Most Taiwanese would resist Chinese invasion even without US support, survey finds

Nearly 60 percent of Taiwanese adults said they would resist a Chinese military invasion even if the United States did not intervene militarily, according to a new survey released Thursday by Academia Sinica, the island's foremost research institution.

The findings come as Taiwan faces sustained military pressure from China and navigating uncertainty over Washington's long-term security commitment under the administration of President Donald Trump.

The American Portrait Project survey, now in its sixth wave, was conducted from 20 to 26 January 2026, via telephone interviews with 1,206 adults registered as residents in Taiwan.

Results were presented at an online press conference organised by Academia Sinica in collaboration with the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Willingness to resist

Respondents were divided into three randomised groups and asked about their willingness to resist at all costs under different scenarios.

Among those asked whether they would resist a Chinese invasion without any US military assistance, 58.7 percent said they would, including 41.2 percent who said "definitely yes" and 17.5 percent "probably yes." About 36.2 percent said they would not resist, with 21.7 percent "definitely not" and 14.5 percent "probably not." The remaining 5.1 percent declined to answer.

When the same question was posed with US military intervention factored in, the proportion willing to resist shifted only marginally, to 56.5 percent, comprising 34.4 percent "definitely yes" and 22.1 percent "probably yes." A total of 34.8 percent said they would not fight, while 8.7 percent declined to answer.

A third group was asked the question without any conditions attached — that is, simply whether they would resist if China attacked. Of those respondents, 53.4 percent said they would, while 37.5 percent said they would not.

Pan Hsin-hsin, an associate research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of Sociology, said that overall willingness to resist at all costs is driven primarily by supporters of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), while supporters of the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) lower the overall proportion.

Pan noted that DPP supporters' willingness to defend Taiwan remained constant regardless of whether or not the United States deployed forces — a finding that suggests their resolve is not contingent on external support.

Declining trust in the United States

Wu Wen-chin, a research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of Political Science, said the latest data revealed a marked erosion in the credibility of the United States among Taiwanese respondents.

Only approximately 34 percent of respondents viewed the United States as a credible country, compared with around 45 percent in 2021 — a fall of roughly 11 percentage points over four years.

Wu noted that Taiwanese respondents continue to view the United States and China very differently in terms of trustworthiness, with the United States still rated considerably higher than China.

However, the proportion of respondents who considered China credible rose from approximately 11 percent in 2025 to 17 percent in the current survey.

Defence spending and US arms purchases

On the question of Taiwan's defence budget, just over half of all respondents — 53.5 percent — supported raising it to 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Some 31.1 percent opposed the proposal.

A separate but related question tested whether framing mattered. Half the sample were asked whether they supported raising the defence budget to 3 percent of GDP in response to a US request. Support in that framing was slightly lower, suggesting that respondents are somewhat more receptive to the policy when it is presented as an autonomous decision rather than an externally driven one.

Support for purchasing weapons from the United States was substantially stronger, with 69.5 percent of respondents in favour.

On the broader question of how different factors affect deterrence, a plurality of respondents — around 50 percent — said that an increase in Taiwan's defence budget would not change the likelihood of China launching a military attack. Of those who perceived an effect, opinion was split between those who believed higher spending would deter China and those who thought it might provoke a stronger response.

Survey methodology

The survey was conducted by the Election Study Centre at National Chengchi University on behalf of Academia Sinica researchers James Lee, Hsin-hsin Pan, Wen-chin Wu, and Chien-huei Wu. Respondents were drawn from Taiwanese adults aged 20 and above via a combination of landline and mobile telephone interviews.

Landline sampling used a probability proportional to size method, with samples stratified by county and municipality. Mobile numbers were generated using a framework based on data published by Taiwan's National Communications Commission (NCC) in January 2026.

Raw samples were weighted using an iterative raking procedure to correct for deviations in gender, age, education, and geographic distribution relative to population benchmarks drawn from the Ministry of the Interior's 2024 population yearbook.

The final weighted sample reflects the national population across six geographic regions, five age cohorts, and five education levels. The survey carries a 95 percent confidence level with a maximum margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.82 percentage points.