight, job growth is high, and yet the unemployment rate has risen?

No Singaporeans’ unemployment rate?

Also, why is there no longer a breakdown of the unemployment rate into residents and Singaporeans? In the past, the Singaporean unemployment rate was typically higher than the resident rate.

 

Highest unemployment rate was 5.4%

What I find to be rather strange is that the highest unemployment rate was for Service & Sales Workers at 5.4%. If this are the type of jobs which we have been consistently told that Singaporeans don’t want to work – why is the unemployment rate the highest?

Could it be due to the influx of foreign workers and the depression of wages in this job category, that may be the reason why Singaporeans who lose such jobs have a hard time finding another equivalent similar job with similar pay and working conditions?

In this connection, the basic median salary of shop sales assistants is only $1,074. I also understand that this Service & Sales Workers category has seen the highest number of jobs created in recent years.

 

$200 increase to $1,200 after 9 years?

I would also like to refer to the article “Low earners’ wages finally catch up” (Straits Times, Nov 30).

It states that “In July, operations support officer Siti Zaidah got her first promotion in nearly nine years, which came with a 20 per cent increase in pay amounting to $200.

“After the pay rise, things got a bit better,” said the 46-year-old, who now earns around $1,200 a month. “I can pay more of my bills, and I can go for some religious classes that I wanted to go for.”

– So, does it mean that after nine years, she only just received a $200 increment to just $1,200 at the age of 46? Does it mean that she was working for about only $1,000 for the last nine years?

 

400,000 workers earn less than $1,200?

In this connection, I estimate that there are about 400,000 resident workers (full and part-time) earning a gross income of less than $1,200.

With regard to “Low-income workers like her are finally getting wage rises that are in line with those for the rest of the country, according to preliminary figures released yesterday by the Manpower Ministry.

For workers at the 20th percentile of the income ladder, gross monthly incomes have risen 8.6 per cent to $1,885 over the past five years, after inflation is taken into account.

For those on the middle rungs of the ladder, real income has grown 9.7 per cent to $3,705 over this period”

 

Real income growth p.a. was 1.7%?

– So, does it mean that the real income growth per annum was only about 1.7 and 1.9% for the 20th percentile and median, respectively?

In respect of “In the previous five-year period, the gap was far wider.

From 2003 to 2008, gross monthly incomes actually fell by 0.6 per cent for workers at the 20th percentile, whereas median income growth was 7 per cent. That gave rise to a gap of 7.6 percentage points”

 

Real income growth p.a. last decade was 0.8%?

– does it mean that the real income growth per annum for the last decade was only about 0.8 and 1.6% for the 20th percentile and median, respectively?

However, the above are including employer CPF contribution, what was the real income growth per annum excluding employer CPF contribution?

 

1.2 % real median income growth last 11 years?

Since I estimate that the real growth in the Median Gross Monthly Income From Work of the Full-Time Employed (not all employed including part-time) per annum from 2002 to 2012 was only about 0.85 per cent – even with last year’s real income growth of 4.5 and 5.7% for all workers and full-time workers, respectively, does it mean that the real income growth per annum for the last 11 years was only about 1.2%?

 

0.6% 20th percentile real wage growth last 11 years?

Since I estimate that the 20th percentile of workers had only about 0.1 per cent per annum real wage growth (excluding employer CPF contribution) from 2002 to 2012 (“Lowest income had highest inflation & lowest pay rise?“, Feb 5) – and I am unable to find the real income growth for the last year, for the 20th percentile in the report – even if I assume that it was the same 5.7% as the median – does it mean that the real income growth per annum in the last 11 years was only about 0.6%?


No more statistics for all workers?

Since the above are for full-time workers, what are the statistics for all workers (full-time and part-time), which apparently are no longer published?

As to “Experts put the change down to the increased focus in recent years on helping low earners to catch up.

In addition, noted OCBC economist Selena Ling, curbs on foreign workers might have given employers an added impetus to improve the salaries of low-wage workers.

“Economic restructuring policies have also been more focused on low-skilled workers, with many efforts made to raise minimum wages in the past year or two,” she said”

– why is it that despite all the above initiatives – the estimated real growth per annum was still only about 0.6%?


Increase of only $6.18 per year for last 11 years?

To put this pathetic state of affairs into perspective – a low-wage worker at the 20th percentile earning $1,000 11 years ago, would only have had a real income increase to just about $1,068 now – a $6.18 increase per year over the last 11 years!

Does such a sad statistic justify the news article’s title of “Low earners’ wages finally catch up”?

 

What has Alex Au got to do with jobs and incomes?

So, let me get back to the original question which I asked at the beginning of this article – “What has Alex Au got to do with jobs and incomes?”

Well, like the 177 who have signed the statement supporting Alex Au are saying – that it affects the freedom of expression, fair comment and criticism of the Government – isn’t arguably having so much missing, incomplete or selective statistics as described above, kind of like limiting Singaporeans’ freedom of expression to analyse, make fair comment and criticise too?

 

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Commentaries

Lim Tean criticizes Govt’s rejection of basic income report, urges Singaporeans to rethink election choices

Lim Tean, leader of Peoples Voice (PV), criticizes the government’s defensive response to the basic living income report, accusing it of avoiding reality.

He calls on citizens to assess affordability and choose MPs who can truly enhance their lives in the upcoming election.

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SINGAPORE: A recently published report, “Minimum Income Standard 2023: Household Budgets in a Time of Rising Costs,” unveils figures detailing the necessary income households require to maintain a basic standard of living, using the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) method.

The newly released study, spearheaded by Dr Ng Kok Hoe of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) specifically focuses on working-age households in 2021 and presents the latest MIS budgets, adjusted for inflation from 2020 to 2022.

The report detailed that:

  • The “reasonable starting point” for a living wage in Singapore was S$2,906 a month.
  • A single parent with a child aged two to six required S$3,218 per month.
  • Partnered parents with two children, one aged between seven and 12 and the other between 13 and 18, required S$6,426 a month.
  • A single elderly individual required S$1,421 a month.
  • Budgets for both single and partnered parent households averaged around S$1,600 per member. Given recent price inflation, these figures have risen by up to 5% in the current report.

Singapore Govt challenges MIS 2023 report’s representation of basic needs

Regrettably, on Thursday (14 Sept), the Finance Ministry (MOF), Manpower Ministry (MOM), and Ministry of Social and Family Development (MSF) jointly issued a statement dismissing the idea suggested by the report, claiming that minimum household income requirements amid inflation “might not accurately reflect basic needs”.

Instead, they claimed that findings should be seen as “what individuals would like to have.”, and further defended their stances for the Progressive Wage Model (PWM) and other measures to uplift lower-wage workers.

The government argued that “a universal wage floor is not necessarily the best way” to ensure decent wages for lower-wage workers.

The government’s statement also questions the methodology of the Minimum Income Standards (MIS) report, highlighting limitations such as its reliance on respondent profiles and group dynamics.

“The MIS approach used is highly dependent on respondent profiles and on group dynamics. As the focus groups included higher-income participants, the conclusions may not be an accurate reflection of basic needs.”

The joint statement claimed that the MIS approach included discretionary expenditure items such as jewellery, perfumes, and overseas holidays.

Lim Tean slams Government’s response to basic living income report

In response to the government’s defensive reaction to the recent basic living income report, Lim Tean, leader of the alternative party Peoples Voice (PV), strongly criticizes the government’s apparent reluctance to confront reality, stating, “It has its head buried in the sand”.

He strongly questioned the government’s endorsement of the Progressive Wage Model (PWM) as a means to uplift the living standards of the less fortunate in Singapore, describing it as a misguided approach.

In a Facebook video on Friday (15 Sept), Lim Tean highlighted that it has become a global norm, especially in advanced and first-world countries, to establish a minimum wage, commonly referred to as a living wage.

“Everyone is entitled to a living wage, to have a decent life, It is no use boasting that you are one of the richest countries in the world that you have massive reserves, if your citizens cannot have a decent life with a decent living wage.”

Lim Tean cited his colleague, Leong Sze Hian’s calculations, which revealed a staggering 765,800 individuals in Singapore, including Permanent Residents and citizens, may not earn the recommended living wage of $2,906, as advised by the MIS report.

“If you take away the migrant workers or the foreign workers, and take away those who do not work, underage, are children you know are unemployed, and the figure is staggering, isn’t it?”

“You know you are looking at a very substantial percentage of the workforce that do not have sufficient income to meet basic needs, according to this report.”

He reiterated that the opposition parties, including the People’s Voice and the People’s Alliance, have always called for a minimum wage, a living wage which the government refuses to countenance.

Scepticism about the government’s ability to control rising costs

In a time of persistently high inflation, Lim Tean expressed skepticism about the government’s ability to control rising costs.

He cautioned against believing in predictions of imminent inflation reduction and lower interest rates below 2%, labeling them as unrealistic.

Lim Tean urged Singaporeans to assess their own affordability in these challenging times, especially with the impending GST increase.

He warned that a 1% rise in GST could lead to substantial hikes in everyday expenses, particularly food prices.

Lim Tean expressed concern that the PAP had become detached from the financial struggles of everyday Singaporeans, citing their high salaries and perceived insensitivity to the common citizen’s plight.

Lim Tean urges Singaporeans to rethink election choices

Highlighting the importance of the upcoming election, Lim Tean recommended that citizens seriously evaluate the affordability of their lives.

“If you ask yourself about affordability, you will realise that you have no choice, In the coming election, but to vote in a massive number of opposition Members of Parliament, So that they can make a difference.”

Lim Tean emphasized the need to move beyond the traditional notion of providing checks and balances and encouraged voters to consider who could genuinely improve their lives.

“To me, the choice is very simple. It is whether you decide to continue with a life, that is going to become more and more expensive: More expensive housing, higher cost of living, jobs not secure because of the massive influx of foreign workers,” he declared.

“Or you choose members of Parliament who have your interests at heart and who want to make your lives better.”

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Commentaries

Political observers call for review of Singapore’s criteria of Presidential candidates and propose 5 year waiting period for political leaders

Singaporean political observers express concern over the significantly higher eligibility criteria for private-sector presidential candidates compared to public-sector candidates, calling for adjustments.

Some also suggest a five year waiting period for aspiring political leaders after leaving their party before allowed to partake in the presidential election.

Notably, The Workers’ Party has earlier reiterated its position that the current qualification criteria favor PAP candidates and has called for a return to a ceremonial presidency instead of an elected one.

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While the 2023 Presidential Election in Singapore concluded on Friday (1 September), discussions concerning the fairness and equity of the electoral system persist.

Several political observers contend that the eligibility criteria for private-sector individuals running for president are disproportionately high compared to those from the public sector, and they propose that adjustments be made.

They also recommend a five-year waiting period for aspiring political leaders after leaving their party before being allowed to participate in the presidential election.

Aspiring entrepreneur George Goh Ching Wah, announced his intention to in PE 2023 in June. However, His application as a candidate was unsuccessful, he failed to receive the Certificate of Eligibility (COE) on 18 August.

Mr Goh had expressed his disappointment in a statement after the ELD’s announcement, he said, the Presidential Elections Committee (PEC) took a very narrow interpretation of the requirements without explaining the rationale behind its decision.

As per Singapore’s Constitution, individuals running for the presidency from the private sector must have a minimum of three years’ experience as a CEO in a company.

This company should have consistently maintained an average shareholders’ equity of at least S$500 million and sustained profitability.

Mr Goh had pursued eligibility through the private sector’s “deliberative track,” specifically referring to section 19(4)(b)(2) of the Singapore Constitution.

He pointed out five companies he had led for over three years, collectively claiming a shareholders’ equity of S$1.521 billion.

Notably, prior to the 2016 revisions, the PEC might have had the authority to assess Mr Goh’s application similarly to how it did for Mr Tan Jee Say in the 2011 Presidential Election.

Yet, in its current formulation, the PEC is bound by the definitions laid out in the constitution.

Calls for equitable standards across public and private sectors

According to Singapore’s Chinese media outlet, Shin Min Daily News, Dr Felix Tan Thiam Kim, a political analyst at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Singapore, noted that in 2016, the eligibility criteria for private sector candidates were raised from requiring them to be executives of companies with a minimum capital of S$100 million to CEOs of companies with at least S$500 million in shareholder equity.

However, the eligibility criteria for public sector candidates remained unchanged. He suggests that there is room for adjusting the eligibility criteria for public sector candidates.

Associate Professor Bilver Singh, Deputy Head of the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, believes that the constitutional requirements for private-sector individuals interested in running are excessively stringent.

He remarked, “I believe it is necessary to reassess the relevant regulations.”

He points out that the current regulations are more favourable for former public officials seeking office and that the private sector faces notably greater challenges.

“While it may be legally sound, it may not necessarily be equitable,” he added.

Proposed five-year waiting period for political leaders eyeing presidential race

Moreover, despite candidates severing ties with their political parties in pursuit of office, shedding their political affiliations within a short timeframe remains a challenging endeavour.

A notable instance is Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who resigned from the People’s Action Party (PAP) just slightly over a month before announcing his presidential candidacy, sparking considerable debate.

During a live broadcast, his fellow contender, Ng Kok Song, who formerly served as the Chief Investment Officer of GIC, openly questioned Mr Tharman’s rapid transition to a presidential bid shortly after leaving his party and government.

Dr Felix Tan suggests that in the future, political leaders aspiring to run for the presidency should not only resign from their parties but also adhere to a mandatory waiting period of at least five years before entering the race.

Cherian George and Kevin Y.L. Tan: “illogical ” to raise the corporate threshold in 2016

Indeed, the apprehension regarding the stringent eligibility criteria and concerns about fairness in presidential candidacy requirements are not limited to political analysts interviewed by Singapore’s mainstream media.

Prior to PE2023, CCherian George, a Professor of media studies at Hong Kong Baptist University, and Kevin Y.L. Tan, an Adjunct Professor at both the Faculty of Law of the National University of Singapore and the NTU’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), brought attention to the challenges posed by the qualification criteria for candidates vying for the Singaporean Presidency.

In their article titled “Why Singapore’s Next Elected President Should be One of its Last,” the scholars discussed the relevance of the current presidential election system in Singapore and floated the idea of returning to an appointed President, emphasizing the symbolic and unifying role of the office.

They highlighted that businessman George Goh appeared to be pursuing the “deliberative track” for qualification, which requires candidates to satisfy the PEC that their experience and abilities are comparable to those of a typical company’s chief executive with shareholder equity of at least S$500 million.

Mr Goh cobbles together a suite of companies under his management to meet the S$500m threshold.

The article also underscored the disparities between the eligibility criteria for candidates from the public and private sectors, serving as proxies for evaluating a candidate’s experience in handling complex financial matters.

“It is hard to see what financial experience the Chairman of the Public Service Commission or for that matter, the Chief Justice has, when compared to a Minister or a corporate chief.”

“The raising of the corporate threshold in 2016 is thus illogical and serves little purpose other than to simply reduce the number of potentially eligible candidates.”

The article also touches upon the issue of candidates’ independence from political parties, particularly the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).

It mentions that candidates are expected to be non-partisan and independent, and it questions how government-backed candidates can demonstrate their independence given their previous affiliations.

The Workers’ Party advocate for a return to a ceremonial presidency

It comes as no surprise that Singapore’s alternative party, the Workers’ Party, reaffirmed its stance on 30 August, asserting that they believe the existing qualifying criteria for presidential candidates are skewed in favour of those approved by the People’s Action Party (PAP).

They argue that the current format of the elected presidency (EP) undermines the principles of parliamentary democracy.

“It also serves as an unnecessary source of gridlock – one that could potentially cripple a non-PAP government within its first term – and is an alternative power centre that could lead to political impasses.”

Consistently, the Workers’ Party has been vocal about its objection to the elected presidency and has consistently called for its abolition.

Instead, they advocate for a return to a ceremonial presidency, a position they have maintained for over three decades.

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