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Why China’s response to economic challenges is not working

China’s economic concerns persist as falling exports and a struggling post-Covid recovery raise fears. Key issues include sluggish demand, a crisis in the property sector, and global demand woes.

Analysts suggest the need for substantial stimulus despite government measures to stabilize the situation.

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BEIJING, CHINA — Data from China on Thursday showing falling exports fanned more fears about a slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy, which has struggled with its post-COVID recovery.

Governments and markets alike are concerned about these indicators — the size of China’s economy and its connections with the rest of the world mean any ups and downs are felt far and wide.

Here is a rundown of the problems facing China’s economy, and why analysts believe Beijing is not doing enough to fix them:

Why is demand slowing?

The abandonment of tight pandemic restrictions in December set off a gradual resumption of consumer activity in China as people started dining out, shopping, and using public transport more frequently.

But the highly anticipated economic rebound was weaker than expected and did not reach all sectors — industrial production, for example, is still struggling.

And a post-Covid rally has since completely run out of steam.

As many other major economies grapple with inflation, consumer prices in China fell by 0.3 percent year-on-year in July to enter deflation –- a sign of sluggish demand.

Youth unemployment rose so high in June that authorities suspended the publication of that data, while traditional growth engines such as exports, real estate and consumption remain stalled.

Analysts say these trends are increasingly pushing China’s annual growth objective of around five percent out of reach.

Why the downturn?

Property development and linked industries have been a key pillar of the Chinese economy in recent years, providing a sizeable chunk of its GDP.

But the sector is in a deep crisis.

Many leading developers including Evergrande and Country Garden have come under increasing financial pressure lately, with their astronomical levels of debt bringing bankruptcy concerns to the fore.

Any implosion of these firms could have dire consequences for China’s financial system, resulting in vast amounts of unfinished housing, mass layoffs, and tens of thousands of people unable to recover their funds.

And the property turmoil is fuelling doubt among potential buyers, adding further pressure to developers’ budgets.

The economy is also feeling the effects of sluggish global demand, which has dragged on Chinese exports, as well as flagging domestic household spending.

What is the government doing?

Anxious to shore up finances, China has opted for prudent and targeted measures instead of a broader but costly recovery plan advocated by many economists.

Authorities unveiled steps in July aimed at stimulating the purchase of home appliances and electric vehicles.

This was followed by tax benefits for households and businesses in a bid to support consumption.

And to further boost activity, China’s central bank has recently cut two reference rates, hoping to encourage commercial banks to grant more credit and on more attractive terms.

But the most important announcements — directed at the country’s flailing real estate industry — were made last week.

Intended to reinvigorate the sector, several major cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou relaxed the criteria to qualify for a mortgage loan.

First-time buyers have also obtained more preferential loan rates.

Is it enough?

Many economists doubt it.

“The economy simply cannot recover until the property market improves,” warns research firm Gavekal Dragonomics.

Households “are presently reluctant to borrow and purchase real estate even though mortgage rates have fallen to a 14-year low,” notes analyst Arthur Budaghyan, who follows the Chinese economy for BCA Research.

A reduction in rates will not fundamentally change the situation, says Budaghyan, “because households now expect house prices to drop materially”.

In recent decades, Chinese consumers have viewed purchasing property as the best way to increase one’s savings.

However, widespread economic uncertainty remains the main obstacle to the recovery of consumption.

Households now favour “savings rather than spending or investment”, notes analyst Maggie Wei of Goldman Sachs.

Major stimulus needed?

Many economists contend that a major stimulus plan is needed to kick China’s economy back into shape.

On the heels of the global financial crisis in the late 2000s, China invested four trillion yuan ($548 billion today) to help boost activity.

This expansive recovery plan enabled considerable development in the country’s infrastructure, driving a building boom of roads, airports, and high-speed rail.

But it also resulted in many underused projects and increased debt.

Beijing now appears wary of that strategy, as local government coffers have been drained by the pandemic.

And China’s President Xi Jinping — who has expressed opposition to Western-style “welfarism” — is reluctant to return to a time of high spending when belts are tightening.

— AFP

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China’s Evergrande Group halts trading in Hong Kong

China Evergrande suspends stock trading in Hong Kong as financial woes escalate. Its debt crisis and missed bond payments add to China’s property sector turmoil and raise global concerns.

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HONG KONG, CHINA — Beleaguered property giant China Evergrande suspended trading of its shares on the Hong Kong stock exchange on Thursday, according to notices posted by the bourse, as the debt-ridden company grapples with severe financial difficulties.

Trading in its two other units — the firm’s property services and electric vehicle groups — also stopped at 9:00 am local time (0100 GMT), according to the notices.

The three entities had a combined market value of 16.7 billion HK dollars (US$2.1 billion) on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported.

Evergrande only just resumed trading a month ago, after the company was suspended for 17 months for not publishing its financial results.

The halt in trading comes a day after a Bloomberg report that Evergrande’s billionaire boss Xu Jiayin was being held by police under “residential surveillance”.

On Sunday, the firm said it was unable to issue new debt as its subsidiary, Hengda Real Estate Group, was being investigated.

And last Friday it said meetings planned this week on a key debt restructuring plan would not take place.

The firm said it was “necessary to reassess the terms” of the plan in order to suit the “objective situation and the demand of the creditors”.

Evergrande’s enormous debt  — the firm estimated it at US$328 billion at the end of June — has contributed to the country’s deepening property sector crisis, raising fears of a global spillover.

The company’s property arm this week missed a key bond payment, and Chinese financial website Caixin reported that former executives at the firm had been detained.

That crisis has deepened a broader slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, with youth unemployment at record highs.

The government has set an economic growth target of around five percent for this year, which would represent one of its worst performances in decades, excluding the period of the pandemic.

Massive debt

China’s property sector has long been a key pillar of growth — along with construction it accounts for about a quarter of GDP — and it experienced a dazzling boom in recent decades.

The massive debt accrued by the industry’s biggest players has, however, been seen by Beijing in recent years as an unacceptable risk for the financial system and overall economic health.

Authorities have gradually tightened developers’ access to credit since 2020, and a wave of defaults has followed — notably that of Evergrande.

The now long-running housing crisis has wreaked misery on the lives of homebuyers across the country, who have often staked life savings on properties that never materialised.

A wave of mortgage boycotts spread nationwide last summer, as cash-strapped developers struggled to raise enough to complete homes they had already sold in advance — a common practice in China.

Earlier this month, authorities in the southern city of Shenzhen said they had arrested several Evergrande employees, also calling on the public to report any cases of suspected fraud.

Another Chinese property giant, Country Garden, narrowly avoided default in recent months, after reporting a record loss and debts of more than US$150 billion.

— AFP

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Taiwan to unveil first domestically built submarine

Taiwan unveils its first homegrown submarine, aiming to bolster defenses against China amidst increasing military and political pressure. China claims Taiwan as its territory, intensifying tensions.

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TAIPEI, TAIWAN — Taiwan will unveil its first domestically built submarine on Thursday, with the massively outgunned island seeking to bolster its defences against China.

China claims self-ruled Taiwan as its territory, and has in the past year stepped up military and political pressure, ramping up the number of warplane incursions around the island while diplomatically isolating it.

Taiwan has increased defence spending — allotting a record US$19 billion for 2024 — to acquire military equipment, particularly from its key ally the United States, but its quest to obtain a submarine has faced obstacles.

President Tsai Ing-wen — strongly opposed by Beijing for her refusal to accept China’s authority over the island — launched a submarine programme in 2016 with the aim of delivering a fleet of eight vessels.

Construction on the first started in 2020 by the island’s CSBC Corporation, a company specialising in container ships and military vessels, and it will be unveiled by Tsai in the southern port city of Kaohsiung.

Carrying a price tag of US$1.5 billion, the submarine’s displacement weight is about 2,500 to 3,000 tons, with its combat systems and torpedoes sourced from the US defence company Lockheed Martin.

“The submarine will have a fairly significant impact on Taiwan’s defence strategy,” said Ben Lewis, a US-based independent analyst who focuses on the Chinese military’s movements around the island.

“The biggest risk is to the PLA’s (People’s Liberation Army’s) amphibious assault and troop transport capabilities,” he told AFP, referring to China’s military.

“They have practised extensively the use of civilian vessels to augment their existing troop delivery platforms, and a submarine could wreak havoc on vessels not designed for naval warfare.”

The submarine will still need at least three years to become operational, said Zivon Wang, a military analyst at Taipei-based think tank the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies.

“The launch… does not mean that Taiwan will become very powerful right away but it is a crucial element of Taiwan’s defence strategy and a part of our efforts to build deterrence capabilities.”

China’s state-run Global Times on Monday published an op-ed saying Taiwan’s submarine deployment plan to block the PLA was “daydreaming”.

“The plan is just an illusion of the island attempting to resist reunification by force,” it said.

Last week, China flew 103 warplanes around Taiwan, which the island’s defence ministry said was among the highest in recently recorded incursions, decrying the “destructive unilateral actions”.

Beijing has also sent reconnaissance drones to the eastern side of Taiwan — a move that analysts have said could spell trouble for the island’s military bases there.

— AFP

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