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Study quantifies link between greenhouse gases, polar bear survival

A new study in Science connects greenhouse gas emissions to polar bear habitat loss and declining cub survival. Researchers seek to close a legal loophole in US law and provide tools for evaluating future fossil fuel projects and past emissions.

This research has broader implications for conservation efforts across various species and ecosystems.

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WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES — Polar bears have long symbolized the dangers posed by climate change, as rising temperatures melt away the Arctic sea ice they depend upon for survival.

But quantifying the impact of a single oil well or coal power plant on the tundra predators had eluded scientists, until now.

A new report published in the journal Science on Thursday shows it is possible to calculate how much new greenhouse gas emissions will increase the number of ice-free days in the bears’ habitats, and how that in turn will affect the percentage of cubs that reach adulthood.

By achieving this level of granularity, the paper’s two authors hope to close a loophole in US law.

Although the apex carnivores have had endangered species protections since 2008, a long-standing legal opinion prevents climate considerations from affecting decisions on whether to grant permits to new fossil fuel projects.

“We have presented the information necessary to rescind the Bernhardt Memo,” first co-author Steven Amstrup, a zoologist with Polar Bears International and the University of Wyoming, told AFP, referring to the legal caveat which was named after an attorney in former president George W. Bush’s administration.

The memo stated it was beyond the scope of existing science to distinguish the impacts of a specific source of carbon emissions from the impacts of all greenhouse gasses since the beginning of the industrial age.

Cub survival imperiled

Polar bears rely heavily on the sea ice environment for hunting seals, traveling, mating and more.

When sea ice melts in summer, they retreat onto land or unproductive ice far from the shore, where they endure long stretches of fasting. These periods are growing longer as global temperatures rise.

A landmark paper published in Nature in 2020 was the first to calculate links between changes in the sea ice caused by climate and polar bear demographics.

Building on this work, Amstrup and Bitz established the mathematical relationships between greenhouse emissions and fasting days as well as cub survival, in 15 out of 19 of the polar bears’ subpopulations, between 1979 and 2020.

For example, the world currently emits 50 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide or equivalent gases into the atmosphere annually, and that is reducing the rate of cub survival by over three percentage points per year in the South Beaufort Sea subpopulation.

In healthy populations, cub survival during the first year of life is around 65 percent.

“You don’t have to knock that down very far before you don’t have enough cubs entering the next generation,” said Amstrup.

In addition, the paper provides US policy makers with the tools they need to quantify the impact of new fossil fuel projects slated to occur on public lands in the coming decades.

It can also be applied retrospectively to understand the emissions from specific projects, companies or even countries in the past, to inform global negotiations about climate and biodiversity.

Implications for other species

While the pair are confident in their calculations, they say their work can be further refined by more ground research, for example better estimates of the mass of polar bears at the time they enter their fasting period.

Joel Berger, university chair of wildlife conservation at Colorado State University, praised the paper.

“Amstrup and Bitz render an incontrovertible quantitative link among greenhouse gas emissions, sea ice decline, fasting duration — a physiological response to lost hunting opportunities for seals — and subsequent polar bear demographics,” said Berger, who was not involved in the research.

Beyond providing a potential policy solution to the legal loophole, the new research could have implications that reach far beyond polar bears, second co-author Cecilia Bitz, a climatologist at the University of Washington, told AFP.

Methods laid out in the paper can be adapted for other species and habitats, such as coral reefs, or Florida’s Key deer.

“I really hope this stimulates a lot of research,” Bitz said, adding she was already reaching out to new collaborators.

— AFP

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Environment

Japanese scientists find microplastics are present in clouds

In Japan, researchers confirm microplastics in clouds, impacting climate. Airborne microplastics, 7.1 to 94.6 micrometers in size, found in cloud water, potentially affecting rapid cloud formation and climate systems.

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WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES — Researchers in Japan have confirmed microplastics are present in clouds, where they are likely affecting the climate in ways that aren’t yet fully understood.

In a study published in Environmental Chemistry Letters, scientists climbed Mount Fuji and Mount Oyama in order to collect water from the mists that shroud their peaks, then applied advanced imaging techniques to the samples to determine their physical and chemical properties.

The team identified nine different types of polymers and one type of rubber in the airborne microplastics — ranging in size from 7.1 to 94.6 micrometers.

Each liter of cloud water contained between 6.7 to 13.9 pieces of the plastics.

What’s more, “hydrophilic” or water-loving polymers were abundant, suggesting the particles play a significant role in rapid cloud formation and thus climate systems.

“If the issue of ‘plastic air pollution’ is not addressed proactively, climate change and ecological risks may become a reality, causing irreversible and serious environmental damage in the future,” lead author Hiroshi Okochi of Waseda University warned in a statement Wednesday.

When microplastics reach the upper atmosphere and are exposed to ultraviolet radiation from sunlight, they degrade, contributing to greenhouse gasses, added Okochi.

Microplastics — defined as plastic particles under 5 millimeters — come from industrial effluent, textiles, synthetic car tires, personal care products and much more.

These tiny fragments have been discovered inside fish in the deepest recesses of the ocean peppering Arctic sea ice and blanketing the snows on the Pyrenees mountains between France and Spain.

But the mechanisms of their transport have remained unclear, with research on airborne microplastic transport in particular limited.

“To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on airborne microplastics in cloud water,” the authors wrote in their paper.

Emerging evidence has linked microplastics to a range of impacts on heart and lung health, as well as cancers, in addition to widespread environmental harm.

— AFP

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SG Climate Rally draws over 1,400 attendees at Hong Lim Park with focus on inclusiveness and pervasive nature of climate change

The SG Climate Rally, held at Hong Lim Park on Sep 23, brought together over 1,400 people to raise awareness about climate change’s impact on marginalized communities, showcasing diverse speakers and activities, promoting inclusivity and engagement.

Local political figures and bipartisan support highlighted the importance of climate action.

Despite its success, a survey revealed that Singaporeans lag behind in climate advocacy. Organizers aim to make climate awareness more mainstream and inclusive.

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SINGAPORE – The SG Climate Rally, held at Hong Lim Park on Saturday (23 Sep), brought together an impressive gathering of over 1,400 people to raise awareness about climate change and its impact on marginalized communities.

This year’s rally was marked by a central theme of inclusiveness, highlighting the disproportionate burden borne by lower-income residents in the face of climate change.

This youth-led movement invited several speakers to emphasize the importance of giving voice to these marginalized individuals when crafting climate-related policies.

One of the remarkable moments of the event was the heartfelt speech by Ms Marlina Yased, a mother of five residing in a two-room rental flat for 13 years.

Her impassioned words resonated with the audience, underlining the idea that individual voices can be powerful tools for delivering a meaningful message.

Ms Marlina stated, “As the climate crisis worsens, we must not give up.

“We must understand that we, the people also have the power to make change.”

Rally speakers reinforcing rally’s theme of inclusivity

The event featured a diverse lineup of speakers, including former Nominated Member of Parliament Geh Min, sustainability strategist Madhu Ardhanari, co-founder of LepakInSG Ho Xiang Tian, and Nor Syazwan Abdul Majid, who founded Wan’s Ubin Journal.

These speakers reinforced the rally’s theme of inclusivity and the unequal distribution of climate impacts.

Ho Xiang Tian, Co-founder of LepakinSG, expressed his concerns over Singapore’s carbon tax policies.

In 2017, the Ministry of Environment and Water Resources proposed a carbon tax of S$10 a tonne. However, after industry consultations, this figure was unexpectedly halved to S$5 a tonne.

While seemingly small, this reduction translates to a staggering shortfall of S$200 million annually in tax revenue. Cumulatively, the deficit amounts to S$1 billion over four years. As the need to gather funds for coastal defense looms, taxpayers are shouldering the burden, while industries gain from reduced carbon tax rates.

Ho Xiang Tian also shed light on the minimal tax contributions of major petrochemical corporations in Singapore.

Despite a 17% headline corporate tax rate, companies like Shell and British Petroleum paid effective tax rates of just 2% and 6%, respectively, in 2019. He noted that the exact figures for ExxonMobil remain undisclosed.

Generous tax incentives from the EDB and MTI are primarily responsible for this trend, said Ho, emphasizing that these corporations must pay their fair share, highlighting the urgency of environmental responsibility.

For Ms Marlina, the tangible effects of climate change are evident in her daily life, where the rising heat in her apartment has made air conditioning, even portable units, an unaffordable luxury for her family.

She added that the heat not only increases her work-related stress but also brings about financial burdens due to rising water usage, heightened risks of skin ailments, and more frequent medical appointments.

Mr Syazwan, who runs the social platform Wan’s Ubin Journal, highlighted the importance of incorporating indigenous voices and history into climate policy and education.

He emphasized the sustainable practices of the Orang Pulau and their understanding of the symbiotic relationship between humans and nature.

“The Orang Pulau were champions of sustainability. They understood what nature provided for them and the symbiotic relationship between humans and nature,” he explained.

Meanwhile, Kristian-Marc James Paul, the rally organizer, stressed that climate justice is inherently linked to broader societal issues.

Event activities promoting inclusivity and engagement 

Besides speeches, various environmental and civil society groups had also set up booths at the event to raise awareness about their causes and provided opportunities for participants to engage with their local representatives through postcards.

Specifically, environmental organizations like Students for a Fossil-Free Future and People’s Movement to Stop Haze (PM.Haze), along with civil society groups such as Migrant Mutual Aid and Workers Make Possible, had set up their individual community booths.

In addition to distributing postcards to MPs, their Facebook post mentioned a variety of other activities like Climate Games, Placard Art Jam, Learning Corner, Earth Emotions, Climate A(r)ction, and something referred to as Nature Nook: Kids’ Play Station.

These activities are clearly designed to be inclusive and cater to individuals of all ages, aligning with the rally’s central theme of inclusivity.

Political figures in attendance at climate rally

In attendance were political figures, including Members of Parliament.

People’s Action Party MP Wan Rizal, who said that he looked forward to receiving postcards from his Jalan Besar residents as they would “know the environment best.”

Furthermore, he mentioned that he had also written a postcard to his own MP regarding the preservation of green areas in his Pasir Ris community.

MPs from Workers’ Party, including He Ting Ru, Dennis Tan, Louis Chua, Gerald Giam, and Jamus Lim, were also present at the event, demonstrating bipartisan support for climate action.

Additionally, Non-Constituency MP Leong Mun Wai from the Progress Singapore Party and Ravi Philemon, secretary-general of Red Dot United, were also in attendance.

Singaporeans’ limited urgency in addressing climate change

Despite the rally’s success, the Southeast Asia Climate Outlook Survey Report 2023 which was published by the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, revealed that Singaporeans’ engagement with climate advocacy lags behind their regional counterparts.

The survey showed a decline in the percentage of Singaporeans viewing climate change as a serious and immediate threat.

Only 43.7 per cent of Singaporeans polled believe that climate change “is a serious and immediate threat to the well-being of the country,” a significant drop from 66.4 per cent in 2021, but a slight increase from 40.5 per cent in 2022.

It showed that fewer Singaporeans took steps to sign climate change related petitions (17.6 per cent) and attend protests (3.2 per cent) compared to Asean’s average of 18.2 per cent and 4.3 per cent respectively.

Mr Paul explained that discussing climate change isn’t a common practice among Singaporeans.

Therefore, he hope to shift the narrative by making climate awareness a more mainstream and inclusive discussion.

He emphasizes that the rally aims to serve as a platform to initiate conversations about climate change and its unequal impacts on society.

Hoping that climate awareness would become less of a “niche” issue, Ms Ardhanari said that while a small group of Singaporeans may have a “high level of awareness”, the broader awareness in Singapore has not yet aligned with the magnitude and nature of climate change’s impact.

She added that Singaporeans could no longer afford to remain in “echo chambers” around climate change.

“This is something that affects all of us, but it seems like the people who want to talk about is a very small group of people, and are often disconnected with people who are facing the most of who are most vulnerable to impact.”

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