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Return of ex-PM Thaksin looms over Thai premiership vote

Thailand’s ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s return from exile coincides with a critical vote for the new prime minister, causing political tension amid a divided nation.

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BANGKOK, THAILAND — Thailand’s divisive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra is expected to return to the kingdom from exile on Tuesday, threatening fresh instability on the day parliament votes for a new prime minister after three months of political deadlock.

Thaksin, 74, is the most influential and controversial politician in recent Thai history, loathed by the pro-military and royalist elites but adored by many in rural areas whose lives were changed by his policies in the early 2000s.

His return from 15 years of self-imposed exile — which his daughter announced would be at 9:00 am (0200 GMT) on Tuesday — comes at a politically charged moment in the kingdom.

Thailand has been without a prime minister for three months after the youthful Move Forward Party (MFP) stormed to a shock success in May elections, only to be stymied by the conservative establishment opposed to its promise of change.

The Pheu Thai party, the election runners-up headed by Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, then broke with MFP to create a new coalition with army-backed candidates despite a campaign pledge never to do so.

On Saturday, days after announcing a deal with the ex-party of outgoing Prime Minster Prayut Chan-o-cha — who came to power in a coup in 2014 — Paetongtarn said her father would return home just hours before parliament votes for a premier.

Thaksin, who confirmed his daughter’s announcement, went into self-exile in 2008 over decades-old criminal charges he claims are politically motivated — and still faces the possibility of jail time.

“He will have to gain some security from his people being the government,” political analyst Jade Donavanik told AFP.

While hatred of Thaksin runs deep in establishment circles, the unexpected success of MFP and its charismatic young leader Pita Limjaroenrat may have provoked a rethink.

“If they have to choose between these two evils, they will be choosing the lesser of the two,” Jade said.

Outside elite circles, Pheu Thai’s deal with the army-backed United Thai Nation Party has dismayed many supporters and progressives who voted overwhelmingly against military-backed parties in May.

Old versus new

An ex-policeman, Thaksin made billions after founding the telecoms firm Shin Corp and then turned to politics.

A populist movement, then unprecedented, catapulted him to power and he served as prime minister between 2001 and 2006.

Thaksin commands loyalty in many rural areas, where Pheu Thai is seen as inextricably linked with him and his family, and remains a household name.

But in May’s elections, his party did not win the popular vote for the first time since 2001.

“It is a fight of the old and the new,” political activist Thida Thavornseth told AFP.

“Thai people change. They love Thaksin but they love democracy more,” she said before the deal was announced.

It is unclear how long Thaksin might serve in jail, should he return. His associates hope he may be moved to house arrest after a brief incarceration, although there are no guarantees.

“Thaksin controls Pheu Thai party but the other power can control Thaksin,” Thida said.

Many in the pro-democracy “Red Shirt” movement have reacted furiously to Pheu Thai’s deal with army-backed groups. Scores of Red Shirt protesters were killed by the military in 2010 demonstrations under Thaksin’s name.

“Most Red Shirts loved Thaksin, because under him everything was better, but now they have changed: they want to change the country,” Thida said.

Moving forward

Young progressives were emboldened by unprecedented calls in 2020 to amend Thailand’s lese-majeste laws, backing MFP as a result, and the royal issue remains central to the Thaksin question.

“As he returns to his country, Thaksin may require the support of both the military and the monarchy,” Korakot Sangyenpan, a Democracy Restoration Group campaigner, told AFP.

Pheu Thai’s decision to work with once-reviled conservative blocs has made Thaksin far more palatable to establishment figures, he said.

“Thaksin for the new generation is quite an old story, but for the conservatives it’s quite a new hope for them,” he said.

But the question of Thaksin’s return was no more than a distraction, said a member of the protest group Thaluwang, who gave only her nickname Bung.

“People will not focus on the real problem, which is the Thai monarchy, and they will think that Thaksin will help and everything will get better,” she told AFP.

“It would probably be a step back for Thai democracy protests.”

— AFP

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China

Tragic stabbing of Japanese boy in Shenzhen sparks concerns over Sino-Japanese relations

A 10-year-old Japanese boy died after being stabbed in Shenzhen on 18 September, raising fears about strained Sino-Japanese relations. The attacker, a 44-year-old man, was apprehended. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned the act, urging Beijing for swift information. This incident follows previous attacks on Japanese nationals, heightening concerns for their safety in China.

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CHINA: A 10-year-old boy, a dual citizen of Japan and China, succumbed to injuries after being stabbed while on his way to school in Shenzhen on Wednesday (18 September) morning.

The incident has raised alarms within the Japanese community in China and could further strain already tense Sino-Japanese relations.

According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the boy was attacked in the abdomen near a Japanese school and was transported to a hospital for emergency treatment.

Despite efforts to save him, he died of his wounds early Thursday.

The assailant, a 44-year-old man, was arrested by police near the scene.

The motivations behind the attack remain unclear, and it is uncertain whether the boy was specifically targeted due to his nationality.

A local Japanese businessman expressed concerns for the safety of the community, advising vigilance and caution when speaking Japanese in public spaces.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned the stabbing as an “extremely despicable crime” and called for prompt information sharing from Beijing regarding the investigation.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry, represented by spokesman Lin Jian, expressed condolences and emphasized the commitment to protecting foreign nationals in China.

Lin noted that such incidents could occur in any country and downplayed the potential impact on bilateral exchanges.

Eyewitness accounts described the chaotic scene, with the boy receiving immediate medical attention from passersby.

His mother was present during the attack.

This incident follows a similar knife attack in Suzhou in June, which left a Japanese mother and child injured.

In response to both attacks, Japanese officials have reiterated their demand for enhanced safety measures for their nationals in China.

Wednesday also marked the 93rd anniversary of a significant historical event—Japan’s bombing of a railroad track near Shenyang, which contributed to the Manchurian Incident and subsequent occupation of northeastern China during World War II.

In light of this, Japan had previously requested the Chinese government to bolster security at Japanese schools.

In mourning, Japan’s Ambassador to China, Kenji Kanasugi, ordered the national flag at the embassy to be flown at half-staff and planned to visit Shenzhen to meet the victim’s family.

The Japanese consulate in Guangzhou reported that local government officials had also extended their condolences.

Community responses in Shenzhen reflected a mix of shock and sorrow, with residents leaving flowers at the entrance of the Japanese school.

One local expressed shame over the incident as a Chinese national, while another voiced concern over the implications for Sino-Japanese relations.

As diplomatic tensions have already been heightened by issues such as espionage allegations against Japanese nationals and trade disputes, including a ban on Japanese seafood following the Fukushima disaster, this tragic event may exacerbate existing challenges.

The Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry in China has urged both governments to ensure the safety of Japanese citizens and seek clarity on the incident.

The investigation into the stabbing continues, with officials pledging to hold the perpetrator accountable under Chinese law.

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Redditors question support for PAP over perceived arrogance and authoritarian attitude

Despite Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s warning that slimmer electoral margins would limit the government’s political space “to do the right things”, many Redditors questioned their support for the ruling PAP, criticising its perceived arrogance. They argued that SM Lee’s remarks show the party has ‘lost its ways’ and acts as if it alone can determine what is right. Others noted that the PAP’s supermajority allows for the passage of unfavourable policies without adequate scrutiny.

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In a recent speech, Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned that “if electoral margins get slimmer, the government will have less political space to do the right things.”

Mr Lee, who served as Prime Minister for 20 years, highlighted the risks associated with increasingly competitive politics.

“It will become harder to disregard short-term considerations in decision-making. The political dynamics will become very different,” he stated during his speech at the Annual Public Service Leadership Ceremony 2024 on 17 September.

“Singaporeans must understand the dangers this creates, and so must the public service,” SM Lee stressed.

SM Lee pointed out that Singapore faces formidable internal and external challenges in the years ahead, with rising expectations and demands from citizens.

As growth becomes harder to achieve and politics becomes more fiercely contested, he warned, “Things can go wrong for Singapore too.”

He urged vigilance in preparing for an uncertain future, noting, “As the world changes, and as the generations change, we must do our best to renew our system – to ensure that it continues to work well for us, even as things change.”

Critique of PAP’s Arrogance and Disconnect from Singaporeans

The People’s Action Party (PAP) experienced a notable decline in its vote share during the 2020 General Election, securing 61.24% of the votes and winning 83 out of 93 seats, a drop from 69.9% in 2015.

A significant loss was in Sengkang GRC, where the PAP team, led by former Minister Ng Chee Meng, was defeated by the Workers’ Party (WP).

In discussions on Reddit, some users questioned why they should support the ruling PAP, criticising the party’s perceived arrogance.

They pointed out that SM Lee’s recent remarks illustrate that the party has strayed from effectively serving Singaporeans and seems to believe it has the sole authority to decide what is right.

Others highlighted that the PAP’s super-majority in Parliament enables the passage of unfavourable policies without sufficient scrutiny.

One comment acknowledged that while many older Singaporeans remain loyal to the PAP due to its past achievements, younger generations feel the party has failed to deliver similar results.

There is significant frustration that essentials like housing and the cost of living have become less affordable compared to previous generations.

The comment emphasised the importance of the 2011 election results, which they believe compelled the PAP to reassess its policies, especially concerning foreign labor and job security.

He suggested that to retain voter support, the PAP must continue to ensure a good material standard of living.

“Then, I ask you, vote PAP for what? They deserve to lose a supermajority. Or else why would they continue to deliver the same promises they delivered to our parents? What else would get a bunch of clueless bureaucrats to recognise their problems?”

Emphasising Government Accountability to the Public

Another Redditor argued that it is the government’s responsibility to be accountable to the people.

He further challenged SM Lee’s assertion about having less political space to do the right things, questioning his authority to define what is “right” for Singapore.

The comment criticised initiatives like the Founder’s Memorial and the NS Square, suggesting they may serve to boost the egos of a few rather than benefit the broader population. The Redditor also questioned the justification for GST hikes amid rising living costs.

“Policies should always be enacted to the benefit of the people, and it should always be the people who decide what is the best course of action for our country. No one should decide that other than us.”

The comment called for an end to narratives that present the PAP as the only party capable of rescuing Singapore from crises, stating that the country has moved past the existential challenges of its founding era and that innovative ideas can come from beyond a single political party.

Another comment echoed this sentiment, noting that by stating this, SM Lee seemingly expects Singaporeans to accept the PAP’s assumption that they—and by extension, the government and public service—will generally do the “right things.”

“What is conveniently overlooked is that the point of having elections is to have us examine for ourselves if we accept that very premise, and vote accordingly.”

A comment further argued that simply losing a supermajority does not equate to a lack of political space for the government to make the right decisions.

The Redditor express frustration with SM Lee’s rhetoric, suggesting that he is manipulating public perception to justify arbitrary changes to the constitution.

Concerns Over PAP’s Supermajority in Parliament

Another comment pointed out that the PAP’s supermajority in Parliament enables the passage of questionable and controversial policies, bypassing robust debate and discussion.

The comment highlighted the contentious constitutional amendments made in late 2016, which reserved the elected presidency for candidates from a specific racial group if no president from that group had served in the previous five terms.

A comment highlighted the contrast: in the past, the PAP enjoyed a wide electoral margin because citizens believed they governed effectively. Now, the PAP claims that without a substantial electoral margin, they cannot govern well.

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