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Xi’s G20 no-show hints at China’s shifting diplomatic priorities

President Xi Jinping’s unexplained absence from the G20 summit highlights strained global relations and increased secrecy in China’s leadership. Potential factors include tensions with India and Xi’s focus on bolstering ties with emerging economies like BRICS.

There are also speculations about Xi’s health and a desire to avoid difficult questions regarding issues such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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BEIJING, CHINA — President Xi Jinping’s unexplained decision to snub the G20 summit underlines Beijing’s frayed ties with other major powers as well as growing secrecy at the top of the ruling Communist Party, China analysts told AFP.

Beijing’s foreign ministry said Monday that Premier Li Qiang would join the leaders of the world’s biggest economies in New Delhi this weekend, effectively confirming Xi’s absence.

No reason was given why Xi will not attend the summit, which he has not skipped since coming to power, except Rome in 2021 when he participated by video link owing to Covid pandemic restrictions.

His probable absence draws a sharp contrast with his appearance at the BRICS summit of emerging economies in South Africa last month.

There, Xi was front and centre as the bloc agreed to admit six new members in what he called a “historic” achievement.

The emphasis on ties with the developing world reflects Beijing’s efforts to “create an alternative… to the liberal international order dominated by the US since the end of World War Two”, said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London.

The realignment “is China-friendly if not Sino-centric, with support being gathered and consolidated in the Global South”, Tsang told AFP.

“The G20… is not (something) that China can dominate, so it is given lower priority. I am not saying that Xi is anti-G20, just (that he does) not put it on par in importance to BRICS.”

This year’s apparent G20 no-show also dampens hopes of renewed engagement with Western powers following Xi’s magnanimous — though carefully choreographed — centre-stage appearance at the last edition in November in Bali.

India tensions

Experts said long-running tensions with hosts India may have driven the decision.

“Xi skipping the G20 came as a disappointment, but not really a surprise,” said Yun Sun, China programme director at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank.

“China-India relations have not been smooth since 2020, and China has been complaining that India is using the G20 to consolidate its claim of disputed territory,” she said.

Beijing and New Delhi have a decades-long border dispute and deadly brawls have erupted along the vast Himalayan boundary in recent years.

China also bristles at India’s membership of the so-called Quad, a security partnership with Australia, Japan and the United States that Beijing views as an effort to contain its influence in Asia.

Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Beijing’s Renmin University of China, said India had also recently displayed “stronger opposition to China’s claims over the South China Sea… and escalated a ban or strict restrictions on China’s tech exports and direct investments”.

“These (issues) have existed for years and will last long into the future, whether situational… events happen at this or that moment,” he said.

There were expectations that Xi may use the G20 to meet President Joe Biden, with his American counterpart saying last week he would be “disappointed” if the Chinese leader did not show up.

Beijing and Washington have clashed in recent years over a range of issues, from trade to technology and human rights.

However, the “increasingly clear” prospect of a November meeting at the APEC summit in San Francisco may have made Xi’s G20 attendance “less imperative”, Sun said.

Don’t ask why

A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry deflected questions at a media briefing this week about Xi’s absence.

Asked directly why Xi was not attending, spokeswoman Mao Ning said: “I made an announcement about this just now.”

She then repeated a statement detailing Premier Li Qiang’s planned visit to India, which made no mention of Xi himself.

China’s Communist Party rarely discloses information about top leaders but its reflexive secrecy has made repeated headlines in recent months.

Former foreign minister Qin Gang was abruptly removed from his post in July and has not been seen in public since.

And Xi failed to appear for a scheduled speech at the BRICS summit, sending his commerce minister to read it on his behalf.

Tsang, of SOAS, said there was a “reasonable chance” that Xi, who turned 70 this year, may be suffering from health problems.

“Xi is taking China further in the totalitarian direction, so greater control and greater secrecy are part of the process,” Tsang said.

One diplomat from a G20 nation also told AFP Xi may want to avoid hard questions about refusing to condemn Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

“The emperor does not like to be asked uncomfortable questions,” he said.

— AFP

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China’s Evergrande Group halts trading in Hong Kong

China Evergrande suspends stock trading in Hong Kong as financial woes escalate. Its debt crisis and missed bond payments add to China’s property sector turmoil and raise global concerns.

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HONG KONG, CHINA — Beleaguered property giant China Evergrande suspended trading of its shares on the Hong Kong stock exchange on Thursday, according to notices posted by the bourse, as the debt-ridden company grapples with severe financial difficulties.

Trading in its two other units — the firm’s property services and electric vehicle groups — also stopped at 9:00 am local time (0100 GMT), according to the notices.

The three entities had a combined market value of 16.7 billion HK dollars (US$2.1 billion) on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported.

Evergrande only just resumed trading a month ago, after the company was suspended for 17 months for not publishing its financial results.

The halt in trading comes a day after a Bloomberg report that Evergrande’s billionaire boss Xu Jiayin was being held by police under “residential surveillance”.

On Sunday, the firm said it was unable to issue new debt as its subsidiary, Hengda Real Estate Group, was being investigated.

And last Friday it said meetings planned this week on a key debt restructuring plan would not take place.

The firm said it was “necessary to reassess the terms” of the plan in order to suit the “objective situation and the demand of the creditors”.

Evergrande’s enormous debt  — the firm estimated it at US$328 billion at the end of June — has contributed to the country’s deepening property sector crisis, raising fears of a global spillover.

The company’s property arm this week missed a key bond payment, and Chinese financial website Caixin reported that former executives at the firm had been detained.

That crisis has deepened a broader slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, with youth unemployment at record highs.

The government has set an economic growth target of around five percent for this year, which would represent one of its worst performances in decades, excluding the period of the pandemic.

Massive debt

China’s property sector has long been a key pillar of growth — along with construction it accounts for about a quarter of GDP — and it experienced a dazzling boom in recent decades.

The massive debt accrued by the industry’s biggest players has, however, been seen by Beijing in recent years as an unacceptable risk for the financial system and overall economic health.

Authorities have gradually tightened developers’ access to credit since 2020, and a wave of defaults has followed — notably that of Evergrande.

The now long-running housing crisis has wreaked misery on the lives of homebuyers across the country, who have often staked life savings on properties that never materialised.

A wave of mortgage boycotts spread nationwide last summer, as cash-strapped developers struggled to raise enough to complete homes they had already sold in advance — a common practice in China.

Earlier this month, authorities in the southern city of Shenzhen said they had arrested several Evergrande employees, also calling on the public to report any cases of suspected fraud.

Another Chinese property giant, Country Garden, narrowly avoided default in recent months, after reporting a record loss and debts of more than US$150 billion.

— AFP

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Taiwan to unveil first domestically built submarine

Taiwan unveils its first homegrown submarine, aiming to bolster defenses against China amidst increasing military and political pressure. China claims Taiwan as its territory, intensifying tensions.

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TAIPEI, TAIWAN — Taiwan will unveil its first domestically built submarine on Thursday, with the massively outgunned island seeking to bolster its defences against China.

China claims self-ruled Taiwan as its territory, and has in the past year stepped up military and political pressure, ramping up the number of warplane incursions around the island while diplomatically isolating it.

Taiwan has increased defence spending — allotting a record US$19 billion for 2024 — to acquire military equipment, particularly from its key ally the United States, but its quest to obtain a submarine has faced obstacles.

President Tsai Ing-wen — strongly opposed by Beijing for her refusal to accept China’s authority over the island — launched a submarine programme in 2016 with the aim of delivering a fleet of eight vessels.

Construction on the first started in 2020 by the island’s CSBC Corporation, a company specialising in container ships and military vessels, and it will be unveiled by Tsai in the southern port city of Kaohsiung.

Carrying a price tag of US$1.5 billion, the submarine’s displacement weight is about 2,500 to 3,000 tons, with its combat systems and torpedoes sourced from the US defence company Lockheed Martin.

“The submarine will have a fairly significant impact on Taiwan’s defence strategy,” said Ben Lewis, a US-based independent analyst who focuses on the Chinese military’s movements around the island.

“The biggest risk is to the PLA’s (People’s Liberation Army’s) amphibious assault and troop transport capabilities,” he told AFP, referring to China’s military.

“They have practised extensively the use of civilian vessels to augment their existing troop delivery platforms, and a submarine could wreak havoc on vessels not designed for naval warfare.”

The submarine will still need at least three years to become operational, said Zivon Wang, a military analyst at Taipei-based think tank the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies.

“The launch… does not mean that Taiwan will become very powerful right away but it is a crucial element of Taiwan’s defence strategy and a part of our efforts to build deterrence capabilities.”

China’s state-run Global Times on Monday published an op-ed saying Taiwan’s submarine deployment plan to block the PLA was “daydreaming”.

“The plan is just an illusion of the island attempting to resist reunification by force,” it said.

Last week, China flew 103 warplanes around Taiwan, which the island’s defence ministry said was among the highest in recently recorded incursions, decrying the “destructive unilateral actions”.

Beijing has also sent reconnaissance drones to the eastern side of Taiwan — a move that analysts have said could spell trouble for the island’s military bases there.

— AFP

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