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Russia falls into recession as Western sanctions weigh on its economy

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2 years ago

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MOSCOW, RUSSIA — Russia has entered a recession, nine months after launching its offensive in Ukraine as Western sanctions weigh on the economy, according to official data published on Wednesday.

Gross domestic product shrank four per cent in the third quarter, according to a preliminary estimate by the national statistics agency Rosstat.

As that follows one of the same sizes in the second quarter, Russia now meets the technical definition of a recession with two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.

The four per cent drop in economic output between July and September was less than the 4.5 per cent contraction many analysts had expected, however.

The contraction was driven by a 22.6 per cent plunge in wholesale trade and a 9.1 per cent drop in retail trade.

Meanwhile, construction grew by 6.7 per cent and agriculture 6.2 per cent.

Russia’s economy has been struggling under a myriad of problems.

Western sanctions have limited exports and imports, including of key manufacturing components and spare parts.

Companies have also been suffering from a lack of staff as a partial mobilisation has taken several hundred thousand men out of the workforce.

Despite a contracting economy, Russia’s unemployment rate stood at 3.9 per cent in September, according to Rosstat.

As a result, the Russian economy has become even more dependent upon energy exports, which have accounted for about 40 per cent of federal government revenue.

According to the office of Boris Titov, the presidential commissioner for entrepreneurs, about a third of the 5,800 Russian companies recently surveyed had suffered a drop in sales in the past months.

The September mobilisation of 300,000 military reservists has impacted a third of companies, according to that same survey, the daily Kommersant said.

“The situation has continued to deteriorate, it’s no surprise,” said Dmitry Polevoy, director of investments at Locko Invest in Moscow.

Worse To Come?

Yet the Russian economy has so far survived Western sanctions better than many economists expected.

On November 8, the central bank predicted gross domestic product would contract by 3.5 per cent this year.

The IMF and the World Bank are respectively estimating a fall in Russian GDP of 3.4 per cent and 4.5 per cent.

The resilience of the economy is due in large part to the surge in global energy prices following the offensive in Ukraine and a restrictive monetary policy.

After Russia was hit by Western sanctions, the central bank drastically raised the key rate from 9.5 per cent to 20 per cent in a bid to counter inflation and prop up the ruble.

The Bank of Russia quickly reduced it thereafter and last month left it at 7.5 per cent in what governor Elvira Nabiullina called a sign of “adaptation” by the economy to a “new reality”.

But many analysts believe things are going to get worse for Russia’s economy before they improve.

“GDP could contract even more sharply, by up to seven per cent” in the fourth quarter, Polevoy told AFP.

Valery Mironov at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow said sanctions were having a delayed impact on the Russian economy.

“Problems are clearly already present, but in reality, we’re seeing their effects being pushed back to 2023,” he said, as the government has taken steps to support companies.

Central bank governor Nabiullina said last week that the Western sanctions were powerful and warned: “their impact on the Russian and global economy shouldn’t be underestimated.”

— AFP

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AFP

Singapore hangs 14th drug convict since last year

Singapore executed Mohd Aziz bin Hussain, convicted of drug trafficking, amid a resumption of executions in 2022. Another woman prisoner, Saridewi Djamani, faces execution.

Amnesty International urged Singapore to halt the executions, questioning the deterrent effect of the death penalty.

Published

1 year ago

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26 July 2023

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SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE — Singapore on Wednesday hanged a local man convicted of drug trafficking, officials said, two days before the scheduled execution of the first woman prisoner in the city-state in nearly 20 years.

Mohd Aziz bin Hussain, convicted and sentenced to death in 2017 for trafficking “not less than 49.98 grams” (1.76 ounces) of heroin, was executed at Changi Prison, the Central Narcotics Bureau said in a statement.

The 57-year-old was the 14th convict sent to the gallows since the government resumed executions in March 2022 after a two-year pause during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Hussain’s previous appeals against his conviction and sentence had been dismissed, and a petition for presidential clemency was also denied.

A woman drug convict, 45-year-old Saridewi Djamani, is scheduled to be hanged on Friday, according to the local rights group Transformative Justice Collective (TJC).

She was sentenced to death in 2018 for trafficking around 30 grams of heroin.

If carried out, Djamani would be the first woman executed in Singapore since 2004, when 36-year-old hairdresser Yen May Woen was hanged for drug trafficking, according to TJC activist Kokila Annamalai.

Singapore has some of the world’s toughest anti-drug laws — trafficking more than 500 grams of cannabis or over 15 grams of heroin can result in the death penalty.

Rights watchdog Amnesty International on Tuesday urged Singapore to halt the executions, saying there was no evidence the death penalty acted as a deterrent to crime.

“It is unconscionable that authorities in Singapore continue to cruelly pursue more executions in the name of drug control,” Amnesty death penalty expert Chiara Sangiorgio said in a statement.

Singapore, however, insists that the death penalty has helped make it one of Asia’s safest countries.

Among those hanged since last year was Nagaenthran K. Dharmalingam, whose execution sparked a global outcry, including from the United Nations and British tycoon Richard Branson, because he was deemed to have a mental disability.

— AFP

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AFP

Singapore to execute first woman in nearly 20 years: rights groups

Singapore set to execute two drug convicts, including first woman in 20 years, despite rights groups’ calls to stop.

Published

1 year ago

on

25 July 2023

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SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE — Singapore is set to hang two drug convicts this week, including the first woman to be sent to the gallows in nearly 20 years, rights groups said Tuesday, while urging the executions be halted.

Local rights organisation Transformative Justice Collective (TJC) said a 56-year-old man convicted of trafficking 50 grams (1.76 ounces) of heroin is scheduled to be hanged on Wednesday at the Southeast Asian city-state’s Changi Prison.

A 45-year-old woman convict who TJC identified as Saridewi Djamani is also set to be sent to the gallows on Friday. She was sentenced to death in 2018 for trafficking around 30 grams of heroin.

If carried out, she would be the first woman to be executed in Singapore since 2004 when 36-year-old hairdresser Yen May Woen was hanged for drug trafficking, said TJC activist Kokila Annamalai.

TJC said the two prisoners are Singaporeans and their families have received notices setting the dates of their executions.

Prison officials have not answered emailed questions from AFP seeking confirmation.

Singapore imposes the death penalty for certain crimes, including murder and some forms of kidnapping.

It also has some of the world’s toughest anti-drug laws: trafficking more than 500 grams of cannabis and 15 grams of heroin can result in the death penalty.

At least 13 people have been hanged so far since the government resumed executions following a two-year hiatus in place during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Rights watchdog Amnesty International on Tuesday urged Singapore to halt the impending executions.

“It is unconscionable that authorities in Singapore continue to cruelly pursue more executions in the name of drug control,” Amnesty’s death penalty expert Chiara Sangiorgio said in a statement.

“There is no evidence that the death penalty has a unique deterrent effect or that it has any impact on the use and availability of drugs.

“As countries around the world do away with the death penalty and embrace drug policy reform, Singapore’s authorities are doing neither,” Sangiorgio added.

Singapore insists that the death penalty is an effective crime deterrent.

— AFP

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