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HDB rolls out increased BTO supply amid moderation in resale market

Singapore’s Housing Development Board (HDB) plans a 35% surge in BTO flats for H2 2023 amid a slight cooling in the resale market. HDB also shares updates on the changing landscape of Singapore’s public housing market for Q2 2023.

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SINGAPORE: The Housing Development Board (HDB) of Singapore, in a recent press release, shared their plans for the upcoming supply of flats for the second half of 2023, as well as crucial updates on the HDB resale and rental markets for Q2 2023.

To address the mounting housing demand, the HDB has augmented the Build-To-Order (BTO) flats supply by 35% over the years – it has risen from 17,100 flats in 2021 to a robust 23,000 flats in 2023. Of the total BTO flats for 2023, approximately 10,000 have been rolled out in the first half, with an additional 13,000 planned for launch in H2 2023.

The next sales exercise will be postponed to late September or early October 2023 from the usual period of late August/early September.

This change in schedule accounts for the ballot results of the May BTO and Sales of Balance Flats exercise, enabling applicants to better understand their queue position before deciding to apply for a flat in the next launch.

Additionally, the delay allows HDB more time to finalise the system changes required for the new First-Timer (Parents & Married Couples) priority category.

For the upcoming BTO sales exercise, HDB will offer around 6,700 flats across multiple locations including Choa Chu Kang, Kallang Whampoa, Queenstown, and Tengah.

The final 2023 sales exercise in December will make available about 6,300 flats in areas such as Bedok, Bishan, Bukit Merah, Bukit Panjang, Jurong West, Queenstown, and Woodlands.

From the 3Q 2023 sales exercise onwards, it is mandatory for flat buyers to possess a valid HDB Flat Eligibility (HFE) letter. As the HFE letter has a validity period of six months, HDB encourages prospective buyers to apply for their HFE letter by mid-August 2023 to prevent any possible delays for their flat application in the next sales exercise.

Moving onto the HDB resale market, the board has observed a slight moderation in the rate of increase in resale prices.

This is attributed to the Government’s proactive measures in ensuring a steady supply of flats, in addition to the implementation of measures to promote a stable and sustainable property market.

These measures include a wait-out period of 15 months for private property owners before they can purchase a non-subsidised HDB resale flat, as well as the lowering of the Loan-to-Value (LTV) limit for HDB housing loans from 90% to 85%, and then to 80%.

The HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) for Q2 2023 is reported as 176.2, a rise of 1.5% over Q1 2023. This indicates a moderate growth as compared to the average quarterly growth of 2.5% in 2022. Resale transactions fell by 6.7% from 6,979 cases in Q1 2023 to 6,514 in Q2 2023.

On the HDB rental market front, the number of approved applications to rent out HDB flats increased by 1.9% from 9,657 cases in Q1 2023 to 9,842 cases in Q2 2023.

As of Q2 2023, a total of 56,858 HDB flats were being rented out, marking a 0.4% growth from the previous quarter.

Reacting to the released data, Dr Tan Tee Khoon, Country Manager – Singapore, PropertyGuru, highlighted that the persistent demand for larger flats in the post-pandemic period continues to fuel the HDB resale prices’ rise.

The growth in prices was driven predominantly by 4-room and 5-room HDB resale flat transactions, which made up 45.8% and 23.4% of the overall transactions in Q2 2023, respectively.

Despite the consecutive growth, Dr Tan noted a slowing in price growth and a dip in transaction volumes, which could suggest that the HDB resale market may be nearing its peak.

He also credited the property cooling measures introduced in September 2022 with moderating the number of million-dollar HDB flats by deterring more private property owners from ‘rightsizing’ to HDB flats.

However, as the BTO supply is reinstated and more BTO flats are launched, Dr Tan expects that buyers will shift their focus away from the resale market. Furthermore, an influx of resale flats is anticipated as approximately 16,000 flats are projected to meet their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2023. This increase in supply is expected to reduce pressure to match high asking prices and further moderate HDB resale flat prices.

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Housing

Bukit Panjang makes history with first-ever million-dollar resale flat

In September, a Bukit Panjang HDB executive resale flat achieved a historic milestone, selling for $1.02 million, the first in the estate to breach the million-dollar mark.

As per SRI, 2023 has seen 322 million-dollar HDB resale deals to date, compared to 369 in 2022.

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SINGAPORE: The serene residential enclave of Bukit Panjang has witnessed its first-ever million-dollar Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat sale, sending shockwaves through the local real estate market.

The record-breaking transaction occurred in September when a spacious 127 square meter (1,367 square feet) executive apartment, situated on levels 28 to 38 of Block 181 Jelebu Road, changed hands for a staggering $1.02 million, equating to a price per square foot (psf) of $746.

As per Singapore Realtors Inc (SRI), this highly coveted flat boasts a prime location nestled between the 28th and 30th floors of Block 181, a well-established development along Jelebu Road, completed in 2003.

Block 181 is renowned for its diverse mix of four-room, five-room, and executive flats.

The flat’s lease commenced in 2003, making the development approximately 20 years old.

SRI highlighted that Bukit Panjang has faced a scarcity of Build-to-Order (BTO) projects in recent years, with the last BTO launch dating back to 2016.

Consequently, resale properties within this sought-after enclave of Bukit Panjang have become a preferred choice among homebuyers seeking a place to call their own.

The strategic positioning of this development further enhances its appeal, offering close proximity to key amenities such as the Bukit Panjang MRT station on the downtown line (approximately 148 meters away), the bustling Hillion Mall, and the Bukit Panjang Integrated Transport Hub, just a short 5-minute walk away.

This enviable accessibility to public transportation and shopping centers positions this resale flat as an attractive and practical option for those seeking a convenient and comfortable living experience in Bukit Panjang.

A range of schools is conveniently located within a 1 to 2-kilometer radius of the HDB resale flat, including West View Primary School, Zhenghua Primary School, Greenridge Primary School, Bukit Panjang Primary School, Chua Chu Kang Secondary School, and West Spring Secondary School.

322 Million-Dollar deals to date

According to SRI, to date, a total of 322 million-dollar HDB resale deals have transpired within the first nine months of 2023, in contrast to the 369 million-dollar deals recorded in 2022.

Over the past few years, numerous residential estates across the island have borne witness to the phenomenon of million-dollar transactions, with notable exceptions being Choa Chu Kang, Jurong West, Sembawang, and Sengkang.

Singapore in August this year witnessed a significant surge in the resale market for HDB flats, a total of 54 HDB resale flats were transacted for at least $1,000,000, marking a notable increase compared to July 2023, which saw 32 such transactions, and June of the same year, with 34 million-dollar flat sales.

This is also the highest volume of resale flats transacted for at least $1 million to date, according to data from the Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX) issued on September.

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Property

Singapore’s property market now considered fairly valued, UBS report

Singapore’s private residential property market has transitioned into a state of fair valuation, according to a recent UBS report. Despite a 15% increase in real prices since 2018, stricter regulations and cooling measures have caused home prices to rise by only 3% in inflation-adjusted terms between mid-2022 and mid-2023.

Additionally, rents, which have surged by approximately 40% over the same period, are expected to soften.

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A recent UBS report has reclassified Singapore’s private residential property market as “fairly valued” after a period of slowed price dynamics.

Real estate prices surged by 15% since 2018, despite regulatory tightening, while rents spiked by approximately 40% over the same period.

However, cooling measures and stricter lending policies have led to a modest 3% increase in home prices in inflation-adjusted terms between mid-2022 and mid-2023.

UBS anticipates both home price growth moderation and rent softening as housing supply increases and demand stabilises.

Regulatory risks are a key concern, as rental market regulations remain a possibility.

Affordability, as measured by the price-to-income ratio, is stretched in numerous cities despite recent house price declines.

Unaffordable housing is often attributed to factors such as strong foreign investment, zoning restrictions, or strict rental market regulations.

Weak investment demand poses risks of price corrections and long-term price appreciation challenges.

In Singapore, it takes an average service worker ten years of income to afford a 650 sq ft flat near the city centre, making it more affordable than in Hong Kong, where it would take 22 times the average annual income.

Among other cities, Miami, Madrid, and Toronto exhibit more sustainable price-to-income ratios.

Singapore ranks sixth for affordability among 25 cities surveyed by UBS.

Price-to-rent multiples have declined compared to the previous year, with a Singapore apartment taking around 23 years of rent to pay for itself, in contrast to 15 years in Miami and 42 years in Tel Aviv.

UBS found that real housing prices across 25 major cities had dropped by 5% in inflation-adjusted terms on average.

Rising financing costs due to tripled average mortgage rates since 2021 have hindered housing price growth.

The report highlights that annual nominal price growth stagnated after a 10% rise in the cities analysed, with many cities now approaching mid-2020 price levels.

Only Zurich and Tokyo remain in the bubble risk category this year, with several cities previously in this category, including Toronto, Frankfurt, Munich, Hong Kong, Vancouver, Amsterdam, and Tel Aviv, now classified as overvalued.

This group also includes housing markets such as Miami, Geneva, Los Angeles, London, Stockholm, Paris, and Sydney.

Apart from Singapore, other property markets deemed “fairly valued” by UBS include New York, Boston, San Francisco, Madrid, Milan, Sao Paulo, Warsaw, and Dubai.

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