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UBS’s Credit Suisse takeover, ‘deal of the century’?

UBS’s US$3.25 billion takeover of Credit Suisse, initially seen as a risky move, has proven lucrative with UBS reporting a substantial profit. Critics argue that the deal favored UBS and created a monopoly, while others seek fair compensation for Credit Suisse shareholders.

The long-term success of the merger remains uncertain as restructuring challenges lie ahead.

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1 year ago

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ZURICH, SWITZERLAND — Did banking giant UBS make “the deal of the century” when it bought one of the world’s biggest banks for a pittance as it teetered on the edge of the abyss?

Switzerland’s largest bank was in March strong-armed by Swiss authorities into a US$3.25-billion takeover of Credit Suisse, to keep its closest domestic rival from going under.

At the time, investors gasped at the risks UBS was taking on with the purchase.

But by August, the bank said it would not need the billions in support offered by the Swiss government and central bank to offset any surprises that might pop up in its stricken rival’s accounts.

That must mean that Credit Suisse’s situation was “much better than described in March”, Thomas Aeschi, a member of parliament with the populist rightwing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

UBS seemed to prove him right when it unveiled its second quarter results on 31 August.

The bank posted a towering net profit of US$29.2 billion for the three-month period, thanks to an exceptional gain due to the gulf between the amount paid for Credit Suisse and its book value.

‘Godsend’

“UBS has pulled off the deal of the century,” Switzerland’s Socialist Party said, maintaining the “rescue” was more of a “godsend”, allowing it to snatch up a bank at a dramatically reduced rate.

“If we had chosen another path, (like) a temporary or partial nationalisation,” said Samuel Bendahan, a Socialist MP and economics professor at the University of Lausanne, the Swiss state “would have taken on the risk, but those US$29 billion would have gone to the population”.

Instead, the takeover has created “a monopolistic situation”, he told AFP, warning that while this might strengthen UBS, it puts Switzerland in an extremely risky position if the new mega-bank were to one day face a crisis.

Politicians are not the only ones taking issue with the takeover.

Gisele Vlietstra, founder of the Swiss Investor Protection Association, told public broadcaster RTS that UBS’s towering quarterly profit confirms that the “intrinsic value” of Credit Suisse was “far higher” than the purchase price.

She said she hoped that the lawsuits brought by her association and others on behalf of thousands of Credit Suisse shareholders will help determine “the correct value” that they should be compensated.

‘Nickel and dime’

“UBS paid a nickel and dime” and “got rid of its main competitor” in one fell swoop, Carlo Lombardini, a lawyer and banking law professor at Lausanne University, told AFP.

The coming restructuring will clearly carry risks, “but having paid just three billion, it can’t go wrong”, he said, slamming the option chosen by the Swiss authorities.

Like UBS, Credit Suisse was listed among 30 international banks deemed too big to fail because of their importance in the global banking architecture.

But the collapse of three US regional lenders in March left the firm looking like the next weakest link in the chain.

The Swiss government feared Credit Suisse would have quickly defaulted and triggered a global crisis, shredding Switzerland’s reputation for sound banking.

But its chosen option for dealing with the issue was certainly a boon to UBS, which will now swell to manage US$5 trillion of invested assets.

Confidence ‘evaporated’

UBS chief Sergio Ermotti acknowledged in a recent interview with the SonntagsZeitung weekly that the bank had been “worried” about its competitor since 2016, and had among other things looked into the possibilities of buying it, for fear a foreign lender might snap it up.

He acknowledged that Credit Suisse may have survived for a time if the central bank had injected more cash, “but it would not have been enough, since confidence had evaporated”.

Since the takeover announcement in March, UBS has seen its share price soar 31 percent.

But the bank still faces significant challenges, Vontobel analyst Andreas Venditti told AFP.

The US$29 billion “is a huge one-off gain, but this is just accounting”, he said, stressing that “the losses and costs will come later”.

The analyst, who a few months ago wondered in a note whether UBS had secured “the deal of the decade or a decade of headaches”, stressed that “it’s going to be a huge task”.

He said it would only become clear “whether it was worth it” after most of the restructuring is done three years down the line.

Parts of the business are continuing to “produce huge losses”, he said, warning “many things can still go wrong”.

Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya agreed, recalling that “UBS was forced” into the merger.

Now it is up to the bank to “transform an ‘obligation’ to its advantage”.

— AFP

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China

Chinese tourists avoid Myanmar and Cambodia amid cyber scams and human trafficking fears

The Chinese crime action film “No More Bets” is causing anxiety among Chinese travelers, impacting holiday destinations like Myanmar and Cambodia.

The film explores cybercrime in Southeast Asia, drawing from real-life cases and highlighting the plight of victims lured into fraudulent schemes.

Published

12 months ago

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27 September 2023

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HONG KONG: A recent surge in apprehension among Chinese travelers is impacting Myanmar and Cambodia’s status as holiday destinations.

The catalyst for this unease is the immense success of the Chinese crime action film, “No More Bets,” which delves into the alarming world of cybercrime in Southeast Asia.

The movie, which has held the top spot at the Chinese box office since its early August release, exposes the intricate workings of cybercrime, drawing inspiration from real-life cases.

It narrates the harrowing story of a Chinese couple who, lured by lucrative overseas job offers, fall victim to fraudulent schemes that force them into online scam operations under constant surveillance.

With the film’s tagline, “One more viewer, one less fraud victim,” the creators aim to raise awareness of this growing issue.

In recent years, Myanmar and Cambodia have grappled with headlines of online fraud-related human trafficking schemes.

On Aug 29, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights warned that the problem persists, with an estimated 120,000 people in Myanmar and 100,000 in Cambodia ensnared in situations where criminal groups compel them to conduct online scams.

Moreover, other nations in the vicinity, such as Laos, the Philippines, and Thailand, have been identified as significant hubs for human trafficking transit or as destinations themselves, hosting tens of thousands of individuals.

The aftermath of the film has sent ripples through China’s outbound tourism industry, as travelers become increasingly reluctant to explore these countries.

Additionally, Cambodia is taking measures to ban the public screening of the movie due to alleged harm to its image and reputation, along with the potential consequences for the country’s tourism sector.

Southeast Asia travel plans decline among Chinese tourists due to safety worries

In 2019, 35% of Cambodia’s foreign visitors were Chinese, making China its largest tourism market.

Likewise, China was a significant source of tourists for Myanmar even during the pandemic and ongoing civil conflict.

Tourism insiders have reported that the cyber scams in Myanmar have severely damaged the country’s reputation, eroding tourist confidence.

Despite China lifting a ban on group tours on Aug 10, the number of inquiries and planned visits has dwindled.

According to a report by The Japan Times, a recent survey conducted on the Chinese social media platform Weibo disclosed that out of 54,000 participants, 48,000 indicated their intention to refrain from visiting Myanmar, with an additional 3,000 expressing hesitancy, primarily due to safety concerns.

In a different survey targeting Chinese online users about their willingness to journey to Southeast Asia, more than 85% of respondents indicated that they would not contemplate travelling to the region for the same reason.

Bids to attract Chinese tourists

To woo back Chinese tourists after the ban on group tours was lifted in January, Cambodia’s Ministry of Tourism launched the “China Ready” initiative in August.

This program’s goal is to grant accreditation to tourism businesses that meet the standards set by Chinese authorities.

Through this initiative, Cambodia has set its sights on welcoming a minimum of 800,000 Chinese visitors by the conclusion of this year.

Meanwhile, in July, Myanmar signed a memorandum of understanding with China’s Jilin province to promote each other as key tourist destinations and enhance trade and economic relations.

However, these efforts with a focus on China have faced significant resistance and opposition from Chinese internet users.

Videos posted on social media platforms explaining these initiatives have been inundated with critical comments from individuals voicing safety apprehensions and raising questions about the timing of this partnership.

“If I visit the place, I don’t think I can leave there physically intact,” one user stated, regarding the Cambodian initiative.

International efforts to combat human trafficking-linked scams

China itself grapples with online fraud, with authorities revealing thousands of cases in 2022, resulting in the arrest of gang leaders and key members of criminal groups.

One case comes to mind of a 46-year-old individual named Xin Weilin, the CEO of a tourism company based in Guiyang who managed to break free after being compelled to work for a scam syndicate in Myanmar.

In a similar incident, eight individuals from Sarawak were tricked by a job scam and ended up being compelled to become scammers in Myanmar.

Originally, they were offered jobs in Thailand through Facebook, promising salaries of RM3,000 to RM6,000 (approximately US$1,275) per person.

However, these victims had no knowledge of the jobs they were being offered.

After arriving in Thailand, they were immediately transported to Myanmar and forced into working as scammers.

If they failed to meet their ’employers’ targets, they faced abuse and threats of being sold to other parties.

As such, the Chinese Embassy in Myanmar has been cautioning citizens not to pursue high-salary online job postings or engage in unlawful activities.

In a display of growing multinational cooperation, China has partnered with public security officials from Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar to combat human trafficking-related online fraud and gambling crimes, establishing a coordination center in the Thai city of Chiang Mai to enhance collaborative efforts against these issues.

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ASEAN

ASEAN nations unite with UNODC to combat organized crime and human trafficking in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asian nations, in partnership with UNODC, have initiated a groundbreaking strategy to combat organized crime and human trafficking.

A UN policy report has exposed the pervasive presence of these criminal groups in Myanmar’s border regions, making it challenging for law enforcement to intervene, while trafficking victims remain trapped in remote areas vulnerable to online scams.

Published

12 months ago

on

27 September 2023

By

BANGKOK, THAILAND: Southeast Asian nations, in collaboration with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), have launched a groundbreaking strategy aimed at tackling organized crime and human trafficking in the region.

The initiative, announced in the Thai capital, Bangkok, is set to target criminal activities primarily linked to casinos, while also addressing money laundering and cybercrime.

Officials from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), joined by China, and representatives from UNODC, unveiled the comprehensive plan of action.

The new plan aims to strengthen preventative measures and enhance the capabilities of law enforcement agencies to combat international organized crime and human trafficking on a regional scale.

“Trafficking in persons connected to casinos and scam operations run by organized crime has mushroomed across Southeast Asia, particularly in the Mekong” remarked Jeremy Douglas, UNODC Regional Representative to Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

“There is an urgent need for regional cooperation to address these increasingly integrated and interlinked crimes in the region, as well as the ecosystem they exist in.”

Human trafficking, often utilized to recruit victims into criminal activities, is just one facet of transnational organized crime, as highlighted in a policy report released by UNODC on Tuesday (26 Sep).

This criminal activity is closely associated with border casinos, large-scale money laundering operations, cybercrimes, and an array of other illicit offenses. The report also documented credible instances of torture and extortion within these criminal operations over the past year.

Profits generated by criminal organizations in the region have reached unprecedented levels, with illicit funds increasingly funneled through the regional casino industry and other cash-intensive businesses, including the surge in cryptocurrency usage.

“Organized crime groups are converging in the region where they see vulnerabilities,” Mr. Douglas commented.

Billions siphoned equal to half of a Nation’s GDP

He added that “operations against syndicates in some countries like the Philippines have caused a partial displacement, and we have seen criminals moving infrastructure into places where they see opportunity – basically where they expect they will be able to take advantage and not be held to account, to remote and border areas of the Mekong,” he said.

According to the report, scam operations in one Southeast Asian country are estimated to generate a staggering US$7.5 and US$12.5 billion, or half the value of that country’s GDP.

“One group of trafficking victims can generate hundreds of thousands of US dollars in a week for traffickers,” the report noted.

UN Policy Report highlights transnational crime gangs establishing remote bases in Myanmar

The UN’s policy report has shed light on the alarming presence of organized crime gangs operating in the border areas of Myanmar, adjacent to China.

These remote locations, often inaccessible to law enforcement, serve as operational hubs for criminal syndicates perpetrating online scams, leaving trafficking victims with scant chances of escape.

Powerful Chinese and Taiwanese criminal organizations, operating primarily in the Mekong region and the Philippines, have orchestrated a “scamdemic” resulting in billions of dollars being siphoned off through tactics that include romance scams, extortion, and investment pyramid schemes.

While certain crackdowns have been executed in Cambodia and the Philippines, these criminal groups are evolving and perfecting their fraudulent activities from fortified compounds located within the protective umbrella of ethnic rebel groups in the conflict-ridden terrain of Myanmar.

Locations of casinos and scam centres in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar (source: UN report)

In Myanmar, a significant hub for criminal activities has flourished in the Myawaddy region, situated just across a small river from the western Thai border town of Mae Sot.

Another network of compounds stretches along Myanmar’s eastern border with China, extending northward through Shan State, passing through the special administrative area of Wa State, and reaching Kokang, which shares a border with China’s Yunnan province.

Transnational crime syndicates operating openly and forming unusual alliances

The report has found that, rather than operating in the shadows, transnational organised crime groups there can be remarkably open, in some cases presenting themselves as legitimate business entities or even philanthropic organisations.

Some organised crime chiefs have developed public alliances with influential business leaders and officials.

Co-chaired by the Philippines and UNODC, the new plan is finalised and will be tabled by the Philippines at the next ASEAN Senior Officials Meeting on Transnational Crime.

“Addressing this issue in one or a few countries’ domestic contexts, while necessary and welcome, will not have a significant impact,” warned Rebecca Miller, UNODC Regional Advisor on Human Trafficking and Migrant Smuggling.

“The plan the region has agreed to, includes practical and targeted actions to address transnational crime comprehensively and strategically.  Progress is being made, but more needs to be done and UNODC stands ready to support,” she added.

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