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房产前景分析:若经济衰退来临 应先提前作好准备面对

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尽管总理公署部长英兰妮,早前对媒体表示我国经济尚未陷入衰退,但不利消息如制造业出口在8月份急剧衰退、PMI指数降至3年来最低点、2019年GDP增长预测下调0巴仙至1巴仙等等,都在显示我国经济当前面对的隐忧和挑战。

新加坡房地产网页Property Soul于周二(8日),发表一篇文章《经济衰退对物业又有何种意义》(What Recession Means for Properties),在本社英语站谈到几个观点,可供读者参考。

文内指出 , 经济衰退是全球性问题,无一幸免,尽管各国政府都在各尽所能,避免国家经济衰退,包括泰国投入100亿美元刺激经济、香港宣布拨款24.3亿美元舒缓经济措施、中国持续让人民币贬值等等。

但从近数个月来,经济衰退似乎成为全球的共识。举例来说,美国银行表示将在未来12个月,有三分一的可能出现衰退;摩根大通则将经济衰退的可能性提高到四成以上;摩根士丹利预测第三季度将出现经济衰退等等,

事实上,某些国家已经开始陷入衰退的迹象,例如中美两大国的经济因长久的中美贸易战而持续放缓,而德国的制造业已经陷入衰退,甚至连带服务业也受到波动;也有经济分析师表示全球科技、制造业以及工业正在经历衰退中。

经济衰退对物业造成什么影响?

那这对物业产生何种影响呢? Property Soul 指出,在经济衰退的期间,由于购买兴趣较低,因此房价与房产两均会下调。以之前的金融危机为例,2008年第二季度到2009年第二季度,市建局的私人住在物业价格指数下跌了25巴仙,而2008年同年,私人住宅的交易量下跌了高达66巴仙。

即指从2008年中期的峰值跌至一年后的谷底,但市场随后在四个季度中恢复。

然而,回到了这次衰退前的迹象,其房地产业并没有产生预期的热潮。目前在政府推出九项冷却措施后,其房地产仍处于停滞状态,房价与成交量都远远低于上一个峰值。因此,很难预测即将到来的金融危机中,房地产市场会被破坏的程度,在各种市场降温与经济放缓之下,房地产很有可能陷入衰退。

文内亦举例在1997年亚洲金融危机前,政府也曾打击炒卖,当时在面临金融危机之际,由于缺乏强大的抵御,私人住宅的价格从1996年中期峰值到1998年底,直跌了45巴仙。

对此,文章表示,本次经历经济衰退是否能够度过难关,取决于我国的持有力以及坚持直到房价再次回升的一天。

衰退又会带来什么影响呢?文内指出,首当其冲的通常是职场新人和老鸟。众所周知,失业、企业倒闭以及破产的情况屡屡发生,新人刚刚毕业,缺乏工作经验,所以当公司不愿请人时他们较难找到新的工作。另外,还有高薪的职场老手,他们可能接近退休年龄,因此被要求提前退休。

另一种群体就是属于中年阶层的PMET,他们通常都是上有老下有小、各种房屋贷款和其贷款尾随在后,对他们而言,能够购买或换新家都是他们的目标,因此如果被裁员了,他们可能会难以偿还所背负的贷款。

经济衰退会让许多屋主付不出房贷吗?

在来临的经济衰退中,可能会发生很多屋主无法偿还贷款的现象吗?若是在2013年6月前购买的人,他们又会不会受影响?

文章表示,其关键问题就在于有朝一日,未偿还的房屋贷款会高于房产的价值,即指负资产净值。银行有权要求借款人填补未尝还贷款与市值之间的差额。即使借款人被迫出售房产,但其出售金额都未必能够偿还银行的贷款,加上他如果拖欠贷款,他将被银行贴上不良信用用户。

它所带来的影响力不仅仅是当下,很有可能是未来的十年,根据2019年的统计,美国仍有多达200万的屋主陷入负资产的状态。

文内最后也提供读者一些策略希望能够在衰退来临之际,让大家能够平安度过。

  1. 雇主

管理自己的个人理财与资产组合,可以将自己多余的现金当作应急基金。同时对于手头上低回报或购买错误的物业,应该要趁早卖掉

  1. 买家

目前若想购买房产可以先缓缓,可以再货比三家,待经济衰退来临之际,可以低价购买。若现在需要购买,尽可能准备更多的存款,利用低带宽来降低成为负资产的风险。

  1. 投资者

远离高风险投资包括高价物业、基金、股票、IPO等。其次,储存大量现金,降低风险。再来手握有价值的货币,新币是好的选择,目前我们的政府财政稳健、货币稳定,比起邻国其他国家更具有弹性。

现金放在相对安全(避险)的地方,也没有所谓100巴仙安全的银行。最后,关注在经济衰退期间或之后良好表现的资产,将部分资产投资组合减缓或抛掉没有增长的投资,也勿将所有投资放在一处,因为没有投资是百分百安全。

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Farewell to Dr Lee Wei Ling: Rain marks solemn tribute, echoing her father’s funeral

Dr Lee Wei Ling’s funeral was conducted on 12 October 2024, in Singapore, with family members leading the procession in the rain. In a heartfelt eulogy, her brother, Lee Hsien Yang, remembered her dedication to medicine and family. Dr Lee had requested a simple ceremony, with her ashes to be scattered at sea.

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Li Huanwu and Li Shaowu sending off their aunt, Dr Lee Wei Ling in the rain (Photo: Lianhe Zaobao/唐家鴻)

Dr Lee Wei Ling was farewelled on 12 October 2024, in a solemn funeral ceremony attended by close family members and friends.

The weather was marked by light rain, drawing comparisons to the conditions during her father, Lee Kuan Yew’s funeral in 2015.

Her nephews, Li Huanwu and Li Shaowu, led the procession, carrying Dr Lee’s portrait and walking side by side under the rain, symbolically reflecting the loss felt by her family.

In his emotional eulogy through a recorded video, her brother, Lee Hsien Yang, spoke of Dr Lee’s profound contributions to medicine and her unshakable devotion to family.

He described her as a remarkable individual whose life had left an indelible mark on those who knew her, as well as on Singapore’s medical community.

Expressing deep sorrow at her passing, Lee Hsien Yang reflected on their close bond and the immense loss he felt, having been unable to attend her final farewell.

He recalled his private goodbye to her in June 2022, a poignant moment that stayed with him during her last months.

Lee Hsien Yang also reiterated Dr Lee’s wish for a simple funeral, a reflection of her humility.

In accordance with her wishes, her body was cremated, and her ashes will be scattered at sea, symbolising her desire for a modest and unobtrusive departure from the world.

LHY acknowledged the efforts of his sons, Li Huanwu and Li Shaowu, for their role in managing their aunt’s care during his absence, thanking them for their dedication to her comfort in her final days.

During his eulogy for his sister, Lee Hsien Yang also conveyed a message from Dr Lee regarding the family’s long-standing issue surrounding their home at 38 Oxley Road.

Quoting from Dr Lee’s message, LHY said: “My father, Lee Kuan Yew, and my mother, Kwa Geok Choo’s, unwavering and deeply felt wish was for their house at 38 Oxley Road, Singapore 238629, to be demolished upon the last parent’s death.”

Dr Lee had been a vocal advocate for ensuring that this wish was honoured since Lee Kuan Yew’s death in 2015.

Dr Lee and LHY had strongly supported their father’s wishes, while their elder brother, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, took a different stance. This disagreement led to a public and highly publicised rift within the family.

In her final message, Dr Lee reiterated: “Lee Kuan Yew had directed each of his three children to ensure that their parents’ wish for demolition be fulfilled. He had also appealed directly to the people of Singapore. Please honour my father by honouring his wish for his home to be demolished.”

Dr Lee had maintained a private life, focusing on her medical career as a respected neurologist. She was known for her candid views, often unflinching in her advocacy for transparency and integrity.

Her professional accomplishments, combined with her strong commitment to her parents’ legacy, made her a significant figure in both Singapore’s medical community and public discourse.

Diagnosed in 2020 with progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP), a rare neurodegenerative disorder, Dr Lee faced immense physical and emotional challenges in her final years.

The illness progressively affected her movement, speech, and ability to swallow.

Despite her health struggles, Dr Lee remained actively involved in public discussions, particularly on matters concerning her father’s legacy, until her condition worsened to the point where communication became difficult.

By March 2023, her brother LHY revealed that her condition had deteriorated significantly, and he feared he might not be able to see her again due to his own circumstances.

Even in her final months, Dr Lee maintained a close relationship with her immediate family, who cared for her during her illness.

Dr Lee’s funeral and cremation mark the end of a significant era for the Lee family and Singapore.

Her legacy as a dedicated neurologist and a firm advocate for her parents’ values will continue to resonate, even as the debates over the future of the Oxley Road property remain unresolved.

The rain that fell during her funeral, so reminiscent of her father’s final farewell, added a symbolic layer to this momentous chapter in Singapore’s history.

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TJC issued 3rd POFMA order under Minister K Shanmugam for alleged falsehoods

The Transformative Justice Collective (TJC) was issued its third POFMA correction order on 5 October 2024 under the direction of Minister K Shanmugam for alleged falsehoods about death penalty processes. TJC has rejected the government’s claims, describing POFMA as a tool to suppress dissent.

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The Transformative Justice Collective (TJC), an advocacy group opposed to the death penalty, was issued its third Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act (POFMA) correction direction on 5 October 2024.

The correction was ordered by Minister for Home Affairs and Law, K Shanmugam, following TJC’s publication of what the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) alleges to be false information regarding Singapore’s death row procedures and the prosecution of drug trafficking cases.

These statements were made on TJC’s website and across its social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and X (formerly Twitter).

In addition to TJC, civil activist Kokila Annamalai was also issued a correction direction by the minister over posts she made on Facebook and X between 4 and 5 October 2024.

According to MHA, these posts echoed similar views on the death penalty and the legal procedures for drug-related offences, and contained statements that the ministry claims are false concerning the treatment of death row prisoners and the state’s legal responsibilities in drug trafficking cases.

MHA stated that the posts suggested the government schedules and stays executions arbitrarily, without due regard to legal processes, and that the state does not bear the burden of proving drug trafficking charges.

However, these alleged falsehoods are contested by MHA, which maintains that the government strictly follows legal procedures, scheduling executions only after all legal avenues have been exhausted, and that the state always carries the burden of proof in such cases.

In its official release, MHA emphasised, “The prosecution always bears the legal burden of proving its case beyond a reasonable doubt, and this applies to all criminal offences, including drug trafficking.”

It also pointed to an article on the government fact-checking site Factually to provide further clarification on the issues raised.

As a result of these allegations, both TJC and Annamalai are now required to post correction notices. TJC must display these corrections on its website and social media platforms, while Annamalai is required to carry similar notices on her Facebook and X posts.

TikTok has also been issued a targeted correction direction, requiring the platform to communicate the correction to all Singapore-based users who viewed the related TJC post.

In a statement following the issuance of the correction direction, TJC strongly rejected the government’s claims. The group criticised the POFMA law, calling it a “political weapon used to crush dissent,” and argued that the order was more about the exercise of state power than the pursuit of truth. “We have put up the Correction Directions not because we accept any of what the government asserts, but because of the grossly unjust terms of the POFMA law,” TJC stated.

TJC further argued that the government’s control over Singapore’s media landscape enables it to push pro-death penalty views without opposition. The group also stated that it would not engage in prolonged legal battles over the POFMA correction orders, opting to focus on its abolitionist work instead.

This marks the third time TJC has been subject to a POFMA correction direction in recent months.

The group was previously issued two orders in August 2024 for making similar statements concerning death row prisoners.

In its latest statement, MHA noted that despite being corrected previously, TJC had repeated what the ministry views as falsehoods.

MHA also criticised TJC for presenting the perspective of a convicted drug trafficker without acknowledging the harm caused to victims of drug abuse.

Annamalai, a prominent civil rights activist, is also known for her involvement in various social justice campaigns. She was charged in June 2024 for her participation in a pro-Palestinian procession near the Istana. Her posts, now subject to correction, contained information similar to those presented by TJC regarding death penalty procedures and drug-related cases.

POFMA, which was introduced in 2019, allows the government to issue correction directions when it deems falsehoods are being spread online.

Critics of the law argue that it can be used to suppress dissent, while the government asserts that it is a necessary tool for combating misinformation. The law has been frequently invoked against opposition politicians and activists.

As of October 2024, Minister K Shanmugam has issued 17 POFMA directions, more than any other minister. Shanmugam, who was instrumental in introducing POFMA, is followed by National Development Minister Desmond Lee, who has issued 10 POFMA directions.

Major media outlets, including The Straits Times, Channel News Asia, and Mothership, have covered the POFMA directions. However, as of the time of writing, none have included TJC’s response rejecting the government’s allegations.

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