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Why an election in September is most likely

Worsening economic conditions not a handicap for the PAP in an election.

Published

16 years ago

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Jason Lee

In recent weeks, a hot topic that is buzzing at coffee shops and online forums is whether a general election (GE) will be held soon?

In my view, the answer is a clear cut YES. The next question is: When?

While some have argued that the ruling People’s Action Party is likely to call a GE as early as March 2009, I do not think an election will be held within the next six months – primarily because of three key factors.

Off-Budget measures: Need to use current reserves for new initiatives

For one, the PAP government certainly knows it has to introduce off-Budget measures later this year to help Singaporeans and businesses cope with the economic downturn. With the US economy expected to worsen in the next few months, the PAP’s $20.5 billion Budget would have to be enhanced with more ‘sweetening’ initiatives that would be felt directly by the ordinary man-in-the-street.

Besides the political need to offer such ‘sweets’ to the electorate before asking for their ballots, one noteworthy factor is such that if the PAP calls for an election before introducing off-Budget measures, all the reserves accumulated by the government up to the election date would be locked up and treated as past reserves. Hence it means the new government would have nothing in its ‘reserves chest’ to pay for any new schemes which would be introduced to help Singaporeans cope with the recession.

Of course the PAP can always seek the President’s permission to dip into past reserves again, but would it want to do so and raise controversies and debates for the second time in less than a year?

National Day Rally: ‘Uniting’ the nation

What better opportunity to ‘unite’ the nation and ask for their support (read: mandate) than the annual National Day Rally? Yes, I believe it is highly possible that the Prime Minister would utilise this year’s NDR – which I reckon would be scheduled on 16 August – to rally the nation. Beyond such talk of how unity is crucial during difficult times, I would of course expect more ‘carrots’ to be dangled in front of the nation – with a possible objective of ‘sweetening’ the ground which is likely to have soured significantly by that time.

APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting (14-15 November 2009)

Taking into consideration the above factors, it means the GE is likely to be held after mid-August.

But I would also rule out the fourth quarter of the year because of the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting (AELM) which would be held from 14-15 November.

That means the possible window for an election starts in mid-August and ends around mid-October (on the assumption that the Singapore authorities require a month for their logistical preparations for the AELM).

12 September 2009?

Traditionally, most GEs were held during school holidays, for the convenience factor since many schools were used as polling stations – even though the last GE on May 6, 2006 did not take place during the school holidays.

This time round, I am expecting Polling Day to be scheduled during the school holidays in September: 12 September 2009, Saturday, to be exact.

One key factor behind my humble guess is that the ruling party’s candidates can ‘leverage’ on the National Day Rally (read: goodies and carrots offered to Singaporeans) to boost their support levels – especially during campaigning.

That Singapore would host the upcoming AELM is also likely to be a political tool – as the ruling elite can ‘solicit’ for more votes by urging the electorate to demonstrate to the world that Singapore has a stable government backed by the people’s ‘mandate’– a ‘pre-requisite’ which would enhance “investors’ confidence in Singapore”.

While I personally do not believe that Ms Ho Ching would embark on a political career, it is interesting to note that she would step down as CEO of Temasek Holdings on October 1. Wouldn’t an election date in September provide good timing if she indeed makes a transition from the corporate world to the political arena?

Other factors deemed less significant: Lack of new faces and worsening economic conditions

The lack of new faces on the ground should count for little when we ponder over whether a GE would be held this year. Since when has ground experience been a pre-requisite for the PAP when it fields new candidates? Yes, there had been cases of some Young PAP members who were fielded as candidates but are we sure all the new candidates in the last election had worked the ground for a significant period before they were introduced as new candidates?

Since our electoral system is based largely on the GRC concept, does it matter whether a new candidate works hard at the ground level before he is fielded? Just send him or her into a GRC (which is always the case anyway) – ideally anchored by a heavyweight minister – and we would all agree that his lack of experience at the constituency level is no obstacle to his political career and aspirations!

Another key factor that has been debated is whether the PAP is willing to take a risk and wait for another few months before calling for a snap poll. The argument goes along the line that should the economy worsen in the next few months, the PAP could lose more votes than if the elections were to be held today.

However, I would argue that worsening economic conditions (read: more retrenchments) are not necessarily a handicap for the PAP. It could in fact be an ‘ace card’ for the ruling regime.

Look around us today – the queues at shopping malls, the crowds at travel fairs and car road shows etc. I reckon it is reasonable to state that the full impact of the global crisis has not been felt by many Singaporeans on an individual basis. This is perhaps understandable since many of us still hold a job. Nevertheless, economists and political leaders have already warned of tougher times (read: more retrenchments, possibilities of pay cuts) in the next few months ahead. Hence, the PAP’s likely message during campaigning – that it is THE party to lead Singapore to recovery – would certainly sound more ‘persuasive’ in the later part of the year (as compared to now).

Considering that the elections need not be held until February 2012, such speculation of a snap poll seems a little premature. However, in view of the above factors, I am placing my bet on September 12, 2009 as the date Singaporeans elect their next government. Any takers?

——

Picture from wantunn

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Indonesia

Miss Universe cuts ties with Indonesia chapter after harassment allegations

The Miss Universe Organization severs ties with Indonesia franchise due to harassment claims. Malaysia edition canceled.

Women allege body checks before pageant. Investigation launched. Safety prioritized.

Indonesia winner to compete in November finale. Height requirement controversy.

Published

1 year ago

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14 August 2023

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WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES — The Miss Universe Organization has cut ties with its Indonesia franchise, it announced days after allegations of sexual harassment, and will cancel an upcoming Malaysia edition.

In the complaint, more than a half dozen women said all 30 finalists for Miss Universe Indonesia were unexpectedly asked to strip for a supposed body check for scars and cellulite two days before the pageant’s crowning ceremony in Jakarta.

Their lawyer said Tuesday that five of the women had their pictures taken.

“In light of what we have learned took place at Miss Universe Indonesia, it has become clear that this franchise has not lived up to our brand standards, ethics, or expectations,” the US-based Miss Universe Organization posted Saturday night on social media site X, formerly known as Twitter.

It said that it had “decided to terminate the relationship with its current franchise in Indonesia, PT Capella Swastika Karya, and its National Director, Poppy Capella.”

It thanked the contestants for their bravery in coming forward and added that “providing a safe place for women” was the organization’s priority.

Jakarta police spokesman Trunoyudo Wisnu Andiko said Tuesday that an investigation into the women’s complaint has been launched.

The Indonesia franchise also holds the license for Miss Universe Malaysia, where there will no longer be a competition this year, according to the New York-based parent organizer.

In a lengthy statement posted to Instagram, Indonesia franchise director Capella denied involvement in any body checks.

“I, as the National Director and as the owner of the Miss Universe Indonesia license, was not involved at all and have never known, ordered, requested or allowed anyone who played a role and participated in the process of organizing Miss Universe Indonesia 2023 to commit violence or sexual harassment through body checking,” she wrote.

She added that she is against “any form of violence or sexual harassment.”

The Jakarta competition was held from 29 July to 3 August to choose Indonesia’s representative to the 2023 Miss Universe contest, and was won by Fabienne Nicole Groeneveld.

Miss Universe said it would make arrangements for her to compete in the finale, scheduled for November in El Salvador.

This year’s Indonesia pageant also came under fire for announcing a “significant change in this (year’s) competition guidelines” with the elimination of its minimum height requirement after it had crowned a winner.

In its statement, the Miss Universe Organization said it wanted to “make it extremely clear that there are no measurements such as height, weight, or body dimensions required to join a Miss Universe pageant worldwide.”

— AFP

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Malaysia

A Perodua service centre in Kuantan, Malaysia went viral for its strict dress code, Perodua responds

A dress code for vehicle servicing? A Malaysian car brand’s service centre dress code signage has puzzled netizens, raising queries about the need for attire rules during a routine service.

The manufacturer responded with an official statement after a flurry of comments, seeking to clarify and apologize.

Published

1 year ago

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10 August 2023

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MALAYSIA: A dress code signage positioned at a service centre belonging to a prominent Malaysian car brand has sparked bewilderment among Malaysian netizens, who question the necessity of adhering to attire guidelines for a simple vehicle servicing.

The signage explicitly delineates clothing items that are deemed unsuitable, including sleeveless tops, short skirts, abbreviated pants, and distressed jeans.

The car manufacturer swiftly found itself flooded with comments from both inquisitive and irked Malaysian netizens. This surge in online activity prompted the company to issue an official statement aimed at clarifying the situation and extending an apology.

In a post that gained significant traction on the social media platform, politician Quek Tai Seong of Pahang State, Malaysia, shared an image to Facebook on Monday (7 Aug).

The image showcased a dress code sign prominently displayed at a Perodua Service Centre in Kuantan. Within the post, Quek posed the question: “Is this dress code applicable nationwide, or is it specific to this branch?”

The signage reads, “All customers dealing with Perodua Service Kuantan 1, Semambu, are requested to dress modestly and appropriately.”

Adding visual clarity to these guidelines, the sign features illustrative graphics that explicitly outline clothing items deemed unacceptable, including sleeveless tops, short skirts, short pants, and ripped jeans.

Delineating the specifics of the dress code, the signage stipulates that male visitors are expected to don shirts accompanied by neckties, opt for long pants, and wear closed shoes.

Conversely, female visitors are advised to don long-sleeved shirts, full-length skirts, and closed-toe footwear.

Perodua’s dress code sparks online uproar

Following the rapid spread of the post, Perodua’s official Facebook page found itself inundated with comments from both intrigued and frustrated Malaysian netizens, all seeking clarifications about the newly surfaced dress code policy.

Amidst the flurry of comments, numerous incensed netizens posed pointed questions such as, “What is the rationale behind the introduction of such regulations by the management? We demand an explanation.”

Another netizen expressed their dissatisfaction, arguing against the necessity of the rule and urging Perodua to take inspiration from the practices of other 4S (Sales, Service, Spare Parts, and Survey) automotive dealerships.

A concerned Facebook user chimed in, advocating for a more lenient stance, asserting that attempting to dictate customers’ clothing choices might not be in the company’s best interest.

Someone also commented in an angry tone, “Oi what is this? Going there for car service, not interview or working, right.”

As the discourse unfolded, it became evident that while some inquiries carried genuine weight, others chose to inject humor into the situation, playfully remarking, “If I wanted to buy a Myvi, I should buy or rent a formal attire first.”

“I sell economy rice at a hawker centre, I have never worn a long sleeve shirt and a tie… I guess I will not buy a Perodua car then.”

“I guess they will not serve those who wear short pants.”

Perodua addresses dress code controversy

As reported by Chinese media outlet Sin Chew Daily News, the manager of Kuantan’s Perodua Service Centre had acknowledged that the images on the dress code signage were misleading.

In response, the manager divulged that discussions had transpired with the head office, leading to the prompt removal of the signage to prevent any further misconceptions.

The manager clarifies, “We do encourage visitors to adhere to the dress etiquette, but we won’t go to the extent of restricting their choice of attire.”

He also revealed that currently, no complaints have been directly received from the public.

However, feedback from certain customers was relayed through Perodua’s agents.

Perodua also released an official statement by chief operating officer JK Rozman Jaffar on Wednesday (9 Aug) regarding the dress code on their official Facebook page.

The statement stated the dress code etiquette is not aligned with their official guidelines and they are currently conducting an official investigation on the matter followed by corrective measures to avoid the same incident from happening.

Perodua also extends its apologies for any inconvenience caused.

 

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