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Singapore’s property market now considered fairly valued, UBS report

Singapore’s private residential property market has transitioned into a state of fair valuation, according to a recent UBS report. Despite a 15% increase in real prices since 2018, stricter regulations and cooling measures have caused home prices to rise by only 3% in inflation-adjusted terms between mid-2022 and mid-2023.

Additionally, rents, which have surged by approximately 40% over the same period, are expected to soften.

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A recent UBS report has reclassified Singapore’s private residential property market as “fairly valued” after a period of slowed price dynamics.

Real estate prices surged by 15% since 2018, despite regulatory tightening, while rents spiked by approximately 40% over the same period.

However, cooling measures and stricter lending policies have led to a modest 3% increase in home prices in inflation-adjusted terms between mid-2022 and mid-2023.

UBS anticipates both home price growth moderation and rent softening as housing supply increases and demand stabilises.

Regulatory risks are a key concern, as rental market regulations remain a possibility.

Affordability, as measured by the price-to-income ratio, is stretched in numerous cities despite recent house price declines.

Unaffordable housing is often attributed to factors such as strong foreign investment, zoning restrictions, or strict rental market regulations.

Weak investment demand poses risks of price corrections and long-term price appreciation challenges.

In Singapore, it takes an average service worker ten years of income to afford a 650 sq ft flat near the city centre, making it more affordable than in Hong Kong, where it would take 22 times the average annual income.

Among other cities, Miami, Madrid, and Toronto exhibit more sustainable price-to-income ratios.

Singapore ranks sixth for affordability among 25 cities surveyed by UBS.

Price-to-rent multiples have declined compared to the previous year, with a Singapore apartment taking around 23 years of rent to pay for itself, in contrast to 15 years in Miami and 42 years in Tel Aviv.

UBS found that real housing prices across 25 major cities had dropped by 5% in inflation-adjusted terms on average.

Rising financing costs due to tripled average mortgage rates since 2021 have hindered housing price growth.

The report highlights that annual nominal price growth stagnated after a 10% rise in the cities analysed, with many cities now approaching mid-2020 price levels.

Only Zurich and Tokyo remain in the bubble risk category this year, with several cities previously in this category, including Toronto, Frankfurt, Munich, Hong Kong, Vancouver, Amsterdam, and Tel Aviv, now classified as overvalued.

This group also includes housing markets such as Miami, Geneva, Los Angeles, London, Stockholm, Paris, and Sydney.

Apart from Singapore, other property markets deemed “fairly valued” by UBS include New York, Boston, San Francisco, Madrid, Milan, Sao Paulo, Warsaw, and Dubai.

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Housing

Bukit Panjang makes history with first-ever million-dollar resale flat

In September, a Bukit Panjang HDB executive resale flat achieved a historic milestone, selling for $1.02 million, the first in the estate to breach the million-dollar mark.

As per SRI, 2023 has seen 322 million-dollar HDB resale deals to date, compared to 369 in 2022.

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SINGAPORE: The serene residential enclave of Bukit Panjang has witnessed its first-ever million-dollar Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat sale, sending shockwaves through the local real estate market.

The record-breaking transaction occurred in September when a spacious 127 square meter (1,367 square feet) executive apartment, situated on levels 28 to 38 of Block 181 Jelebu Road, changed hands for a staggering $1.02 million, equating to a price per square foot (psf) of $746.

As per Singapore Realtors Inc (SRI), this highly coveted flat boasts a prime location nestled between the 28th and 30th floors of Block 181, a well-established development along Jelebu Road, completed in 2003.

Block 181 is renowned for its diverse mix of four-room, five-room, and executive flats.

The flat’s lease commenced in 2003, making the development approximately 20 years old.

SRI highlighted that Bukit Panjang has faced a scarcity of Build-to-Order (BTO) projects in recent years, with the last BTO launch dating back to 2016.

Consequently, resale properties within this sought-after enclave of Bukit Panjang have become a preferred choice among homebuyers seeking a place to call their own.

The strategic positioning of this development further enhances its appeal, offering close proximity to key amenities such as the Bukit Panjang MRT station on the downtown line (approximately 148 meters away), the bustling Hillion Mall, and the Bukit Panjang Integrated Transport Hub, just a short 5-minute walk away.

This enviable accessibility to public transportation and shopping centers positions this resale flat as an attractive and practical option for those seeking a convenient and comfortable living experience in Bukit Panjang.

A range of schools is conveniently located within a 1 to 2-kilometer radius of the HDB resale flat, including West View Primary School, Zhenghua Primary School, Greenridge Primary School, Bukit Panjang Primary School, Chua Chu Kang Secondary School, and West Spring Secondary School.

322 Million-Dollar deals to date

According to SRI, to date, a total of 322 million-dollar HDB resale deals have transpired within the first nine months of 2023, in contrast to the 369 million-dollar deals recorded in 2022.

Over the past few years, numerous residential estates across the island have borne witness to the phenomenon of million-dollar transactions, with notable exceptions being Choa Chu Kang, Jurong West, Sembawang, and Sengkang.

Singapore in August this year witnessed a significant surge in the resale market for HDB flats, a total of 54 HDB resale flats were transacted for at least $1,000,000, marking a notable increase compared to July 2023, which saw 32 such transactions, and June of the same year, with 34 million-dollar flat sales.

This is also the highest volume of resale flats transacted for at least $1 million to date, according to data from the Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX) issued on September.

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Property

Property market August sales drops amid Ghost Month traditions

August brought a notable dip in Singapore’s property market, with sluggish sales attributed to traditional beliefs and concerns over property prices, as developers strategize for the coming months.

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SINGAPORE: The Singapore property market has witnessed a notable slowdown in sales for August, with developers selling just 394 new private residential units, marking a significant 72.1% drop compared to July. Additionally, this figure represented a 10% year-on-year decrease.

When considering executive condominiums (ECs) alongside private units, the total number of units sold in August amounted to 649, down from the 1,471 units sold the previous month.

These statistics, revealed by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), reflect the common trend of August being a subdued month for property transactions. Traditional beliefs surrounding the lunar calendar’s seventh month often deter potential buyers.

Developers also adhered to this pattern by avoiding major project launches during August.

Despite the slowdown, 590 units were still introduced to the market, marking a 72% reduction from the previous month but a considerable increase from the 134 units launched in the same period the previous year.

Knight Frank Singapore head of research Leonard Tay, attributed the sluggishness in sales to multiple factors, including concerns over property prices relative to rising borrowing costs, economic uncertainty, and the availability of public housing options through Build-To-Order (BTO) launches.

Sales dynamics shifted significantly in August as developers recorded most new-unit sales before the onset of the Festival of the Hungry Ghosts on 16 August.

Notably, there were no transactions for residential properties priced at S$10 million or above during August, continuing the trend from July. However, June had witnessed two high-value transactions at Les Maisons Nassim, totaling S$32.7 million and S$30.8 million.

Huttons Asia senior director for data and analytics, Lee Sze Teck, pointed out that some buyers had adjusted their budgets in response to higher Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty rates for investment properties and foreign buyers.

Foreigners’ property purchases dwindled to 12 units in August from 19 units in July, according to Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) Realis data.

Half of these acquisitions occurred in the prime Core Central Region (CCR), with the other half in Rest of Central Region (RCR) city-fringe locations and suburban Outside Central Region (OCR).

The standout performer in August’s new home sales was the sole EC launch of 2023, Altura, in Bukit Batok West Avenue 8, which sold 62.5% of its 360 units.

According to Christine Sun, senior vice-president of research and analytics at OrangeTee & Tie, ECs continue to appeal due to their affordability and investment potential.

ERA’s key executive officer Eugene Lim, , highlighted that developers collectively introduced eight new private projects and one EC between July and August 2023, totaling over 3,000 units. He anticipates an additional 13 project launches by year-end.

The slow pace of August’s private home sales was attributed to the absence of major project launches during the month.

Notably, sales were primarily driven by four projects: Orchard Sophia, The Arden, The LakeGarden Residences, and TMW Maxwell.

With an influx of new properties entering the market, buyers now have a wider array of options to consider.

Propnex Realty head of research and content Wong Siew Ying, observed that several new projects in District 15, including Grand Dunman, may have revived interest in Liv @ MB, while TMW Maxwell likely attracted attention to One Bernam.

Categorised by region, 48.7% (192 units) of August’s sales transpired in the Outside Central Region (OCR), followed by the Rest of Central Region (RCR) at 26.9% (106 units), and the Core Central Region (CCR) at 24.4% (96 units).

Cumulatively for the year through August, new home sales reached 5,189 units, representing a 5.6% decrease compared to the same period the previous year, according to CBRE’s head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia Tricia Song.

Upcoming property launches include Marina View Residences (with over 700 units), suburban project Hillock Green, and J’Den, the redevelopment of JCube mall.

CBRE predicts that private home prices, which saw a 3.1% increase in the first half of 2023, have likely peaked and are expected to stabilise in the coming quarters.

The absence of a significant price correction is anticipated, given low unsold inventory and healthy household finances, unless a prolonged recession and widespread job losses occur.

Song’s forecast for 2023 anticipates 3% growth in private home prices, a slowdown compared to the 8.6% growth witnessed in 2022, largely due to a weaker economic outlook, with official government forecasts indicating lower GDP growth rates than the previous year.

Huttons Data Analytics estimates developer sales of more than 5,200 private residential units in the first eight months of 2023.

With up to 10 new launches in the pipeline from October 2023, developer sales could end the year between 7,000 and 8,000 private residential units, still higher than 2022’s 7,099 private residential units despite the economic uncertainties.

Prices of new homes are likely to trend higher in 2023 on the back of imported inflation and high interest rates.

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