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“Min wages is not unabashedly good policy. But it is a good start that is also evidence-based,” says WP’s Jamus Lim

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Workers’ Party (WP) Jamus Lim took to his Facebook on Tuesday (14 July) to reiterate his point that implementing minimum wage in Singapore is “not unabashedly good policy”, but it’s rather a “good start that is also evidence-based”.

He said this in response to negative reactions that have emerged about the party’s manifesto for GE2020.

“There has been some pushback against the claim, from our #workersparty manifesto, that min wages is sound policy. Let me begin by emphasizing a position I’ve held from the start: min wages is not unabashedly good policy. But it is a good start that is also evidence-based,” Mr Lim wrote.

One of the key suggestions included in WP’s manifesto for this year’s election is putting in place a minimum take-home wage of S$1,300 per month for full-time work and pro-rated for part-time work. According to the party, this will provide some ease to over 100,000 Singaporeans who currently earn less than S$1,300 to meet their basic need.

In the post, Mr Lim explained that there is rarely “unambiguous evidence” in social sciences, adding that studies can produce difference results.

“Studies can yield different results, which is why continued research is important & policies should be based on the overall literature. That’s why I mentioned that many papers since Card-Krueger corroborate its findings,” he said.

He added, “The best way to aggregate and evaluate the totality of results is to rely on meta-analyses, which are studies of studies.”

“Meta-analyses take the existing results out there, and ask if there are systematic conclusions we can draw from the literature.”

He went on to explain that nearly all meta-analyses in the UK and US “find little or no employment effects” from minimum wages. As such, just like studies on anthropogenic climate chance, the “evidence mostly points in one direction, but it isn’t unanimous”, Mr Lim said.

“Very recent studies also tend to support the notion that min wages generate little employment effect, even for low-wage workers, and even when the jump is quite substantial. This is the main takaway from studies of Seattle’s recent min wage ordinance,” noted Mr Lim, who is an economics professor who holds a PhD in International Economics from the University of California, Santa Cruz.

He continued, “Of course, there are country-specific idiosyncrasies. That’s why before rolling out such a policy here, it is crucial that we have an evaluation framework in place, and an independent min wage-setting board, which can make on-the-fly adjustments in response to local conditions.”

Following that, Mr Lim, who is part of the winning team in Sengkang GRC for GE2020, pointed out that consumers and firms pay for the minimum wage, and not the government.

“Who pays for the minimum wage? Some people think this would cost the government. Actually, most min wage models have no fiscal impact, and the burden is borne mostly by higher prices consumers pay (3/4), and in part by firms (1/4).

“I see this as a feature, not a bug. The point is to redistribute some bargaining power from capital to labor, and I think we can afford to chip in a little to take care of the least well-off in society. With many more buyers than min wage workers, the price effect will be small,” he said.

Progressive Wage Model is not minimum wage

If that’s not all, Mr Lim also pointed out that he disagrees with some people who said that the Progressive Wage Model (PWM) is a minimum wage.

“One final point: some have suggested that the Progressive Wage Model (PWM) rolled out by the govt, is (in effect) a min wage. I don’t agree,” he wrote.

He explained that the “PWM ties wages to job function” and this gives a lot of space for employers to cut corners, without redressing power differentials.

“It also leaves those who simply cannot upskill in the lurch, and earning below a living wage. The reality is that, by our estimates, 100,000 workers remain below the min wage, and so PWM is obviously not working for these people,” he stated.

Based on the Ministry of Manpower, PWM “helps to uplift” low-wage Singaporeans and permanent resident workers who are working in sectors like cleaning, security and landscaping.

The model was first introduced for the cleaning sector in September 2015, and a minimum wage was implemented for workers in specific industries, as well as the required wage increase that the workers are supposed to get as they progress in their careers. This minimum wage amounts for each category are also adjusted incrementally over the years.

Just a day before Mr Lim’s post, Pro-People’s Action Party fanpage, Singapore Matters uploaded a post on its Facebook commenting about the minimum wage matter.

It said that no other explanations or arguments are needed besides this one statistic. The post stated that minimum wage was legislated in the US in 1938, however 40 million people still live in poverty today.

“No big arguments needed. Just one statistic. Minimum wage was legislated as Federal law in the US in 1938. 82 years later, million are still left behind,” it said.

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Labour

Singapore’s Manpower Ministry engages Dyson over last-minute layoff notice to union

The Ministry of Manpower (MOM) has engaged with Dyson following the company’s one-day notice to a labour union regarding retrenchments. MOM emphasised the importance of early notification to unions as per the Tripartite Advisory on Managing Excess Manpower. It noted that while Dyson is unionised, the retrenched professionals, managers, and executives (PMEs) are not covered by the union’s collective representation.

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SINGAPORE: The Ministry of Manpower (MOM) has initiated talks with Dyson after the company gave just one day’s notice to a labour union about a retrenchment exercise.

The United Workers of Electronics and Electrical Industries (UWEEI) had earlier requested a conciliation session to address the issue.

According to MOM’s statement on 3 October, the ministry met with Dyson on 2 October and plans to meet with the UWEEI to facilitate an amicable solution.

The dispute arose after UWEEI’s executive secretary, Patrick Tay, voiced the union’s disappointment that it was notified of the retrenchment just a day before Dyson laid off an unspecified number of workers on 1 October.

Tay expressed concern that the short notice did not allow enough time for discussions to ensure a fair and progressive retrenchment process.

He also highlighted that more time would have enabled better support for the affected employees.

According to MOM, under the Tripartite Advisory on Managing Excess Manpower and Responsible Retrenchment, unionised companies should give unions early notice when informing employees of retrenchments.

However, while Dyson is unionised, the professionals, managers, and executives (PMEs) who were laid off are not covered by the union’s collective representation.

“Hence the period of notice to inform UWEEI is negotiable,” MOM said.

However, MOM acknowledged that insufficient notice was given in this instance and stated its intent to work with both parties to improve communication going forward.

The Ministry also emphasised that the formula for calculating retrenchment benefits for PMEs does not necessarily have to follow the same criteria applied to rank-and-file workers.

The specific terms of such benefits are subject to negotiation between the union and the company, a position that has been agreed upon within Singapore’s tripartite framework.

MOM reaffirmed that it would mediate the issue if needed.

In its 3 October statement, MOM reiterated Singapore’s commitment to supporting businesses like Dyson that choose to invest in the country.

“We will work with these companies, economic agencies and NTUC to ensure that we remain both pro-worker and pro-growth.”

Mr Tay, who is also a Member of Parliament from ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), in an video message posted on UWEEI’s official Facebook page, urged Dyson executives affected by the retrenchment to seek assistance from the union in ensuring that their benefits are fair.

However, he noted that Dyson has not shared crucial details, such as the job levels of those impacted, which complicates the union’s efforts.

Tay explained that some affected workers had been instructed to keep their retrenchment packages confidential or risk losing them, further adding to the union’s concerns.

Although the union believes the package aligns with UWEEI’s standard of one month’s salary per year of service, Tay stated that uncertainty remains over whether the package is capped.

“That is why we are concerned that we have not received more information from Dyson on who the affected workers are or their job levels as Section 30A of the Industrial Relations Act also allows UWEEI to represent executives individually on retrenchment benefits.”

In response to the ongoing situation, UWEEI has established a task force to provide guidance to the retrenched employees, particularly in terms of job searches.

Tay also issued a public call for Dyson employees, especially PMEs, to join UWEEI so the union could better support them during such retrenchment exercises.

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Chris Kuan questions Singapore’s foreign workforce dependency and official statistics

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Former Singaporean banker Chris Kuan has raised important questions about the extent of Singapore’s dependency on foreign labour in a recent Facebook post.

His analysis, which critiques how official statistics are compiled, refers to the data released from the latest Population in Brief report published by the National Population and Talent Division (NPTD) of the Prime Minister’s Office.

According to the report, which was highlighted by Channel News Asia on 24 September 2024, Singapore’s total population exceeded six million for the first time, largely driven by growth in the non-resident population.

Of the 6.04 million people residing in Singapore as of June 2024, 1.86 million were non-residents, including foreign workers, domestic helpers, dependents, and international students.

Kuan focuses on this breakdown, which revealed that the non-resident population grew by 5% in the past year, with work permit holders and foreign domestic workers making up a significant share.

Work permit holders alone accounted for 44% of the non-resident population, while foreign domestic workers made up 15%.

These figures, he argues, illustrate the nation’s increasing reliance on foreign labour, which is often overlooked when discussing economic data.

In his analysis, Kuan estimates that over 2 million jobs in Singapore are held by foreigners, including Foreign Domestic Workers (FDWs).

According to the Department of Statistics, the number of employed persons is 3.8 million, with 2.4 million being resident workers. However, there is no breakdown of the resident workers into Singaporeans and Permanent Residents who are foreigners—even when asked in Parliament.

He noted that this number represents approximately 51% of the total workforce. When excluding FDWs from the calculation, foreign workers still account for 44% of the country’s jobs.

According to Kuan, this figure underscores how heavily the nation depends on non-resident workers, with more than half of these foreign jobs being in the Work Permit and FDW categories.

Kuan also critiqued the way Singapore’s official statistics are compiled, particularly by the Singapore Department of Statistics (SingStat).

He pointed out that economic measures such as the Gini coefficient, which tracks income inequality, as well as median household income and salaries, are typically calculated based on the resident population alone. This exclusion of nearly 30% of the population, which includes 1.1 million work permit holders and FDWs, creates a skewed perception of the nation’s economic reality.

The CNA report similarly notes that the non-resident population is subject to fluctuations based on Singapore’s social and economic needs, with sectors such as construction and marine shipyard work seeing the largest growth.

The Population in Brief report also highlights that the country’s resident employment has grown in sectors such as financial services, information technology, and professional services, which are predominantly filled by local workers.

Kuan argued that this selective focus on residents when reporting statistics results in an overly positive picture of Singapore’s wealth and economic performance.

He illustrated this point by referencing an online comment made in a Facebook group for Malaysians and Singaporeans living in Japan.

The commenter had falsely claimed that cleaners in Singapore earned S$3,000 per month, higher than the starting salary of fresh graduates in Japan.

Kuan debunked this claim, explaining that the actual salary for a cleaner in Singapore is closer to S$1,500, while fresh graduates in Japan typically earn around S$2,500 or more. He suggested that such misrepresentations stem from the limited perspective offered by focusing only on residents in economic data.

In his post, Kuan expressed concern that many Singaporeans have been “brainwashed” by these incomplete statistics, which exclude the foreign workforce that contributes substantially to the country’s GDP.

He emphasised that much of Singapore’s success in terms of wealth and GDP growth cannot be fully understood without acknowledging the role of non-residents, including Employment Pass holders, S Pass holders, Work Permit holders, and FDWs, as well as foreign students and dependents.

Kuan’s critique has added fuel to the ongoing debate about Singapore’s demographic and labour policies.

As the country continues to rely on foreign workers to support economic growth, the balancing act between resident and non-resident employment remains a central issue.

The CNA report noted that the Singapore government has consistently maintained that the foreign workforce is crucial to complementing the local workforce and allowing businesses to access a broader range of skills from the global talent pool.

However, Kuan’s post raises the question of whether the full economic impact of this dependency is being adequately reflected in public discourse and official statistics.

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