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Are we looking at a future Singapore with Singaporeans being the minority in the workforce?

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Finding ways to adapt to shifts in tech skills
I refer to the article “Finding ways to adapt to shifts in tech, skills” (Straits Times, Jan 31). The article gives a scenerio of Singapore in the future, “It is 2020 and Singaporeans have wholeheartedly embraced artificial intelligence and innovation.”
What will 2026 look like
“This dystopian scenario, where the adoption of artificial intelligence negatively impacts societies, is one of 12 imagined by a Singapore think-tank of various situations the country might encounter over the next decade, till 2026.”
To prepare Singapore for the future
Through this exercise, the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) hopes to spark discussion on how Singapore can prepare itself for the future.
Scenario-planning
“About 100 academics, civil servants and private-sector leaders took part in scenario-planning workshops last August and September to discuss how trends in skills, innovation and longevity could impact Singapore. Their scenarios, and strategies to tackle them, were compiled into an Action Plan Singapore report put together by IPS and made available to the media last week.”
Missing the “obvious” question & scenario issues?
Why is it that, arguably, such an extensive study may seem to have missed the obvious question and scenario issues that many Singaporeans have been talking about – i.e. the huge influx of foreigners and the projected mix of foreign workers to Singaporean workers in the future?
Job growth next 10 years: 186,500 foreigners vs 57,000 locals? 
If the employment change in the last two years, from 2015 to 2016, continues into the future – by 2016 – the number of foreign workers to Singaporean workers added to the workforce may be about 186,500 (37,300 in 2015-16 x 5) foreign workers and 57,000 (11,400 in 2015-26 x 5) local workers (Singaporeans and permanent resident (PRs)).
This may translate into a mix of 2,314,600 (2016 – 2,257,600 + 57,000) local workers to 1,601,700 (2016 – 1,415,200 + 186,500) foreign workers.
1 Singaporean to 1 foreign worker?
As there is no breakdown of the local workforce into Singaporeans and PRs in the MOM labour reports – assuming the estimated percentage of PRs to be say about 15 per cent – the number of Singaporean workers may be about 1,967,410 (85% of 2,314,600)  and non-Singaporean workers (foreigners and PRs) about 1,948,890 (1,601,700 foreigners + 347,190 PRs (15% of 2,314,600)).
This would work out to a ratio of almost one Singaporean to one non-Singaporean worker.
Next 10 years: 300,000 new PRs, 200,000 new citizens?
However, with an average of about 30,000 new PRs and 20,000 new citizens granted annually – there be may another 300,000 (30,000 x 10 years) new PRs and 200,000 (20,000 x 10 years) new citizens in the next 10 years to 2016.
Minority in our own country?
So, if we adjust for new PRs and new citizens in the next 10 years – Singaporeans may become a minority of the workers in our own country.
As to “One way to avoid the above dystopian scenario from playing out is to commission a comprehensive review across industries, looking at the positive and negative impact of new technologies, the report said.
Findings can be used to craft programmes and policies to mitigate downsides, while playing up the advantages. To ensure workers are not completely replaced by artificial intelligence, ad-hoc training programmes can be replaced with mandatory industry-specific courses, under what the IPS has termed a Stay Ahead Scheme.
It also suggested that jobs and skill sets most likely to be displaced by artificial intelligence should be publicised, so that the Government and industries can target specific groups of workers to reskill them.
IPS senior research fellow Faizal Yahya said: “We have a scenario now where a degree doesn’t guarantee you a job. Employers are looking at skills relevant for their companies, for the future.”
It is necessary to have a framework to support displaced workers as such situations will become more commonplace as new technologies are developed, said Dr Faizal, who led discussions with participants on how innovation will affect Singapore’s social landscape.
Apart from coming up with future scenarios, participants also thought of strategies to help Singapore deal with the trends. IPS research fellows Christopher Gee and Teng Siao See led discussions on Singapore’s ageing population, as well as skill sets of Singaporeans.
One pertinent issue concerning the skill sets of employees is the difference between content taught in educational institutions and the skills required in the workplace.
How to compete in an unlevel playing field?
“Also suggested was an index to measure if an employee has the necessary capabilities for an industry. This way, employers have a better idea of what they are getting and workers are motivated to reskill themselves to remain relevant” – anecdotally, perhaps arguably, the greatest challenge that Singaporean workers may have been facing in recent years, may not so much be technological change, but having to compete with foreign workers from all over the world, who can come as tourists to look for jobs and then stay in Singapore, which no amount of skills upgrading or educational experience can match, as foreigners generally may be able to work for lower pay, at lower costs (no CPF contribution), no turnover problems for employers because they are typically on two-year contracts, no national service reservist leave for males, no maternity leave for females (foreign work permit holders), etc.
Will S’poreans ever get to see the “obvious”?
With regard to “Participants who have suggested specific strategies will meet again this year to talk about how their ideas can be implemented. The outcomes will be presented at an IPS conference in November” – will Singaporeans get to see the above “obvious” question and related scenario issues by November?

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Lim Tean criticizes Govt’s rejection of basic income report, urges Singaporeans to rethink election choices

Lim Tean, leader of Peoples Voice (PV), criticizes the government’s defensive response to the basic living income report, accusing it of avoiding reality.

He calls on citizens to assess affordability and choose MPs who can truly enhance their lives in the upcoming election.

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SINGAPORE: A recently published report, “Minimum Income Standard 2023: Household Budgets in a Time of Rising Costs,” unveils figures detailing the necessary income households require to maintain a basic standard of living, using the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) method.

The newly released study, spearheaded by Dr Ng Kok Hoe of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) specifically focuses on working-age households in 2021 and presents the latest MIS budgets, adjusted for inflation from 2020 to 2022.

The report detailed that:

  • The “reasonable starting point” for a living wage in Singapore was S$2,906 a month.
  • A single parent with a child aged two to six required S$3,218 per month.
  • Partnered parents with two children, one aged between seven and 12 and the other between 13 and 18, required S$6,426 a month.
  • A single elderly individual required S$1,421 a month.
  • Budgets for both single and partnered parent households averaged around S$1,600 per member. Given recent price inflation, these figures have risen by up to 5% in the current report.

Singapore Govt challenges MIS 2023 report’s representation of basic needs

Regrettably, on Thursday (14 Sept), the Finance Ministry (MOF), Manpower Ministry (MOM), and Ministry of Social and Family Development (MSF) jointly issued a statement dismissing the idea suggested by the report, claiming that minimum household income requirements amid inflation “might not accurately reflect basic needs”.

Instead, they claimed that findings should be seen as “what individuals would like to have.”, and further defended their stances for the Progressive Wage Model (PWM) and other measures to uplift lower-wage workers.

The government argued that “a universal wage floor is not necessarily the best way” to ensure decent wages for lower-wage workers.

The government’s statement also questions the methodology of the Minimum Income Standards (MIS) report, highlighting limitations such as its reliance on respondent profiles and group dynamics.

“The MIS approach used is highly dependent on respondent profiles and on group dynamics. As the focus groups included higher-income participants, the conclusions may not be an accurate reflection of basic needs.”

The joint statement claimed that the MIS approach included discretionary expenditure items such as jewellery, perfumes, and overseas holidays.

Lim Tean slams Government’s response to basic living income report

In response to the government’s defensive reaction to the recent basic living income report, Lim Tean, leader of the alternative party Peoples Voice (PV), strongly criticizes the government’s apparent reluctance to confront reality, stating, “It has its head buried in the sand”.

He strongly questioned the government’s endorsement of the Progressive Wage Model (PWM) as a means to uplift the living standards of the less fortunate in Singapore, describing it as a misguided approach.

In a Facebook video on Friday (15 Sept), Lim Tean highlighted that it has become a global norm, especially in advanced and first-world countries, to establish a minimum wage, commonly referred to as a living wage.

“Everyone is entitled to a living wage, to have a decent life, It is no use boasting that you are one of the richest countries in the world that you have massive reserves, if your citizens cannot have a decent life with a decent living wage.”

Lim Tean cited his colleague, Leong Sze Hian’s calculations, which revealed a staggering 765,800 individuals in Singapore, including Permanent Residents and citizens, may not earn the recommended living wage of $2,906, as advised by the MIS report.

“If you take away the migrant workers or the foreign workers, and take away those who do not work, underage, are children you know are unemployed, and the figure is staggering, isn’t it?”

“You know you are looking at a very substantial percentage of the workforce that do not have sufficient income to meet basic needs, according to this report.”

He reiterated that the opposition parties, including the People’s Voice and the People’s Alliance, have always called for a minimum wage, a living wage which the government refuses to countenance.

Scepticism about the government’s ability to control rising costs

In a time of persistently high inflation, Lim Tean expressed skepticism about the government’s ability to control rising costs.

He cautioned against believing in predictions of imminent inflation reduction and lower interest rates below 2%, labeling them as unrealistic.

Lim Tean urged Singaporeans to assess their own affordability in these challenging times, especially with the impending GST increase.

He warned that a 1% rise in GST could lead to substantial hikes in everyday expenses, particularly food prices.

Lim Tean expressed concern that the PAP had become detached from the financial struggles of everyday Singaporeans, citing their high salaries and perceived insensitivity to the common citizen’s plight.

Lim Tean urges Singaporeans to rethink election choices

Highlighting the importance of the upcoming election, Lim Tean recommended that citizens seriously evaluate the affordability of their lives.

“If you ask yourself about affordability, you will realise that you have no choice, In the coming election, but to vote in a massive number of opposition Members of Parliament, So that they can make a difference.”

Lim Tean emphasized the need to move beyond the traditional notion of providing checks and balances and encouraged voters to consider who could genuinely improve their lives.

“To me, the choice is very simple. It is whether you decide to continue with a life, that is going to become more and more expensive: More expensive housing, higher cost of living, jobs not secure because of the massive influx of foreign workers,” he declared.

“Or you choose members of Parliament who have your interests at heart and who want to make your lives better.”

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Political observers call for review of Singapore’s criteria of Presidential candidates and propose 5 year waiting period for political leaders

Singaporean political observers express concern over the significantly higher eligibility criteria for private-sector presidential candidates compared to public-sector candidates, calling for adjustments.

Some also suggest a five year waiting period for aspiring political leaders after leaving their party before allowed to partake in the presidential election.

Notably, The Workers’ Party has earlier reiterated its position that the current qualification criteria favor PAP candidates and has called for a return to a ceremonial presidency instead of an elected one.

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While the 2023 Presidential Election in Singapore concluded on Friday (1 September), discussions concerning the fairness and equity of the electoral system persist.

Several political observers contend that the eligibility criteria for private-sector individuals running for president are disproportionately high compared to those from the public sector, and they propose that adjustments be made.

They also recommend a five-year waiting period for aspiring political leaders after leaving their party before being allowed to participate in the presidential election.

Aspiring entrepreneur George Goh Ching Wah, announced his intention to in PE 2023 in June. However, His application as a candidate was unsuccessful, he failed to receive the Certificate of Eligibility (COE) on 18 August.

Mr Goh had expressed his disappointment in a statement after the ELD’s announcement, he said, the Presidential Elections Committee (PEC) took a very narrow interpretation of the requirements without explaining the rationale behind its decision.

As per Singapore’s Constitution, individuals running for the presidency from the private sector must have a minimum of three years’ experience as a CEO in a company.

This company should have consistently maintained an average shareholders’ equity of at least S$500 million and sustained profitability.

Mr Goh had pursued eligibility through the private sector’s “deliberative track,” specifically referring to section 19(4)(b)(2) of the Singapore Constitution.

He pointed out five companies he had led for over three years, collectively claiming a shareholders’ equity of S$1.521 billion.

Notably, prior to the 2016 revisions, the PEC might have had the authority to assess Mr Goh’s application similarly to how it did for Mr Tan Jee Say in the 2011 Presidential Election.

Yet, in its current formulation, the PEC is bound by the definitions laid out in the constitution.

Calls for equitable standards across public and private sectors

According to Singapore’s Chinese media outlet, Shin Min Daily News, Dr Felix Tan Thiam Kim, a political analyst at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Singapore, noted that in 2016, the eligibility criteria for private sector candidates were raised from requiring them to be executives of companies with a minimum capital of S$100 million to CEOs of companies with at least S$500 million in shareholder equity.

However, the eligibility criteria for public sector candidates remained unchanged. He suggests that there is room for adjusting the eligibility criteria for public sector candidates.

Associate Professor Bilver Singh, Deputy Head of the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, believes that the constitutional requirements for private-sector individuals interested in running are excessively stringent.

He remarked, “I believe it is necessary to reassess the relevant regulations.”

He points out that the current regulations are more favourable for former public officials seeking office and that the private sector faces notably greater challenges.

“While it may be legally sound, it may not necessarily be equitable,” he added.

Proposed five-year waiting period for political leaders eyeing presidential race

Moreover, despite candidates severing ties with their political parties in pursuit of office, shedding their political affiliations within a short timeframe remains a challenging endeavour.

A notable instance is Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who resigned from the People’s Action Party (PAP) just slightly over a month before announcing his presidential candidacy, sparking considerable debate.

During a live broadcast, his fellow contender, Ng Kok Song, who formerly served as the Chief Investment Officer of GIC, openly questioned Mr Tharman’s rapid transition to a presidential bid shortly after leaving his party and government.

Dr Felix Tan suggests that in the future, political leaders aspiring to run for the presidency should not only resign from their parties but also adhere to a mandatory waiting period of at least five years before entering the race.

Cherian George and Kevin Y.L. Tan: “illogical ” to raise the corporate threshold in 2016

Indeed, the apprehension regarding the stringent eligibility criteria and concerns about fairness in presidential candidacy requirements are not limited to political analysts interviewed by Singapore’s mainstream media.

Prior to PE2023, CCherian George, a Professor of media studies at Hong Kong Baptist University, and Kevin Y.L. Tan, an Adjunct Professor at both the Faculty of Law of the National University of Singapore and the NTU’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), brought attention to the challenges posed by the qualification criteria for candidates vying for the Singaporean Presidency.

In their article titled “Why Singapore’s Next Elected President Should be One of its Last,” the scholars discussed the relevance of the current presidential election system in Singapore and floated the idea of returning to an appointed President, emphasizing the symbolic and unifying role of the office.

They highlighted that businessman George Goh appeared to be pursuing the “deliberative track” for qualification, which requires candidates to satisfy the PEC that their experience and abilities are comparable to those of a typical company’s chief executive with shareholder equity of at least S$500 million.

Mr Goh cobbles together a suite of companies under his management to meet the S$500m threshold.

The article also underscored the disparities between the eligibility criteria for candidates from the public and private sectors, serving as proxies for evaluating a candidate’s experience in handling complex financial matters.

“It is hard to see what financial experience the Chairman of the Public Service Commission or for that matter, the Chief Justice has, when compared to a Minister or a corporate chief.”

“The raising of the corporate threshold in 2016 is thus illogical and serves little purpose other than to simply reduce the number of potentially eligible candidates.”

The article also touches upon the issue of candidates’ independence from political parties, particularly the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).

It mentions that candidates are expected to be non-partisan and independent, and it questions how government-backed candidates can demonstrate their independence given their previous affiliations.

The Workers’ Party advocate for a return to a ceremonial presidency

It comes as no surprise that Singapore’s alternative party, the Workers’ Party, reaffirmed its stance on 30 August, asserting that they believe the existing qualifying criteria for presidential candidates are skewed in favour of those approved by the People’s Action Party (PAP).

They argue that the current format of the elected presidency (EP) undermines the principles of parliamentary democracy.

“It also serves as an unnecessary source of gridlock – one that could potentially cripple a non-PAP government within its first term – and is an alternative power centre that could lead to political impasses.”

Consistently, the Workers’ Party has been vocal about its objection to the elected presidency and has consistently called for its abolition.

Instead, they advocate for a return to a ceremonial presidency, a position they have maintained for over three decades.

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