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Democratization in Southeast Asia: Insights from Democracy Report 2023

Democracy Report 2023 by V-Dem Institute shows hope in reversing democratic backsliding in small countries, including those in Southeast Asia, but notes nine countries in the region have declined substantially.

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2 years ago

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by Simone Galimberti

The latest edition of the Democracy Report 2023 published by Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute is once again a sober reminder of the status of democracy around the world.

Yet, as its thematic title, “Defiance in the Face of Autocratization” might suggest, there is hope that the trend can buck the slide towards more and more illiberal democracies and totalitarian regimes.

Indeed Chapter 4 focuses on nations that are able to change track and reverse their democratic backsliding. These are nations from both the South of the World, Bolivia, Ecuador, Maldives, Zambia and from the so-called North, Slovenia, and South Korea, but the case studies also revolve around nations in the between, fragile and small countries with enormous social, economic and ethnic challenges like Moldova, North Macedonia.

In relation to the Asia Pacific, four of the countries that have been democratizing since 2012 are in the Asia-Pacific region: Fiji, Malaysia, Nepal, and Sri Lanka”.

Unfortunately, the glass is truly almost empty for the rest of the region as the report explains, “Again, more than twice as many – nine countries – have declined substantially: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, The Philippines, and Thailand.

With a number of elections, of which several partially flawed or completely bogus, coming up in South East Asia, it’s worth reflecting on South East Asia, a region that has always perceived democracy more like a drag rather than a propeller to its economic expansion.

After all, in the report, there were no major surprises here if not the confirmation that Timor-Leste, despite its struggles to create a more equitable and just nation, remains a “point of light” amid a lot of democratic mediocrity and a sea of authoritarian or semi-authoritarian nations.

To start with, the citizens and especially the youths of Thailand, certainly do not lack an eagerness and boldness for a major opening of the political space.

This could be a very real outcome that might be at hand from the upcoming parliamentary elections, even though such development could open up the possibility of a return to a volatile and fragile past fraught with extreme political polarization and the real possibility of confrontations among the parties.

We did not need to wait for the 27-year jail sentence of opposition leader Kem Sokha to confirm that Cambodia is a lost cause and that the general election in July will once again be manipulated and rigged to confirm the regime in power.

I would not totally discount Brunei and its democratization prospects for a slow and very gradual political opening up, and perhaps this tiny nation could unveil some surprises in the medium term.

Worryingly, even Indonesia, once considered a beacon for liberalism and freedoms in the region, is a considerably weaker democracy now.

The status of democracy there can even considerably get worst if the current Defense Minister and Army Lieutenant General Probowo Subinanto wins the presidential election in 2024.

Perhaps it is too early to express a final judgment in the early months of the presidency of President Marcos Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr in the Philippines but his administration could surprise the international community, especially now that it crossed, once again, the Rubicon, with a strategic reproachment to the USA.

Setting aside Viet Nam, Laos and tragically Myanmar, Malaysia with Prime Minister Anwar is laying the foundations for a political system that is less corrupted and more transparent and better able to deliver for the people.

Though local elections are not in the pipeline any time soon, the democratic credentials that the Anwar administration is slowly creating might truly be a linchpin for a real bottom-up governance renewal.

Singapore remains a unique case study with a party in power since independence that has been dominating the political space and still finds it difficult to accept the idea of having to deal with a weak and tiny but rather tenacious and, most annoyingly, “official” opposition.

It is worth making some more considerations about Singapore, the nation where the term governance is often interchangeably used to describe a system that is considered a worldwide benchmark for effective and efficient delivery.

Yet the recent parliamentary debate about public housing that saw a tight back and forth between the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) and the Workers’ Party in its capacity of official opposition proved that a check on the governing party, notwithstanding its solid grip on power, can be healthy and useful.

The fact that the opposition is slowly coming out of age in the island nation is probably symptomatic of an era that is slowly changing.

After all, out of an imperative of remaining a cohesive and united society and despite the fact that the “self-reliance” mantra remains the key cornerstone of PAP’s governance model, Singapore is slowly emerging as a more “human” and less selfish society.

This is a process that, even if it might be called paternalistic and top-down, is guided by a domineering party that, finally, realized that the principle of personal responsibility, itself a pillar of the nation’s governing philosophy, alone, is not enough and people need help.

Can a government that at least is trying its best to meet the increasing social and economic needs of its people keep ignoring another type of more intangible need that the whole society, rather than the elite in power, might seriously start longing for?

In its constant pursuit of a better and (more equal) Singapore that, the PAP might have now to come to terms with the fact the opening of closed and contested political spaces cannot be an irritant or speedbump to its development but rather a win -win for the whole society.

Perhaps even unconsciously, the PAP leadership realized this inevitable change at the societal level but it is still dragging its feet and remains in a state of denial, avoiding to see a reality slowly emerging.

Deputy Prime Minister Lawrance Wong understood the importance of listening to the people’s concerns with its Singapore Forward exercise, where he regularly meets his compatriots and discusses the most pressing issues they face.

In his speech inaugurating this initiative on 28 June 2022, he said:

“How can we do more to equip and empower our people, whatever their starting point in life, and ensure everyone is able to maximize their potential? How can we as a society better assure Singaporeans and better care for their needs in this volatile and unpredictable world? “

Would DPM Wong contemplate that genuine people’s empowerment cannot happen unless a stronger set of freedoms and liberties are also granted to them or that for the citizens to be able to maximize their potentials, “certain” other conditions that, as per now are rather inexistant in Singapore, should also be in place?

In enabling a more conducive environment for a truly free exchange of ideas and opinions, especially those which different from the prevailing national narratives, Singapore can find its own model and certainly learn from what’s going on in the West on how not to fall in a continuous cycle of polarization and acrimonies.

It will also be up to a less fragmented and too fragile opposition, including the Progress Singapore Party (PSP), the other party represented in the PAP-dominated parliament and up to numerous tiny parties unable to win any representation in the parliament, to be able to put forward a more unified vision for a different Singapore.

Most importantly, it is up to the youths of Singapore to start becoming more assertive of their rights, including those not yet granted to them.

They need to claim space for genuine dissent and criticism that, no matter how constitutional and constructive is going to be, is going to annoy those in power inevitably.

In Tokyo last year, Singapore Prime Minster Lee Hsien Loong said at Nikkei’s Future of Asia conference last May that the political system in Singapore “cannot be reinvented but it can be improved”.

It’s high time that the bricks for such “modernization” process started, and one way of them could be for the Singapore Forward exercise to start also dealing with political and freedoms rights, including the role of parties in the society.

Complementary to it, discussions should be held on the potential that deliberative, bottom-up democracy can play in upgrading the “system”, a system that could fit well the unique features of Singapore and could also suit the PAP in terms of ensuring a less “feared” opening up.

A group of independent experts from the academia and civil society, for example, could also be encouraged to formulate new options for a more open Singapore.

Meanwhile, once again, just in a few months from now, Timor-Leste will again prove its democratic credentials, and all the rest of the region should learn from it.

Simone Galimberti writes on democracy, social inclusion, youth development, regional integration, SDGs and human rights in the context of Asia Pacific.

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ASEAN

UNODC report: Transnational Organized Crime continues to thrive due to ASEAN’s disorganized and reactionary response

The UNODC’s policy report criticizes the disorganized and reactive responses to trafficking in Southeast Asia.

These efforts have failed to dismantle Transnational Organized Crime groups, allowing them to persist and thrive.

Published

1 year ago

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27 September 2023

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BANGKOK, THAILAND: In a recently published policy report, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has strongly criticized the responses to the issue of trafficking in persons for forced criminality in Southeast Asia, characterizing them as disorganized and reactionary, lacking a systematic and well-coordinated approach.

These sporadic responses have proven ineffective in dismantling the Transnational Organized Crime groups engaged in these criminal activities. Despite previous efforts, these syndicates have persistently operated and thrived, as highlighted in the report.

Released on Tuesday (26 Sep) under the title “Casinos, Cyber Fraud, and Trafficking in Persons for Forced Criminality in Southeast Asia,” the UNODC report sheds light on the rapid expansion of the online casino and gaming industry, especially in high-risk areas of the Mekong region, notably Southeast Asia.

The ad-hoc measures taken by countries like Cambodia and the Philippines have led to a partial displacement of organized crime groups, which have relocated their operations, particularly to regions within Myanmar. This shift has become notably prominent.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the trend of online betting and gambling, with a significant increase in online betting platforms and the use of cryptocurrency payments.

Technological advancements, such as mirror websites and third-party betting software, have made it easier to establish online casino operations with minimal technical expertise and capital, regardless of gambling laws in a given jurisdiction.

China’s enforcement actions against cross-border gambling

In 2020, Chinese authorities arrested over 75,000 suspects involved in illegal cross-border gambling, with at least 600 extradited to China with the cooperation of local authorities in Cambodia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

Chinese authorities also reported the dismantling of more than 2,260 online betting platforms and 1,160 betting promotion platforms in 2020, along with the closure of around 1,960 illegal payment platforms and underground banks while handling over 3,500 cross-border gambling cases.

In 2022, Chinese police investigated over 37,000 cases related to cross-border gambling.

There is clear evidence of a well-defined operational plan by these organized crime groups, which includes the recruitment of victims, execution of scams and fraud, and money laundering.

The fact that new scam compounds are continuously emerging in Southeast Asia points to the urgency of enhanced information sharing and responses to organized crime in the region.

Involvement of wealthy tycoon in illicit operations

The UNODC report sheds light on the key figures behind these criminal activities, with organized crime group leaders at the apex of the hierarchy, orchestrating these operations and forging alliances with government officials and affluent individuals.

They are responsible for the overall strategy and alliances with government officials and wealthy individuals.

The report underscored that some wealthy individuals have been implicated in cases of online scams, fraud, and trafficking in Southeast Asia. They may be involved in funding or supporting these illicit operations.

For example, a Chinese billionaire, She Zhijiang, was arrested in Thailand in 2022 and accused of running major online gambling rings across Asia, including Hong Kong, China; Taiwan PoC; China; Malaysia; Vietnam; and other countries.

Additionally, the report delves into the roles played by various key actors within these criminal operations.

They are: “scam directors” responsible for daily operations, controllers who manage trafficking victims through coercion, agents handling victim transportation and releases, recruiters convincing victims to participate, and recruitment agencies serving as intermediaries.

Transporters guiding victims across borders, and models serving as the face of scam calls, at times falling victim to exploitation themselves.

Locations of the scam compounds

The locations that are clearly hubs for online scams and fraud, and trafficking for forced criminality, are mainly in Cambodia, and Myanmar, as well as Lao PDR.

In Cambodia, the majority of scam compounds are concentrated in Sihanoukville and Phnom Penh, with notable complexes like the ten-skyscraper facility in Otres.

Other reported scam sites include Kandal, Phnom Penh, Koh Kong, Poipet, Pursat, and Kampot.

In response to increased media scrutiny and intense bilateral pressure from other Southeast Asia countries whose citizens were affected by trafficking for forced criminality, Cambodia launched a ‘crackdown’ on the scam operations in September 2022.

The stated objective was to effectively close down illegal online scam and fraud operations and secure the release the trafficking victims

The crackdown seems to have also led to organized crime operations spreading to other parts of Cambodia. Since late 2022, recruitment advertisements began listing new destinations, including Oddar Meanchey, O’Smach, and Pursat province.

In Myanmar, scam compounds are primarily located in Wa State, Myawaddy, Laukkaing Township, Kokang Shan State, and various other regions.

These compounds often inhabit casinos, resorts, hotels, office buildings, and residential developments.

They are fortified with measures like metal bars on windows and armed guards equipped with weapons and restraints to prevent victim escape and unauthorized entry.

Unlike Cambodia, in Myanmar, purpose-built structures are being constructed specifically for large-scale online scam and fraud operations, making it challenging to intervene and assist victims in more remote regions.

Figure 2: Locations of casinos and scam centres in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar

Note: The present map depicts locations of known casinos, reported or raided compounds related special zones in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar as reported by regional law enforcement authorities and may be subject to change given the evolving situation an ongoing law enforcement operations. Numerous other compounds have been reported by regional law enforcement but have not included as they remain under investigation. (Source: UNODC)

How ‘scam park’ bosses generate enormous profit

The UNODC report sheds light on how organized crime groups operating within the realm of online scams, encompassing investment scams, cryptocurrency fraud, and illegal gambling, primarily pursue financial gains.

According to the report, scam operations in one Southeast Asian country are estimated to generate a staggering US$7.5 and US$12.5 billion, or half the value of that country’s GDP.

“One group of trafficking victims can generate hundreds of thousands of US dollars in a week for traffickers,” the report noted.

Trafficking victims contribute significantly to these profits, generating hundreds to thousands of US dollars daily for the criminal groups.

Victims of online scams and fraud may lose varying amounts, with some individuals reporting losses in the millions of US dollars.

Organized crime groups also profit through extortion by demanding ransoms from victims’ families, ranging from US$3,000 to USS$30,000. Ransom amounts have seen a significant increase in Myanmar in 2023.

Furthermore, criminal groups profit from the sale of trafficking victims to other scam compounds or criminal organizations for various forms of exploitation.

These illicit proceeds are reinvested in criminal activities and may involve investments in advanced technology such as AI.

Criminal organizations also use these profits to bribe government officials and private sector actors, ensuring their operations remain relatively undisturbed and legitimized.

The remaining illicit profits are laundered through money transfers, legitimate businesses, and various investment avenues like cryptocurrency and properties, further undermining the rule of law and financial systems while strengthening criminal groups’ influence as significant investors in the region.

Comprehensive blueprint for combating organized scam crime in Southeast Asia

The UNODC policy report offers a comprehensive set of recommendations aimed at tackling the multifaceted challenges posed by organized crime in Southeast Asia.

These recommendations encompass a range of critical actions, including the creation or updating of bilateral Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) to effectively address the evolving nature of trafficking in persons for forced criminality.

To bolster victim rescue mechanisms, the report advocates the replacement of ad hoc rescue processes with standardized agreements designed for the initial identification and release of victims.

The UNODC further emphasizes the necessity of ensuring that all individuals who manage to escape or are released from scam compounds undergo a thorough victim screening process.

The report underscores the importance of providing immediate protection and support to presumed victims.

In addition, the report proposes the establishment of specialized units at the national level to coordinate responses to organized crime. It also encourages collaboration with technology companies to enhance investigations and address the evolving nature of criminal activities in the digital age.

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ASEAN nations unite with UNODC to combat organized crime and human trafficking in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asian nations, in partnership with UNODC, have initiated a groundbreaking strategy to combat organized crime and human trafficking.

A UN policy report has exposed the pervasive presence of these criminal groups in Myanmar’s border regions, making it challenging for law enforcement to intervene, while trafficking victims remain trapped in remote areas vulnerable to online scams.

Published

1 year ago

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27 September 2023

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BANGKOK, THAILAND: Southeast Asian nations, in collaboration with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), have launched a groundbreaking strategy aimed at tackling organized crime and human trafficking in the region.

The initiative, announced in the Thai capital, Bangkok, is set to target criminal activities primarily linked to casinos, while also addressing money laundering and cybercrime.

Officials from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), joined by China, and representatives from UNODC, unveiled the comprehensive plan of action.

The new plan aims to strengthen preventative measures and enhance the capabilities of law enforcement agencies to combat international organized crime and human trafficking on a regional scale.

“Trafficking in persons connected to casinos and scam operations run by organized crime has mushroomed across Southeast Asia, particularly in the Mekong” remarked Jeremy Douglas, UNODC Regional Representative to Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

“There is an urgent need for regional cooperation to address these increasingly integrated and interlinked crimes in the region, as well as the ecosystem they exist in.”

Human trafficking, often utilized to recruit victims into criminal activities, is just one facet of transnational organized crime, as highlighted in a policy report released by UNODC on Tuesday (26 Sep).

This criminal activity is closely associated with border casinos, large-scale money laundering operations, cybercrimes, and an array of other illicit offenses. The report also documented credible instances of torture and extortion within these criminal operations over the past year.

Profits generated by criminal organizations in the region have reached unprecedented levels, with illicit funds increasingly funneled through the regional casino industry and other cash-intensive businesses, including the surge in cryptocurrency usage.

“Organized crime groups are converging in the region where they see vulnerabilities,” Mr. Douglas commented.

Billions siphoned equal to half of a Nation’s GDP

He added that “operations against syndicates in some countries like the Philippines have caused a partial displacement, and we have seen criminals moving infrastructure into places where they see opportunity – basically where they expect they will be able to take advantage and not be held to account, to remote and border areas of the Mekong,” he said.

According to the report, scam operations in one Southeast Asian country are estimated to generate a staggering US$7.5 and US$12.5 billion, or half the value of that country’s GDP.

“One group of trafficking victims can generate hundreds of thousands of US dollars in a week for traffickers,” the report noted.

UN Policy Report highlights transnational crime gangs establishing remote bases in Myanmar

The UN’s policy report has shed light on the alarming presence of organized crime gangs operating in the border areas of Myanmar, adjacent to China.

These remote locations, often inaccessible to law enforcement, serve as operational hubs for criminal syndicates perpetrating online scams, leaving trafficking victims with scant chances of escape.

Powerful Chinese and Taiwanese criminal organizations, operating primarily in the Mekong region and the Philippines, have orchestrated a “scamdemic” resulting in billions of dollars being siphoned off through tactics that include romance scams, extortion, and investment pyramid schemes.

While certain crackdowns have been executed in Cambodia and the Philippines, these criminal groups are evolving and perfecting their fraudulent activities from fortified compounds located within the protective umbrella of ethnic rebel groups in the conflict-ridden terrain of Myanmar.

Locations of casinos and scam centres in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar (source: UN report)

In Myanmar, a significant hub for criminal activities has flourished in the Myawaddy region, situated just across a small river from the western Thai border town of Mae Sot.

Another network of compounds stretches along Myanmar’s eastern border with China, extending northward through Shan State, passing through the special administrative area of Wa State, and reaching Kokang, which shares a border with China’s Yunnan province.

Transnational crime syndicates operating openly and forming unusual alliances

The report has found that, rather than operating in the shadows, transnational organised crime groups there can be remarkably open, in some cases presenting themselves as legitimate business entities or even philanthropic organisations.

Some organised crime chiefs have developed public alliances with influential business leaders and officials.

Co-chaired by the Philippines and UNODC, the new plan is finalised and will be tabled by the Philippines at the next ASEAN Senior Officials Meeting on Transnational Crime.

“Addressing this issue in one or a few countries’ domestic contexts, while necessary and welcome, will not have a significant impact,” warned Rebecca Miller, UNODC Regional Advisor on Human Trafficking and Migrant Smuggling.

“The plan the region has agreed to, includes practical and targeted actions to address transnational crime comprehensively and strategically.  Progress is being made, but more needs to be done and UNODC stands ready to support,” she added.

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