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URA’s Q2 2023 report indicates slowdown in private housing price and rental momentum in Singapore

Singapore’s Urban Redevelopment Authority’s Q2 2023 report reveals a notable slowdown in the private housing sector. While prices and rentals continue to rise, the pace is decelerating, indicating potential market stabilization.

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SINGAPORE: The Singapore Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released its real estate statistics for Q2 2023 today, revealing a slowdown in price and rental momentum in the private housing market.

The overall private housing prices saw a slight decline in the second quarter for the first time since Q1 2020. This is attributed to a dip in prices for non-landed properties and a significant moderation in the price increase for landed properties.

The report also noted that private residential property rentals rose at a slower pace of 2.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2023, in comparison to the 7.2% increase in the previous quarter. This marks the smallest quarter-on-quarter gain since Q4 2021.

The URA statistics further indicated a doubling of private housing supply completions in the first half of 2023, compared to the same period in 2022. The year 2023 is expected to witness the completion of about 20,500 private residential units, the highest annual private housing supply completion since 2017.

The URA added that supply of private housing via the Government Land Sales Programme has been ramped up for the third consecutive year, with the total Confirmed List supply of around 9,250 units for 2023 being the highest in a decade.

Prices of private residential properties declined by 0.2% in Q2 2023 following a 3.3% gain in the previous quarter. Prices of landed properties increased by 1.1%, a significant moderation from the 5.9% increase in the previous quarter. Prices of non-landed properties decreased by 0.6%, a reversal from the 2.6% increase in the previous quarter.

Rental momentum eased across all market segments, and developers launched 2,374 uncompleted private residential units (excluding ECs) for sale in Q2 2023, compared with 1,312 units in the previous quarter. The number of resale and sub-sale transactions also saw an increase.

The URA report concluded that based on expected completion dates reported by developers, approximately 12,306 units (including ECs) will be completed in the second half of 2023.

Commenting on the URA’s statistics, Dr Tan Tee Khoon, Country Manager – Singapore, PropertyGuru, noted, “Private residential property prices dropped 0.2% in Q2 2023 after a 3.3% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2023. This marks the first quarter of price drop after twelve consecutive quarters of price growth.”

Dr Tan attributed the drop to the property cooling measures introduced in April 2023, which significantly reduced the number of private properties bought by foreigners. “In lieu of the adjusted Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) rates, the number of private properties bought by foreigners dropped nearly 23.0% QoQ (according to URA caveats lodged as of 25 July 2023).”

Dr Tan also highlighted the strong demand from Singapore Citizens and Permanent Residents (PRs) for new condo launches in Q2 2023. The overall transaction volumes for uncompleted private residential units increased, rising 73.9% QoQ due to a low base in Q1. However, it fell by 10.0% YoY, due to the increased cost of acquiring investment property.

Regarding the biggest price drop, Dr Tan noted, “Following the 4.4% price growth recorded in Q1 2023, the Rest of Central Region (RCR) saw a 2.5% decrease in Q2 2023 for non-landed private property prices. This dip is the largest QoQ decline observed among the three regions. Although price moderation was observed, the major new condo launches in the RCR were well-received and bolstered prices in the region.”

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Housing

Bukit Panjang makes history with first-ever million-dollar resale flat

In September, a Bukit Panjang HDB executive resale flat achieved a historic milestone, selling for $1.02 million, the first in the estate to breach the million-dollar mark.

As per SRI, 2023 has seen 322 million-dollar HDB resale deals to date, compared to 369 in 2022.

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SINGAPORE: The serene residential enclave of Bukit Panjang has witnessed its first-ever million-dollar Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat sale, sending shockwaves through the local real estate market.

The record-breaking transaction occurred in September when a spacious 127 square meter (1,367 square feet) executive apartment, situated on levels 28 to 38 of Block 181 Jelebu Road, changed hands for a staggering $1.02 million, equating to a price per square foot (psf) of $746.

As per Singapore Realtors Inc (SRI), this highly coveted flat boasts a prime location nestled between the 28th and 30th floors of Block 181, a well-established development along Jelebu Road, completed in 2003.

Block 181 is renowned for its diverse mix of four-room, five-room, and executive flats.

The flat’s lease commenced in 2003, making the development approximately 20 years old.

SRI highlighted that Bukit Panjang has faced a scarcity of Build-to-Order (BTO) projects in recent years, with the last BTO launch dating back to 2016.

Consequently, resale properties within this sought-after enclave of Bukit Panjang have become a preferred choice among homebuyers seeking a place to call their own.

The strategic positioning of this development further enhances its appeal, offering close proximity to key amenities such as the Bukit Panjang MRT station on the downtown line (approximately 148 meters away), the bustling Hillion Mall, and the Bukit Panjang Integrated Transport Hub, just a short 5-minute walk away.

This enviable accessibility to public transportation and shopping centers positions this resale flat as an attractive and practical option for those seeking a convenient and comfortable living experience in Bukit Panjang.

A range of schools is conveniently located within a 1 to 2-kilometer radius of the HDB resale flat, including West View Primary School, Zhenghua Primary School, Greenridge Primary School, Bukit Panjang Primary School, Chua Chu Kang Secondary School, and West Spring Secondary School.

322 Million-Dollar deals to date

According to SRI, to date, a total of 322 million-dollar HDB resale deals have transpired within the first nine months of 2023, in contrast to the 369 million-dollar deals recorded in 2022.

Over the past few years, numerous residential estates across the island have borne witness to the phenomenon of million-dollar transactions, with notable exceptions being Choa Chu Kang, Jurong West, Sembawang, and Sengkang.

Singapore in August this year witnessed a significant surge in the resale market for HDB flats, a total of 54 HDB resale flats were transacted for at least $1,000,000, marking a notable increase compared to July 2023, which saw 32 such transactions, and June of the same year, with 34 million-dollar flat sales.

This is also the highest volume of resale flats transacted for at least $1 million to date, according to data from the Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX) issued on September.

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Property

Singapore’s property market now considered fairly valued, UBS report

Singapore’s private residential property market has transitioned into a state of fair valuation, according to a recent UBS report. Despite a 15% increase in real prices since 2018, stricter regulations and cooling measures have caused home prices to rise by only 3% in inflation-adjusted terms between mid-2022 and mid-2023.

Additionally, rents, which have surged by approximately 40% over the same period, are expected to soften.

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A recent UBS report has reclassified Singapore’s private residential property market as “fairly valued” after a period of slowed price dynamics.

Real estate prices surged by 15% since 2018, despite regulatory tightening, while rents spiked by approximately 40% over the same period.

However, cooling measures and stricter lending policies have led to a modest 3% increase in home prices in inflation-adjusted terms between mid-2022 and mid-2023.

UBS anticipates both home price growth moderation and rent softening as housing supply increases and demand stabilises.

Regulatory risks are a key concern, as rental market regulations remain a possibility.

Affordability, as measured by the price-to-income ratio, is stretched in numerous cities despite recent house price declines.

Unaffordable housing is often attributed to factors such as strong foreign investment, zoning restrictions, or strict rental market regulations.

Weak investment demand poses risks of price corrections and long-term price appreciation challenges.

In Singapore, it takes an average service worker ten years of income to afford a 650 sq ft flat near the city centre, making it more affordable than in Hong Kong, where it would take 22 times the average annual income.

Among other cities, Miami, Madrid, and Toronto exhibit more sustainable price-to-income ratios.

Singapore ranks sixth for affordability among 25 cities surveyed by UBS.

Price-to-rent multiples have declined compared to the previous year, with a Singapore apartment taking around 23 years of rent to pay for itself, in contrast to 15 years in Miami and 42 years in Tel Aviv.

UBS found that real housing prices across 25 major cities had dropped by 5% in inflation-adjusted terms on average.

Rising financing costs due to tripled average mortgage rates since 2021 have hindered housing price growth.

The report highlights that annual nominal price growth stagnated after a 10% rise in the cities analysed, with many cities now approaching mid-2020 price levels.

Only Zurich and Tokyo remain in the bubble risk category this year, with several cities previously in this category, including Toronto, Frankfurt, Munich, Hong Kong, Vancouver, Amsterdam, and Tel Aviv, now classified as overvalued.

This group also includes housing markets such as Miami, Geneva, Los Angeles, London, Stockholm, Paris, and Sydney.

Apart from Singapore, other property markets deemed “fairly valued” by UBS include New York, Boston, San Francisco, Madrid, Milan, Sao Paulo, Warsaw, and Dubai.

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