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Rupiah’s political rollercoaster: A week of surprises and shifting alliances

The Indonesian rupiah’s week was marked by political shifts as parties realigned, impacting the currency’s performance and sparking political feuds.

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INDONESIA: The Indonesian rupiah’s performance against the US dollar this week appears to be heavily influenced by political sentiments, even as external pressures begin to ease.

The currency ended the previous week, concluding on Friday (1 Sept), with a slight 0.07% depreciation to Rp 15,235/US$.

However, when viewed in the broader context, the rupiah still managed to strengthen by 0.36% over the course of the week, marking an end to six consecutive weeks of negative performance.

Throughout the past week, the rupiah only weakened once, on Friday (1 Sep), while showing strong gains on other days.

The unfolding political developments have captured the attention of both investors and the public since last week, potentially impacting the rupiah’s trajectory.

The domestic political landscape heated up unexpectedly after the National Awakening Party (PKB) shifted its support to Anies Baswedan’s camp.

PKB Chairman Muhaimin Iskandar, known as Cak Imin, was even endorsed as the prospective vice-presidential candidate alongside Anies.

Notably, PKB had previously been a part of the Indonesia Maju (Advancing Indonesia) coalition supporting presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto. In several surveys, Cak Imin had been more frequently paired with Prabowo.

PKB’s alignment with Anies and Cak Imin has reshaped the coalition map, causing Prabowo’s camp to lose PKB’s support.

Prabowo Subianto will now run as the presidential candidate with the backing of the Gerinda Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN), Golkar Party, and the Gelora Party.

Anies-Baswedan’s camp has lost the support of the Democratic Party, which expressed disappointment over Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) not being chosen as Anies’s running mate.

So far, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) continues to support Anies, though the final decision will be determined through the Majelis Syura meeting. Anies will also be supported by the National Democrat Party (NasDem).

The Ganjar camp still maintains the support of the United Development Party (PPP), the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-Perjuangan), Perindo, and Hanura.

Apart from the shifting coalition dynamics, the nomination of Cak Imin and Anies has ignited a political feud, with politicians trading barbs.

Prabowo mentioned a growing sense of betrayal in recent times, while the founder of the Democratic Party and former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) hinted at infidelity and betrayal by referring to hidden agendas.

Assessing the data from both external and domestic sources, there are no strong economic indicators anticipated by market participants for this week.

However, all eyes are on the upcoming ASEAN High-Level Conference, which is expected to command the attention of the Indonesian populace.

On another note, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that the year-on-year inflation rate in August 2023 reached 3.27%, higher than the 3.08% inflation rate in July 2023.

Jahja Setiaatmadja, President Director of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BCA).

Jahja Setiaatmadja, President Director of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BCA), also weighed in on the political scenario, suggesting that the political year presents a unique opportunity for investors.

Speaking at the BCA Wealth Summit 2023, Jahja acknowledged the lingering challenges posed by the post-pandemic global situation.

However, he emphasized Indonesia’s robust economic fundamentals, driven by consumption and business activity recovery, including in the banking sector.

“The political year is an opportunity, as historically, real sector income increases due to the abundance of circulating money. This, of course, provides comfort for investment,” Jahja stated on Monday (4 Sept).

Recognizing these opportunities, the BCA Wealth Summit 2023 provided references and recommendations for continuous asset and wealth management.

Various global sentiments, such as the expected peak in US interest rates but remaining at high levels, were also discussed during the event.

The BCA Wealth Summit 2023 saw the presence of seasoned investor Lo Kheng Hong, who shared insights on the initial stages of investing, from the importance of understanding and analyzing companies to reading market situations and sentiments, as well as the necessary mental fortitude required for investors.

Photo: Liputan6

BCA reported a high level of interest from the public, with attendance at the BCA Wealth Summit reaching 2,300 visitors, a 70% increase compared to the previous year’s event.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, Indonesia’s economic outlook remains a focal point of discussion and analysis for investors and market participants alike.

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Economy

IRAS reports S$80.3 billion in tax revenue for FY2023/24, a 17% increase from the previous year

The Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS) collected S$80.3 billion in tax revenue for FY2023/24, a 17% increase from the previous year. The rise reflects strong corporate earnings, higher wages, and increased consumer spending, contributing to essential services and economic development.

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The Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS) reported a total tax revenue collection of S$80.3 billion for the Financial Year (FY) 2023/24, marking a 17% increase from FY2022/23.

The rise is attributed to the country’s strong economic growth and nominal wage increases in 2022.

This revenue constitutes approximately 77.6% of the Singapore Government’s Operating Revenue and 11.9% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The taxes collected will be used to fund essential services, support social development programmes, grow the economy, and enhance Singapore’s living environment.

In addition to tax collection, IRAS processed close to S$2.3 billion in enterprise grants, benefiting over 131,000 businesses and workers. The arrears rate for Income Tax, Goods and Services Tax (GST), and Property Tax remained low at 0.64%.

Breakdown of Tax Revenue

Corporate Income Tax (CIT) showed the largest increase, rising by 25.6% from S$23.1 billion in FY2022 to S$29.0 billion in FY2023, due to strong corporate earnings. CIT accounted for 36.1% of total revenue collection.

Individual Income Tax (IIT) accounted for 21.8% of the total, with revenue increasing by S$2 billion to S$17.5 billion, driven by higher wages and an increase in the number of taxpayers.

GST contributed 20.7% of the total revenue, with collections rising by S$2.6 billion to S$16.6 billion, a result of higher consumer spending and the increase in the GST rate.

Property Tax contributed 7.4% (S$5.9 billion), and Stamp Duty accounted for 7.2% (S$5.8 billion), though Stamp Duty saw a decline of S$0.1 billion due to lower property transaction volumes.

S$2.3 Billion in Enterprise Grants Processed

IRAS also disbursed S$2.3 billion in grants to support businesses and workers under several schemes, including the Progressive Wage Credit Scheme (PWCS), Senior Employment Credit (SEC), and Jobs Growth Incentive (JGI). These grants were designed to assist businesses in maintaining operations and supporting workers’ employment.

Digital Solutions for Businesses

IRAS continues to enhance digital solutions to facilitate tax compliance for businesses.

Initiatives include:

  • InvoiceNow: This e-invoicing system, set to become mandatory for GST-registered businesses starting in November 2025 for new GST registrants, allows for seamless transmission of invoice data to IRAS for tax administration.
  • One-Stop Payroll (OSP): Developed in collaboration with the Central Provident Fund Board, Ministry of Manpower, and GovTech, this system allows businesses to submit wage-related information to various agencies through a single platform. These initiatives build on IRAS’ existing digital services, such as the Submission of Employment Income API.

To date, over 120 software providers have partnered with IRAS, offering 46 software products designed to simplify tax filing and payments for businesses.

In FY2023/24, it audited and investigated 9,590 cases, recovering approximately S$857 million in taxes and penalties from non-compliant taxpayers.

IRAS aims to ensure timely tax filing and payment while addressing tax avoidance and evasion.

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Economy

Singapore faces 25% increase in bankruptcy filings during first half of 2024

Bankruptcy cases in Singapore surged in the first half of 2024, with 2,334 filings—a 25% increase from 2023. The number of undischarged bankrupts reached 9,903, reflecting ongoing financial challenges and highlighting a rise in bankruptcy orders and applications.

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Singapore faces 25% increase in bankruptcy filings during first half of 2024
(photo for illustration purposes only/Unsplash)

SINGAPORE: Bankruptcy cases in Singapore surged in the first half of 2024, with 2,334 individuals filing for bankruptcy—a 25% increase compared to the same period in 2023, according to data from the Ministry of Law (MinLaw).

The rise in filings highlights the ongoing financial challenges faced by many in the country.

The total number of undischarged bankrupts reached 9,903 as of 30 June, marking a 2.4% increase since January.

Additionally, 594 individuals were declared bankrupt between January and June 2024, an 11% rise from the previous year.

May recorded the highest number of bankruptcy applications, with 430 cases, followed by January with 409.

In comparison, May 2023 saw 314 applications, while the highest figure for the first half of 2023 was 356 in March.

Bankruptcy orders also increased, with 595 orders issued in the first half of 2024, compared to 537 during the same period in 2023.

Under Singapore law, individuals with at least S$15,000 (US$11,480) in unpaid debts can file for bankruptcy in the High Court.

The process requires a deposit of S$1,850 (US$1,415) to the Official Assignee for the administration of the bankrupt’s estate.

However, this deposit is non-refundable for those filing for their own bankruptcy. Creditors may recover the deposit if sufficient funds are available in the bankrupt’s estate.

Some cases may qualify for the Debt Repayment Scheme (DRS), an alternative to bankruptcy designed to help debtors repay their debts without filing for insolvency.

The DRS is accessible only through creditors and is available to employed individuals with debts of up to S$150,000 (US$114,807).

Those who qualify must repay their debts in monthly installments over up to five years.

Credit Counselling Singapore (CCS) general manager Tan Huey Min noted that borrowers under the DRS typically repay less than the full amount owed, but once they fulfill their obligations, they can start afresh.

MinLaw cautioned, however, that there is no guarantee of significant debt reduction, and any reduction above 70% would be considered substantial.

Despite the lighter debt burden under the DRS, some individuals still fail to complete their repayment plans.

In such cases, creditors can pursue the remaining debt, which may include filing another bankruptcy application.

Additionally, not all debtors qualify for the DRS, and those deemed unsuitable are declared bankrupt.

Recent reforms in Singapore’s bankruptcy system aim to rehabilitate debtors with clearer discharge timelines

In an interview with Straits Times, Yuen Law associate director Tris Xavier highlighted that prior to 2016, the system lacked clear timelines for discharge from bankruptcy, with some individuals remaining in this state for decades.

The reforms now offer clearer milestones for debtors based on their personal circumstances, making the system more debtor-centric.

First-time bankrupts can be discharged within three to seven years if they meet their target contributions, which typically require 52 monthly payments.

Repeat bankrupts can be discharged within five to nine years, contingent on 76 monthly payments.

Those who fully meet their target contributions will have their names removed from public records five years after discharge, while those who do not will remain on public records permanently.

Xavier emphasized that bankruptcy should not be seen as a way to reduce debt but rather as a financial rehabilitation tool.

He warned against hiding assets, explaining that bankruptcy laws cover both local and overseas assets, and the court can reverse transactions intended to shield assets from creditors.

While CPF savings are protected from creditors during bankruptcy, CPF funds inherited by a bankrupt after death are not.

Additionally, bankrupts face restrictions, including needing permission to travel overseas and being barred from managing a business or acting as a company director.

For those in financial distress, bankruptcy is not the only option.

Xavier advised debtors to communicate openly with creditors as soon as financial difficulties arise.

Credit Counselling Singapore (CCS) also offers a Debt Management Programme that negotiates more affordable repayment terms with creditors.

Unlike the DRS, the CCS program requires full repayment of debts, but it allows individuals to avoid bankruptcy, keeping their financial situation private.

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