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In wargame exercise, China fails to take Taiwan: US thinktank

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2 years ago

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WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES — A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely fail if the United States helps defend the island — but at a debilitating cost to the American military itself, according to a US think tank Monday.

Military experts brought together by the Center for Strategic and International Studies to wargame the conflict said every likely direct participant in a war — the United States, China, Taiwan and Japan — would experience “enormous” losses.

Chinese missiles would likely destroy US air bases in Japan and as far as Guam, and sink two US aircraft carriers and between 10 and 20 destroyers and cruisers as the invasion opened.

But the Chinese invading force itself would be heavily destroyed before it ever occupied any significant part of Taiwan.

Ultimately it would be prevented from its goal of capturing the island’s capital Taipei, according to most scenarios tested.

That, as well as damage incurred on mainland targets from Taiwanese counterattacks, could destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule, the report says.

“We reached two conclusions,” said Eric Heginbotham, a security expert at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“First, under most circumstances, China is unlikely to succeed in its operational objectives, or to occupy Taipei,” he said.

“Second, the cost of war would be high for all involved, certainly to include the United States.”

The wargaming tested 24 different scenarios focused on China attempting to seize the island by invasion in 2026.

Crucial was the United States: without America’s help, Taiwan would be conquered by the People’s Liberation Army in three months or less.

The wargame assumed the invasion would begin with an opening bombardment by China that destroys most of Taiwan’s navy and air force in a few hours.

The Chinese navy would encircle Taiwan and begin ferrying a landing force of thousands of PLA soldiers and their equipment across the Taiwan Strait.

In what the wargamers called the most likely scenario, Taiwan’s army would bog the invaders down on the coast.

“Meanwhile US submarines, bombers, and fighter/attack aircraft, often reinforced by Japan Self-Defense Forces, rapidly cripple the Chinese amphibious fleet,” the report said.

“China’s strikes on Japanese bases and US surface ships cannot change the result: Taiwan remains autonomous,” it said.

Pyrrhic victory?

Matthew Cancian of the US Naval War College said there were crucial variables on which that success depends.

First, he said, Taiwan itself must be determined to fight back.

Secondly, Japan must give its permission for the United States to launch counterattacks from its bases on Japanese territory.

Without that, Cancian said, “then the US intervention would not be enough to continue Taiwan’s autonomy.”

In such cases the human losses would be high, with some 10,000 in the first weeks of the war.

The wargame raised important unknowns, such as whether the United States would risk nuclear war by attacking China directly.

Secondly, it asked if the US and Japanese public would be prepared to accept the losses that came with defending Taiwan.

It said US losses could damage Washington’s ability to project global power for a very long time.

“The United States might win a pyrrhic victory, suffering more in the long run than the ‘defeated’ Chinese,” the report said.

The report said both Taiwan and the US military need to build up forces, focusing on the most survivable and effective weapons, to create more deterrence to a Chinese invasion.

“Despite rhetoric about adopting a ‘porcupine strategy,’ Taiwan still spends most of its defence budget on expensive ships and aircraft that China will quickly destroy,” it said.

— AFP

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AFP

Singapore hangs 14th drug convict since last year

Singapore executed Mohd Aziz bin Hussain, convicted of drug trafficking, amid a resumption of executions in 2022. Another woman prisoner, Saridewi Djamani, faces execution.

Amnesty International urged Singapore to halt the executions, questioning the deterrent effect of the death penalty.

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1 year ago

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26 July 2023

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SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE — Singapore on Wednesday hanged a local man convicted of drug trafficking, officials said, two days before the scheduled execution of the first woman prisoner in the city-state in nearly 20 years.

Mohd Aziz bin Hussain, convicted and sentenced to death in 2017 for trafficking “not less than 49.98 grams” (1.76 ounces) of heroin, was executed at Changi Prison, the Central Narcotics Bureau said in a statement.

The 57-year-old was the 14th convict sent to the gallows since the government resumed executions in March 2022 after a two-year pause during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Hussain’s previous appeals against his conviction and sentence had been dismissed, and a petition for presidential clemency was also denied.

A woman drug convict, 45-year-old Saridewi Djamani, is scheduled to be hanged on Friday, according to the local rights group Transformative Justice Collective (TJC).

She was sentenced to death in 2018 for trafficking around 30 grams of heroin.

If carried out, Djamani would be the first woman executed in Singapore since 2004, when 36-year-old hairdresser Yen May Woen was hanged for drug trafficking, according to TJC activist Kokila Annamalai.

Singapore has some of the world’s toughest anti-drug laws — trafficking more than 500 grams of cannabis or over 15 grams of heroin can result in the death penalty.

Rights watchdog Amnesty International on Tuesday urged Singapore to halt the executions, saying there was no evidence the death penalty acted as a deterrent to crime.

“It is unconscionable that authorities in Singapore continue to cruelly pursue more executions in the name of drug control,” Amnesty death penalty expert Chiara Sangiorgio said in a statement.

Singapore, however, insists that the death penalty has helped make it one of Asia’s safest countries.

Among those hanged since last year was Nagaenthran K. Dharmalingam, whose execution sparked a global outcry, including from the United Nations and British tycoon Richard Branson, because he was deemed to have a mental disability.

— AFP

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AFP

Singapore to execute first woman in nearly 20 years: rights groups

Singapore set to execute two drug convicts, including first woman in 20 years, despite rights groups’ calls to stop.

Published

1 year ago

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25 July 2023

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SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE — Singapore is set to hang two drug convicts this week, including the first woman to be sent to the gallows in nearly 20 years, rights groups said Tuesday, while urging the executions be halted.

Local rights organisation Transformative Justice Collective (TJC) said a 56-year-old man convicted of trafficking 50 grams (1.76 ounces) of heroin is scheduled to be hanged on Wednesday at the Southeast Asian city-state’s Changi Prison.

A 45-year-old woman convict who TJC identified as Saridewi Djamani is also set to be sent to the gallows on Friday. She was sentenced to death in 2018 for trafficking around 30 grams of heroin.

If carried out, she would be the first woman to be executed in Singapore since 2004 when 36-year-old hairdresser Yen May Woen was hanged for drug trafficking, said TJC activist Kokila Annamalai.

TJC said the two prisoners are Singaporeans and their families have received notices setting the dates of their executions.

Prison officials have not answered emailed questions from AFP seeking confirmation.

Singapore imposes the death penalty for certain crimes, including murder and some forms of kidnapping.

It also has some of the world’s toughest anti-drug laws: trafficking more than 500 grams of cannabis and 15 grams of heroin can result in the death penalty.

At least 13 people have been hanged so far since the government resumed executions following a two-year hiatus in place during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Rights watchdog Amnesty International on Tuesday urged Singapore to halt the impending executions.

“It is unconscionable that authorities in Singapore continue to cruelly pursue more executions in the name of drug control,” Amnesty’s death penalty expert Chiara Sangiorgio said in a statement.

“There is no evidence that the death penalty has a unique deterrent effect or that it has any impact on the use and availability of drugs.

“As countries around the world do away with the death penalty and embrace drug policy reform, Singapore’s authorities are doing neither,” Sangiorgio added.

Singapore insists that the death penalty is an effective crime deterrent.

— AFP

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